Think it's time pay a visit to an old friend. "Spinners and Losers" special episode of The Thick of It for me tonight.
Westminster Politics
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In the latest episode of the United Hour Podcast, Nik (@Rood) is joined by CEO Duncan Drasdo and Financial Director Andy Green from the Manchester United Supporters Trust for a special episode on all things behind the scenes at Old Trafford including a brief history of MUST and their aims today, views on INEOS and Sir Jim Ratcliffe so far, and the Old Trafford regeneration.
Handy little quick guide to how to elect another tory wastrel taken from the Sunday Telegraph -
In brief | How Conservative leaders are selected
The process is instigated by either the incumbent resigning or the Parliamentary Party passing a vote of no confidence.
Such a vote is automatically triggered if the 1922 Committee receives demands for new leadership carrying the
signatures of 15 per cent of Conservative MPs (currently 48).
The Conservative Party then uses a twofold system to select a new leader:
The Conservative Chief Whip (currently Julian Smith) receives nominations from party members.
In brief | How Conservative leaders are selected
The process is instigated by either the incumbent resigning or the Parliamentary Party passing a vote of no confidence.
Such a vote is automatically triggered if the 1922 Committee receives demands for new leadership carrying the
signatures of 15 per cent of Conservative MPs (currently 48).
The Conservative Party then uses a twofold system to select a new leader:
The Conservative Chief Whip (currently Julian Smith) receives nominations from party members.
- If just one MP is nominated, they are automatically installed as party leader.
- If multiple names are put forward, a ballot of Conservative MPs is held. The lowest-polling name is removed and another ballot is held. This continues on subsequent Tuesdays and Thursdays until just two nominees remain.
- These two nominees are then put to a ballot of the wider Conservative Party membership, with the winner becoming the new Conservative leader.
This is the man who could be leading our country. It's a good thread.
Who better to inspire confidence in a challenging time than the bloke who legged it at the first chance during the last challenging time?
So apparently current numbers of confirmed backers are:
Gove - 18
Raab - 16
Johnson - 14
Hunt - 13
Javid - 8
Hancock - 6
Mcvey - 5
Other - 7
Gove - 18
Raab - 16
Johnson - 14
Hunt - 13
Javid - 8
Hancock - 6
Mcvey - 5
Other - 7
This could take bloody ages, given half the party seems to be putting themselves forward.
Baker will get probably 40 or so votes from the erg... Though ultimately they will switch to Johnson or raab depending who promices the hardest brexit... Probably Johnson
Yes... Though it is likley we will get say 10 candidates I suspect a lot would drop out around 2nd or 3rd round when it was clear they couldn't win but could still trade their support for a key role
I'd be surprised if it took more than a couple of weeks in total t(to get to a final two) though in theory it could easily drag out for a couple of months
There is also a possibility let's say the last 3 are raab gove and Johnson that if Johnson gets to the final two the other one would withdraw for the sake of party unity (i.e. they know they would get smashed in a ballot of members) but gove and raab would of course be more than happy to go against each other (as they think they can win)... It's all about the tactical voting of the ABB brigade (Anyone But Boris) and if they can keep him from the final two
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Tories going to tear themselves apart. Popcorn at the ready.
I just hope it goes to the members. Pushes the party further to the right and off a cliff.
I do wonder if Boris does not win if he might not bubmle off in a huff and join up with farrage
I don't think they are in a particular hurry.
You realise this person's gonna be PM, and we don't have to have another GE for another three years, right?
If the Tories can't get no deal through parliament or crash us out of the EU with no deal, wouldn't this make a GE very likely sooner?
Maybe? But the US has made me very wary of wanting severely right wing people to win just because they seem easier to beat in an election, particularly if it's reliant on Tory MPs and the DUP to bring that election about.
Can't see that happening , the second part anyway .Two big egos together what could go wrong.
Won't happen. Boris a remainer at heart and has used Brexit as a way to advance his career to no. 10. As horrible as the man is, I don't get the impression he dislikes people based upon the colour of their skin.
Course he doesn't
Tbf it does seem like some of the less limely candidates, eg Williamson, are now backing others rather than staking their own claim.
And us with it, come 31 October.
That's the fear. Clock runs down, no deal by default and people genuinely think Boris or Raab have the brains to find a way through it.
Hope Hammond can torpedo both.
A strong Opposition Leader would make mincemeat of Johnson, Gove, Raab or Hammond. First two are liars and bumblers, the second two are pure bodgers. Johnson does his homework on nothing and like Trump has attention deficit disorder and can't remember what he had for dinner the day before.
But we don't have a strong Opposition Leader.
Yes... Equally a New pm very often gets a boost in the polls... Chuck in the calls for indy ref2... Brexit party... Labour actually having to make up a brexit policy and potentially libs ***** and greens Forming a remain alliance though and with that much uncertainty you might see them trying to hold together the coalition with the dup? ... Not sure if that will be viable or not to be honest
If Boris gets in I suspect even outright liberal Remain Tory MP's will end up backing a No Deal to save the party. Don't underestimate how much they desperately love the party and despise the idea of Corbyn ever holding power.
Hammond and Greening both more or less saying they'll bring down any leader who goes for no deal. Could be massive because i think they'll have the numbers behind them to aid Labour in a VONC.
It's all a matter of timing though as any GE would need to be triggered by August at the latest. Be good to see Boris face a VONC in his first week
It's all a matter of timing though as any GE would need to be triggered by August at the latest. Be good to see Boris face a VONC in his first week
Hammond and Greening both more or less saying they'll bring down any leader who goes for no deal. Could be massive because i think they'll have the numbers behind them to aid Labour in a VONC.
It's all a matter of timing though as any GE would need to be triggered by August at the latest. Be good to see Boris face a VONC in his first week
When push comes to shove and it looks like going against Boris might actually remove the party from power they will probably cave. See someone like Mundell in Scotland who casually threatens resignation every time the party does something anti-Scotland while ultimately never actually standing down. Or Davidson who threatened back in the day to separate from the UK branch if Boris ever got him but who will, again, cave when push comes to shove.
Yup. Ditto Rudd and her "One Nation" group. Sandwiched between Corbyn and Farage, they'll take the devil they know every time.
A Tory voting to bring down a Tory government and risking a Socialist?Hammond and Greening both more or less saying they'll bring down any leader who goes for no deal. Could be massive because i think they'll have the numbers behind them to aid Labour in a VONC.
It's all a matter of timing though as any GE would need to be triggered by August at the latest. Be good to see Boris face a VONC in his first week
Probably the case for most of them aye as there's little backbone in politics but i do think you'll see some go Change UK and some just independent until a new leader takes over.
The remainers won't exactly be welcome in a Boris government especially Hammond. I know I'm being optimistic though
I know their situation is bleaker now but just look at 2016. It was assumed the party were in disarray after tearing themselves after over the referendum. Within weeks they'd all united behind May while Labour spent the rest of the summer tearing themselves apart. Remainers accepted Brexit had to happen and Brexiteers decided she was a decent vehicle from that.
We'll get Clarke saying this isn't the party he knows, we'll get Hammond saying it's economic recklessness, John Major will be wheeled out to say he probably wouldn't vote for them in 2022, but when push comes to shove it's best to emphasise the Tories will prioritise survival.
Parliament is in recess from July isn't it... So any voc needs to be by then... And the leadership contest might not even be finished by thenHammond and Greening both more or less saying they'll bring down any leader who goes for no deal. Could be massive because i think they'll have the numbers behind them to aid Labour in a VONC.
It's all a matter of timing though as any GE would need to be triggered by August at the latest. Be good to see Boris face a VONC in his first week
Defaut no deal looks like
The other three are all shite. I only mentioned Hammond cos he's no interest in running for PM, knows whoever wins will sack him, so by all accounts he is just trying to scupper Johnson and Raab by highlighting how economically disastrous both will be.
I keep getting Hammond mixed up with Hunt. Both Weasels.
I stand corrected.I don't mind Hammond, but with the giant caveat that it's relative to the rest of that front bench. At least he is realistic about what no deal means.
Publicly declared MP backers so far...
It might be possible to keep Boris out of the final two at this rate... Raab Vs gove is pretty uninspiring stuff though
Dominic Raab 20
Michael Gove 19
Boris Johnson 15
Jeremy Hunt 14
Sajid Javid 8
Matt Hancock 6
Esther McVey 5
Mark Harper 3
Andrea Leadsom 2
It might be possible to keep Boris out of the final two at this rate... Raab Vs gove is pretty uninspiring stuff though
Dominic Raab 20
Michael Gove 19
Boris Johnson 15
Jeremy Hunt 14
Sajid Javid 8
Matt Hancock 6
Esther McVey 5
Mark Harper 3
Andrea Leadsom 2
14 for Jeremy Hunt. How do these people function.
Who is the best / most likely remain leaning candidate for the Tories?
Corporal Jones from Dad's Army.
Boris will win it easily I think. The tories will be trying to miraculously come back from the dead. Boris will either achieve it for them, or will sink them without trace.
All the others have no chance of saving the party at the next election.
All the others have no chance of saving the party at the next election.
I'm not so sure. I'd agree if they had a similar selection process as Labour, but I think the majority of MPs who aren't supporting Raab, Johnson, Mcvey etc will be voting against them at pretty much all costs.
I can see the majority of remain MPs backing Hunt and the majority of moderate leave or remain but "respecting the result" voting for Gove.
I can't instantly see Johnson or Raab getting the support of 107 MPs (even after one is knocked out). It's why I think Gove is a good bet at 6/1 as if it were him against Hunt he'd win comfortably.
He's well respected in political circles in truth. He's also justifiably regarded as one of (if not the) most intelligent people in politics.
The tory MPs will now be considering what is more important for them personally right now. EU membership or being wiped out and jobless?
Leaving the EU and keeping their jobs will probably be preferred to staying in the EU and losing their jobs, and watching Corbyn clean up.
I think it's highly likely that Boris will change and mobilise the cabinet, and install popular characters into his cabinet like Jacob Rees Mogg, and go on the offensive to win back confidence from the voters.