Calling ThehatchetMan a secret Tory is hilarious, sorry 
Westminster Politics
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In the latest episode of the United Hour Podcast, Nik (@Rood) is joined by CEO Duncan Drasdo and Financial Director Andy Green from the Manchester United Supporters Trust for a special episode on all things behind the scenes at Old Trafford including a brief history of MUST and their aims today, views on INEOS and Sir Jim Ratcliffe so far, and the Old Trafford regeneration.
It was more an exagerstion to those who suggest labour are where they are due to Starmers actions. I even said Lord Buckethead as a leader would probably poll as well too. Because labour are only polling as they are due to take your pick of:
Covid fraud
Chancellor fraud
Lobbying fraud
Brexit failures
NHS failures
Pincher by name pincher by nature
PartyGate
Whatsapp Leaks
And many more gifts on a plate for starmer
Labour aren't polling as they are due to Starmers purge of the left (they've dropped in polls since) or his non existent union support or his plans to focus on graffiti and petty crime. Actually it feels like every time starmer takes an action that labour poll worse.
Of course though none of us will truly know the answer. But given most of labours gains are through tory mishaps, I believe even corbyn would be leading the polls right now. And if Starmer was feared by the right wing as much then i'm sure they'd have put more focus on Starmers links to the Jimmy Saville case. Something BJ tried a few times and something I know is bs (just like alot of the corbyn stuff) but it didn't stop the media when it came to Corbyn.
Calling ThehatchetMan a secret Tory is hilarious, sorry
I can sort of see why some may say it because when it comes to politics there's alot of tribalism within the 2 big uk parties and a feeling of "you're either with us or against us".
But disliking Starmer doesn't mean I suddenly love tories. I'd pick Starmers labour over them every day because we desperately need change. I just don't have confidence in Starmer making the changes we need.
Alot can change in 18 months and I could easily be wrong. I bloody well hope I am.
They’ve been copying trump tactics since day 1. I think I said it about 4 years ago. Blatant. Such a shower of gobshites out for themselves. And yet here we are arguing about Labour. It’s why the Tories get in every bloody time because people get wrapped up in Labour stories. Why is it always knock the opposition rather than keep the pressure on those in government? I don’t get it
First bold part I can't agree with you more.
Second part I disagree with, when some of the main points of campaigning, if you can call it that, is on closing tax loopholes exploited by the top 1% and by removing the tax exemption from Fee Paying Schools. That's going after a big element of the establishment I would have thought...
1. Those polls were taken around or just after the disastrous Truss budget. The Tories have changed leaders, done a couple of budgets since then and pulled back a few points as a result. Corbyn's presence in the party is immaterial to this kind of polling, he's yesterday's man (and kicking him out of the party underlines this).
2. The Labour lead is still enormous - it's still a landslide majority of ~138!
3. I expect the Labour lead to fall further just through the normal forces of political gravity, nobody would expect them to win a majority of 250+. But so far the Tories are still polling at around 30%, their core support. They are nowhere near having a broad enough appeal to win those centre ground votes that they need, and that Labour seems to have bedded in.
So according to those numbers, Labour are still on track for a Blair style landslide while the Tories have only firmed up their core support. And the problem with that is...?
No, survey data. An Opinion Poll done just after the election found that 43% of people who didn't vote Labour cited the leadership as the reason.
Brilliant, thanks for that. Feck me, I bet the trains ran on time too.
So 43% of people who didn't vote Labour blamed the leader. Wonder how many of that 43% also vote tory.
You're the one calling corbyn a cancer though that made the party unelectable.
But according to a yougov poll on Milliband, his results were even worse:
"The YouGov poll showed that 60% of those questioned felt Ed Miliband was "not up to the job" of being PM, compared to 20% who said he was. By contrast, more thought Cameron was up to the job (43%) than did not (39%).
Ed Miliband was judged weak by 59% and strong by just 13%, while Cameron was seen as strong by 37% and weak by 33%."
So using your own vocabulary. That would mean Milliband was an even bigger "cancer" and left the party even less electable. And that Corbyn inherited a much worse party than Starmer...
Opinium also did a large poll on election day where they published this:
"Despite Labour’s attempt to shift the narrative away from Brexit over the course of their campaign, Boris Johnson will have his Brexit election. A third (33%) will go to the polls tomorrow basing their vote on Brexit, while only 23% intend to vote based on the NHS. By comparison, this time in 2017, voting intention based on Brexit and the NHS was equal, at 19%."
Looking at the data from the poll also shows that for 70% of voters who indicated they would vote Conservative, their stance on Brexit was a main reason.
Given that almost every seat Labour lost in 2019 was a leave voting constituency, the idea that Brexit was not the main driver of Labour's collapse in 2019 is fanciful at best.
Now I am not saying many voters were not put off by him after he was monstered by the media for several years... but the idea that Labour's collapse in 2019 was more down to him personally, rather than the party's Brexit stance putting off leave voters is revisionist nonsense.
1. Pleased to see you agree that labour are polling as they are mainly due to the torys actions rather than anything starmer has done.
2. Still 18 months away though and the longer the tories steady the ship then more than likely that lead will get narrower. As it already has done as per your point 1.
I've no issue with it as I still prefer starmer over tories. My worries are what comes after the election and if the changes we need aren't delivered then we could very easily go back to another decade of tories.
And I'm not confident that Starmer has what it takes to do what is needed. But I hope you can quote me in 2 years and prove me wrong. That would be the best scenario.
How are you figuring out a 138 seat majority from those numbers?
Playing with this tool here, it's quite fun. I'm not trying to be scientific with it though, so don't hold me to every %.
Nice to see that there's a 100% chance of a Labour hold in my constituency according to that website. It is a pretty safe Labour area to be fair although in the last GE the BBC had it down as a Conservative gain which was a bit shocking for me. Labour ended up winning by 11,000 votes so it wasn't even close.
Probably quite a few... which is the point! Under our FPTP system, Labour needed (& needs) Tory voters to switch to them. You can't have a leader / party who actively repels them. You just can't!
Well, look you said those who blamed Corbyn (or more accurately, Corbynism), were peddling propaganda. I just gave you data. But here's more and here's more. More. And another MORI poll pointing out he was always electorally unpopular.
Regarding Miliband, he wasn't;t a great choice but you could view his result as a continuation of the post Brown decline in labour's popularity, losing 26 seats vs the previous election.
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There's definitely more than one view on that. Brexit was clearly a factor but so was the leadership (and the manifesto). From that poll:
- Among those who did vote for Labour in 2017 but did not in 2019 it was broadly the same story, with 37% citing Mr Corbyn, while only 21% said it was over their stance on Brexit.
- For those who defected to the Conservatives this time around, leaving the EU was a higher factor at 31%. But the issue still trailed well behind the party’s leadership, which polled at 45%.
- Labour defectors were most likely to say they switched because they did not want Mr Corbyn to be prime minister, did not believe Labour would be able to deliver on their promises, no longer thought Labour represented people like them, and wanted to get Brexit done.
- Mr Corbyn was a major reason for Labour's loss of support. Former Labour voters in focus groups criticised what they saw as his weakness, indecision, lack of patriotism, apparent terrorist sympathies, failure to deal with antisemitism, outdated and excessively left-wing worldview, and obvious unsuitability to lead the country
Anyway, enough of Corbyn. Yesterday's man, yesterday's problem.
Interesting will have a play around with that later to see. I don't think it would be that high on a gut feel, I always understood conventional wisdom was a 10-11% lead was needed in the polls for a slim majority so 14% being such a big swing doesn't feel right. Think it must be lacking some of the same assumptions on campaign swing, turnout etc.
Personally I think Labour are danger of it slipping to around 8-10% and we'll see a very close election. Unless they make advances in Scotland in which case it'll be an easy majority.
Yeah, there might be more than one view. But like you, they would be wrong.
I think it is partly explained by a lot of Tory seats having a 10-14% majority over Labour, so a small shift in the total vote (assuming uniform swing) will lead to a big difference in the total Labour majority.
It seems completely messed up that suella seems to be completely fine with throwing ethnic minorities under the bus and green lighting racist behaviour, I still believe her and sunak are puppets for someone working behind the scenes pulling their strings
Yeah his name rhymes with Shubert Burdoch.
Not sure if a serious post but I actually agree with your sentiments here a bit.
If you look into the tory parties ethnic minorities it does feel like many of them are simply puppets. The amount of minorities theyve had on their cabinets in recent years is hugely disproportionate in contrast to the number in the party.
It sometimes feels like by having ethnic minorities pushing some of these agendas that they and their supporters can push the "it's not racist" message due to who is heading them up.
Anyway a number of months ago I took a deeper dive into some of the minorities in the tory party. Suella Braverman contested seats in the past and failed. She then got shoehorned into farham which has always voted tory.
Sunak again was brought up in the south, Southampton I think? Has never had any ties to Yorkshire as far as I'm aware. But was shoehorned into a seat up there which again has only ever voted tory.
It feels a bit like their minorities are very carefully selected and then moved to constituencies miles from where they were brought up simply because they're safe seats which allow them to get these individuals into the commons.
Especially in Suellas case where she failed in Leicester and Bexhill before then being moved to one of the safest possible seats. Surely you'd want your strongest candidates in those seats or conservatives with a connection to the local area. Not someone who was twice rejected by the public.
And worst of all they all try to portray themselves as rag to rises too as well as the mainstream press. The BBC love referencing Zahawai as some sort of Iraq refugee rags to riches. But his grandfather was the governer of iraqs central bank as well as a former minister of trade in the country.
Suella also comes from wealth being born in Mauritius. With wealthy parents and an aunt who was the former Mauritian high commissioner to London.
Patel is another example. Shoehorned into Nottingham and loses the election. She was then moved to a prospective candidate "A List" and given a safe seat in Witham.
None of these people were truly elected by the people. They were simply placed in positions where it would be harder to lose than win.
So going back to your point. I agree with the sentiment. Not sure if they're necessarily puppets but they've been carefully selected and placed into power by the tories for a reason.
Well, convince me then, FFS.
It’s the same reason 30p Lee Anderson is in the position he’s in - he ticks the Tory Party ‘working class’ box.
In a shocking indictment, he is the textbook definition of what the story Party THINKS a working class person is; having workt down t’pit, just wants a pint wi’mates and hates Johnny Foreigner. So by getting him in, saying the shit he does, as soon as anyone goes to question him, you get accused of ‘attacking the working class silent majority’.
SIGH.
At least this Labour cabinet have integrity and are sticking to their senitments.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2013/oct/12/labour-benefits-tories-labour-rachel-reeves-welfare
In the words of rachel reeves to benefit claiments. "labour is not for you"
Yvette cooper probably rubbing her hands in glee too.
FFS
https://news.sky.com/story/more-tha...l-in-a-week-highest-so-far-this-year-12855354
More than 1,100 migrant crossing in the last week. Which has hardly been the calmest weather.
Isn't it great when a plan works out as intended.
More than 1,100 migrant crossing in the last week. Which has hardly been the calmest weather.
Isn't it great when a plan works out as intended.
When you can't win for trying!
Both go: You're trying to overshadow the coronation!
One goes: You're depriving the King of a chance to see his grandkiids!
Just never mind the death threats.
Dan Wootton is pond scum. An absolute disaster of a human being.
I think it fair game to point out the vast amounts the Tories are losing in F&E in the benefits system. This is largely down to them cutting DWP budgets.
It takes a massive leap of illogic to state that Labour are blaming disabled people for a lack of cost of living support
Says the guy taking home £115,000 for doing basically feck all.
Money well spent by sunak for extra border protection at France's border...
This fecking cnut seriously has no shame!
In 40-odd days (including 10-12 when the country was in ‘national mourning’ FFS) she blew a £30bn hole in the economy destroyed mortgages for thousands and nearly destroyed the UK pension system!
Yet here she is, a three-legged donkey with an ice-cream cone stuck to her head cosplaying as an economic unicorn whereas in any functioning society she’d be hiding in a fecking corner too overwhelmed by her own stupidity to even fecking talk!