Sorry, but the whole 'everyone but Bayern fans knows that Bayern has already won the league for several upcoming seasons' narration sucks beyond belief. 1. because it's not true and 2. because it sets up a way of thinking about the league that makes it impossible for Bayern fans to discuss football at all without someone showing up and posting bullshit like Kasper did a few posts above.
I thought that warranted a response.
Well, I did not say that. I said I do not know when this will change, because well, I can´t predict the future. If I could do that I would have taken an hiatus from club football last season. Would have spared me a lot of grieve
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What I can rate is the status quo in which Bayern Munich has a huge probability to win the league this season, somewhere between 90-95% in my book. These kinds of odds simply speak for little to no competition for the title. No other club in an European elite league is that much of a favourite as Bayern Munich in Germany.
Maybe that will change in the next season. Maybe we can convince Hummels and Mkhitaryan to stay and invest enough into a squad shaped after Tuchel´s vision, that we are a bigger threat next season. Maybe Guardiola leaves Bayern and the successor does a worse job and the gap gets smaller that way. Who knows?
I get that the initial post might rubbed some people the wrong way, though. It was written in a way harsher tone than I normally use, mostly out of irritation by the post I originally quoted.
Bit pessimistic. Your front 4 is lovely and Gundogan on this form is possibly the best player in the entire league. The defense would have to step up a level, but it's possible. The talent is there. Obviously Bayern look capable of hitting 90 points or some insane number this year but they could slip a little with the CL knockouts games and/or injuries, so I don't see why there isn't a title race.
Dortmund are on pace for 82 points. That would have won the league by 3 points last year.
Oh, you won´t see me disagreeing that our first eleven is pretty damn classy, even the three to four players after that, which is why I´m far more confident in the cup competitions. However, you don´t win a league like the Bundesliga vs the Bayern with just this amount of class player under normal circumstances. The real difference between Dortmund and Bayern is not so much the best possible formation (they are also superior there but not by much), it is the squad depth which is the real deal breaker in a league format.
This could be the bench if everyone at Bayern would be fit (it is not like they are lucky with injuries, quite the contrary, actually):
Ulreich-Benatia, Bernat-Alonso, Rode-Götze, Coman
And this is without the longtime injurees Ribery and Badstuber.
Of course we could get ridicously lucky and all our key players would manage to play around 50 games (including for the countries) this season without injuries on a very high level. It is possible, just highly unlikely (basically the remaining 5%), which is why it should never be the base of expectations for the season.
The bold is not really true, btw. I don´t believe for a second that a Bayern team, which would have had something to play for in the league, would have lost the three games vs. Leverkusen, Augsburg and Freiburg in the manner they did. They completely lacked intensity and stability, which was to be expected because they were already champion. If they would have felt even a little amount of pressure at that point they would have finished with at least 85 points.
If you look at Dortmund, you can ask very specific questions about their decisions and how it led to last season: Why did they have that buyout clause in Götze's contract? Why did they have a small squad two years ago with the high injury rate? Why are they refusing to pay the piper and still insist on spending small money only? They've been in the CL consistently for a few years, that was the window to open up and widen the gap to the rest of the league. Sphaero has those answers and perhaps I'm asking the wrong questions, but over the decades I've repeated myself about this to friends over and over... Bayern doesn't have a magic trick. It's all there in the open.
I do, but it would go to far to really go in detail about that (maybe another time). The short version is, that we had to use a lot of the money we earned back then for infrastructure (maintanance of the stadium, offices, training facilities, academy), because this had to be neglected for a long time to recover financially. Some people like to forget that we were bascially financially dead just ten years ago (a result of trying to rival Bayern´s finances with highly risky business) and for quite a few years the first goal was to stay in the Bundesliga while keeping up the recovery plan we had to undergo.
This has changed in recent years, so we are now in the position to really invest into the squad, both on the market and the wages. The main requirement for that is to play in the CL, though.
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