Brexited | the worst threads live the longest

Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?


  • Total voters
    194
  • Poll closed .
Only it's not 12-15% and with the feckin basket case pound that number is falling rapidly. We have literally no cards to play, if you think we do just name them?

Yep so the UK wants it's own path, and it's now fecked? Jog on. The UK is a massive net importer, not sure what part of that is so difficult to understand.
 
Meanwhile in Ireland....

Fears mount in Ireland over post-Brexit ‘hard border’

Sharp divisions emerge among political leaders after legal challenge to EU exit gets under way

Sharp divisions have emerged among Northern Ireland’s political leaders, and between Belfast and Dublin, as the threat of a “hard” border on the island of Ireland emerges after the UK’s vote to leave the EU.

The disagreements came into the open this week after the Irish government announced it would establish an “all-island civic dialogue” to meet in Dublin next month to enable “the widest possible conversation on the implications of the referendum result for Ireland north and south and for north/south relations”.

They were also evident in the polarised political backing for a legal challenge to Brexit that got under way in a Belfast court on Tuesday. The challenge is based on the view that Northern Ireland has a veto over any change to its constitutional position following devolution and the 1998 Good Friday Agreement.

If and when the UK leaves the EU, the Irish border will become its only land frontier with the bloc. It was one of the most heavily fortified frontiers in Europe during the Troubles, but has in effect disappeared for all practical purposes during the past two decades. But with conflicting signals from London — and with the EU likely to have a big say in the matter — the Irish government is increasingly frustrated at the prospect of a new border undermining the political progress in Northern Ireland of the past few years.

Some 56 per cent of voters in Northern Ireland backed the Remain camp in the June referendum, with 44 per cent voting to leave. The Democratic Unionist party, the province’s largest political faction, backed the Leave campaign. All the other parties advocated Remain, and are now agitating against a “hard Brexit”, the course increasingly being adopted by Theresa May, the UK prime minister.

“The message we sent to Theresa May and her band of Brexiters [in the referendum] is that we do not consent and we will not consent to being taken out of Europe against the will of our people,” says Colum Eastwood, leader of Northern Ireland’s centrist Social Democratic and Labour party, which backs the legal challenge. The case was continuing in the High Court in Belfast on Wednesday.

The SDLP and Sinn Féin, the main Irish nationalist party in the north, say they will attend the civic dialogue on November 2. The event is expected to include business and trade union representatives, cross-border bodies and non-governmental organisations. The DUP and the rival Ulster Unionist party have rejected the initiative, illustrating the difficult task that the Irish government faces in securing any all-island approach to Brexit.

The British and Irish governments say they want to protect existing arrangements between north and south, which includes full freedom of movement and about €3bn of trade across the border each year.

James Brokenshire, the UK’s Northern Ireland secretary, said at the Conservative party conference in Birmingham this week that the UK government “will work to ensure that Northern Ireland’s unique interests are protected and advanced”.

Irish officials, however, say they have diminishing faith in such reassurances until the nature of the UK’s departure from the EU becomes clear. In the meantime, Enda Kenny, the Irish prime minister, is battling to convince a sceptical public that the government can address the threats of Brexit. These include not just the border question but disruption to trade between Ireland and Britain, which amounts to more than €1bn a week, and the possible ending of the common travel area.

“There’s a lot more work going on here than you realise,” he told the Irish parliament this week.

https://www.ft.com/content/56f62810-8afd-11e6-8cb7-e7ada1d123b1

That soft border was in place for good reason and, given Ireland is an EU member, a hard brexit carries threat for the EU beyond the obvious financial implications.
 
Really? You need a closer look.
Rest assured that will not happen if Merkel and the EU start playing silly sods with the UK. If you think otherwise you don't know your country very well.


Former military adversaries Britain and Germany are weighing up a serious defense alliance which would see UK helicopters stationed on German naval ships.
The plans, announced by UK Defence Secretary Michael Fallon, will see the two countries increase joint training exercises with Britain stationing a new Wildcat helicopter aboard a German warship during a Mediterranean Sea training mission in 2017.

Britain stands together with Germany to face the same challenges, including the threat from Daesh [Islamic State], and shares the same values of liberty, tolerance and justice,” Fallon said at a meeting with his counterpart Ursula von der Leyen at the German Embassy Friday.

https://www.rt.com/uk/361948-german-helicopter-military-alliance/
 
There will be a relatively small tariff, it's not in either party's interest to do anything else. Please tell me different?

The biggest issue will be financial passporting, which the UK will lose once outside the single market. Such disadvantage will remain even after the UK has managed to make a deal with WTO (which is far from straightforward, to start negotiation process the UK must be out of the EU and the process can last years. There's also plenty of countries in the WTO who doesn't like you very much too).
 
I'll tell you there won't be, the EU want to cast the UK adrift and believe it or not we aren't a power house, in fact we are nothing.

Take your nationalistic head off and look at the real world.


Get your toys out of the pram you big baby. We are nothing? WTF planet are you on?
 
The biggest issue will be financial passporting, which the UK will lose once outside the single market. Such disadvantage will remain even after the UK has managed to make a deal with WTO (which is far from straightforward, to start negotiation process the UK must be out of the EU and the process can last years. There's also plenty of countries in the WTO who doesn't like you very much too).
Stock Markets..... Think about it
 
It's already gone from 12-15% to 20%. It'll be 30% next, mark my words.

Indeed I will, when I'm buying my next BMW with an additional 30% tax I will remark 'Good God Red Defence was right all along' ........

Absolute bollocks
 
I don't think the UK want to be a member of the single market at all, just have the same access to the single market in the way other countries around the world have access.

Not allowing them access in the same way as others would be a form of discrimination would it not.

that is not even in doubt. The EU wouldn't even be allowed to discriminate in such a way. I can promise you 100%, that this is never going to happen. Getting the same deal like other foreign countries won't be a problem at all. The issue is, that this alone could have massive impact on the British economy. Nobody (who is serious) is talking about anything else.
 
Get your toys out of the pram you big baby. We are nothing? WTF planet are you on?

Oh really, do tell me wtf are we? As the pound falls continuously we become less and less attractive to export to and precisely what apart from services do we export?
 
that is not even in doubt. The EU wouldn't even be allowed to discriminate in such a way. I can promise you 100%, that this is never going to happen. Getting the same deal like other foreign countries won't be a problem at all. The issue is, that this alone could have massive impact on the British economy. Nobody (who is serious) is talking about anything else.

I believe we'll cope. We are always at our best when the going gets tough.
 
Doubt that Merkel wants to make her situation any worse than it is by making a load of German car workers redundant.

Jeez how many times have I got to repeat it. Merkel is not the goddess of the EU irrespective what Farage tells you. There's 27 countries in the EU, a substantial number of them barely do any meaningful business with the UK and hold freedom of movement dearly. Unlike the UK were Scotland/Northern Ireland seem to have no real say on important issues, every single country in the EU is armed with a VETO. If the deal isn't right for everybody then it will be torpedoed irrespective whether Merkel/May wants that or not.
 
I believe we'll cope. We are always at our best when the going gets tough.

Obviously you will cope, the only problem is that both sides will pay a little bit more than what they want.
 
cost of business, value of market etc, if UK is so fecked why???? Spell it out for me please

All I am saying is that unless the UK remains in the single market then it can kiss its financial passport within the EU goodbye. That wont happen unless the UK accepts freedom of movement
 
Jeez how many times have I got to repeat it. Merkel is not the goddess of the EU irrespective what Farage tells you. There's 27 countries in the EU, a substantial number of them barely do any meaningful business with the UK and hold freedom of movement dearly. Unlike the UK were Scotland/Northern Ireland seem to have no real say on important issues, every single country in the EU is armed with a VETO. If the deal isn't right for everybody then it will be torpedoed irrespective whether Merkel/May wants that or not.
So you keep saying but you need to tell that to Merkel not me. And, I know, you don't need to keep telling me, no-one likes us either. (not that they take you into their confidence I'm sure) And I know there are 27 countries with a VETO so you don't need to keep telling me that either. And I know, the other leaders are feeling petty and vindictive so you don't need to tell me that again either.

Just in case you missed it though I will repeat myself again if it's ok with you....we do not want to be a member we just want access and access does not come with a freedom of movement clause...as the rest of the world will confirm.
 
All I am saying is that unless the UK remains in the single market then it can kiss its financial passport within the EU goodbye. That wont happen unless the UK accepts freedom of movement

If the uk loses its passporting rights for clearing of € deals and those of all the major currencies then you may as well turn the lights off in the Uk, there will be no coming back.
 
So you keep saying but you need to tell that to Merkel not me. And, I know, you don't need to keep telling me, no-one likes us either. (not that they take you into their confidence I'm sure) And I know there are 27 countries with a VETO so you don't need to keep telling me that either. And I know, the other leaders are feeling petty and vindictive so you don't need to tell me that again either.

Just in case you missed it though I will repeat myself again if it's ok with you....we do not want to be a member we just want access and access does not come with a freedom of movement clause...as the rest of the world will confirm.

Yes it does, listen to the EU leaders, how many times do they need to say it before you accept it?
 
So you keep saying but you need to tell that to Merkel not me. And, I know, you don't need to keep telling me, no-one likes us either. (not that they take you into their confidence I'm sure) And I know there are 27 countries with a VETO so you don't need to keep telling me that either. And I know, the other leaders are feeling petty and vindictive so you don't need to tell me that again either.

Just in case you missed it though I will repeat myself again if it's ok with you....we do not want to be a member we just want access and access does not come with a freedom of movement clause...as the rest of the world will confirm.
This won't be a negotiation with the rest of the world. This is a member state posing an existential threat to the European Union. They're not going to be bend over.
 
Duty is 10% and VAT 20%, the VAT is deductable for professionals.

A further point to this though is the exchange rate - an imported car from the EU that cost €39000 for example or £30000 on June 22nd at €1.30/£1 now would cost £35000+ at €1.11/£1 - there's your additional 15% assuming the exchange rate doesn't slide even further which is highly unlikely. This seems to have been forgotten.
 
So you keep saying but you need to tell that to Merkel not me. And, I know, you don't need to keep telling me, no-one likes us either. (not that they take you into their confidence I'm sure) And I know there are 27 countries with a VETO so you don't need to keep telling me that either. And I know, the other leaders are feeling petty and vindictive so you don't need to tell me that again either.

Just in case you missed it though I will repeat myself again if it's ok with you....we do not want to be a member we just want access and access does not come with a freedom of movement clause...as the rest of the world will confirm.

The thing is you have access, almost everyone has free access. I don't think that there is any embargo currently.
 
So you keep saying but you need to tell that to Merkel not me. And, I know, you don't need to keep telling me, no-one likes us either. (not that they take you into their confidence I'm sure) And I know there are 27 countries with a VETO so you don't need to keep telling me that either. And I know, the other leaders are feeling petty and vindictive so you don't need to tell me that again either.

Just in case you missed it though I will repeat myself again if it's ok with you....we do not want to be a member we just want access and access does not come with a freedom of movement clause...as the rest of the world will confirm.

So let me repeat again. The access you will need is not the limited access Canada or Iceland gets or want. Its far far more than that, especially if you want financial passporting. Also unlike your Brexit expert who thought that the UK can sign deals with individual EU countries when its not the case or your foreign secretary who promised a trade deal to Turkey even though its in the EU customs union, Merkel knows a thing or two about the EU. Knowledge regarding the EU tend to come with exposure and unfortunately the UK were never interested in the EU. That's clearly reflected by the UKIP MEPs who were too busy blaming immigrants regarding living off on British benefits to actually do their work in Brussels. In matter of fact UKIP had the laziest MEPs in Europe.

Here is what Merkel and the BDI had to say about the matter

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/201...ot-save-britain-from-hard-brexit-warns-merke/
 
Financial passporting might not be as big a deal as people are making it out to be. It will be easily offset (and then some more) by the huge boost for the non-eu part.
 
Since when did Canada, China, Russia, Turkey etc agree free movement agreements with the EU in order to trade?

Turkey is in the customs union, China has numerous agreements with the EU which are pretty restricted when compared to unrestricted single market access, Canada will soon sign a trade deal with the EU which took 7 long years and similarly to China is nowhere near to unrestricted access to the single market. I dont know about Russia. I doubt the EU will be drinking vodka with Putin anytime soon though.

None of these countries have the level of access to the single market that the UK wants and seeks. If it wants that, then it must accept freedom of movement
 
Financial passporting might not be as big a deal as people are making it out to be. It will be easily offset (and then some more) by the huge boost for the non-eu part.

you're one of the very few people I know saying that
 
I'm not interested in Merkel's comments on anything really. There's too much of a bravado act coming out of the EU now and it's not worthy of much respect.

So what exactly you're interested in?