Politics at Westminster | BREAKING: UKIP

Cheesy said:
Thinking on it the Lib Dems really, really should be making massive gains. May's Tories have essentially abandoned Cameron's pro-EU, slightly liberal while fairly right-wing economic type of Tory party, while Corbyn has abandoned the centrist Labour that would appeal to some Lib Dems.

Anyone who wants a fairly socially liberal party without being too left-wing economically should be absolutely nailed on for the Lib Dems at the moment unless they're voting tribally.
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Yeah the Lib Dems have a huge potential audience right now. Trouble is Tim Farron is, well, shit. They really should have gone for Norman Lamb, but the leadership election took place pre-Corbyn when everyone expected Labour to go for a centrist candidate and they wanted a classic wooly liberal to outflank Labour on the left. Then Corbyn happens and they're stuck with this guy.

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The turnout in that Sunderland ward was apparently pretty standard so no excuse there. And here's the historic vote shares there since 2000:



So worse than post-Iraq and recession midterms. Local factors were definitely in play though, the councillor who was being replaced apparently hadn't turned up to meetings for 6 months. The swing is exaggerated, but the move from Labour to Lib Dems is real and has been going on for about 6 months now.
 
Unmutual said:
That's about normal.



Even though I would back it personally, I suspect this is a fairly low salience issue. How many people know off the top of their what an additional 1% NIC would cost them in cash terms? If you asked them about the cash value (relative to their salaries) you might get a different answer.
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Was actually pretty popular when Brown did it earlier in the decade, though different times, Labour were trusted on the economy etc.
 
berbatrick said:
@Nick 0208 Ldn



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Something certainly needs to be done. Although i think people would have more confidence in such a tax increase if at least part of it was specifically targeted, as opposed to going into one big central bureaucratic pot. For example, you could have a quarter-share going to their local hospital and medicine procurement respectively.

The shortfall is larger than the amounts raised by the suggestions in the YouGov survey though.


berbatrick said:
@Nick 0208 Ldn



How many does it accept currently?
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Not as many as most believe, i shouldn't wonder. There were 41,000ish asylum applications in 2016, and 4,100 beneficiaries of the Government's Syrian refugee scheme. It can and should be higher, if not quite to the 100,000+ figure seen in the early 2000s. Of course the level of EU immigration was much less then too.
 
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Nick 0208 Ldn said:
Something certainly needs to be done. Although i think people would have more confidence in such a tax increase if at least part of it was specifically targeted, as opposed to going into one big central bureaucratic pot. For example, you could have a quarter-share going to their local hospital and medicine procurement respectively.

The shortfall is larger can amounts raised by the suggestions in the YouGov survey though.




Not as many as most believe, i shouldn't wonder. There were 41,000ish asylum applications in 2016, and 4,100 beneficiaries of the Government's Syrian refugee scheme. It can and should be higher, indeed it was well over double this total in the early-2000s. Of course the level of EU immigration was much less then too.
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Actually I didn't want to tag you in the second one, no idea why I did that.
The 1st one, yes. The tax increase may not cover it but it's a start.
 
NinjaFletch said:
There was also a similar (although not as strong) shift away from the Conservatives and Labour in Three Rivers in Hertfordshire last night.

The usual caveats all apply, but its definitely not bad news for the Lib Dems.
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Yeah saw that as well, it's definitely not bad news for them but I agree with @Cheesy post, the Lib Dems have the luxury of having a simply position on Brexit which the other parties can't have. So they should be making some gains.

Not if they will have to much an effect in the end, they might end up giving the Tories a slightly better win percentage in the next election.
Unmutual said:
That's about normal.
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Oh didn't know that cheers.
 
Sweet Square said:
Yeah saw that as well, it's definitely not bad news for them but I agree with @Cheesy post, the Lib Dems have the luxury of having a simply position on Brexit which the other parties can't have. So they should be making some gains.

Not if they will have to much an effect in the end, they might end up giving the Tories a slightly better win percentage in the next election.
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Maybe not, but even an increase to about 15% again (which is possible) would be massive for them if they could become the third party. We've seen with UKIP you don't need that many MP's to influence policy...just enough of a threat. The Lib Dems somehow often seemed to influence the Tories less while being in government with them. They need to get better at both protesting stuff they don't like, and highlighting when they do well (holding back things like snoopers charter when they were in government was great work). Basically, they don't need to win that many voters to have a key effect and influence again.
 
Cheesy said:
Maybe not, but even an increase to about 15% again (which is possible) would be massive for them if they could become the third party. We've seen with UKIP you don't need that many MP's to influence policy...just enough of a threat. The Lib Dems somehow often seemed to influence the Tories less while being in government with them. They need to get better at both protesting stuff they don't like, and highlighting when they do well (holding back things like snoopers charter when they were in government was great work). Basically, they don't need to win that many voters to have a key effect and influence again.
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Oh it would be good for the Lib Dem party but I think for their voters who (And maybe I'm stereotyping) main concern is getting another referendum, this bump up in the vote will have no influence on that.
 
Unmutual said:
Pretty remarkable by election result in Sunderland. Interesting because Sunderland was famously the first leaver in the Brexit vote, but a pro-remain party has won it.



Obv with it being a smaller ward election you could have pockets of pro-Remain voters.
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Joined the party officially last year and have a lot of friends who have done the same. There's still some anger about the tuition fees fiasco. But from my experience, the strength of feeling against the Brexit vote is a lot more.
 
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Cheesy said:
Thinking on it the Lib Dems really, really should be making massive gains. May's Tories have essentially abandoned Cameron's pro-EU, slightly liberal while fairly right-wing economic type of Tory party, while Corbyn has abandoned the centrist Labour that would appeal to some Lib Dems.

Anyone who wants a fairly socially liberal party without being too left-wing economically should be absolutely nailed on for the Lib Dems at the moment unless they're voting tribally.
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Agree, big political gap for a pro-EU party right now and that gap has to be filled, its an obvious stance for the Lib-Dems. I know nothing about Farron or his party but would consider throwing them my vote this stance alone.
 
Cheesy said:
Anyone who wants a fairly socially liberal party without being too left-wing economically should be absolutely nailed on for the Lib Dems at the moment unless they're voting tribally.
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Especially if they've just woken up from the coma they'd been in since early 2010. In that scenario, as long as they're not applying for University any time soon and make sure they don't look up the phrase "Shirley Williams motion" (especially not the beaming faces as they voted in favour of it) they'll find a home within the Lib Dems.
 
Dobba said:
Especially if they've just woken up from the coma they'd been in since early 2010. In that scenario, as long as they're not applying for University any time soon and make sure they don't look up the phrase "Shirley Williams motion" (especially not the beaming faces as they voted in favour of it) they'll find a home within the Lib Dems.
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If people could accept that a) Governments have to do shit things sometimes and b) they're human and make mistakes, we'd all be better off.

Otherwise we end up prioritising people without experience over people with experience, because if you've never had to make a decision you can never make a bad one.
 
Unmutual said:
If people could accept that a) Governments have to do shit things sometimes and b) they're human and make mistakes, we'd all be better off.

Otherwise we end up prioritising people without experience over people with experience, because if you've never had to make a decision you can never make a bad one.
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Yes they gave up their two biggest campaign promises and got absolutely nothing in return but, to be fair, having principles is hard. Sometimes you have to fight for them and everything.

The world may as well give up political debates and possibly even the party system itself, as you can use this reasoning to justify absolutely anything.
 
Dobba said:
The world may as well give up political debates and possibly even the party system itself, as you can use this reasoning to justify absolutely anything.
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You can take any argument to absurdity. That doesn't make it invalid when applied within reason.
 
Unmutual said:
You can take any argument to absurdity. That doesn't make it invalid when applied within reason.
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I agree with you. The way politicians get blasted for 'U-turns' has always been a particular annoyance of mine. Flip-flopping obviously isn't great but there's absolutely no shame in rethinking through a position or considering new evidence and admitting that a different course to the one you originally planned might actually be right.

On the Lib Dems I'm in a bit of a difficult spot. Have voted for them in all the recent elections and really admired their role in the Coalition, but, despite voting Remain, I'm not massively on board with their position on Europe. Never been sure on Farron either, though some of the other MPs still in the House at the moment are very impressive e.g. Norman Lamb.
 
Agent Red said:
I agree with you. The way politicians get blasted for 'U-turns' has always been a particular annoyance of mine. Flip-flopping obviously isn't great but there's absolutely no shame in rethinking through a position or considering new evidence and admitting that a different course to the one you originally planned might actually be right.
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They didn't rethink a position on new evidence, they gave up their pledges on NHS reform and tuition fees in exchange for Tory crumbs. Well, I should say crumb as they only got one of them and they still ended up losing that.
Agent Red said:
On the Lib Dems I'm in a bit of a difficult spot. Have voted for them in all the recent elections and really admired their role in the Coalition, but, despite voting Remain, I'm not massively on board with their position on Europe. Never been sure on Farron either, though some of the other MPs still in the House at the moment are very impressive e.g. Norman Lamb.
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I'm very intrigued. What are earth do you admire from their role in the Coalition?
 
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Dobba said:
They didn't rethink a position on new evidence, they gave up their pledges on NHS reform and tuition fees in exchange for Tory crumbs. Well, I should say crumb as they only got one of them and they still ended up losing that.

I'm very intrigued. What are earth do you admire from their role in the Coalition?
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Wasn't specifically talking about Lib Dems with the U-Turn comment, was a general point.

On the second question, I work in govt. so had a different perspective in terms of the differences they made behind the scenes. I thought they were genuinely very collaborative and constructive which is what was needed for that government to be stable and functioning, which in my opinion was in the best interests of the country rather than having 5 years of minority government and bickering which wouldn't deliver anything. They weren't great at publicising their successes and were probably a bit naiive in handling what can be a pretty ruthless and snide Conservative Party (probably fair to say of Labour too as it's just a major party trait) but I think they made a big difference, often doing the right thing despite knowing it would damage them personally or as a Party. I hope history will be kinder to them than the polls were in 2015; I think it will be.
 
Dobba said:
I'm very intrigued. What are earth do you admire from their role in the Coalition?
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They were key in holding back further moves to intrude on our civil liberties, which is why you're seeing legislation like the Snoopers Charter being passed now the Tories have sole reign. In addition to that they were almost certainly the party holding Cameron back from having an EU referendum pre-2015.

They could have and should have done a lot more while in coalition, and should've pushed for further influence, but I'd take them in coalition well, well over what we have now.
 
Agent Red said:
I agree with you. The way politicians get blasted for 'U-turns' has always been a particular annoyance of mine. Flip-flopping obviously isn't great but there's absolutely no shame in rethinking through a position or considering new evidence and admitting that a different course to the one you originally planned might actually be right.

On the Lib Dems I'm in a bit of a difficult spot. Have voted for them in all the recent elections and really admired their role in the Coalition, but, despite voting Remain, I'm not massively on board with their position on Europe. Never been sure on Farron either, though some of the other MPs still in the House at the moment are very impressive e.g. Norman Lamb.
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Who're you thinking of going for at the moment?
 
Ubik said:
Who're you thinking of going for at the moment?
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I'd probably end up going for them again by process of elimination. Labour aren't in a state to govern at the moment (in my opinion) and I disagree on quite a few fundamental things with the Tories. Too far apart from UKIP and the Greens, so wouldn't consider them either. I'd never not vote and the thought of spoiling my ballot doesn't feel right somehow, though I have considered it.

Whilst I respect the Lib Dems position in some way, as a reluctant Remainer, I do wish they'd do a bit more to recognise the failings of the EU and reach out to the 52%. I also don't want them to revert to being a protest party who bang the drum of a few popular causes and don't think though the practicality of their policies - hopefully they have learnt that lesson from Tuition Fees.
 
Ubik said:
I'm pretty much the same as @Agent Red's reasoning above (though I'm more fervently pro-Remain), it's Lib Dems by default for me at the moment.
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Fair. I like Stella Creasy so I'd still vote for her as my MP, but the Lib Dems would be the party I'd choose if we voted that way.
 
ThierryHenry said:
Fair. I like Stella Creasy so I'd still vote for her as my MP, but the Lib Dems would be the party I'd choose if we voted that way.
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Yup would do the same in Walthamstow. The local MP and a pure Labour-Tory marginal would be the only real things to persuade me to do otherwise at the moment (not that my vote is decisive in any way down here, it's always been purely for the popular vote nationwide).
 
ThierryHenry said:
Fair. I like Stella Creasy so I'd still vote for her as my MP, but the Lib Dems would be the party I'd choose if we voted that way.
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Ubik said:
Yup would do the same in Walthamstow. The local MP and a pure Labour-Tory marginal would be the only real things to persuade me to do otherwise at the moment (not that my vote is decisive in any way down here, it's always been purely for the popular vote nationwide).
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Yes, if I had a solid moderate Labour MP like her then I might consider voting for Labour again. Someone will have to rebuild the party eventually or found a new one and there are a couple of Labour MPs continuing to do a very good job from the backbenches under the current circumstances, Creasey being one of them. Yvette Cooper has been the default Leader of the Opposition in reality, it's the causes she's led that have actually got traction and helped move the government position.
 
Sweet Square said:
People are weird.

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My guess is a lot of Labour support still comes from big metropolitan cities which are often relatively pro-immigration insofar as them already being quite liberal and multicultural.

While the Lib Dems are the most socially liberal party of the lot (aside from the Greens at a push), a fair bit of their support still comes from larger (and presumably more rural) communities who will sometimes be less keen on immigration.

In Scotland for example many of their key areas (before 2015) were in places like Argyll and Bute and the Highlands, massive rural areas compared to the central belt. Plus their one remaining constituency up here is Orkney and Shetlands...which is just about as rural as you can get in the UK! Again, I'm not sure if the view of those places varies in Scotland as such, but in general the Lib Dems seem to garner a lot of support from specific areas in a more tribal sense almost, even if their policies don't necessarily match up.
 
Cheesy said:
My guess is a lot of Labour support still comes from big metropolitan cities which are often relatively pro-immigration insofar as them already being quite liberal and multicultural.

While the Lib Dems are the most socially liberal party of the lot (aside from the Greens at a push), a fair bit of their support still comes from larger (and presumably more rural) communities who will sometimes be less keen on immigration.

In Scotland for example many of their key areas (before 2015) were in places like Argyll and Bute and the Highlands, massive rural areas compared to the central belt. Plus their one remaining constituency up here is Orkney and Shetlands...which is just about as rural as you can get in the UK! Again, I'm not sure if the view of those places varies in Scotland as such, but in general the Lib Dems seem to garner a lot of support from specific areas in a more tribal sense almost, even if their policies don't necessarily match up.
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Well it's better than my explanation anyway. But yeah that would make a lot more sense then, just expected the numbers to be closer.
Drifter said:
My guess. Polls are rubbish
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I do keep forgetting how shite they've been lately.
 
There's a big difference between polls that predict the future and polls that ask people about their current views on a topic. Any that ask people to predict their future behaviour has all sorts of complexities to deal with, but ones that ask about people in the here and now are straight forward. All they needs is a representative sample.
 
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