Why do you think the UK will find a way to make itself richer? I'd put the chances of that at about <5% right now.
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Why do you think the UK will find a way to make itself richer? I'd put the chances of that at about <5% right now.
I was thinking about the UK with the EU because I believe that nothing will really change, UK politicians will pretend to have more power while EU politicians will play along while they both do what they have been doing for decades.
I mean what is Brexit going to change?
I think I've already explained and corrected what I first said - I answered to Wibbles's comment ' Most countries would love to be in ' by saying that Turkey, Morocco and Ukraine are the three countries that most want(ed) to join the EU; the problems that each would bring if this happened; and that I didn't think that thay would be joining the EU too soon.
If you guys know through inside knowledge that they won't be joining, then my comment is inaccurate as you say.
If you guys think they won't be joining, then my own thoughts that they will probably join at some point in the future is no more accurate or inaccurate than yours.
Undodged ??
We're past that point. If Britain is indeed leaving the single market and customs union, then for one thing its going to have to very quickly introduce a vast amount of customs infrastructure and regulation that its in absolutely no position currently to deal with. I'm not sure how they avoid that without the Tories caving in, and right now all May's cards are in a hand marked 'Great deal or no deal'.
Let's see what happens in the coming years. The important thing to remember is that if the tories have a bad deal and the UK suffers, they or someone else will still be allowed to negotiate with the EU for a different deal, treatis are adjustable and evolutive.
Sometimes this thread gives the impression that May's Brexit is the last conversation ever between the EU and the UK but it's not and she should think about that.
Not really, though. Being able to join requires meeting sets of criteria which none of the three countries meet or are likely to meet, and the ability to join also requires every single country to approve since countries are allowed to veto.
I'm getting an anti muslim feeling from the pro eu group here, thought that was reserved for anti eu thugs
If a proposal to allow people to fart in public was tabled it would also take becking from 27 countries and probably 7 years to reach a decision.
In what sense?
Read posts
C'mon...I thought I'd clarified and explained why I said what I said....
As for the your other comment - agree totally about criteria and vetos.... For the resons you point out, none of the three would ' get the nod ' right now.
But things change over time, and as the EU evolves ( might be for the better, might be for the worse ) during the next 10 > 20 years, so will individual countries' attitudes to admitting new members or, even, losing some of the current members.
I guess what I'm trying to say is what might be vetoed today might not be vetoed 10 or 15 years from now.
And as for meeting different criteria, well the EU has plenty of form in moving the goalposts and lowering its required standards to suit its needs....
Undodged this time ?
Which ones?
Are you not seeing all the cartoons of Muhammad people have posted in the last couple of days?
You don't need inside knowledge to realise Morocco will never join the EU. Ukraine yes. Turkey a very long shot.
Morocco however is the only North African country not to go through revolution with the Arab Spring. I would suggest the economic development aided by the EU programmes you listed has a lot to do with it.
The anti muslim feeling exist in the anti eu lot, us pro eu people recognise this so surmise it's unrealistic to believe Morocco or Turkey would ever join the EU.
I heard China is joining the EU and a billion people will come to [insert city near you].
Morocco joing the EU
Morocco joing the EU
Mis-information is the story of Brexit - Gullibles travels
Ringe, Wolf-Georg, The Irrelevance of Brexit for the European Financial Market (February 5, 2017). Oxford Legal Studies Research Paper No 3/2017. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2902715 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2902715
That might interest you @Jippy
In the end it is just an opinion, but it is useful to read some balanced outlooks.
That might interest you @Jippy
In the end it is just an opinion, but it is useful to read some balanced outlooks.
Cheers. Jusr read the abstract- hope he's right!
Strong rumours that it will happen on Tuesday or Wednesday. Here goes, 18 months of ups & downs.
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Obviously, if they want to give EU citizenship rights to British people that's the EU's entitlement.
Such a clever move to widen the split in our country even further, to fill the void that Labour should be filling for the neglected, unrepresented 48%.
I didn't read it yet, but the assumption is that the EU27 have a stake in a single financial market with the Brits. I don't think that's the case, because a financial sector feeds off the real economy, with genuine production and services. The City feeds itself very well with the EU27 economies, but Britain has little for the EU27 financial sector to feed off. I've read about suggestions that the main EU member states wanted to shrink the financial sector in the wake of the crisis anyway, but the UK prevented that.
It's not clear whether the EU27 sees Brexit as a chance to shrink the financial sector, or as a chance for Frankfurt, Paris and Amsterdam to grow their financial sectors, but no matter how closely politician0s and the financial sector are connected, there's really no reason to let the City profit from real economic activity on the continent.
The City seems to profit from real economic activity whether it's from within the EU or from outside though.
If it can profit from the US to the Far East why can't it from the EU?
If it can profit from the US to the Far East why can't it from the EU?
Read the article.
Basically it says not much will change re brexit. No North Korea
Sorry for the bad news.
Israel would be fast-tracked if it ever wished (unlikely) to join the EU. Ukraine, Serbia just a matter of time. Morrocco and Turkey, not a chance.
Looking painfully obvious the EU's goal in all this is to have us rejoin in the near anyway. Which we probably will.
I noticed that, and it's very reasonable within the assumption that a huge financial sector is seen by all players as an asset.
I forgot, the only alternative for socialism for the banks is communism of course.
The millennials will be looking to reverse the decision in 15/20 years time. The majority of us voted to remain. You'll then have a combination of the general feeling that 1. things were better when we were younger and that's because we were in the EU and 2. some people always want a change to the system they live in in the hope it will improve their situation.
Every article i read these days just leaves me more and depressed on the issue. Mainly because despite all best intentions of such policy groups, nobody is listening. Our goverment is fixated solely on implementing the vision of brexiteers and avoiding their wrath, a largey racist misinformed bunch who care for no one.
We may as well have Trump in charge i see very little difference these days.
Leaked Treasury report warns of painful 'economic shock' if Britain crashes out of the EU without a deal
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...esa-may-eu-referendum-exclusive-a7624706.html
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...esa-may-eu-referendum-exclusive-a7624706.html
But the German car manufacturers...
Calm down, lads. Theresa will laugh at Jeremy during PM's Questions and everything will be okay again. We don't need a coherent plan, we just need zingers.
Why only 18 Months?
Officially it's two years but I think the EU will try to force the issue because they will have their own timetable - EU elections etc.
Any agreement has to be ratified in the 2 years... so yeah I suspect somewhere between 12-18 months is all the time there is to actually negotiate before it has to go I front of all the other eu parliaments and presumably leave enough time for it to be rejected by a couple of parliaments and renegotiated (like the Canadian deal falling down in one region of belgium)