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Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?


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The debate about the 'divorce bill' is a bit odd. Various figures are being quoted, but always as a gross amount. Surely if it's for projects and spending already agreed then much of that sum will bounce back to the UK in the form of spending here. It's the net amount that matters.

Obviously pensions and such will have to be paid, and rightly so, but again, a proportion of that will be to British recipients, so hopefully most will come back to the UK.
 
I've lived inside the EEC/EC/EU since the UK joined in 1973.

And I've tried to stand up to it since 2005 - JPRouve will know the significance of 2005 and might tell you all why.

And yourself ?? You live inside the EU ?? And where ?? And since when ??
"I've lived there so I know all about it" :lol:
 
The debate about the 'divorce bill' is a bit odd. Various figures are being quoted, but always as a gross amount. Surely if they're for projects and spending already agreed then much of that sum will bounce back to the UK in the form of spending here. It's the net amount that matters.

Obviously pensions and such will have to be paid, and rightly so, but again, a proportion of that will be to British recipients, so hopefully most will come back to the UK.
I don't get it that it's billed as an 'exit fee'. Surely if we've committed to long-term funding projects, then they are paid over several years, rather than a massive lump sum upfront cost.

Kind of made me laugh (more cry) that a vox pop on the news said Britain will get great trade deals cos 'everyone loves us'. Hmm...
 
I'd not necessarily consider it undemocratic if it was a position which made sense for us to pick instead of electing. Does the EU commission not directly propose policy, though? Obviously it doesn't just say, "Right, we've decided this, here you go," as any policy implementation will take a long time to debate, and will possibly be dismissed if certain member states are unhappy, but does the commission not have a fair bit of clout, perhaps beyond that of a standard unelected part of government? Again, could be wrong...my own knowledge of the EU is limited in certain respects as it's a much more complex organisation than a lot of people give it credit for.
The Commission's role is diminishing in relation to the other branches. I'm finishing an essay but can send you some stuff later in the week if you're interested.
 
I'd not necessarily consider it undemocratic if it was a position which made sense for us to pick instead of electing. Does the EU commission not directly propose policy, though? Obviously it doesn't just say, "Right, we've decided this, here you go," as any policy implementation will take a long time to debate, and will possibly be dismissed if certain member states are unhappy, but does the commission not have a fair bit of clout, perhaps beyond that of a standard unelected part of government? Again, could be wrong...my own knowledge of the EU is limited in certain respects as it's a much more complex organisation than a lot of people give it credit for.

To put it simply the commission is the Eu state and the commissioners are ministre/chancellors, so yes they directly propose laws who are submitted to the EU council and or the EU parliament.
 
Can you imagine your workplace going under and suddenly finding yourself on the run from the coppers? What a horrific idea, unemployment a crime. Fecking hell.

1st ep of Futurama.

OTOH:
The fact that interest rates are set by the central bank with no political accountability and a directive to combat inflation is a de-facto tolerance of unemployment. (from my limited understanding)
 
The Commission's role is diminishing in relation to the other branches. I'm finishing an essay but can send you some stuff later in the week if you're interested.

Yeah that'd be quite interesting actually, thanks!
 
I don't get it that it's billed as an 'exit fee'. Surely if we've committed to long-term funding projects, then they are paid over several years, rather than a massive lump sum upfront cost.

Kind of made me laugh (more cry) that a vox pop on the news said Britain will get great trade deals cos 'everyone loves us'. Hmm...

I don't see how continuing to pay for agreed projects until they end is an exit fee either. I suppose it's the running theme of Brexit, everyone wants answers to everything now, right away, whereas in reality we'll only learn little by little, and slowly. Still that gives lots of room for confident predictions and boasting bets about the future, so it seems to be keeping everyone happy, along with the insults of course.
 
Insults, insults....Always the bloody same with EU apologists....


So here you go for headlines

I believe in democracy – the EU is undemocratic.
I believe in Free Trade – the EU is protectionist
I believe in transparency and accountability – the EU isn’t
I believe countries should govern themselves for the benefit of their own citizens – the EU doesn’t
I believe in Lean Government – the EU is a bureaucratic nightmare
I don’t like subsidising losers – the EU loves it
I object to paying tax to rescue basket case banks and economies – the EU loves spending my tax rescuing basket case banks and economies
I believe it’s stupid to push Putin too far – the EU already has
I don’t think you can treat 28 different countries, economies and cultures as one homogenous nation – the EU thinks it can and insists that it will
I like to deal directly with my elected politicians when I have a problem with what they’re doing – the EU couldn’t give a shit about individuals’ problems
I believe unemployment is a crime – the EU encourages unemployment
I don’t like open borders – the EU insists on open borders within mainland Europe.
I like clubs that set then respect their own rules – the EU only does this when its suits them.
I don’t like vindictive ex-lover bunny boilers – the EU is proving it is a bunny boiler par excellence
I believe in helping the 3rd World economies – the EU only does it when it’s to the EU’s own benefit

Who let you out of the woodwork? #alternativefacts :wenger:
 
I dunno about group think. I know a lot of financial journos, having been in the game for over 16 years, and most are left. I'm actually historically right (no love for the current Tory party), but we're all pro-EU, barring one guy I know. Maybe it is group think, but we're all from different socio-economic, racial, religious backgrounds etc...
The assessment about group think in social science is not really in question. In social science there is a very fine line between confirming your own preconceptions by looking at the data and actually forming a view based on data. It is very difficult to work with very noisy data. There are good reasons to be pro-eu, but not all of these reasons are economical. The cultural idea of forming a post-nationalistic society, that is able to overcome the petty feuds of the past is commonly shared between people who are often part of an intellectual environment with cosmopolitan/international outlook. Thats great and I am all for that, but many people bring these values back in their field and just look for further confirmation of these ideas.
 
The assessment about group think in social science is not really in question. In social science there is a very fine line between confirming your own preconceptions by looking at the data and actually forming a view based on data. It is very difficult to work with very noisy data. There are good reasons to be pro-eu, but not all of these reasons are economical. The cultural idea of forming a post-nationalistic society, that is able to overcome the petty feuds of the past is commonly shared between people who are often part of an intellectual environment with cosmopolitan/international outlook. Thats great and I am all for that, but many people bring these values back in their field and just look for further confirmation of these ideas.

Petty feuds? WW1, WW2, and the rest, were a bit more than that.
 
Insults, insults....Always the bloody same with EU apologists....

I like to deal directly with my elected politicians when I have a problem with what they’re doing – the EU couldn’t give a shit about individuals’ problems

Spoken like someone who's had no interaction with their MP by the sounds of it.
 
Sorry but :lol:
Yep, my missus as a national of a former colonial country loved that one.
I don't see how continuing to pay for agreed projects until they end is an exit fee either. I suppose it's the running theme of Brexit, everyone wants answers to everything now, right away, whereas in reality we'll only learn little by little, and slowly. Still that gives lots of room for confident predictions and boasting bets about the future, so it seems to be keeping everyone happy, along with the insults of course.
I'm dreading two more years of conjecture and bullshit.
 
Fake news, etc, blah blah blah

It's clear from this thread that nobody has a fecking clue as to what the EU means and represents. A few highlights...

If you are remain you are a racist. Yet the EU doesn't have uncontrolled immigration with non EU countries for example in Africa...??? Work that out. Only racist to restrict immigration of europeans?

People won't work in other countries in the EU if you're from the UK, and vice versa. Sorry to break it to you this was happening a long time before the formation of the EU.

Access to the single market means no trade between UK/EU......really ffs.

Lower cost labour is only available from the EU.

loads more lol, scaremongering cnuts...
 
The assessment about group think in social science is not really in question. In social science there is a very fine line between confirming your own preconceptions by looking at the data and actually forming a view based on data. It is very difficult to work with very noisy data. There are good reasons to be pro-eu, but not all of these reasons are economical. The cultural idea of forming a post-nationalistic society, that is able to overcome the petty feuds of the past is commonly shared between people who are often part of an intellectual environment with cosmopolitan/international outlook. Thats great and I am all for that, but many people bring these values back in their field and just look for further confirmation of these ideas.
The flipside is I receive diametrically opposed info every day. Some economic consultancies, like Capital Economics or Albert Edwards at SocGen are perma-bears, while Gavekal etc always find reason to be bullish. Conflating all of that into an article can be interesting.
 
Fake news, etc, blah blah blah

It's clear from this thread that nobody has a fecking clue as to what the EU means and represents. A few highlights...

If you are remain you are a racist. Yet the EU doesn't have uncontrolled immigration with non EU countries for example in Africa...??? Work that out. Only racist to restrict immigration of europeans?

People won't work in other countries in the EU if you're from the UK, and vice versa. Sorry to break it to you this was happening a long time before the formation of the EU.

Access to the single market means no trade between UK/EU......really ffs.

Lower cost labour is only available from the EU.

loads more lol, scaremongering cnuts...

The EU has free movement between countries within the EU, and has certain criteria countries must be in order to join, and be deemed capable of joining in with that freedom of movement. If the EU wishes to expand into Africa and the countries there do meet the required criteria, then they can by all means join - of course, most of them would fall short in a number of categories.

Very few people are saying it's not going to be possible to live/work in other countries, but Brexit will make it more difficult than it is at the moment presuming freedom of movement is scrapped. Again, don't see how that's a difficult one to get.
 
The EU has free movement between countries within the EU, and has certain criteria countries must be in order to join, and be deemed capable of joining in with that freedom of movement. If the EU wishes to expand into Africa and the countries there do meet the required criteria, then they can by all means join - of course, most of them would fall short in a number of categories.

Very few people are saying it's not going to be possible to live/work in other countries, but Brexit will make it more difficult than it is at the moment presuming freedom of movement is scrapped. Again, don't see how that's a difficult one to get.

And EU members come from the Europe Council.
 
Just watching reacting from around Europe on Newsnight - they really don't give a shit about us :lol: They're gonna give us a tough time to say the least.

[No I did not post this ten minutes ago in the wrong thread :angel:]
 
In a way I'm pleased art. 50 has finally triggered because we're now going to see the true impact of Brexit and the impact on Britain. I hope I'm wrong, but thinking objectively I really think Britain is going to be a lot worse for it. For example, I know for a fact that insurers are already moving their European HQ's out of London and setting up new companies in mainland Europe.
 
Insults, insults....Always the bloody same with EU apologists....


So here you go for headlines

I believe in democracy – the EU is undemocratic.
I believe in Free Trade – the EU is protectionist
I believe in transparency and accountability – the EU isn’t
I believe countries should govern themselves for the benefit of their own citizens – the EU doesn’t
I believe in Lean Government – the EU is a bureaucratic nightmare
I don’t like subsidising losers – the EU loves it
I object to paying tax to rescue basket case banks and economies – the EU loves spending my tax rescuing basket case banks and economies
I believe it’s stupid to push Putin too far – the EU already has
I don’t think you can treat 28 different countries, economies and cultures as one homogenous nation – the EU thinks it can and insists that it will
I like to deal directly with my elected politicians when I have a problem with what they’re doing – the EU couldn’t give a shit about individuals’ problems
I believe unemployment is a crime – the EU encourages unemployment
I don’t like open borders – the EU insists on open borders within mainland Europe.
I like clubs that set then respect their own rules – the EU only does this when its suits them.
I don’t like vindictive ex-lover bunny boilers – the EU is proving it is a bunny boiler par excellence
I believe in helping the 3rd World economies – the EU only does it when it’s to the EU’s own benefit

Kinell :nervous:

Unemployment a crime? :eek:
 
Tbf, having a single interest rate and no ability for members to print their own currency is a massive economic problem. -North and South Europe are very different economies.

Having your wages inflated away buy having your currency tank isn't pleasent
 
Poor Boris, he said he believes in having your cake and eating it. Well, he's going go have tons of humble pie.
 
That's what's happening in the UK- inflation now at a four year high and I had to buy a bunch of dollars the other week. Expensive.

Right. So I don't see why when talking about Greece people make it sound like a painless option, do this and the economies fixed, when the payment comes from the poor and people on fixed incomes
 
Kinell :nervous:

Unemployment a crime? :eek:
It depends how you interpret it, allowing unemployment to reach high percentages is criminal. Especially without any policy or economic strategy in place to combat it.

Is that the eu fault, you can argue yes or no but you can definately link it.to the clubs economic policies. Is.the single currency to blame? Definately

If you try to see it from that point of view then FBR statement makes perfect sense.
 
It depends how you interpret it, allowing unemployment to reach high percentages is criminal. Especially without any policy or economic strategy in place to combat it.

Is that the eu fault, you can argue yes or no but you can definately link it.to the clubs economic policies. Is.the single currency to blame? Definately

If you try to see it from that point of view then FBR statement makes perfect sense.

Maybe/hopefully that is what he meant. Still bullshit of course as unemployment will get worse by us leaving. Plus much/most of the rest of his list is a bit bizarre.
 
Right. So I don't see why when talking about Greece people make it sound like a painless option, do this and the economies fixed, when the payment comes from the poor and people on fixed incomes

Not sure many people genuinely believe that the process Greece has been through, and is still going through, has been painless. I went to Athens last year and the very intense cabbie was ranting about austerity. The unemployment rate is frightening, people have lost part of their pensions- the situation is pretty desperate for many and ongoing.
 
Not sure many people genuinely believe that the process Greece has been through, and is still going through, has been painless. I went to Athens last year and the very intense cabbie was ranting about austerity. The unemployment rate is frightening, people have lost part of their pensions- the situation is pretty desperate for many and ongoing.

I never argued either was painless. Just those who advocate a free floating currency never mention that it too brings pain. Ireland recovered fairly well within the euro
 
I don't see how continuing to pay for agreed projects until they end is an exit fee either. I suppose it's the running theme of Brexit, everyone wants answers to everything now, right away, whereas in reality we'll only learn little by little, and slowly. Still that gives lots of room for confident predictions and boasting bets about the future, so it seems to be keeping everyone happy, along with the insults of course.

It doesn't help that the media don't explain the context and stick to a catchy phrase of exit fee.

To be fair leavers are the type of people who would commit to a group purchase only to change their mind after and leave everyone else with the bill. Simple folk mainly. Bet they skip queues on the motorway as well the cnuts.
 
She's always been wishy-washy on the whole thing. Was rumoured to support Brexit, campaigned for Remain but didn't really campaign for Remain, and became this ardent Brexiter determined to give a voice to people she wouldn't have given a feck about had their vote share been slightly less. For all her talk of holding honest Christian values, she comes across as an unconvincing flip-flopper on a level that would make even Cameron blush.
I don't think she is getting a good deal. She isn't a leader, she sounds too uncertain.
 
I don't think she is getting a good deal. She isn't a leader, she sounds too uncertain.

She isn't uncertain. How can a leader of a democratic country go against a democratic mandate and retain any credibility? Her position before is irrelevant. She is setting her stall out strongly which are basic negotiating tactics and the 'remoaners' are sh*tting the bed because they think that will be the final picture.