North Korea

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Nucks said:
It's sort of a game of one ups manship though isn't it. The more aggressive Trump appears, the more aggressive he has to appear, and if you try to out biggly Trump, he's gonna out biggly you. Soon they will be arguing about whose dad could have beat up the other. The only problem is, these two, catastrophically retarded imbeciles, have their fingers potentially on nuclear triggers.
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Well, there went every last shred of optimism I had about this whole ordeal
 
I always wondered if and when we would reach our generations Balkans conflict, i.e. the point where war becomes pretty much inevitable. If this isn't it then it's probably just around the corner.
 
I can't imagine a scenario where Trump doesn't take this olive bait for a war. A republican administration always gets one, Trump is cornered and likes blowing up thing to cultivate his celebrity. The Russia investigation might already be pushing him into desperate things.
 
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/aug/09/north-korea-v-the-us-how-likely-is-war

Here's an interesting article on the development's overnight. The people cited in the article include a bureau chief who was stationed in Pyongyang and some Northern Korean experts who argue war is not necessarily likely, that North Korean rhetoric dictates that for Kim to stay in a strong position the image of standing up to US aggression suits him, while he is actively seeking a diplomatic outcome with Trump. They all agree that sanctions have not worked in the slightest however, and increasingly it looks like the outcome will be some kind of military confrontation or a diplomatic solution, but that would require many compromises.

However, there is still the slim chance that once they start on the slanging match and calling each other out, they may both be forced into a position where action becomes a necessity. Factor in the fact that Japan, China and Russia are nearby, and that the countries in the region do not want another Korean war, it makes the whole situation very unpredictable imo. Worrying times ahead indeed.
 
FultonRed said:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/aug/09/north-korea-v-the-us-how-likely-is-war

Here's an interesting article on the development's overnight. The people cited in the article include a bureau chief who was stationed in Pyongyang and some Northern Korean experts who argue war is not necessarily likely, that North Korean rhetoric dictates that for Kim to stay in a strong position the image of standing up to US aggression suits him, while he is actively seeking a diplomatic outcome with Trump. They all agree that sanctions have not worked in the slightest however, and increasingly it looks like the outcome will be some kind of military confrontation or a diplomatic solution, but that would require many compromises.

However, there is still the slim chance that once they start on the slanging match and calling each other out, they may both be forced into a position where action becomes a necessity. Factor in the fact that Japan, China and Russia are nearby, and that the countries in the region do not want another Korean war, it makes the whole situation very unpredictable imo. Worrying times ahead indeed.
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Who is Kim strengthening himself against? Its not like he has a challenger for power within the North, there's been no evidence of an uprising from the population and it will likely remain so unless he ends up tightening the noose himself by inviting US/UN sanctions and starving an already starved population. Everything in his best interests remain in not provoking others.
 
Wednesday at Stoke said:
Who is Kim strengthening himself against? Its not like he has a challenger for power within the North, there's been no evidence of an uprising from the population and it will likely remain so unless he ends up tightening the noose himself by inviting US/UN sanctions and starving an already starved population. Everything in his best interests remain in not provoking others.
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I did think that statement was a bit strange, about the possibility of a Chinese backed coup against him, as he has no real opposition to him and I can't see anyone being brave/mental enough to take him on that way. The more I think of it though, it is a wee possibility, even if a very remote one. But I was thinking about this scenario, even if just for arguments sake.

If the situation continues to escalate to a point where action is looking inevitable, a lot could depend upon what the Chinese and others in the region want to do. If these people are correct, and war is wanted to be avoided at all costs by N. Korea's neighbors, a Chinese backed coup to oust Kim from power is a far-fetched but possible idea. That's not to say it would be successful though. I agree with you though that I don't think he has a serious challenger for power in his own population though, which makes the Chinese coup thing unlikely as I mentioned. Some of the points they raised were interesting I thought though, such as talk of attacking Guam is N Korea meeting bluster with bluster, and how things are finely balanced just now both a military conflict and a diplomatic solution are as likely as each other. The big question is with Trump, and what is real long term rationale is concerning N Korea. For the sake of everyone else, I hope we don't see the 'fire and fury' he has been championing.
 
FultonRed said:
I did think that statement was a bit strange, about the possibility of a Chinese backed coup against him, as he has no real opposition to him and I can't see anyone being brave/mental enough to take him on that way. The more I think of it though, it is a wee possibility, even if a very remote one. But I was thinking about this scenario, even if just for arguments sake.

If the situation continues to escalate to a point where action is looking inevitable, a lot could depend upon what the Chinese and others in the region want to do. If these people are correct, and war is wanted to be avoided at all costs by N. Korea's neighbors, a Chinese backed coup to oust Kim from power is a far-fetched but possible idea. That's not to say it would be successful though. I agree with you though that I don't think he has a serious challenger for power in his own population though, which makes the Chinese coup thing unlikely as I mentioned. Some of the points they raised were interesting I thought though, such as talk of attacking Guam is N Korea meeting bluster with bluster, and how things are finely balanced just now both a military conflict and a diplomatic solution are as likely as each other. The big question is with Trump, and what is real long term rationale is concerning N Korea. For the sake of everyone else, I hope we don't see the 'fire and fury' he has been championing.
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I don't buy the idea of Chinese backed coup against Kim. North Korea's existence is extremely important to China as a counter weight to put a check on South Korean and Japanese regional hegemony just as Pakistan is an ally to them as a check against Indian influence in Asia. They need those wild cards to keep everyone on the back foot. North Korea is their buffer from having a US military unit close to the East China sea which is a strategically important trade route for them.
 
Wednesday at Stoke said:
I can't imagine a scenario where Trump doesn't take this olive bait for a war. A republican administration always gets one, Trump is cornered and likes blowing up thing to cultivate his celebrity. The Russia investigation might already be pushing him into desperate things.
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well sending US troops into the only (non landlocked) country in the world that borders both China and Russia would almost certainly distract from other stories... probably for a couple of election cycles :nervous:
I do not see this ending well
 
Wednesday at Stoke said:
I don't buy the idea of Chinese backed coup against Kim. North Korea's existence is extremely important to China as a counter weight to put a check on South Korean and Japanese regional hegemony just as Pakistan is an ally to them as a check against Indian influence in Asia. They need those wild cards to keep everyone on the back foot. North Korea is their buffer from having a US military unit close to the East China sea which is a strategically important trade route for them.
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strategically perhaps a more logical option (though one that will inevitably kill fek loads of people in the short term is that China invades North Korea - takes over the running of the economy and stations troops there... nobody could / would stop them and they would probably then start using their trading influence on south korea to start getting the usa troops removed from the korean peninsular... its just if they want the inevitable cluster fek of a problem that sorting North Korea will be - I think once the existing state collapses we will see probably the biggest humanitarian crisis since ww2 and I doube any country really has the appetite to resolve it - but militarily speaking china can step in quicker than anybody else just down to logistics
 
Wednesday at Stoke said:
I don't buy the idea of Chinese backed coup against Kim. North Korea's existence is extremely important to China as a counter weight to put a check on South Korean and Japanese regional hegemony just as Pakistan is an ally to them as a check against Indian influence in Asia. They need those wild cards to keep everyone on the back foot. North Korea is their buffer from having a US military unit close to the East China sea which is a strategically important trade route for them.
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Don't get me wrong, as I said it is a very remote possibility and not one I buy either really, was just discussing the scenario of that for arguments sake. In all honesty I have not the slightest clue how this is going to play out. The optimist in me says that everyone will realize the futility of just imposing sanctions on N. Korea and to try and take things diplomatically. The pessimist in me says that Trump is taking a beating from all sides and could really focus on this to make a distraction to take the pressure of himself, and that military conflict of some sort is not far away at all. Scary times my friends.
 
sun_tzu said:
Millions of non Americans so more like 50-50 it will happen... if North Korea turns Muslim or finds fek loads of oil then the anti terrorist / freedom mission is 100% happening
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No way Kim allows someone to be worshipped higher than him.
 
When the lads have finished their cock measuring contest, it's possible there will be a lot more barren wasteground.

I'm off to play Fallout
 
I suppose it's worth pointing out that Trump has sole, but not unilateral power to order a nuclear strike. As Secretary of Defence, Matthis has to provide a secondary confirmation of the order. Should he resign at the request, or be fired for refusing to second it then a new Secretary of Defence would have to be confirmed by Congress before Trump's order could proceed. I suppose that provides a small, extra crumb of comfort should it go that far.

Edit: Reading about this further, it's actually not necessarily as I just said :( The rules for what happens if Trump has to fire Matthis are unclear. He might just have to get the Deputy Secretary to co-confirm and so on down the chain of command. Oh well.
 
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golden_blunder said:
When the lads have finished their cock measuring contest, it's possible there will be a lot more barren wasteground.
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Really the most disgusting thing here. I don't mean their cocks, but that it's a bunch of blokes potentially fecking up a stunning planet and ending so many lives. And for what?
 
Also, I'm guessing we wouldn't know about it until it's happened, right? That's a given. Which makes it even scarier.
 
Ekkie Thump said:
I suppose it's worth pointing out that Trump has sole, but not unilateral power to order a nuclear strike. As Secretary of Defence, Matthis has to provide a secondary confirmation of the order. Should he resign at the request, or be fired for refusing to second it then a new secretary of defence would have to be confirmed by Congress before Trump's order could proceed. I suppose that provides a small, extra crumb of comfort should it go that far.

Edit: Reading about this further, it's actually not necessarily as I just said :( The rules for what happens if Trump has to fire Matthis are unclear. He might just have to get the Deputy secretary to co-confirm and so on down the chain of command.
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Next in line at Defense is Mr. Patrick Shanahan, former Boeing exec. That's who we're all depending on.

Ever since the Mattis-Kelly pact story, I'm suspecting that even if unspoken, between Mattis, Dunford and any other relevant CINCs there could be a sense of "let's hold off on doing anything stupid and delay things".
 
Especially when you consider the nature of nuclear weapons. It take years and years of development to modernize a nuclear arsenal. Trump can't have done anything substantial within the nine months or so he's been president.
 
There was a news story about how launch codes were stored in floppy disks. THere's a good chance Kushner might have copied them to disk and called it a grand success to the great emperor.
 
Rado_N said:
Jesus Christ, this is terrifying.

Also re the first one, surely bullshit too? Even if he made that order would it be possible to make much progress inside this time frame?
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There's really no way to know since much of that stuff happens without public knowledge.
 
The ironic thing is that Trump is very much going for the Nixon style "mad man" approach to foreign affairs. The same style the North Korean regime has been deploying since the fifties :lol:
 
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