North Korea

[senorgregster]

Not even NK would be stupid enough to trade nuclear technology with Isis/terrorists. Terrorist organisations don't have the infrastructure to build a bomb themselves and any sold nuclear material has a distinct signature that can be identified. Any country is responsible for its nuclear weapons. Isis or NK using such a bomb has the same outcome: the destruction of the original producer, which would be NK.
Maybe it's just time to accept that NK has nuclear weapons regardless of how bad that is. Any military intervention is a huge gamble that NK doesn't retaliate against Seoul. It's just not worth it taking that risk.

I think you can add Japan to the list of easy targets, albeit harder than Seoul.

 

[Zarlak]

If you give China enough incentive, they could pull a Tywin Lannister here. Ask the fat man to open the gates for them and then off everyone from the inside.

Spoilers ffs.

 

[711]

I'd be more worried about him implying if sanctions were not lifted they might consider selling wmd technology to Isis etc...

And from the other angle, where did NK get it's nuclear weapon technology and materials from? He must have allies now, and ones unafraid to help him.
I presume it's known, but I've not seen too much about it.

 

[KM]

Hopefully
But I'm less sure that trump isn't stupid enough to attack nk
Best case scenario they obliterate Seoul and unleash chemical weapons and maybe even a nuke on tokyo.
Worst case scenario it escalates into ww3 with Russia and China squaring up to USA.

Great best case scenario here dude.

 

[sun_tzu]

Not even NK would be stupid enough to trade nuclear technology with Isis/terrorists.

Maybe but material for a dirty bomb... Or even vx or sarin for example... It's a powerful threat and one that I could see them doing

 

[sun_tzu]

Great best case scenario here dude.

Hey if trump attacks I don't think there is anyway a fek ton of innocent people in the region dont die... But America first etc perhaps he will see that as acceptable collateral damage

 

[JustAFan]

And from the other angle, where did NK get it's nuclear weapon technology and materials from? He must have allies now, and ones unafraid to help him.
I presume it's known, but I've not seen too much about it.

They began their program in the 60's. Had some stops and restarts along the way. Got some nuclear reactors from their allies Russia and China. It is well known how to builds the bomb, so it's just a matter of getting some of the equipment (Pakistan, china, Russia) needed to prepare the materials.

 

[JustAFan]

So far the Redcafe defense committee STOP NUCLEAR WAR plan seems to be

1)Send in undercover Chinese martial artist back by American money to overthrow North Korean government - Operation B.L.I.N.D a.k.a Bruce Lee Is Not Dead.

2) Blow up North Korea

3)Find out the Chinese government views on North Korea

To answer #3 their view has been known since the first Korean War (started by North Korea) and how they have backed them 100% ever since.

 

[JustAFan]

I'm sure the Chinese are quite content with their postition. They're not being threatened. The US, South Korea and Japan have no solution without Chinese agreement. They're sitting pretty.

In a situation they helped create when they and Russia both created and propped up the NK Royalty.

 

[JustAFan]

I'll admit I have never delved deep down in this subject - why would China defend NK?

At they very least go find out how and why NK exists and who has put and kept the Kim's in power and read a bosic outline of the first Korean War.

 

[PedroMendez]

Maybe but material for a dirty bomb... Or even vx or sarin for example... It's a powerful threat and one that I could see them doing

they could have sold vx or sarin in the past. No country is going to sell nuclear material to jihadi terrorists. Its a death-sentence for the country and there is no significant upside to such a trade.

 

[Raoul]

I'm sure the Chinese are quite content with their postition. They're not being threatened. The US, South Korea and Japan have no solution without Chinese agreement. They're sitting pretty.

I doubt they're content given that a nuclear confrontation could take place a few hundred miles from their border with North Korea. China has just as much to lose as anyone else does.

 

[Wednesday at Stoke]

Spoilers ffs.

That was a timeline from before when game of thrones universe starts.

 

[711]

I doubt they're content given that a nuclear confrontation could take place a few hundred miles from their border with North Korea. China has just as much to lose as anyone else does.

Yeah, I think what I said was valid once, but things are escalating fast with deliverable H bombs. My thinking's now changed to 'China won't be so happy any more but there's not a right lot they can do about it'.

 

[Javi]

And from the other angle, where did NK get it's nuclear weapon technology and materials from? He must have allies now, and ones unafraid to help him.
I presume it's known, but I've not seen too much about it.

It's said to come from the Khan network in Pakistan.

 

[Ian Reus]

China don't want the north being controlled by south Korea (which would probably happen should Kim fall) as it would likely mean US troops on their border.

 

[horsechoker]

China don't want the north being controlled by south Korea (which would probably happen should Kim fall) as it would likely mean US troops on their border.

Surely they could work out a buffer zone in NK between SK/US and China. US and SK control half and China control half. That way there's still part of Korea between SK and China and US troops aren't right on the border.

 

[Ian Reus]

Surely they could work out a buffer zone in NK between SK/US and China. US and SK control half and China control half. That way there's still part of Korea between SK and China and US troops aren't right on the border.

Would be the logical thing to do but i doubt China trusts the US not to try use it to their advantage.

 

[sun_tzu]

Surely they could work out a buffer zone in NK between SK/US and China. US and SK control half and China control half. That way there's still part of Korea between SK and China and US troops aren't right on the border.

Why would us troops need to be in south Korea at all if the regime was toppled in north Korea?

 

[horsechoker]

Would be the logical thing to do but i doubt China trusts the US not to try use it to their advantage.

Maybe but the alternative of having a mad dictator with nuclear weapons next door seems worse.

Why would us troops need to be in south Korea at all if the regime was toppled in north Korea?

To protect South Korea and Japan because the US probably won't let go of its foothold in East Asia.

 

[711]

It's said to come from the Khan network in Pakistan.

who developed their own against other's wishes, of course. I suppose the lesson is that the US just ain't as powerful as it thinks it is.

 

[sun_tzu]

To protect South Korea and Japan because the US probably won't let go of its foothold in East Asia.

I suspect that's a deal breaker for getting any Chinese assistance

 

[JustAFan]

Surely they could work out a buffer zone in NK between SK/US and China. US and SK control half and China control half. That way there's still part of Korea between SK and China and US troops aren't right on the border.

They have that now

 

[Will Absolute]

Maybe it's just time to accept that NK has nuclear weapons regardless of how bad that is. Any military intervention is a huge gamble that NK doesn't retaliate against Seoul. It's just not worth it taking that risk.

NK keeps building bombs. And eventually a lunatic regime holds the lives of tens, or even hundreds, of millions of people in cities all over the western world in its hands. They live or die at the whim of the Great Leader.

If we end up accepting that scenario it'll be quite an achievement for western diplomacy!

 

[Raoul]

NK keeps building bombs. And eventually a lunatic regime holds the lives of tens, or even hundreds, of millions of people in cities all over the western world in its hands. They live or die at the whim of the Great Leader.

If we end up accepting that scenario it'll be quite an achievement for western diplomacy!

How would you propose this be resolved without a massive war and millions of casualties ?

 

[sun_tzu]

How would you propose this be resolved without a massive war and millions of casualties ?

Well the easy way would seem to be to aquiesse to nk demands... probably lifting sanctions etc.

Of course the bigger problem is then perhaps Iran revisits it's weapons programme... and perhaps people like Saudi who are investing in nuclear power think about weapons programmes etc... so long term it's not a solution at all

 

[Raoul]

Well the easy way would seem to be to aquiesse to nk demands... probably lifting sanctions etc.

Of course the bigger problem is then perhaps Iran revisits it's weapons programme... and perhaps people like Saudi who are investing in nuclear power think about weapons programmes etc... so long term it's not a solution at all

That wouldn't solve the problem when Kim's ultimate goal is to reunify Korea under NK's totalitarian standards which is obviously not going to happen. If you capitulate to his demands, the next set of irrational demands will only double in scope, during which he will continue to accrue increasingly deadlier nukes.

 

[sun_tzu]

That wouldn't solve the problem when Kim's ultimate goal is to reunify Korea under NK's totalitarian standards which is obviously not going to happen. If you capitulate to his demands, the next set of irrational demands will only double in scope, during which he will continue to accrue increasingly deadlier nukes.

Well none of us know his ultimate aim... my own guess would be to solidify his grip on power and have nukes to prevent a Libya type situation rather than expansionism.. .
But my hypothesis... like yours is just a guess

 

[JustAFan]

Well the easy way would seem to be to aquiesse to nk demands... probably lifting sanctions etc.

Of course the bigger problem is then perhaps Iran revisits it's weapons programme... and perhaps people like Saudi who are investing in nuclear power think about weapons programmes etc... so long term it's not a solution at all

So we lift sanctions and still have NK with the bomb

Essentially nothing we can do about it at this point he has them and will not give them up.

 

[senorgregster]

Well none of us know his ultimate aim... my own guess would be to solidify his grip on power and have nukes to prevent a Libya type situation rather than expansionism.. .
But my hypothesis... like yours is just a guess

Ultimate aim will be a nuke capable of hitting any coordinate on Earth.

 

[JustAFan]

Well none of us know his ultimate aim... my own guess would be to solidify his grip on power and have nukes to prevent a Libya type situation rather than expansionism.. .
But my hypothesis... like yours is just a guess

How much more solid a grip does the regime need? It's not like their program began when he came to power and it started well before Libya. People need to stop pretending the situation on the Penisula is some new development. They have a dynastic grip on power, that has been in place since the old USSR put them in power and with China's help made sure they stayed in power.

They made the first steps in their nuclear program in the 60's and ramped it up in the late 80's early 90's.

 

[Silva]

Why would us troops need to be in south Korea at all if the regime was toppled in north Korea?

Why are US troops still stationed in European countries that haven't seen war in decades? It's in their interest to have a military presence in as much of the world as possible.

 

[Raoul]

Well none of us know his ultimate aim... my own guess would be to solidify his grip on power and have nukes to prevent a Libya type situation rather than expansionism.. .
But my hypothesis... like yours is just a guess

Mine isn't a guess, its been the consistent policy of North Korea from Kim's grandad to his Dad, to Kim himself. He obviously wants to stay in power but the entire purpose of existing is to eventually reunify under conditions the Kim family deems appropriate - namely a complete rejection of "imperialist forces" (ie. the U.S.), which means an embrace of totalitarian policies of the Kim family.

 

[sun_tzu]

Why are US troops still stationed in European countries that haven't seen war in decades? It's in their interest to have a military presence in as much of the world as possible.

Indeed... over 1000 military bases worldwide I believe...
Hegemony or survival as Chomsky hypothesized

 

[JustAFan]

Why are US troops still stationed in European countries that haven't seen war in decades? It's in their interest to have a military presence in as much of the world as possible.

US troops stayed in Europe because neither the US nor the European governments have pushed for an end to NATO. For a wide variety of reasons of course including maintaining a powerful presence.

Same as Russia when they made noises about establishing bases in Venezuela a few years ago and as we see with China making moves to establish bases further away from the mainland China.

 

[Will Absolute]

How would you propose this be resolved without a massive war and millions of casualties ?

I'm not a military expert. But clearly procrastination has not served us well in the past: the situation has continued to deteriorate, and the stakes have grown bigger with every passing year.

This is the last chance saloon. A realistic evaluation of military options should be undertaken, with the objective of neutralizing NK's nuclear capability. If such a strike is possible, it should be accompanied with a warning to the NK regime that any retaliation against the South will result in its own destruction.

There's no safe way to handle this threat. A do nothing policy transforms a smaller risk in the present into a greater risk in the future. The chickens may never come home to roost, but what if they do? Nuclear Fried Chicken.

 

[Raoul]

I'm not a military expert. But clearly procrastination has not served us well in the past: the situation has continued to deteriorate, and the stakes have grown bigger with every passing year.

This is the last chance saloon. A realistic evaluation of military options should be undertaken, with the objective of neutralizing NK's nuclear capability. If such a strike is possible, it should be accompanied with a warning to the NK regime that any retaliation against the South will result in its own destruction.

There's no safe way to handle this threat. A do nothing policy transforms a smaller risk in the present into a greater risk in the future. The chickens may never come home to roost, but what if they do? Nuclear Fried Chicken.

I think one way to go about it would be to create a UN Resolution that severely sanctions NK through an embargo - where crucially, China is an active participant. Kim gets a vast majority of his money and goods from China, so cutting him off where it hurts would create a lot of discomfort among the elites who undergird his domestic support.

 

[Dan]

 

[711]

Why are US troops still stationed in European countries that haven't seen war in decades? It's in their interest to have a military presence in as much of the world as possible.

In the interest of balance you should also say that said European countries welcome the presence of US troops, and those troops would leave any time if asked.

 

[Raoul]

Won't happen as U.S. and Chinese trade is too interdependent. It would hurt both countries. Basically, Trump is an idiot.