Have you missed the part that half of Seoul is destroyed within minutes from fixed artillery positions and millions perish? That is even if there are no operational nuclear devices. Which is a pretty big assumption that nobody will make. Even if the possibility is low, the loss would be enormous so once the adversary has displayed capability to produce a nuclear a device, you have to assume it can be deployed already. Also , your thinking that this would be a 2003 Iraq style invasion is completely wrong. This country has been preparing 60 years for resumption of war (because it never officially ended). Literaly, that's all they have been doing as a national priority. And, also one big immovable object nearby: China. If US invades, they have no other option but to help NK, as before.
North Korea
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Have you missed the part that half of Seoul is destroyed within minutes from fixed artillery positions and millions perish? That is even if there are no operational nuclear devices. Which is a pretty big assumption that nobody will make. Even if the possibility is low, the loss would be enormous so once the adversary has displayed capability to produce a nuclear a device, you have to assume it can be deployed already. Also , your thinking that this would be a 2003 Iraq style invasion is completely wrong. This country has been preparing 60 years for resumption of war (because it never officially ended). Literaly, that's all they have been doing as a national priority. And, also one big immovable object nearby: China. If US invades, they have no other option but to help NK, as before.
They were cheating all along. Sorry if the facts bother you so much that you need to runaway from them.
The capability of the NK army is poor. As is their equipment.
It's all propaganda. They are backwards and would get anhilated IMO.
They just developed a thermonuclear weapon FFS. They also tested several ICBM's. Those facts were unanimously confirmed. But you think it's propaganda? People thinking that they are in the stone age is one of the problems here. They have stolen or been gifted enough know-how to produce this and more.
Not sure China would help NK, though they might invade if the US were to militarily attack. I don't think China wants to occupy Korea I think they just don't want US missiles any closer to their border. Neither does Russia for that matter.
I still expect lifting of Sanctions to work as for me there is no wins in this situation with military action only likely losers. Unless..... the long term game plan was all along to get Japan to increase it's military as a counter to China in that part of the world using an aggressive Korea as the justification.
I still expect lifting of Sanctions to work as for me there is no wins in this situation with military action only likely losers. Unless..... the long term game plan was all along to get Japan to increase it's military as a counter to China in that part of the world using an aggressive Korea as the justification.
I have said in other posts, the linking of US/ROK military exercises to NK's Nuclear Program is quite silly. It reminds me of the same silliness that went on during the Cold War when both sides would complain about the other side's training exercises, but always say their own were just fine. Military's train. China just finished a large scale naval exercise in the area a month or two ago. North Korea has their training also.
War is not the answer here, everyone loses if that happens, not saying WW3 would start, just saying their would be no winner given the likely devastation that would take place at the very least in both Korea's and likely in neighboring nations as well.
The US needs to promise to continue what it has always done, NOT attack North Korea unless they or their allies are attacked first. Agree to open up trade with the North while at the same time the North gives up it's nukes. They can still maintain their other armed forces which are enough to cause the South to give pause to any aggression against the North. Ideally then the North and the South begin talks on open the border between the two, over time this will lead to a linking of the two economies and a reconnection of the two people's which will continue to lesson the chance of war there.
After that who knows what the future holds.
I don't think the Chinese Foreign Minister was talking about military training. He went on to say this later at the same conference:
The major powers that aren't American allies generally see the THAAD system as an explicit act of aggression which undermines international security in multiple regions, as I understand it.
@horsechoker I used to have a Super Soaker 200 - the extra capacity meant there was only ever going to be one winner during playground wars in the summer 
It's in the sentence you bolded, military exercise is just a longer way of saying training.
I understand their concern about THAAD, but on the other hand THAAD would not be there without the North Korean's missile and nuke program. It is something that can be removed if the situation changes, and the US side should be willing to accept it's removal if North Korea gives up it's programs.
Again it sort of reminds me of the Cold War days when the two sides (US and USSR BOTH) would piss and moan about the destabilizing effects of the other side's missile defense programs, while at the same time stating their own programs were for purely defensive/peaceful purposes.
Officially they have a problem with the extremely powerful radars this system uses, since they can be utilized to track air activity deep into Chinese territory. Unofficially, I think , they fear it can be used to intercept early stage of ICBMs launched from china. Whether this is in the capability of THAAD I don't know.
That being said, ROK has no other option but to deploy these. I doubt this system will be used as a bargaining chip.
Probably AEGIS-capable destroyers?
There will be more to this...
I'd put money on it being an Arms deal Obama had put in place and Trump's contribution is essentially "not cancelling it"
I await the tweet confirming this.
What on earth are you talking about? Not only DID China already go to war with the US over NK's survival once (at a time when China was only just recovering from the ravages of WW2 and was hopelessly outmatched technologically), but since then China has exploded in terms of growth of power and wealth. Most importantly China is building its own sphere of influence and has made it quite clear that the opinions of the US on the matter are of secondary importance to them. Check out their adventuring in the South China Sea for some very clear evidence of that. They've publicly stated that they'll defend NK if they are attacked, and we have to assume they mean exactly what they say just like they did last time.
The US military is the strongest on earth by a very comfortable margin, but like any military force it requires things like basing and logistics support of course. If China are serious about defending NK, do we expect them to simply sit and watch as the US builds an invasion force in SK? If it then comes to conflict, should we just expect them not to attack the airfields and supply dumps and communications sites in SK that the US are relying on? They have thousands of planes and would be routing from considerably closer than the US.
Trying to fight a war on the Chinese border against a hostile China would be an extraordinarily difficult thing for the US to do. Even discounting nuclear weapons (which we absolutely shouldn't), China has the military technology to do huge harm to US naval and land forces in the region.
Not to mention their extremely extensive air defense grid.
http://www.popularmechanics.com/mil...-air-war-over-korea-would-look-like-15293363/
South Korea already has AEGIS integrated destroyers https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sejong_the_Great-class_destroyer
Now that is a probable win for Trump, can almost hear him saying more 'jobs for Americans' or more likely US companies!
You have more experience fighting a war than Donald Trump@horsechoker I used to have a Super Soaker 200 - the extra capacity meant there was only ever going to be one winner during playground wars in the summer
Thanks, was not aware of that. Anyway, they can be updated to the latest revision.
My understanding is that while the results are similar, perceptions are different now because in many cases the US has been the one initiating things e.g. withdrawing from the ABM treaty to "protect the American people", with the widespread installation of THAAD as one of the main results of that. Is that a mischaracterisation of the US' intentions and acts since then?
From what I understand, their (and Russia's) major concern is that it's an offensive weapon disguised as a defensive one, which lends it a great deal of legitimacy in the Western political world and poses a long-term threat to national security as a result.
He did say an increased amount.
The 'if's' and 'but's' surrounding North Korea are legion! Over half a century ago theoretical Communism fought pseudo Capitalism to a standstill on the 39th Parallel, it was also a facing off between primarily East and West cultures and all sorts of other divides in how society's then worked, or might operate in future, given the nuclear age that was unfolding.
China desperate to halt any advance of western imperialism as they called it then, backed a local dictator as leader of North Korea, confident they would always hold the puppet strings. Half a century later nothing much has really changed, except the grandson of the dictator has taken his grandfather's ideology of self reliance to the extreme, he is now on the brink of being able to tell the USA to go... and the Chinese that he now controls his own strings, in effect the puppet is now controlling the puppet-master.
Be careful about what you wish for was never more apt!
China desperate to halt any advance of western imperialism as they called it then, backed a local dictator as leader of North Korea, confident they would always hold the puppet strings. Half a century later nothing much has really changed, except the grandson of the dictator has taken his grandfather's ideology of self reliance to the extreme, he is now on the brink of being able to tell the USA to go... and the Chinese that he now controls his own strings, in effect the puppet is now controlling the puppet-master.
Be careful about what you wish for was never more apt!
Further back than the time span I quoted in regards to the evolution of the relationship of all the countries involved.
The US does have bases and logistical support in the region, as I implied. And I don't think China is serious about defending NK, as I also pointed out.
Ignoring all the points I made doesn't really help your argument.
South Korean Navy is wholly comprised of vessels made by domestic entities - Daewoo, Hyundai etc
What they spend a lot of money is buying fighter planes from the US (they'll be getting the F-35) They've been after AESA tech from Lockheed, but were knocked back - who knows, they might be allowed to get that tech now.
They're also developing their own fighter.
The point I'm apparently ignoring is simply your personal opinion that China isn't serious about defending North Korea despite the fact they've done exactly this in the past when they were far less of a match for the US, and despite them publicly saying they'd do so again.
So if you want to debate that point, you're going to have to make a stronger case than just saying 'That is absurd, and ignores the past 40 years or so of geopolitics'. What exactly leads you to the conclusion that China would be willing to lose massive amounts of face by reneging on its promises and allowing the US to solidify its sphere of influence over East Asia? Especially considering China are currently aggressively following a policy of widening their own sphere of influence by gaining dominance over the South China Sea despite vocal opposition from the US, Japan and many of its neighbours.
Interesting that Japan has gotten AESA, and I believe quite a while ago.
P
i assume he means that existing orders are going through. Things he does not need to give his approval for.
i assume he means that existing orders are going through. Things he does not need to give his approval for.
of for sure...hence the 'allow'. These are deals which have been stuck in limbo or previously knocked back.
step 1 - impose as tough a sanctions as possible.
2/ sanction the countries and businesses that support them.
3. Send aid if people are starving etc
4.build the best missile defence systems around NK and help countries such as south Korea and Japan with preparedness for an attack if it comes.
5. Define a defence strategy signed by all nations that any attack nuclear or otherwise on any countries will lead to immediate attack.
6. Try some covert strategies - I.e pay diplomats or anyone to the top of government in NK to influence better actions.
7. Offer incentives to stop nuclear programme
Once this is done what's left for them? Sitting there with a collapsed economy, surrounded by missile defence systems and in house political turmoil....and OK a nuclear bomb that would be suicide to use and will have a very high chance of being shot down if the missile defense systems work.
2/ sanction the countries and businesses that support them.
3. Send aid if people are starving etc
4.build the best missile defence systems around NK and help countries such as south Korea and Japan with preparedness for an attack if it comes.
5. Define a defence strategy signed by all nations that any attack nuclear or otherwise on any countries will lead to immediate attack.
6. Try some covert strategies - I.e pay diplomats or anyone to the top of government in NK to influence better actions.
7. Offer incentives to stop nuclear programme
Once this is done what's left for them? Sitting there with a collapsed economy, surrounded by missile defence systems and in house political turmoil....and OK a nuclear bomb that would be suicide to use and will have a very high chance of being shot down if the missile defense systems work.
How do you ensure who gets the aid?
Sincerely hope this thread goes cold for a while. 30 odd posts scares the $hit out of me.
Mark my words.
Iran is going to get bombed long before anyone thinks seriously about attacking NK.
If you mean anyone other than the current occupant of the WH, then yes. Because you can be sure, he is definitely thinking about it.
There are two nut jobs in power. It will take a simple mistake and millions will die.
Depends on how you look it, and of course that means each nation will look it through it's own prism. The US withdrew, according to itself, due to the need to worry about non-USSR states developing missile technology. Not sure of the offensive capabilities of THAAD, whether it has the abilities other than intercepting missiles (and even those capabilities are still in question). But it really is the same old argument about missile defense systems, that they somehow are destabilizing when they are the other guys, but nicely defensive/peaceful systems when they are your own.
With THAAD in South Korea it becomes a question of what is the cause and what it effect? Would SK have agreed to THAAD without the NK nuke and missile program?
It does not . It is purely kinetic energy based system, missiles do not even have warheads.
Kim and the elites will be alright. Only normal civilians that just want to live in peace will suffer from what you propose.
No solution to this as many have said before. Let them be as long as they don't attack anyone.
Instead of all of these, you can just have China agree to very strong economic sanctions that cut off materials and supplies to Kim, his ciricle of elites, and military. That would create immense pressure for him to capitulate - both from the outside (U.S./China/ROK etc) and the inside.
So I know there's no opposition in NK. Is there no general who could arrange a coup with Western support?