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Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?


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To be fair at one point they were talking about the divorce bill at 100bn

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...00bn-eu27-demands-contributions-a7714436.html
They are the same thing aren't they? Or rather, the €100bn figure was really a €60bn with assets and rebates

https://www.ft.com/content/29fc1abc-2fe0-11e7-9555-23ef563ecf9a

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The EU dropped a few costs, including the cost of relocating UK-based EU agencies, and something else that I am forgetting.

The UK is going to change the way that the EU pensions are being calculated, or something.

The majority of the bill will be paid over the transitional period to make it seem like we're getting something for something.
 
What did the thick feck Davis actually think was going to happen? Did he expect the EU to turn around and just go 'Ooohh, he was sneaky, he got us good there!'.

Him, May and that crowd are all scared of the Hardliners and will say anything just to give a bit of breathing space. It's not only Davis, he was told to say this and fluffed his lines a bit. Hoped they'd at least get through Xmas without too much bother but they forget that the world is listening and even more so that the EU summit is this week, it's just desperation now.
 
Michel Barnier speech:

http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_SPEECH-17-5249_en.htm

At press conference in reply to question whether it was possible to sign a trade deal on 30 March 2019 he replied:

David Davis, of course, has experience of European matters. We were ministers of European affairs at the same time ... he knows perfectly well what is possible and what is not possible. What we are dealing with in the negotiation is precisely the organisation of an orderly withdrawal, taking account of the future relationship.

In other words, by working seriously in a precise fashion without losing time, in October of next year, 2018, we can reach a treaty, a draft treaty which would then have to be ratified between October and March 2019, as at 29th March 2019, at midnight at 11pm UK time, the UK will become a third country. So we have less than a year to conclude an article 50 treaty. That will deal with the organisation of the orderly withdrawal, based henceforth on the joint report, an agreement on a possible transition period, and we will start negotiating the content of and framework for that as the council wishes as of February.

That will be the content of the treaty. I think that this treaty will be accompanied by a political declaration, and I dare say that is what David Davis is referring to, which will describe the framework for our future relationship. A political declaration. But it cannot be anything else. In technical, legal terms it simply is not possible to do anything else. And David Davis knows that full well.

So we will need more time, and that’s where the transition period could come in useful, to begin and conclude a negotiation on a free trade agreement. But we will need more time.

Last part!!:
So we will need more time, and that’s where the transition period could come in useful, to begin and conclude a negotiation on a free trade agreement. But we will need more time.
 
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And the link with the Army, is?

The point is for me that the EU is fundamentally undemocratic as it pushes towards political union, a union that must replace national militaries and independent financial centres.
The EU military would also have freedom of movement to strike any uppity Scots or maybe Catalans for daring to say at a future date they wanted self determination.
The phase the EU is in now, it cannot openly say this but political union suggests a Central Empire but where will it's future democratic credentials lie?

Any project has a timeline when things are meant to happen, where is the EU's timeline?
 
The point is for me that the EU is fundamentally undemocratic as it pushes towards political union, a union that must replace national militaries and independent financial centres.
The EU military would also have freedom of movement to strike any uppity Scots or maybe Catalans for daring to say at a future date they wanted self determination.
The phase the EU is in now, it cannot openly say this but political union suggests a Central Empire but where will it's future democratic credentials lie?

Any project has a timeline when things are meant to happen, where is the EU's timeline?

I shouldn't even respond but:

- The EU isn't undemocratic and doesn't push for anything, the member states are the ones pushing for a deeper union.
- That one is actually stupid, why would the EU army, if it was ever created, would be a bigger threat to uppity Scots and Catalans when the British and Spanish armies aren't really a threat to current uppity Scots and Catalans? It also goes against international laws.
- It cannot predict what future member states leaders will do, one way or the other. The EU could disappear or deepen.

As for a timeline, you will have ask that question to the undemocratic EU council, that is made of elected heads of states, they do one every year.
 
Should the UK refuse to pay up, what could the EU do ? Presumably they would look for arbitration but could they impose a veto/boycott/ban on imports from the UK, which would I imagine lead to the danger of an all out trade war ?
 
Should the UK refuse to pay up, what could the EU do ? Presumably they would look for arbitration but could they impose a veto/boycott/ban on imports from the UK, which would I imagine lead to the danger of an all out trade war ?

A trade war which the EU would comfortably win. There's little doubt that the EU will suffer if the UK falls out onto WTO rules without an agreement, but the point is that the UK will suffer a great deal more. I believe people in recent weeks have somewhat underestimated the incentive that exists to make leaving the institution as painful and unenviable as possible and the role that will play in the coming months.

On the divorce bill itself, it wouldn't surprise me if Davis' loose lips leads to an insistence that it's paid for in its entirety before anything is concluded, dashing the sweetener to the back-benchers that it may well be incremental payments over a number of years. Indeed I wouldn't be terribly shocked if the EU now successfully pin down the government to such a pledge before even initiating 'phase 2' talks.
 
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Should the UK refuse to pay up, what could the EU do ? Presumably they would look for arbitration but could they impose a veto/boycott/ban on imports from the UK, which would I imagine lead to the danger of an all out trade war ?
The UK will be paying the bulk of the brexit bill within the proposed transitional period, both because that will help placate the uk voters that they are paying for something tangible, and because that's what a lot of the brexit bill is for anyway (EU membership).

The answer, therefore, is self contained. If we came to agreements with the EU, then refused to pay, they'd potentially void the transitional agreement, and the future deep and comprehensive free trade agreements.

There is however, another word for countries that refuse to pay their debts; defaulting. Argentina recently wanted to selectively repay it's debts and were placed a restricted default category.

Subsequently, though Argentina wanted to repay some creditors, the judgment prevented Argentina from doing so, because being forced to repay all creditors, including the holdouts, would have totaled around $100 billion. The country was therefore categorized as being in selective default by Standard & Poor's and in restricted default by Fitch.[9][10]The ruling affected New York law Argentine bonds; Argentine bonds issued under Buenos Aires and European law were not affected.[11][12]

Proposed solutions include seeking waivers of the RUFO clause from bondholders, or waiting for the RUFO clause to expire at the end of 2014.[8] The dilemma raised concerns internationally about the ability of a small minority to forestall an otherwise-agreed debt restructuring of an insolvent country,[8] and the ruling that led to it was widely criticized both within the United States and internationally. Although the media widely reported that the default ended with payments to the principal bondholders in early 2016, during the presidency of Mauricio Macri, several hundred million dollars in outstanding defaulted bonds remained unpaid, which resulted in continuation of litigation. In November 2016 Argentina announced that it had settled with additional creditors for US$475 million. [13]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argentine_debt_restructuring#Argentina_2014_"selective_default"
 
The UK will be paying the bulk of the brexit bill within the proposed transitional period, both because that will help placate the uk voters that they are paying for something tangible, and because that's what a lot of the brexit bill is for anyway (EU membership).

The answer, therefore, is self contained. If we came to agreements with the EU, then refused to pay, they'd potentially void the transitional agreement, and the future deep and comprehensive free trade agreements.

There is however, another word for countries that refuse to pay their debts; defaulting. Argentina recently wanted to selectively repay it's debts and were placed a restricted default category.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argentine_debt_restructuring#Argentina_2014_"selective_default"
I dont think the comparison with Argentina is particularly helpful. Defaulting on government debt is quite different to not making budget contributions.
 
I dont think the comparison with Argentina is particularly helpful. Defaulting on government debt is quite different to not making budget contributions.
You are probably right. Then we are back to the first option. Legal consequences and being eventually ejected from the transitional agreement and any future trade deal.
 
I like the fact the EU are showing up Davis for the idiot that he is. You cannot just go off spouting like that when the situation is so finely poised.

I find it rather ironic how British people think the whole world should speak English but don't realise that also means nothing you say goes unnoticed abroad.

Davis would have been sacked in any other job by now or in any other UK parliament.

At this stage I would not trust David Davis to run a whist drive at the British Legion never mind a position within government.

He'd probably invite Gerry Adams and a retired Argentine General, forget the cards and spend the night trying to pull the barmaid by telling her about his departmental Jaguar, not noticing it had been set on fire by local kids.
 
If the UK fails to pay its dues after agreeing to it then it won't get a transition period nor a trade deal with the EU. The EU will probably use its power within the WTO to make it hard for the UK to get a WTO deal as well.
 
May fexit up.
 
Can't believe some of these Labour idiots voted with the Tories. Especially Frank Field who always seems on his high moral horse. I thought Brexit was to bring back control yet these nincompoops are voting against Parliament's right to be sovereign.
 
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A trade war which the EU would comfortably win. There's little doubt that the EU will suffer if the UK falls out onto WTO rules without an agreement, but the point is that the UK will suffer a great deal more. I believe people in recent weeks have somewhat underestimated the incentive that exists to make leaving the institution as painful and unenviable as possible and the role that will play in the coming months.

On the divorce bill itself, it wouldn't surprise me if Davis' loose lips leads to an insistence that it's paid for in its entirety before anything is concluded, dashing the sweetener to the back-benchers that it may well be incremental payments over a number of years. Indeed I wouldn't be terribly shocked if the EU now successfully pin down the government to such a pledge before even initiating 'phase 2' talks.
Seems that the EU will make any payment deal binding before trade talks can begin. Davis said it's not necessary to be clever to do his job. He's a perfect fit then, isn't he ?
 
Can't believe some of these Labour idiots voted with the Tories. Especially Frank Field who always seems on his high moral horse. I thought Brexit was to bring back control yet these nincompoops are voting against Parliamnent's right to be sovereign.

Is this a troll account?
 
Can't believe some of these Labour idiots voted with the Tories. Especially Frank Field who always seems on his high moral horse. I thought Brexit was to bring back control yet these nincompoops are voting against Parliament's right to be sovereign.
Because they are well Brexit.
 
Don't know enough about Field but Hoey comes across as someone who'd be better suited to UKIP than Labour with her views.