Which has no actual implications at all.
German Elections 2017
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I meant that the SPD leading the opposition would have stopped the Afd.
1) You didn't phrase it that way.
2) Not necessarily.
They get to be the first to respond to the government in the Bundestag. They will be certain to demand ARD & ZDF give them the air time a opposition deserves in a democracy. They won't have any actual power, but it is far from ideal.
It's a matter of perspective. They're representing actual, living people that deserve to be heard as much as the rest.
They use populism to appeal to the unworthiest of human instincts. They use fear as a political tool to exploit the ignorance of the unfortunate. While I cannot keep them from entering the Bundestag (and wouldn't want the law to do so) it is well within my democratic right to voice my displeasure about them.
Go on but I don't think that approach leads to solutions. Those are actual people that voted for them because they want specific things. It's fair to not like what they want but the way to deal with that is not to close them all in a box marked AFD (bad) and put it away somewhere. Democracy is based on negotiation, is it not?
Solution for what exactly?
Yes they are actual people. Ignorant people with stupid ideas. Your solution might be to appease them and cave in (if you're not one of them), mine is to mock and belittle them. They may well demand the very respect that they refuse the masses that they rally against, but they won't get it from me.
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I'd rather not have them in parliament as well either but I was referring to the specific aspect of being 'opposition leader' which is basically an empty phrase.
Exactly, "opposition leader" means nothing in this context. It is only relevant when one of the big parties is in opposition as their leader will (often) naturally be the challenger of the chancellor in coming elections. The fact that they will be the first opposition party to answer the governing parties is largely meaningless. The amount of people actually watching these debates is miniscule. In TV summaries they will get their share of time but it won't be any bigger just because they are "opposition leaders". "Die Linke" was "leading" the opposition in the last legislative period and it did not matter.
SPD base today voted yes (just barely: 56,5% vs 43,5%) towards coalition talks, which basically means that there will be a great coalition again, they won't go back on that now, especially as their whole party leadership was in favor of having a coalition.
The fact that the vote was still so close shows what a rift goes through that party, can't wait how the likes of Nahles and Schulz are going to claim that they've had so much success at the coalition talks.
The fact that the vote was still so close shows what a rift goes through that party, can't wait how the likes of Nahles and Schulz are going to claim that they've had so much success at the coalition talks.
Schulz is a tosser for going back on his promise.
What they did on election night was irresposible and stupid. Absolutely the right decision to enter a grand coaliation again. There is no alternative.
There can be change. Who on earth wants more Merkel.
When centre left parties fail to change
That guy from the tweet is a portuguese neo liberal extremist but he looks right on this one.
Mild gains for the Greens and Die Linke there, which suggests that's where disillusioned voters are flocking to. May see both of them continuing to improve if the SPD don't come up with something that inspires voters.
INSA is heavily pro AfD, it was revealed long time ago that the founder is cooperating with the AfD through his other organizations and received payments from them.
Emnid has the SPD at 20 and AfD at 13. Forsa has them at 13 as well.
Anyhow, the SPD is dead. What killed them was their refusal to work with Die Linke a couple of years ago under Lafontaine/Gysi for no reason at all and buying into the conservative/media "Ex SED DEVILS" propaganda. Limited their own options to eternal Große Koalition with CDU/CSU (or were delusional enough to believe SPD + Grüne could reach a majority ever again). CDU/CSU won't make the same mistake. Like in Austria, the Christ Democrats won't have any issues whatsoever to go into a coalition with the AfD once Merkel is gone.
Emnid has the SPD at 20 and AfD at 13. Forsa has them at 13 as well.
Anyhow, the SPD is dead. What killed them was their refusal to work with Die Linke a couple of years ago under Lafontaine/Gysi for no reason at all and buying into the conservative/media "Ex SED DEVILS" propaganda. Limited their own options to eternal Große Koalition with CDU/CSU (or were delusional enough to believe SPD + Grüne could reach a majority ever again). CDU/CSU won't make the same mistake. Like in Austria, the Christ Democrats won't have any issues whatsoever to go into a coalition with the AfD once Merkel is gone.
Except for major disagreements with regard to foreign policy, Die Linke demanding the reversal of the "Hartz IV" reforms which most leading figures of the SPD were in favour of as well as the fact that Lafontaine and his gang of disenfranchised SPD members considered the SPD the main enemy, while in the SPD they never forgave Lafontaine for leaving the party and joining the far-left... Disappointed affection is never a good thing.
There were several good reasons - concerning policy, style and trust - which resulted in these parties not forming a coalition on federal level. Die Linke considers large parts of the SPD traitors of social democratic principles, while in the SPD they consider large parts of Die Linke unreasonable and dogmatic. It's hard to reconcile these differences, especially when they are emotionally charge between previous allies. And this has been an issue between the center-left and the far-left for ever in Germany.
This is politics. Compromises can always be made. CDU and AfD have major disagreements as well on the surface, hell, the AfD want to impeach Merkel openly. Within the next 10 years you will see, however, that if necessary and CDU/CSU can't get to power otherwise, they'll go into coalition with the AfD. AfD will tone done a bit, Merkel will be gone and suddenly Germany 2025 will be Austria 2017. Linke and SPD are from the same vein, doesn't matter the rhetorics. If SPD did a serious approach instead of buying into the demonisation from conservatives they wouldn't have gotten themselves in a situation where they can only be the junior partner of the CDU/CSU and take all the blame for the negatives that comes out of such a coalition.
Maybe. However, there is no guarantee that the SPD would have performed better supporting such a coalition. That coalition was never popular with centrist voters.
And policy matters. There was a fundamental conflict between both parties over the social and labour reforms. The SPD leadership especially in 2005 but to some extend also in 2013 was in favour of these reforms and directly involved in the governments that implemented the reforms. That's how the split on the left occured. On the other hand, large parts of Die Linke define themselves by the opposition to these reforms. There is not a lot of wiggle room to compromise when one side considers certain reforms their legacy while the other side defines its purpose by overthrowing these reforms. And, of course, personal issues matter, too. Obviously, there was a lot of bad blood between those that left the SPD because of the reforms and those that executed the reforms.
I think there were plenty of good reasons not to enter such a coalition, although it certainly reduced the SPD's chances to lead a government.
How much in terms of policy is fixed by this 'Koalitionsvertrag' for the coming govt. period?
Most of it. It's difficult to see how both sides could agree to other (significant) proposals during the 4 years, that are not a reaction to short-term developments.
As far as I can tell there are no big reform in it, but many gradual changes that are quite important. Still, it's a bit early to know what's in it.
What interesting times we live in.
Germany coalition deal: Social Democrats vote to join government
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-43276732
Germany coalition deal: Social Democrats vote to join government
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-43276732
Good riddance SPD, then.
federal elections in Bavaria:
conservatives and social democrats got both massacred. "Freie Wähler" is a centrist party, that focuses on regional/local politics. The most likely coalition is CSU+FreieWähler. A coalition between CSU and green party is unlikely but not impossible.
conservatives and social democrats got both massacred. "Freie Wähler" is a centrist party, that focuses on regional/local politics. The most likely coalition is CSU+FreieWähler. A coalition between CSU and green party is unlikely but not impossible.
I had hoped the AfD would score lower, would have loved for them to fail the 5% hurdle. The SPD's result is tragic, and it's mainly down to the government SPD-Union coalition. SPD is quite invisible within Bavaria, so they have nothing really going for them but all misgivings with german federal politics against them.
The erosion of the traditional mainstream parties continues, even the CSU is struggling recently. Going purely by the win/loss percentages, the AfD has gained roughly as much as the CSU has lost, while Grüne & Freie Wähler have gained roughly as much as the SPD has lost. It's probably a bit more complicated than that, but I'd like to see the numbers of voting shifts.
Stoiber has also complained that the influx of inner-German economic migrants to Bavaria has ruined the CSU's hegemony.
Stoiber has also complained that the influx of inner-German economic migrants to Bavaria has ruined the CSU's hegemony.
In the polls prior to the election the AFD scored higher than they did in the elections.
I know a lot people that were undecided prior to the election but that for sure wanted to vote but for sure not AFD - and then not CSU or SPD. Somehow like - do not give anything to the established parties but for sure take care that the AFD does not get strong.
@Synco
It might look like this. But the CSU for sure lost a lot of the voters because of the stunts of Söder and Seehofer in the recent months to anybody but the right wing...
Yep, here are first results on voting shifts, don't know how accurate:
https://www.tagesschau.de/inland/bayern-waehlerwanderung-101.html
Indeed a merry-go-round in all directions, as it seems. SPD has lost to all other voter blocs, AfD has won from all (very different amounts, though).
That's right, and certainly responsible for the lion's share of gains for the Greens.
https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entr...esults-since-1950_us_5bc38f47e4b040bb4e835fb3
lets just hope we don't get another Hitler.
lets just hope we don't get another Hitler.
Interesting is that they gained from all - but that they even gained more from people that did not vote or that voted protest (or NPD or Republikaner who weren't participating this time) last time...
Everything has gone according to the polls. Just the SPD has collapsed. Should have never accepted another coalition with the CSU.
On a second thought, the AfD was there for the first time, so it's obvious they can only have gained from everyone, silly me.
But it's interesting to see that the AfD's gains from Greens, FDP and even SPD are practically neglectable. So their voter base in Bavaria comes mainly from the conservative, right wing and non-voter pool, which is not surprising at all, but good to see there has been no massive center -> right shift. Rather a deliberate counter-right voting pattern.
Your "non-GroKo/non-AfD" explanation for the Green/liberal/center gains makes an awful lot of sense.