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Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?

  • Total voters
    194
  • Poll closed .
Officially what's the reasoning behind why we should all be confident that the Labour 'having cake and eating it' policy will succeed where the Tory policy of exactly the same, won't?

Is it: "Oh! Jeremy Corbyn!", by any chance?
 
Oscie said:
To be fair to Corbyn if he opposes Brexit he'll only have the overwhelming majority of his MPs, his voters, his party members and the largest unions in the country behind him.


What we should do is pretend that somehow it's a difficult decision on the basis that a small minority of voters who live largely in safe Labour constituencies in the north might object and attack anyone who challenges that view.
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More than a 'small' minority of Labour voters supported Brexit.
 
Roughly the same number of Labour voters backed Remain (65%) as Tory voters backed Leave (61%). Yet we're not in a position where the Tory party is backing remain for fear of alienating the minority of their vote. Odd that, isn't it?


More recent polling has shown 80% of Labour members want a second referendum.
 
Silva said:
It'll be more or less the Norway+ model that's made possible in the stage 1 and 2 agreements.
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So a soft Brexit. If the estimations of the people who support his current position are correct, he'll get a heavy amount of flak for that in that he'll be alienating Labour Brexiteers by not committing to an end for freedom of movement etc.
 
Oscie said:
Roughly the same number of Labour voters backed Remain (65%) as Tory voters backed Leave (61%). Yet we're not in a position where the Tory party is backing remain for fear of alienating the minority of their vote. Odd that, isn't it?


More recent polling has shown 80% of Labour members want a second referendum.
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Well no, but that's because the Leave side won. The Tories can therefore back what the majority of their membership supported because it's not hypocritical at all to do otherwise. I think Corbyn's position is increasingly silly and naive but we shouldn't pretend there's no difference.
 
Silva said:
It'll be more or less the Norway+ model that's made possible in the stage 1 and 2 agreements.
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Specifically what is it about the stage 1 and 2 agreements that you think make the Norway deal possible?

I've seen you cite this before but never explained why.
 
Cheesy said:
So a soft Brexit. If the estimations of the people who support his current position are correct, he'll get a heavy amount of flak for that in that he'll be alienating Labour Brexiteers by not committing to an end for freedom of movement etc.
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Yeah, but he'll have 5 years until the next election for voters to get over it.
 
Oscie said:
Specifically what is it about the stage 1 and 2 agreements that you think make the Norway deal possible?

I've seen you cite this before but never explained why.
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It commits to no hard border in Ireland and no regulatory diverge of NI to the rest of the country. Aka, no regulatory difference between the UK/Republic of Ireland (the EU).
 
Silva said:
It commits to no hard border in Ireland and no regulatory diverge of NI to the rest of the country. Aka, no regulatory difference between the UK/Republic of Ireland (the EU).
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It commits to no hard border on the proviso the UK govt come up with a workable and viable solution to avoiding it. Nothing to suggest anyone has that. This is what makes Corbyn's Brexit just as pie in the sky as May's. Both rely on the magical "somehow", whereby we "somehow" resolve the Northern Ireland issue and hey presto we'll have an agreement.
 
Silva said:
Yeah, but he'll have 5 years until the next election for voters to get over it.
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Unless party polling falls to the point where there's a vote of no confidence against him and his government gets ousted. Something that'll be even more likely if he doesn't have a majority and has to work alongside the Lib Dems or SNP.

Voter fear over immigration has been fostered by the DM and the like for decades, and isn't going to disappear after Brexit. If Corbyn's intention is to essentially lie to people at the moment and placate and promise to address those fears over immigration, before doing nothing at all when he's actually elected, then he'll probably piss of a lot of people.
 
Oscie said:
It commits to no hard border on the proviso the UK govt come up with a workable and viable solution to it. Nothing to suggest anyone has that. This is what makes Corbyn's Brexit just as pie in the sky as May's. Both rely on the magical "somehow", whereby we "somehow" resolve the Northern Ireland issue and hey presto we'll have an agreement.
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There's no such provisions in the agreement, that is a UK cabinet issue and will be rejected by the EU when they propose maxfac. At which point the UK will have to choose between Norway+ and no deal. And the UK can't choose no deal.
 
Cheesy said:
Unless party polling falls to the point where there's a vote of no confidence against him and his government gets ousted. Something that'll be even more likely if he doesn't have a majority and has to work alongside the Lib Dems or SNP.

Voter fear over immigration has been fostered by the DM and the like for decades, and isn't going to disappear after Brexit. If Corbyn's intention is to essentially lie to people at the moment and placate and promise to address those fears over immigration, before doing nothing at all when he's actually elected, then he'll probably piss of a lot of people.
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That'll be a good thing for Labour. They'll soak up SNP and LD votes like the last coalition did.
 
Silva said:
That'll be a good thing for Labour. They'll soak up SNP and LD votes like the last coalition did.
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That's no guarantee and would depend on a myriad of factors pertaining to the performance of his government. The last time out the Tories gained from a coalition, but the Lib Dems were seen as having betrayed their voters and Cameron's government weren't particularly disliked considering they were the incumbent one. I'm talking here if a Corbyn government starts to poll in shockingly low figures for a current government because pro-Brexit Labour voters feel betrayed and lied to because their version of Brexit was ignored by someone who'd said he would implement it.
 
Silva said:
There's no such provisions in the agreement, that is a UK cabinet issue and will be rejected by the EU when they propose maxfac. At which point the UK will have to choose between Norway+ and no deal. And the UK can't choose no deal.
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But it doesn't commit to no hard border in Ireland at all. Phase 1 agreement simply says:
"The United Kingdom also recalls its commitment to the avoidance of a hard border, including any physical infrastructure or related checks and controls."
"The United Kingdom remains committed to protecting North-South cooperation and to its guarantee of avoiding a hard border."

Everyone wants to avoid a hard border, but there is not an agreement on how to do so. You appear to be under the impression a lack of agreement on what can solve the border issue will be the default position of no hard border, which doesn't make sense. If no agreement on the Irish border will result in their not being a hard border then what exactly is the point of discussions on the subject if the breakdown of talks would instantly resolve it?
 
Oscie said:
But it doesn't commit to no hard border in Ireland at all. Phase 1 agreement simply says:
"The United Kingdom also recalls its commitment to the avoidance of a hard border, including any physical infrastructure or related checks and controls."
"The United Kingdom remains committed to protecting North-South cooperation and to its guarantee of avoiding a hard border."

Everyone wants to avoid a hard border, but there is not an agreement on how to do so. You appear to be under the impression a lack of agreement on what can solve the border issue will be the default position of no hard border, which doesn't make sense. If no agreement on the Irish border will result in their not being a hard border then what exactly is the point of discussions on the subject if the breakdown of talks would instantly resolve it?
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That's the stage 2 wording, recall meaning it committed to those things in stage 1.
 
Silva said:
By certain demographics. Others went to the Tories, the same will happen in another coalition, but with different demographics.
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Not a guarantee by any means.

And a coalition was one possibility I was talking about. It's hypothetical Labour could end up in a majority. And while it may be for their short-term gain currently, I'm not sure how it'll factor in over the long-term. If Corbyn and Labour want to build a lasting socialist movement, then being seen as betraying a significant portion of their voters the moment they step into office by staying in the CU isn't going to bode well for them.
 
Silva said:
That's the stage 2 wording, recall meaning it committed to those things in stage 1.
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But this still doesn't make sense. All phase one says on the border issue is, effectively, 'be nice if..'.

Besides it still doesn't explain why you think no deal on everything, including the Irish border issue, will result in the default position of there being no hard border in Ireland. This is illogical.
 
Oscie said:
But this still doesn't make sense. All phase one says on the border issue is, effectively, 'be nice if..'.

Besides it still doesn't explain why you think no deal on everything, including the Irish border issue, will result in the default position of there being no hard border in Ireland. This is illogical.
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49. The United Kingdom remains committed to protecting North-South cooperation and to its guarantee of avoiding a hard border. Any future arrangements must be compatible with these overarching requirements. The United Kingdom's intention is to achieve these objectives through the overall EU-UK relationship. Should this not be possible, the United Kingdom will propose specific solutions to address the unique circumstances of the island of Ireland. In the absence of agreed solutions, the United Kingdom will maintain full alignment with those rules of the Internal Market and the Customs Union which, now or in the future, support North-South cooperation, the allisland economy and the protection of the 1998 Agreement.

50. In the absence of agreed solutions, as set out in the previous paragraph, the United Kingdom will ensure that no new regulatory barriers develop between Northern Ireland and the rest of the United Kingdom, unless, consistent with the 1998 Agreement, the Northern Ireland Executive and Assembly agree that distinct arrangements are appropriate for Northern Ireland. In all circumstances, the United Kingdom will continue to ensure the same unfettered access for Northern Ireland's businesses to the whole of the United Kingdom internal market.

guarantee and be nice if aren't the same
 
So from 4 different posters over the past week or so ,who gave up the ghost I'll await the answers to:

1. How do you have a Norway style deal without being in the CU/SM .
2. What are the 5 benefits of having a Norway style deal
3. What are the benefits of leaving the EU other than not imposing tariffs on Japanese cars, which is already agreed but won't be when the UK leave.
4. Who would Stanley have voted for in the 2015 GE.

Weird.
 
GloryHunter07 said:
Is freedom of labour the same as freedom of movement btw? What about services?
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Freedom of movement likely wouldn't end no matter the Brexit, we're not going to shoot ourselves in the foot twice by making people get tourist visas, freedom of labour means EU nationals have the right to work here without a workers visa but has little to do with travel arrangements as we're not in Schengen. Services wouldn't be required to uphold the Good Friday agreement, which is the reason we have to go with Norway+ in the first place (you don't check services at borders), so idk what happens there, there's no indication which way that goes.
 
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Paul the Wolf said:
It's in the Single Market and the 4 freedoms apply . You mean Jeremy's hoping to negotiate his own deals.
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Yes, the freedoms will apply. That's why the far right of the conservative party is throwing a fit and wants a no deal exit.

Paul the Wolf said:
By the way the NI border extract you quoted only applies to NI.
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read it again
 
Silva said:
Yes, the freedoms will apply. That's why the far right of the conservative party is throwing a fit and wants a no deal exit.
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But Corbyn said he would leave the Single Market. Doesn't add up.
And if it's not in the custom's union it has to have a border with custom's checks.

See where we're going with this.

read it again
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Meant to say the EU only accept that NI is covered by the backstop (EU backstop) - the EU are not accepting the UK version.
 
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