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Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?

  • Total voters
    194
  • Poll closed .
africanspur said:
I have actually met a few people who voted remain who now say they would vote leave because they say they feel disgusted by how the EU has conducted these negotiations.

I don't agree but it isn't a niche opinion seemingly.
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Would like to speak to some of them. Sounds more daft than the people arguing for leave in the first place. May has presented a plan that even her party doesn't support.
 
Simbo said:
Its all just immigration and "I don't want to be dictated to" when I speak to brexit voters.

My dad is scared of some sort of German takeover of Europe as if he thinks Merkel is finishing what Hitler started. Then in the next breath he's sticking up for Trump, y'know that actual wannabe Nazi dictator.

I just don't understand them at all, there's no getting through to um. We'll be blummin begging for immigrants the way things are going.
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I have a friend who works in HR for a meat processing company. They're currently hiring directly from Romania and Slovakia in order to get factory workers. They're even doing the training in their languages.
 
Paul the Wolf said:
Did they say what the EU has supposedly done to disgust them?
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I could be wrong but the EU showed a fair amount of detachment and is already treating the UK like a third country, like an outsider. And before the referendum, it seemed that a lot of people from all sides thought that the context would be warmer, closer to a mediation than an actual divorce.
 
JPRouve said:
I could be wrong but the EU showed a fair amount of detachment and is already treating the UK like a third country, like an outsider. And before the referendum, it seemed that a lot of people from all sides thought that the context would be warmer, closer to a mediation than an actual divorce.
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God knows why, I’m British and I think the EU should be kicking the UK governments ass even harder right now. It takes a special level of delusion to think you can cause major economic harm to other countries and expect them to be warm towards you.
 
JPRouve said:
I could be wrong but the EU showed a fair amount of detachment and is already treating the UK like a third country, like an outsider. And before the referendum, it seemed that a lot of people from all sides thought that the context would be warmer, closer to a mediation than an actual divorce.
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I think the EU position has always been clear and that they were never going to allow the UK to pick and choose which bits they like.
They said to the UK, tell us what you want and our relationship will be adjusted accordingly

The EU probably couldn't believe that the UK actually did expect to be able to pick and choose and in fact they still do. Keep all the best bits but not have the bits that are less likeable.

Michel Barnier has the patience of a saint, trying to negotiate with a group of 5 year olds who haven't stop squabbling with themselves for over 2 years.
It's not going to stop either, there will never be a clear UK position, the squabbling will still be going on many years after the UK has left.
 
JPRouve said:
I could be wrong but the EU showed a fair amount of detachment and is already treating the UK like a third country, like an outsider. And before the referendum, it seemed that a lot of people from all sides thought that the context would be warmer, closer to a mediation than an actual divorce.
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So:

I don't like you and I am leaving you...but treat me warmer?

Right...
 
africanspur said:
I have actually met a few people who voted remain who now say they would vote leave because they say they feel disgusted by how the EU has conducted these negotiations.

I don't agree but it isn't a niche opinion seemingly.
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Sensitive flowers...I dread to think how they will feel once we start negotiations with the US and China.
 
Steven Seagull said:
Its the lunatics and the clueless who thought the EU would be bending their rules for us. The rigidity of the EU is strangely a reason people give both for leaving and remaining. It’s an unusual situation
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The rules can be changed if there is a clear benefit to the remaining the countries and that's the point that seems to be missed. The UK aren't big enough to create a situation where a clear benefit will appear, if we were talking about a frexit no one in the UK would be defending any sort of rule changing because there is no clear benefit.
 
Steven Seagull said:
Its the lunatics and the clueless who thought the EU would be bending their rules for us. The rigidity of the EU is strangely a reason people give both for leaving and remaining. It’s an unusual situation
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EU rules are enshrined into law (Maastricht Treaty). The EU is a legal construct and the four freedoms are indivisible. There is no negotiation. It's simple, you take this if you want that.
It's a fundamental point that's lost on us here in the UK. The EU is not a gentleman's agreement where bits and pieces can be negotiated.
 
Was listening to the radio on my way to work yesterday. It's outstanding that an MP doesn't know that zero tariff isn't the same as no tariff. Where do we find these people?
 
Adisa said:
EU rules are enshrined into law (Maastricht Treaty). The EU is a legal construct and the four freedoms are indivisible. There is no negotiation. It's simple, you take this if you want that.
It's a fundamental point that's lost on us here in the UK. The EU is not a gentleman's agreement where bits and pieces can be negotiated.
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I see the point that you are making but the EU legal system is negotiable, it's just not negoatiable by and for a third country, only the members can do it and it needs to be in their exclusive interest. The process also takes time.
 
Adisa said:
EU rules are enshrined into law (Maastricht Treaty). The EU is a legal construct and the four freedoms are indivisible. There is no negotiation. It's simple, you take this if you want that.
It's a fundamental point that's lost on us here in the UK. The EU is not a gentleman's agreement where bits and pieces can be negotiated.
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I agree. I think it’s a huge reason for the upswell in anti EU sentiment. Particularly after Lisbon which we didn’t even get a vote on
 
JPRouve said:
The rules can be changed if there is a clear benefit to the remaining the countries and that's the point that seems to be missed. The UK aren't big enough to create a situation where a clear benefit will appear, if we were talking about a frexit no one in the UK would be defending any sort of rule changing because there is no clear benefit.
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True... I do wonder though if faced with a frexit (or Germany) how willing the EU might be to negotiate a little more... I think the fact we have the rebates, never adopted the euro and in many ways blamed the EU for many things that really were not the fault of the EU actually makes us less off a loss than we like to think
 
sun_tzu said:
True... I do wonder though if faced with a frexit (or Germany) how willing the EU might be to negotiate a little more... I think the fact we have the rebates, never adopted the euro and in many ways blamed the EU for many things that really were not the fault of the EU actually makes us less off a loss than we like to take think
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I don't think that the EU as a whole would be more willing, though neighboring countries probably would be more willing to find a common ground because France has a lot more daily interactions with them. The issue would be for countries like the UK or Hungary these countries have a different relationship with France and have no reason to change the rules.

An other thing that I find interesting in terms of value France are to the UK a lesser trade partner than Netherlands, Germany import two times more from France than from the UK. So while currently the UK have the support of Netherlands, France probably wouldn't have it but Germany or Italy would have a bigger interest to deal with France.
 
JPRouve said:
I don't think that the EU as a whole would be more willing, though neighboring countries probably would be more willing to find a common ground because France has a lot more daily interactions with them. The issue would be for countries like the UK or Hungary these countries have a different relationship with France and have no reason to change the rules.

An other thing that I find interesting in terms of value France are to the UK a lesser trade partner than Netherlands, Germany import two times more from France than from the UK. So while currently the UK have the support of Netherlands, France probably wouldn't have it but Germany or Italy would have a bigger interest to deal with France.
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Not trying to be *that* guy but you should use exports to make that point.

sun_tzu said:
True... I do wonder though if faced with a frexit (or Germany) how willing the EU might be to negotiate a little more... I think the fact we have the rebates, never adopted the euro and in many ways blamed the EU for many things that really were not the fault of the EU actually makes us less off a loss than we like to think
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Right now the objectives would have to be more or less the same - preserve the integrity of the European Union. However in the negotiation preceding the referendum there'd have been far more effort made by Germany and therefore the EU at large to give them a good deal to assuage their population; like you say France are a double act with Germany for pushing the EU's long-term agenda, Germany would be far more loathe to lose them. United Kingdom are actually something of a brick in the machine for those two.

I wonder about the societal point in all this; if you've lived abroad then you'll know the rest of Europe tend to have far less of an isolationist island mentality than us and view each other as old friends more than Europe's grumpy old uncle United Kingdom. Beneath all the political and economic considerations there'd be a natural inclination to be kind to France.
 
Adisa said:
Was listening to the radio on my way to work yesterday. It's outstanding that an MP doesn't know that zero tariff isn't the same as no tariff. Where do we find these people?
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luckily I am not an MP and I can get away with my ignorance. But which is the difference?
 
endless_wheelies said:
Not trying to be *that* guy but you should use exports to make that point.
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No, I should not because the point is about the interconnection, German exports to France or the UK are equivalent but the imports are not, it has a real meaning for companies, they don't import just for a laugh. It's actually a mistake to only look a exports, it ignores the fact that the products that you imports are imported either because they are cheaper or because you don't produce enough for your national market.
 
JPRouve said:
No, I should not because the point is about the interconnection, German exports to France or the UK are equivalent but the imports are not, it has a real meaning for companies, they don't import just for a laugh. It's actually a mistake to only look a exports, it ignores the fact that the products that you imports are imported either because they are cheaper or because you don't produce enough for your national market.
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Well in that case France would be in a far weaker negotiating position than the United Kingdom due to their relative dependance on Germany. Import tariffs and restrictions are entirely under our own control.
 
endless_wheelies said:
Well in that case France would be in a far weaker negotiating position than the United Kingdom due to their relative dependance on Germany. Import tariffs and restrictions are entirely under our own control.
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And that's not the point that I made or even tried to make. The first paragraph clearly stipulates that I do not think that the EU would be more willing to compromise for France. And in the second paragraph, I mentioned a different interdependence between countries and that for example France and Germany exchanges more which means that they have a bigger interest to agree.
 
Adisa said:
EU rules are enshrined into law (Maastricht Treaty). The EU is a legal construct and the four freedoms are indivisible. There is no negotiation. It's simple, you take this if you want that.
It's a fundamental point that's lost on us here in the UK. The EU is not a gentleman's agreement where bits and pieces can be negotiate.
Click to expand...

Having read this again many hours later, it’s astonishing to me that people can not see any kind of reasoning for leaving at all. I mean look at that post, the EU is bonkers. And yet you somehow paint this none negotiable stance as a positive? You are all fecking nuts. This thread is as bad as a WhatsApp group between redwood mogg and farage
 
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JPRouve said:
And that's not the point that I made or even tried to make. The first paragraph clearly stipulates that I do not think that the EU would be more willing to compromise for France. And in the second paragraph, I mentioned a different interdependence between countries and that for example France and Germany exchanges more which means that they have a bigger interest to agree.
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That's not interdependence then, that's France's dependence on Germany. If Germany whacked up tariffs on French goods then French companies would go out of business while German companies would simply source non-French suppliers.
 
Steven Seagull said:
Having read this again many hours later, it’s astonishing to me that people can not see any kind of reasoning for leaving at all. I mean look at that post, the EU is bonkers. And yet you somehow paint this none negotiable stance as a positive?
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Obviously there's reasons. They just pale in the face of the negative consequences.
 
Steven Seagull said:
Having read this again many hours later, it’s astonishing to me that people can not see any kind of reasoning for leaving at all. I mean look at that post, the EU is bonkers. And yet you somehow paint this none negotiable stance as a positive? You are all fecking nuts. This thread is as bad as a WhatsApp group between redwood mogg and farage
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They (and we) built a vast continental system based around a set of rules. Everyone signed up to those rules which were carefully designed to create balance and prosperity. So now the EU is supposed to trash those rules and risk the balance collapsing just because the UK are throwing their toys out the pram?
 
Kentonio said:
They (and we) built a vast continental system based around a set of rules. Everyone signed up to those rules which were carefully designed to create balance and prosperity. So now the EU is supposed to trash those rules and risk the balance collapsing just because the UK are throwing their toys out the pram?
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Who is experiencing all this prosperity? I thought the eu would be largely unaffected by Brexit.
 
endless_wheelies said:
That's not interdependence then, that's France's dependence on Germany. If Germany whacked up tariffs on French goods then French companies would go out of business while German companies would simply source non-French suppliers.
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There is nothing simple in sourcing different suppliers, you assume that they are all equal which is wrong or that viable alternatives exists which is also wrong. And then I said bigger interdependence not an absolute interdependence, I also said that I don't think that it would put France in a better situation than the UK, that the remaining countries wouldn't bend for France.
You seem to agree but for some reason try to disagree with things that I haven't stated.
 
Steven Seagull said:
Having read this again many hours later, it’s astonishing to me that people can not see any kind of reasoning for leaving at all. I mean look at that post, the EU is bonkers. And yet you somehow paint this none negotiable stance as a positive? You are all fecking nuts. This thread is as bad as a WhatsApp group between redwood mogg and farage
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The EU was set up with a rule base to which the UK made a large contribution in designing those rules.
If countries want to subsequently change those rules then it has to be decided from within amongst the member states.

What the UK have done is decided to leave because they no longer want to abide by those rules. Fair enough, go, but don't expect to be able to continue to reap the benefits of being a member. That is what is infuriating a lot of people.

The UK have made a decision but they don't want to accept the consequences of that decision.

Remainers think it is the most stupid decision the country has made since god knows when, but it cannot be proved until after the UK have actually left.
Then we can see whether it was a sensible decision or not.

People are entitled to their opinion whether one agrees with them or not. How do you criticise a thread, just because it doesn't agree with your opinion.
 
Stanley Road said:
Who is experiencing all this prosperity? I thought the eu would be largely unaffected by Brexit.
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Europe is far more prosperous now than it was before the EU. Britain in particular has gone from being the sick man of Europe to being the world’s 5th largest economy. Of course now we’re going to throw that away, but hey it was good while it lasted.

As for the rest of the EU, of course they won’t be largely unaffected. The damage they take will just be much smaller than the damage the U.K. suffer because it’ll be spread between many countries, and they’ll still have the benefits of EU membership while we’ll be out on our arses.
 
Steven Seagull said:
Having read this again many hours later, it’s astonishing to me that people can not see any kind of reasoning for leaving at all. I mean look at that post, the EU is bonkers. And yet you somehow paint this none negotiable stance as a positive? You are all fecking nuts. This thread is as bad as a WhatsApp group between redwood mogg and farage
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I really don't understand why some find it difficult to reason. Imagine this scenario.
You and your friends set up a club based on rules. One of your friends quits the club and then asks you to change your rules so it suits him.
What do you do?
 
4bars said:
luckily I am not an MP and I can get away with my ignorance. But which is the difference?
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Zero tariffs goods still have to be checked and cleared. For example, Japanese goods still coming into Europe still deed to be decleared, checked and cleared at the point of entry, even though the tariff is zero. That's different from no tariff, like what we have in a customs Union.
 
Adisa said:
I really don't understand why some find it difficult to reason. Imagine this scenario.
You and your friends set up a club based on rules. One of your friends quits the club and then asks you to change your rules so it suits him.
What do you do?
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Let him leave and ask the other members to make up the loss in fees
 
Stanley Road said:
Change in terms and conditions for the other members is ok but not rule change?
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Only about 6% of the EU Budget goes towards actually running the EU so the cost shared by the remaining members is minimal.
The budget is decided every 7 years. One of its members has signed up to the budget but is leaving before the end of the budget period and thus is liable to pay its dues.

Then the new budget period will be decided by the remaining members and they will decide between them what the money will be spent on.

This is another red herring put around by the Leave campaign equal to the ridiculous "they need us more than we need them".

The current budget is below
https://europa.eu/european-union/topics/budget_en

If only the Leavers could have found out for themselves instead of believing politicians who lie or the dishonest British media.
 
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Adisa said:
I really don't understand why some find it difficult to reason. Imagine this scenario.
You and your friends set up a club based on rules. One of your friends quits the club and then asks you to change your rules so it suits him.
What do you do?
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Get all his money and his clothes, beat him up and throw him on the street, naked. Yeah...
 
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