I hate to say it, but you might be right Stan
Brexited | the worst threads live the longest
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In the latest episode of the United Hour Podcast, Nik (@Rood) is joined by CEO Duncan Drasdo and Financial Director Andy Green from the Manchester United Supporters Trust for a special episode on all things behind the scenes at Old Trafford including a brief history of MUST and their aims today, views on INEOS and Sir Jim Ratcliffe so far, and the Old Trafford regeneration.
Then dont out at all do you? Isnt that the whole point of it? You cant just chop and choose option as you please.
I found this down a YT rabbit hole. We don't seem to talk about the CAP and butter/grain mountains and wine lakes anymore. Kenneth Williams as a pro-euro voice is funny, and an excellent little Man Utd gem from the conservative MP.
Another good one between two titans compared to the bellends we have currently.
In the short term there southern Ireland will get fecked by a no deal. There are even predictions that our GDP will be hit harder than the UK's. Imagine for a country of 4.8m people you no longer have free trade and movement with your 65m people neighbour who 40% of your products go to. it's a disaster. And there's the fact that so much of what's imported here comes through UK ports because we don't have the infrastructure in place here to do it ourselves. We are a much smaller island than you that is far less equipped than you to handle such a huge loss.
I agree the long term benefits of the UK leaving the EU are probably good for us but short term it's going to be a disaster. Barclays moving 250 jobs here won't make up for our agriculture losing by far it's largest import and export partner. Besides, Dublin is already stretched and that's where all the jobs go. Dublin isn't the problem, Dublin already has oodles of high paying financial and tech jobs, it's rural Ireland that's the issue.
I doubt the long term benefits for you are much better.
If the UK drops it's tax rates, Irelands position as an English speaking tax haven will be under threat.
If the UK signs free trade deals with the old commonwealth countries and the USA, we could see the amount bought through Ireland reduced (especially agriculture).
There are opportunities out there for the EU's only majority English speaking country, and as a gateway between the UK and EU... but whether those outweigh the tangible drawbacks Brexit produces...I'm not sure.
I disagree with your long term points completely.
Regardless of the UK dropping your taxes, we'd still be in the EU and you wouldn't. Companies come here because we are the lowest corp-taxed English speaking nation in the EU.
And long term I'm not really worried about exports to the UK. We have been steadily decreasing the amount of trade to the UK for years and increasing to the EU and other countries with trade agreements with the EU. We could easily continue to do that if we need to. That's a huge market. We just don't have the infrastructure for it right now which is the problem.
Short term Brexit would be a disaster for ireland but long-term it'd probably benefit us, eventually. It'll never benefit the UK.
Soft brexit v hard brexit sounds like some kind of dietary issue
The UK needs to learn that trade negotiations is mostly done between different countries (or country and bloc) and less between their own political party.
I'm not saying you're wrong, but what will affect imports/exports to the UK? The UK wants the lowest possible tariffs. People will still move freely. If you're saying Britain can buy Ireland's products and services that much cheaper elsewhere you're sort of saying Brexit might not be that bad an idea from Britain's point of view.
If the UK is outside of the EU at the start then tariffs and customs checks are an inevitably and therefore that pushes up the cost of goods both to and from the UK for us. Things will instantly get a lot more expensive for us. What you're suggesting re. Tariffs and such is assuming the UK strike a deal before they crash out.
Oh and clearly that's not what I'm saying and I've no idea how you'd divulge that? With the EU the UK already have the best value they'll get for importing and exporting goods. If there's no EU then they'll have to pay more to go elsewhere (and to the EU) so obviously it's not a good thing.
I think also factor in that in such a scenario there may be some increased friction over boarder issues and although I hope not a return to attacks can not be completely discounted (hopefully a sensible solution can be found) but if there was bombings or similar then that may put off quite a few companies in terms of relocation
There don't have to be tariffs whether there's a deal or not, although customs checks I agree. Any other country's goods and services would be subject to the same though, so I don't see why Ireland would be any less competitive than it is now. I thought you're saying other countries can produce and deliver much cheaper than Ireland can, which would be a good thing from Britain's point of view, would it not? Our exports would plummet of course, so you've not converted me to Brexit, but you've at least pointed out a benefit.
Are you on a WUM or something here? You do realize that goods becoming more expensive to import from Ireland (and the EU) to the UK is a bad thing for the UK, right? You also realize that exporting goods from the UK to Ireland (and the EU) becoming more expensive is a bad thing for the UK, right?
Ireland would obviously be less competitive, if the pound plummets (it will) then the money we make from importing to you would suffer. likewise with custom checks it costs more to give you those goods, so, we lose again. We can't, in the short term, move all those goods to other countries instead, ergo we'll take a financial hit from them. And, just to be clear, you lose in this situation too. It's not good for the UK either. if you have to go try getting goods from outside of the EU instead then it'll be more expensive, without question.
No idea what you're saying. I voted remain.
You realise Ireland is in the top 5 GDP per capita in the world? And top 6 or 7 for GNP... Our economic output per person is nearly twice the UKs. If we get hit harder than UK then there is something way beyond Brexit causing problems for our economy.
I've already agreed about the UK's exports so please don't mention that again, I also agree extra costs would result in some reduction in Ireland's exports, but if you're producing stuff Britain needs or wants then there would only be the massive reduction you described earlier if Britain was obtaining the same elsewhere, instead of from Ireland. So if you believe Britain will find cheaper alternatives then you are pointing out a benefit, like it or not. Personally I doubt Ireland's exports to the UK will drop much at all, which is why I questioned your original assertion. I'm quite willing to be persuaded differently though, by a reasoned argument.
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/pol...-hit-ireland-worse-than-uk-1.3403601?mode=amp
IMF warns Ireland will feel Brexit effects the most
https://www.rte.ie/amp/979852/
Even in this scenario, the speed at which the UK receives the goods will drop. Customs checks if it comes from Ireland, increased distances, lead time and reliability risks related to that if from further afield
So it's predicting Ireland's growth will slow to 1.5% after 2019. That's not as good as you'd hope for but it's not cataclysmic either.
I know mate, just because I pointed out one slight benefit, alleged by someone else, doesn't mean I'm a Brexiter.
The mother of all austerity. Hammond would wank hinself to death. He's already said we would require another decade of austerity.
My thoughts too. Or we try and borrow our way out of it, just making things even worse for the future. Disaster either way.
Our GDP is completely distorted by the multinationals that come here and sell their goods through Ireland. it rose 25% in 2015 because of Apple!
We are only 25th in the world in median household income, behind the UK, and 11th in average wage.
I wouldn’t describe putting more money into the NHS as an investment. You won’t get any decent return on it. The more money you give it, the more money passes right back out to consultants. It’s not equippred to deal with anything but the bare minimum it needs to operate.
I cant help but think that Mays speech demanding respect from the EU is actually aimed far more at the upcoming conservative conference
Surely the brexiteers have realised if they can topple her at conference that the subsequent election process for a new leader take them past the deadline of November to get a deal ratified and thus 100% ensure a hard brexit
i think her speech is designed solely for the purpose of getting enough wavering MP's to back her
( I guess the real crux of the issue is would Mogg / Johnson rather do that for ideological reasons - and actually have to implement it and be accountable... or would they rather yah boo from the sidelines and let it all fall apart before mounting a challenge next year - personally I expect the latter )
Surely the brexiteers have realised if they can topple her at conference that the subsequent election process for a new leader take them past the deadline of November to get a deal ratified and thus 100% ensure a hard brexit
i think her speech is designed solely for the purpose of getting enough wavering MP's to back her
( I guess the real crux of the issue is would Mogg / Johnson rather do that for ideological reasons - and actually have to implement it and be accountable... or would they rather yah boo from the sidelines and let it all fall apart before mounting a challenge next year - personally I expect the latter )
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The classified document says a potential worst case is a 7% drop in GDP for Ireland
If I've read it right that's the cumulative effect by 2030, and also 7% less than it would otherwise have been rather than a 7% drop. Again, not what you want but not cataclysmic either. I may have read it wrong though, I'm rushing off to do a fantasy football transfer. Priorities, eh.
Where did I say that Ireland wouldn't still export goods to the UK though? I never said it would drop, not short term, certainly long-term we would look to move to the rest of the EU instead. I said it would be much more expensive for us (and for you) to do so, in the short term, at least. The UK won't be able to find cheaper from elsewhere. That's highly wishful thinking.
I'm not sure how you're getting this "the UK will therefore get goods cheaper from elsewhere which is a benefit" thing from as I never even suggested that could happen.
Ah my apologies then, we're at cross purposes. In the post I first replied to you talked of being fecked, and of 40% of your products going to the UK, which led me to believe you expected a substantial drop in exports, but if you don't then fair enough. The rest would have followed from that, if you had meant what I assumed you meant.
Ah my apologies then, we're at cross purposes. In the post I first replied to you talked of being fecked, and of 40% of your products going to the UK, which led me to believe you expected a substantial drop in exports, but if you don't then fair enough. The rest would have followed from that, if you had meant what I assumed you meant.
fair enough.Obviously everything up to a hard Brexit is pure guesswork, maybe there will be some benefits as it has simply never happened before and can't be judged, but ultimately I do think both of our economies are going to take a massive hit, and maybe even us more so because we are still so reliant on the UK as our 'big brother' stop gap to the rest of the world. At least the UK does have this sort of infrastructure (ports, cargo points etc) in place to somewhat deal.
Mind you, I still think it's our own fault in a way. We should've used all that money we raked in over the celtic tiger years to sort all this out and become more self sufficient instead of wasting it on our inflated welfare and health systems, but that's another discussion.
Even looking at broader metrics, something like 15m people travel between Ireland and the UK every year, imagine what happens when passport checks are suddenly needed? Absolute chaos, I'd wager.
That's why I added the GNP figure mate, because there's always someone that tries to argue GDP.
I disagree with your disagreement.
Aren't the top 50 companies in Ireland by turnover either British or American?
Why are they choosing Ireland? Because it's a high tech, low tax, English speaking country, with access to the EU and UK markets.
In a hard brexit, with the UK trying to become a tax haven, the UK could compete with Ireland for American companies looking for an English during tax haven. In a hard brexit, Ireland could lose access to UK markets meeting it less valuable there.
The one big benefit is as the only majority English speaking country in the EU, and that's a big benefit. but I think the UK competing and losing access to the UK will outweigh the benefits
Our GNP is also completely distorted.
GNI is a far better metric than either GDP or GNI and even then, the IMF had to introduce a brand new metric (GNI*) to make sense of ours because it was so inflated beyond what it really is.
Only 1.5% growth, how catastrophic... better get ready for the rations lads.
Lol, ok
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GNI_(nominal,_Atlas_method)_per_capita
7th in the world...
I disagree with your disagreement
The bolded part, what we lose there is the UK, we keep the EU. 460m vs 65m people, vs moving to the Uk and getting... 65m people.
I agree in the short-term losing access to UK markets will be a major blow to us but a lot of those markets are already moving across to Europe anyway. Plus most of our multinationals are US multinationals, not UK, and they want EU access.
I hope you are right.I disagree with your disagreement
The bolded part, what we lose there is the UK, we keep the EU. 460m vs 65m people, vs moving to the Uk and getting... 65m people.
I agree in the short-term losing access to UK markets will be a major blow to us but a lot of those markets are already moving across to Europe anyway.
#stahpbrexit