Brexited | the worst threads live the longest

Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?

  • Total voters
    194
  • Poll closed .
Paul the Wolf said:
Yes totally agree.
When it was defeated both Remainers and Brexiters celebrated. Not a good sign.
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as the clock runs down leavers think it makes no deal more likely
remainers think it makes remain (or at least a 2nd ref) more likely
both are probably correct as I think most people originally thought a negotiated withdrawal was always the most likley outcome but again as the clock ticks down that seems ever less likely with both leave and remain seemingly fancyinng their chances of securing their own particular brand of brexit / not brexit
 
sun_tzu said:
as the clock runs down leavers think it makes no deal more likely
remainers think it makes remain (or at least a 2nd ref) more likely
both are probably correct as I think most people originally thought a negotiated withdrawal was always the most likley outcome but again as the clock ticks down that seems ever less likely with both leave and remain seemingly fancyinng their chances of securing their own particular brand of brexit / not brexit
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Yes but one side will be severely disappointed and may regret that celebration.
 
Paul the Wolf said:
Yes but one side will be severely disappointed and may regret that celebration.
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inevitably when it comes to a binary option thats split pretty close down the middle its going to be divisive.
A GE in this climate or a second ref could genuinley fracture UK politics forever - which actually in the long run might not be the worst thing (or equally could be terrible - as I say binary options)
 
sun_tzu said:
as the clock runs down leavers think it makes no deal more likely
remainers think it makes remain (or at least a 2nd ref) more likely
both are probably correct as I think most people originally thought a negotiated withdrawal was always the most likley outcome but again as the clock ticks down that seems ever less likely with both leave and remain seemingly fancyinng their chances of securing their own particular brand of brexit / not brexit
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I don't think the leavers actually think that they're just hoping it forces Mays deal in their direction.

The only route towards no deal in March is if the EU rejects an extension and that isn't going to happen. They'll give us any sensible extension we want and parlaiment will soon force the request.
 
Smores said:
I don't think the leavers actually think that they're just hoping it forces Mays deal in their direction.

The only route towards no deal in March is if the EU rejects an extension and that isn't going to happen. They'll give us any sensible extension we want and parlaiment will soon force the request.
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You really think they're going to wait another 10 years whilst the UK makes its mind up.
 
Smores said:
I don't think the leavers actually think that they're just hoping it forces Mays deal in their direction.

The only route towards no deal in March is if the EU rejects an extension and that isn't going to happen. They'll give us any sensible extension we want and parlaiment will soon force the request.
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Possibly - they might switch to supporting to supporting Mays deal - just to make sure we leave then seek to oust may and get Mogg / johnson to wave their cock at the EU and switch to a canada type arrangement in the end as I cant see May having any flexibility from the EU to make the deal more acceptable to them.
Even then though she needs all the ERG mob, the DUP and her remain MP's to get the deal over the line which I just dont see happening.
And unless the extension is for a GE or a 2nd ref I am honestly not sure all 27 will give the extension or at least not beyind the EU elections (which frankly at this point makes an extension of that time frame not really worth anything).

The legal default is for No deal and until parliament agrees a process that carries a majority to stop that some in the ERG will be clinging on to their hope of what they see as a true brexit (and presumably a start of the British empire 2.0)
 
JPRouve said:
I know that you are joking but you do realize that people fought and die for these borders?
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Of course I do. What does that have to do with making jokes? We joke about the troubles in Ireland and our history with the British Empire all the time. There have been endless jokes about the French and their surrender over the years.

I'm not getting into a debate about "acceptable jokes", though, we probably won't agree.
 
sun_tzu said:
inevitably when it comes to a binary option thats split pretty close down the middle its going to be divisive.
A GE in this climate or a second ref could genuinley fracture UK politics forever - which actually in the long run might not be the worst thing (or equally could be terrible - as I say binary options)
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It might fracture the parties, and maybe even spawn a new one or two, but in the grand scheme of things why not? People don’t trust politicians or have any faith in the political system now, so I really don’t see what exactly is going to be so damaging. More people won’t vote maybe?
 
May's deal with the backstop amended is the only option.

That would bring the ERG onside which will lessen the claims of sell-out among the wider Leave vote.

All other options open up a shed load of worms.

The EU needs to reconsider their position on this.

We need to get the WA out of the way.

Then argue about the future relationship.

In any case the final deal will pretty much have to be be some form of 'a customs union'.
 
Honest John said:
May's deal with the backstop amended is the only option.

That would bring the ERG onside which will lessen the claims of sell-out among the wider Leave vote.

All other options open up a shed load of worms.

The EU needs to reconsider their position on this.
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Why would the EU sell out Ireland?
 
The "no majority for no deal" seems pretty pointless to me. Unless parliament gets a majority for something else (seems impossible atm), no deal will happen by default.
 
Massive Spanner said:
Of course I do. What does that have to do with making jokes? We joke about the troubles in Ireland and our history with the British Empire all the time. There have been endless jokes about the French and their surrender over the years.

I'm not getting into a debate about "acceptable jokes", though, we probably won't agree.
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I didn't say that you couldn't make a joke, I didn't took it badly that's why I mentioned that I know that it was a joke. I just think that sometimes it's important to talk about their content, for example Vichy was a dictatorship and logically not very popular, nor was the collaboration that it imposed. It's off topic though since on land we'd batter the english.
 
Adisa said:
The "no majority for no deal" seems pretty pointless to me. Unless parliament gets a majority for something else (seems impossible atm), no deal will happen by default.
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It's meaningless.

They have to agree something, which seems unlikely.

What is certain is that the backstop is not going to change, the withdrawal agreement is not really going to change, and Corbyn's unicorns are non -starters .

The political declaration may change but that would be towards the UK/EU intending to have some sort of deal in the future either being in the CU/SM assuming acceptance of EFTA etc or towards a special Canada FTA which does not solve the Irish border.

The EU are not going to allow the UK to extend A50 unless they see the UK actually definitively heading in one direction.
 
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Honest John said:
May's deal with the backstop amended is the only option.

That would bring the ERG onside which will lessen the claims of sell-out among the wider Leave vote.

All other options open up a shed load of worms.

The EU needs to reconsider their position on this.

We need to get the WA out of the way.

Then argue about the future relationship.

In any case the final deal will pretty much have to be be some form of 'a customs union'.
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With the whole of the erg onside she still looses the vote... Even with the dup as well... She has enough remain mps Who voted against her deal to mean that she can't go down the route is a harder brexit as the erg demand and get a deal Past.

I genuinely think she's going to have to accept parliament taking over or go for a ge and given how stubborn she is I think a ge is more probable
 
When you take a step back, It really is staggering that the government thinks its sensible to just press on as if nothing has changed since it lost by a historic margin.

Plan B is just more of Plan A.
 
Getting almost boring now. I thought something substantial would had to have happened by now given the monstrous defeat she suffered.

Just sleep walking into oblivion it seems.
 
Paul the Wolf said:
It's meaningless.

They have to agree something, which seems unlikely.

What is certain is that the backstop is not going to change, the withdrawal agreement is not really going to change, and Corbyn's unicorns are non -starters .

The political declaration may change but that would be towards the UK/EU intending to have some sort of deal in the future either being in the CU/SM assuming acceptance of EFTA etc or towards a special Canada FTA which does not solve the Irish border.

The EU are not going to allow the UK to extend A50 unless they see the UK actually definitively heading in one direction.
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I keep hearing MPs and the DUP spouting rubbish about wanting the backstop to be time limited or give the UK the ability to withdraw from it.

Maybe i'm misunderstanding the purpose of it, but isn't a backstop an agreed position that both sides default to in the event of no agreement. In the case of this one largely to protect the GFA yes?

In which case wouldn't making it time limited or the UK having the ability to pull out of it make it pointless?
 
Honest John said:
May's deal with the backstop amended is the only option.

That would bring the ERG onside which will lessen the claims of sell-out among the wider Leave vote.

All other options open up a shed load of worms.

The EU needs to reconsider their position on this.

We need to get the WA out of the way.

Then argue about the future relationship.

In any case the final deal will pretty much have to be be some form of 'a customs union'.
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Why would the EU want to help her to get the UK out of the EU?
 
stevoc said:
I keep hearing MPs and the DUP spouting rubbish about wanting the backstop to be time limited or give the UK the ability to withdraw from it.

Maybe i'm misunderstanding the purpose of it, but isn't a backstop an agreed position that both sides default to in the event of no agreement. In the case of this one largely to protect the GFA yes?

In which case wouldn't making it time limited or the UK having the ability to pull out of it make it pointless?
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You are spot on. The debate about the backstop is probably the stupidest of them all.
 
stevoc said:
I keep hearing MPs and the DUP spouting rubbish about wanting the backstop to be time limited or give the UK the ability to withdraw from it.

Maybe i'm misunderstanding the purpose of it, but isn't a backstop an agreed position that both sides default to in the event of no agreement. In the case of this one largely to protect the GFA yes?

In which case wouldn't making it time limited or the UK having the ability to pull out of it make it pointless?
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DUP don't care about that at all.
 
Sassy Colin said:
What's the point of a GE anyway?

Even if the Tory's win and regain their majority in Parliament, we are still at an impasse over stay, leave, May's deal, no deal. What would change there?
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Presumably in the manifesto there would be a policy ref brexit ... MPs who won't sign up will potentially be deselected so in theory if they win a majority those mps will feel largely compelled to back the manifesto policy

That said Jacob Boris Davies etc might sign up for the new brexit means brexit party so it could totally backfire on may
 
stevoc said:
I keep hearing MPs and the DUP spouting rubbish about wanting the backstop to be time limited or give the UK the ability to withdraw from it.

Maybe i'm misunderstanding the purpose of it, but isn't a backstop an agreed position that both sides default to in the event of no agreement. In the case of this one largely to protect the GFA yes?

In which case wouldn't making it time limited or the UK having the ability to pull out of it make it pointless?
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Yes , it cannot be time limited , it's an insurance policy if no realistic solution can be found in the future. Until one is found it has to stay in existence and no-one can say when or if that will be.
 
Honest John said:
May's deal with the backstop amended is the only option.

That would bring the ERG onside which will lessen the claims of sell-out among the wider Leave vote.

All other options open up a shed load of worms.

The EU needs to reconsider their position on this.

We need to get the WA out of the way.

Then argue about the future relationship.

In any case the final deal will pretty much have to be be some form of 'a customs union'.
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Why is it the EU that needs to move? Ireland want the backstop, they are backing their member?
 
stevoc said:
I keep hearing MPs and the DUP spouting rubbish about wanting the backstop to be time limited or give the UK the ability to withdraw from it.

Maybe i'm misunderstanding the purpose of it, but isn't a backstop an agreed position that both sides default to in the event of no agreement. In the case of this one largely to protect the GFA yes?

In which case wouldn't making it time limited or the UK having the ability to pull out of it make it pointless?
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Yep, a time limit would make a backstop utterly pointless.
 
Paul the Wolf said:
Yes , it cannot be time limited , it's an insurance policy if no realistic solution can be found in the future. Until one is found it has to stay in existence and no-one can say when or if that will be.
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So basically we are where we were nearly 3 years ago. With remainers asking how they will resolve the NI border issue and still gettting nothing but soundbites in return.
 
Even with the backstop magically resolved It's not 100% that her deal gets approved.

Approved subject to a referendum perhaps
 
JPRouve said:
You are spot on. The debate about the backstop is probably the stupidest of them all.
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Paul the Wolf said:
Yes , it cannot be time limited , it's an insurance policy if no realistic solution can be found in the future. Until one is found it has to stay in existence and no-one can say when or if that will be.
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sullydnl said:
Yep, a time limit would make a backstop utterly pointless.
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Cheers lads, i thought i must have been way off in my understanding of it because of all the talk about renegotiating it. It's scary that a random person like me does understand it and elected members of parliament don't seem to or pretend that they don't. Don't know which is worse.

Minimalist said:
DUP don't care about that at all.
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As we know over here mate they seem to care about very little beyond their own agenda.
 
Flying high said:
So basically we are where we were nearly 3 years ago. With remainers asking how they will resolve the NI border issue and still gettting nothing but soundbites in return.
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Yes pretty much so, problem is there are now only 67 days left and all sides of the house are still trying to agree on something, most of which won't be agreed by the EU anyway.
 
The truly fecked up part about the backstop is the way the UK is portraying it as if it’s some unreasonable Irish demand. If the Good Friday agreement falls apart, and the violence restarts it’s going to be primarily in Northern Ireland not Ireland where the bombings and killings take place. Last I checked Northern Ireland was still part of the UK.
 
Kentonio said:
The truly fecked up part about the backstop is the way the UK is portraying it as if it’s some unreasonable Irish demand. If the Good Friday agreement falls apart, and the violence restarts it’s going to be primarily in Northern Ireland not Ireland where the bombings and killings take place. Last I checked Northern Ireland was still part of the UK.
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The same Northern Ireland that voted to stay in the EU, lest we forget.
 
Kentonio said:
The truly fecked up part about the backstop is the way the UK is portraying it as if it’s some unreasonable Irish demand. If the Good Friday agreement falls apart, and the violence restarts it’s going to be primarily in Northern Ireland not Ireland where the bombings and killings take place. Last I checked Northern Ireland was still part of the UK.
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How much does the mainland UK actually care about NI though? It seems like there are MPs who, if promised that the violence would be contained within NI, would readily accept that as the price of Brexit.
 
Flying high said:
And yet their only representatives in westminster, are the leave crew.

You couldn't make it up.
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I can only hope that what the DUP are currently engaged in is not forgotten by the majority of people in NI (some of who would be DUP supporters) in the next elections and they get ripped to shreds. Sadly I fear that won't happen.
 
sullydnl said:
How much does the mainland UK actually care about NI though? It seems like there are MPs who, if promised that the violence would be contained within NI, would readily accept that as the price of Brexit.
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Most of them probably just see NI as a financial burden and nothing else.
 
sullydnl said:
How much does the mainland UK actually care about NI though? It seems like there are MPs who, if promised that the violence would be contained within NI, would readily accept that as the price of Brexit.
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I don't think they give a crap.
 
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