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Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?


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Im saying its the day before that happening - do you think any of the parties would start crossing their various red lines to get something through? Do you think if the leader did would the party follow?

Ah I see, the UK are due to leave on the 29th. If there is going to be something towards the end of the process I would think it would have to be well before that. But there are so many factions within each party I don't see how there can be an agreement.
You never know though and at the last minute the UK said, Ok we'll sign the Withdrawal Agreement or we'll revoke A50 the EU would probably agree.
 
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Based on what historic data?

Why do you specify 'historic' data? The we know the disastrous implication of a no deal brexit comes from educated predictions, I can't offer you historical data as there has never been a no deal brexit, the closest thing would be pointing to the reasons why we joined the EU in the first place.

How do you think a no deal brexit would go?
 
I don't think that you understand what the withdrawal agreement and the backstop are about. It's about your first sentence, about what happens between now and "in time". It has nothing to do with overturning the referendum.
No you don’t understand. There will be no deal without some flexibility on the backstop. Blithely suggesting that it’s a mess so let’s just stop it is naive. There will be an outcry. And much as I do not like the situation I am starting to get pissed off with the EU. What is this? The fecking Hotel California? What is the point of A50 if it can never be enacted without the leaver suffering severe punitive consequence? Ireland will be much worse off with a no deal so they need to move. And now I hear fecking Blair is tramping around Europe canvassing every man and his dog to hold firm because a 2nd referendum is inevitable.
 
No you don’t understand. There will be no deal without some flexibility on the backstop. Blithely suggesting that it’s a mess so let’s just stop it is naive. There will be an outcry. And much as I do not like the situation I am starting to get pissed off with the EU. What is this? The fecking Hotel California? What is the point of A50 if it can never be enacted without the leaver suffering severe punitive consequence? Ireland will be much worse off with a no deal so they need to move. And now I hear fecking Blair is tramping around Europe canvassing every man and his dog to hold firm because a 2nd referendum is inevitable.

Are you against a second referendum?
 
I think we should have a street party every year with bunting, cakes and tea. It shall be "Life after Brexit" day and anyone left who still has a job can have a holiday?
As long as it’s a week in margate
 

See the unicorns are still there

The cross-party group, supported by dozens of Labour MPs, posed five questions that it believes Corbyn’s Brexit model struggles to answer, escalating tensions between campaigners and the party’s leadership.

A 16-page evaluation placed Labour’s plan on a par with both the no-deal option supported by hard Brexit Tories and the Norway-plus customs union alternative, in that they were no better than pledges made by the leave campaign at the time of the EU referendum.

“All three alternative plans,” the analysis added “share many similarities with the arguments made for Brexit in 2016 when big promises were made with little regard for what could actually be delivered.”
 
No you don’t understand. There will be no deal without some flexibility on the backstop. Blithely suggesting that it’s a mess so let’s just stop it is naive. There will be an outcry. And much as I do not like the situation I am starting to get pissed off with the EU. What is this? The fecking Hotel California? What is the point of A50 if it can never be enacted without the leaver suffering severe punitive consequence? Ireland will be much worse off with a no deal so they need to move. And now I hear fecking Blair is tramping around Europe canvassing every man and his dog to hold firm because a 2nd referendum is inevitable.
Why? This is all a mess of our own making. Why trigger Article 50 if we had no idea how the feck we were going to solve these problems?
 
No you don’t understand. There will be no deal without some flexibility on the backstop. Blithely suggesting that it’s a mess so let’s just stop it is naive. There will be an outcry. And much as I do not like the situation I am starting to get pissed off with the EU. What is this? The fecking Hotel California? What is the point of A50 if it can never be enacted without the leaver suffering severe punitive consequence? Ireland will be much worse off with a no deal so they need to move. And now I hear fecking Blair is tramping around Europe canvassing every man and his dog to hold firm because a 2nd referendum is inevitable.

He is 100% correct.
The Uk should have thought of that before voting to Leave.

None of the other EU countries has the GFA apart from Ireland.
 
All that can be resolved in time. The referendum result is not going to be overturned. People need to get used to it. I hate it as much as most here. But it is what it is and now we have to make the best and move forward. As pointless as it may seem they should put a time limit on the backstop and then work their tits off to get the deal done before it ends. Stupid I know but this whole thing is stupid. Trying to reverse this will be more of a disaster for the UK than rolling with it now. I fear that some on here underestimate that.

Why? Because half the population will be furious about what the government has done to the future of their country? How is that different to the current situation?!?

And at least their upset won’t have added spice from the whole economic suicide thing.
 
No you don’t understand. There will be no deal without some flexibility on the backstop. Blithely suggesting that it’s a mess so let’s just stop it is naive. There will be an outcry. And much as I do not like the situation I am starting to get pissed off with the EU. What is this? The fecking Hotel California? What is the point of A50 if it can never be enacted without the leaver suffering severe punitive consequence? Ireland will be much worse off with a no deal so they need to move. And now I hear fecking Blair is tramping around Europe canvassing every man and his dog to hold firm because a 2nd referendum is inevitable.

The point of A50 is that you can leave the EU. No one is stopping Britain, no one is punishing them. The only problem for Britain is that a) the EU isn't as bad as the leave campaign made it out to be, so they want to leave, but don't really want to leave and b) no one in Britain had any idea what Brexit actually means or what the majority can agree on, even two years of negotiations they still don't. The biggest obstacle is the GFA, which has very little to do with the EU and a lot to do with a certain refusal to accept reality from British politicians.
 
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Are you against a second referendum?
Yes I am. It will be an anathema to the people who voted leave what ever way it is diced and as for the questions, well you tell me.
It’s a disaster, but May’s deal with movement on the backstop is the best of all the shitty ideas.
 
Yes I am. It will be an anathema to the people who voted leave what ever way it is diced and as for the questions, well you tell me.
It’s a disaster, but May’s deal with movement on the backstop is the best of all the shitty ideas.

So what?

Brexit is an anathema to everyone else and clearly a disaster for Britain as a whole.
 
No you don’t understand. There will be no deal without some flexibility on the backstop. Blithely suggesting that it’s a mess so let’s just stop it is naive. There will be an outcry. And much as I do not like the situation I am starting to get pissed off with the EU. What is this? The fecking Hotel California? What is the point of A50 if it can never be enacted without the leaver suffering severe punitive consequence? Ireland will be much worse off with a no deal so they need to move. And now I hear fecking Blair is tramping around Europe canvassing every man and his dog to hold firm because a 2nd referendum is inevitable.

You are all over the place here. The UK took a decision that goes against an other agreement that they have with ROI and NI, that's why they need a backstop. There are no punitive consequences unless if you consider respecting deals as punitive. It's amazing that the UK take a decision but refuses to accept its consequences and blame everyone under the sun for it.
 
Are you for real? The point of A50 is that you can leave the EU. No one is stopping Britain, no one is punishing them. The only problem for Britain is that a) the EU isn't as bad as the leave campaign made it out to be, so they want to leave, but don't really want to leave and b) no one in Britain had any idea what Brexit actually means or what the majority can agree on, even two years of negotiations they still don't.
This is going round in circles with the same old silly boy argument. It won’t solve anything. The eu agreed a WA, with some other arrangement on the backstop it passes parliament. If they are serious then bloody well talk about it. No deal is the default legal position and May won’t take it off the table. So Ireland needs to think about it.
 
See the unicorns are still there

The cross-party group, supported by dozens of Labour MPs, posed five questions that it believes Corbyn’s Brexit model struggles to answer, escalating tensions between campaigners and the party’s leadership.

A 16-page evaluation placed Labour’s plan on a par with both the no-deal option supported by hard Brexit Tories and the Norway-plus customs union alternative, in that they were no better than pledges made by the leave campaign at the time of the EU referendum.

“All three alternative plans,” the analysis added “share many similarities with the arguments made for Brexit in 2016 when big promises were made with little regard for what could actually be delivered.”

This is the shadow housing minister
 
This is going round in circles with the same old silly boy argument. It won’t solve anything. The eu agreed a WA, with some other arrangement on the backstop it passes parliament. If they are serious then bloody well talk about it. No deal is the default legal position and May won’t take it off the table. So Ireland needs to think about it.

You don't even know that if the backstop was changed , which it won't and can't be, it would pass parliament. It still probably wouldn't.
 
I'd have sympathy for those arguing from the democratic POV if parliament were putting forward viable proposals to leave the EU. As it stands, they aren't. The only one left is to remain within the customs union. If it's No Deal or a second referendum then a second referendum is clearly the better option. It may have been the will of the people to leave the EU but that same will elected our current leaders, and as it stands those current leaders are proving themselves to be incompetent in delivering Brexit.
 
Why? This is all a mess of our own making. Why trigger Article 50 if we had no idea how the feck we were going to solve these problems?
I wonder what the situation would be if say the SNP won their referendum by 52 48 and the UK government with the Scottish labour and Tory parties were trying to reverse it. You reckon the Scots would take that lying down?
 
I wonder what the situation would be if say the SNP won their referendum by 52 48 and the UK government with the Scottish labour and Tory parties were trying to reverse it. You reckon the Scots would take that lying down?

You still make no sense. Scotland doesn't have a border issue, they don't have an agreement to not have borders.
 
You don't even know that if the backstop was changed , which it won't and can't be, it would pass parliament. It still probably wouldn't.
It would be the solution that would be closest to passing. And by your yardstick what if there was a second referendum and leave won again. You’d have pissed off 17.4 million people to change nothing.
 
Yes I am. It will be an anathema to the people who voted leave what ever way it is diced and as for the questions, well you tell me.
It’s a disaster, but May’s deal with movement on the backstop is the best of all the shitty ideas.

At the start of this thread you actually suggested a second referendum, why has that changed?

And I can't tell you, I genuinely don't know what the disastrous implications you mentioned to be. That's why I asked, riots?
 
This is going round in circles with the same old silly boy argument. It won’t solve anything. The eu agreed a WA, with some other arrangement on the backstop it passes parliament. If they are serious then bloody well talk about it. No deal is the default legal position and May won’t take it off the table. So Ireland needs to think about it.


It's fairly simple, isn't it?
a) The four freedoms are the very core principle of the EU.
b) Either the UK accepts the four freedoms or it will have to have a hard border with the EU and thus Ireland to enforce the differences.
c) The GFA says there can't be a hard border with Ireland and the UK.

You think the EU and it's 27 remaining members should abandon the very core principles of their union for a state that's leaving the bloc? Because the UK is trying to push for something that violates their own treaty with Ireland?
It's up the UK to either accept regulatory alignment with the EU, modify/abandon the GFA or come up with some magical solution.
 
You still make no sense. Scotland doesn't have a border issue, they don't have an agreement to not have borders.
the sense is that there was a referendum and however stupid we think the people who voted to leave are, the genie is out of the bottle and it won’t be put back. If they are fecked over I truly believe lives will be lost. But hey if that’s worth avoiding any economic hit then so be it eh. What will the questions be? Do you seriously think that 17.4 million people after having been called stupid for three years are suddenly going to admit the error of their ways and vote against leaving in some way.
 
It would be the solution that would be closest to passing. And by your yardstick what if there was a second referendum and leave won again. You’d have pissed off 17.4 million people to change nothing.

I don't think a GE or a referendum would solve anything. For me there are 3 choices, which there always were, which parliament has to now decide , leave with no deal, cancel Brexit or go with the withdrawal agreement as it is.
Millions are going to be seriously unhappy whatever and the chances are that all of them will be with no deal.

A backstop can not have a time limit.
Even in the event that the backstop were changed, do you actually see parliament agreeing on anything going forward, there are too many divisions.
 
the sense is that there was a referendum and however stupid we think the people who voted to leave are, the genie is out of the bottle and it won’t be put back. If they are fecked over I truly believe lives will be lost. But hey if that’s worth avoiding any economic hit then so be it eh. What will the questions be? Do you seriously think that 17.4 million people after having been called stupid for three years are suddenly going to admit the error of their ways and vote against leaving in some way.

Which has absolutely nothing to do with the backstop or the issue at hand. Read the points b and c in @do.ob's last post. The issue isn't the referendum or preventing the EU from leaving, the backstop doesn't prevent anything.
 
At the start of this thread you actually suggested a second referendum, why has that changed?

And I can't tell you, I genuinely don't know what the disastrous implications you mentioned to be. That's why I asked, riots?
I was pissed off with the result and like many considered the leave campaign to be lies. But looking at it in the round now I cannot see a way out. May’s deal as mad as it seems given the weight of the defeat is still the one most likely to get a majority. But it needs movement on the backstop. Now I hear all this lot chucking all the logic, law and 4 freedoms at me but something has to be done and it sure as shit is not reversing A50 or a 2nd ref. Nobody wants no deal but at this moment in time it is set in law and is the default position if no deal is struck. Ireland have overplayed its hand on this because a no deal brexit would be a far bigger disaster for them. So they need to soften up a bit. Agree a time limit - as bulshitty that may be it would be enough for the Brexiteers and the DUP. Then if May can do some deals with the opposition on workers rights and environmental law then she might get it over the line.
 
I was pissed off with the result and like many considered the leave campaign to be lies. But looking at it in the round now I cannot see a way out. May’s deal as mad as it seems given the weight of the defeat is still the one most likely to get a majority. But it needs movement on the backstop. Now I hear all this lot chucking all the logic, law and 4 freedoms at me but something has to be done and it sure as shit is not reversing A50 or a 2nd ref. Nobody wants no deal but at this moment in time it is set in law and is the default position if no deal is struck. Ireland have overplayed its hand on this because a no deal brexit would be a far bigger disaster for them. So they need to soften up a bit. Agree a time limit - as bulshitty that may be it would be enough for the Brexiteers and the DUP. Then if May can do some deals with the opposition on workers rights and environmental law then she might get it over the line.

Thanks for answering, I'm fully behind a 2nd ref but I appreciate you taking the time to explain your stance.
 
I was pissed off with the result and like many considered the leave campaign to be lies. But looking at it in the round now I cannot see a way out. May’s deal as mad as it seems given the weight of the defeat is still the one most likely to get a majority. But it needs movement on the backstop. Now I hear all this lot chucking all the logic, law and 4 freedoms at me but something has to be done and it sure as shit is not reversing A50 or a 2nd ref. Nobody wants no deal but at this moment in time it is set in law and is the default position if no deal is struck. Ireland have overplayed its hand on this because a no deal brexit would be a far bigger disaster for them. So they need to soften up a bit. Agree a time limit - as bulshitty that may be it would be enough for the Brexiteers and the DUP. Then if May can do some deals with the opposition on workers rights and environmental law then she might get it over the line.

No.1 loser by far is the UK with no deal, not Ireland, even though it will be hit hard. The EU are never ever going to compromise the 4 freedoms so it's no deal then .
 
I was pissed off with the result and like many considered the leave campaign to be lies. But looking at it in the round now I cannot see a way out. May’s deal as mad as it seems given the weight of the defeat is still the one most likely to get a majority. But it needs movement on the backstop. Now I hear all this lot chucking all the logic, law and 4 freedoms at me but something has to be done and it sure as shit is not reversing A50 or a 2nd ref. Nobody wants no deal but at this moment in time it is set in law and is the default position if no deal is struck. Ireland have overplayed its hand on this because a no deal brexit would be a far bigger disaster for them. So they need to soften up a bit. Agree a time limit - as bulshitty that may be it would be enough for the Brexiteers and the DUP. Then if May can do some deals with the opposition on workers rights and environmental law then she might get it over the line.

If British politicians want to keep refusing simple realities to the point of a no deal Brexit then that's sad for everyone, but I don't think it can be helped. The British position is that they want 1+1 to be 3. You can't negotiate like that, you can't accomodate such a position any further.
The backstop itself is already a helping hand from Brussels, because it allows both parties to negotiate a future trade deal while assuming that the biggest obstacle of all will somehow be solved, but you can't set a fantasy expiration date when there is no solution in sight.
 
No.1 loser by far is the UK with no deal, not Ireland, even though it will be hit hard. The EU are never ever going to compromise the 4 freedoms so it's no deal then .
The EU have agreed a WA among the 27. In agreeing it and declaring the backstop temporary they must have a concept of how the border issue may be resolve with the final trade deal. Else why agree the WA.
 
It's actually daft. The UK takes a decision and everyone has to change at the exception of the UK who for some reason is the only one not making compromises, not accepting the consequences of its actions and not offering any alternatives.