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Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?

  • Total voters
    194
  • Poll closed .
Infra-red said:
Correct, that's May's plan now, the ERG/Tory Brexiteers have won that particular battle.

The only thing that can stop it is, 1. a general election, 2. a referendum, or 3. unilaterally revoking A50. The question is, will a majority of MPs fall behind one of those three options when staring down the barrel of no deal.
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I think may is a little more stubborn than that
I think she sees 300+ MP's voting for the spellman amendment against no deal and in her mind is if she can string the erg along for long enough and it does literally come down to (her) deal or no deal she will bet enough MPs begrudgingly backing it... Then she can run off into the wheatfields thinking she's played a blinder and leave it to mogg / Johnson to be the fire to her fyring pan
 
sun_tzu said:
I think may is a little more stubborn than that
I think she sees 300+ MP's voting for the spellman amendment against no deal and in her mind is if she can string the erg along for long enough and it does literally come down to (her) deal or no deal she will bet enough MPs begrudgingly backing it... Then she can run off into the wheatfields thinking she's played a blinder and leave it to mogg / Johnson to be the fire to her fyring pan
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To be fair, if she gets some version of her deal through the commons eventually, by hook or by crook, then she has played a blinder, politically speaking.
 
MikeUpNorth said:
To be fair, if she gets some version of her deal through the commons eventually, by hook or by crook, then she has played a blinder, politically speaking.
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To be honest if there is any deal then unless the UK negotiating position changes its basically this deal...
Part of the problem is it's seen as Mays deal (as instantly the opposition parties oppose it) and that's largely down to the way she treated parliament in the negotiations.
But ultimately it's this deal or no deal and on that basis parliament seems to suggest they don't want no deal and I think the no deal is better than a bad deal days are sounding like a distant and hollow threat
I could see the erg swallowing this deal and may quits almost straight away and leta let conservatives vote for a new leader / pm... Johnson... Mogg... Or pob
She won't get the dup to agree but faced with no deal I could see 20 or so labour MP's defecting as there are plenty who will be deselcted by momentum anyway so might as well vote to block no deal even if it means backing Mays deal.
I actually think this is more likley than no deal or actually a real re-negotiation or a ge or a 2nd ref
 
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So...
  1. There's one and only one deal on table.

MPs want a new deal, but can't happen because of (1).

MPs won't let us leave without a deal, but that can't happen because they've said that (1) is unacceptable

We're stuck between a rock and a hard place.

The only way out is a new Referendum of some sort. Obviously, Brexiteers aren't going to be happy, so it can only be announced after every other option has been exhausted in the most public way possible. I think that's the tiresome process we're going through right now.
 
MikeUpNorth said:
That is the Irish position, but I don’t fully understand it. The UK leaving without a deal now would be exactly the same as the UK leaving without a deal in a few years time, if they time limited the backstop. Why chose certain pain now over potential pain later? My only conclusion is that they don’t really believe the UK will go through with a ‘no deal’ scenario. They underestimate our stupidity.

The real reason, in my opinion, that the EU will never agree to time limit the backstop is because it would fundamentally change the nature of negotiations on the future trade deal. With the indefinite backstop, the EU basically has no pressure to conclude a trade deal and can play hardball on the fine road points of a trade deal. If the backstop had an expiry date then that advantage is neutralised as both parties have a clock ticking and need to compromise.

Remember, this is just a withdrawal agreement at this stage. All the real hard negotiations around trade still have to be done in the coming years, whatever happens.

It’s what I don’t undertand about the ‘just get on with it crowd’. Even if we leave without a deal in March, the next 3-5 years would still be entirely consumed by trade negotiations with the EU. Whatever happens in the next month, it’s just the very beginning...
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Yes, I would very much imagine they expect the UK to cave one way or another as they believe the UK ultimately has more to lose in a no deal scenario. It's a rather high risk approach though.

There's also the internal Irish politics of the situation to consider. If a no deal comes about then the UK will be blamed for undermining the GFA, especially given that the Irish government's current approach to Brexit has public support. If Fine Gael caves on the backstop then they will ship criticism instead, which would be hugely damaging politically.
 
Dante said:
So...
  1. There's one and only one deal on table.

MPs want a new deal, but can't happen because of (1).

MPs won't let us leave without a deal, but that can't happen because they've said that (1) is unacceptable

We're stuck between a rock and a hard place.

The only way out is a new Referendum of some sort. Obviously, Brexiteers aren't going to be happy, so it can only be announced after every other option has been exhausted in the most public way possible. I think that's the tiresome process we're going through right now.
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It seems to me that a referendum is far less likely than a GE.

Best case scenario at this point I think is A50 being extended for a GE.
 
MikeUpNorth said:
That is the Irish position, but I don’t fully understand it. The UK leaving without a deal now would be exactly the same as the UK leaving without a deal in a few years time, if they time limited the backstop. Why chose certain pain now over potential pain later? My only conclusion is that they don’t really believe the UK will go through with a ‘no deal’ scenario. They underestimate our stupidity.
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The Irish can't agree to something that fundamentally breaks the GFA even if the British Government doesn't seem to give a shit. That they may get a hard border anyway shows how little the consequences of leaving were thought about prior to the referendum and/or how contemptuous of the Irish many Brits are.

It’s what I don’t undertand about the ‘just get on with it crowd’. Even if we leave without a deal in March, the next 3-5 years would still be entirely consumed by trade negotiations with the EU. Whatever happens in the next month, it’s just the very beginning...
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You are part of project fear ;)
 
caid said:
If May lost a vote of confidence would anyone still have authority to revoke a50? Could the parliament continue sitting long enough to do that or how does that work?
Cant see a General Election happening by other means
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Any group of MPs have 14 days to pass another vote of confidence and form a government. If they can't then a GE is triggered.

A national government is still a reasonable possibility in my view. I've been thinking that since I realised the withdrawal agreement in current form will never pass.
 
MikeUpNorth said:
That is the Irish position, but I don’t fully understand it. The UK leaving without a deal now would be exactly the same as the UK leaving without a deal in a few years time, if they time limited the backstop. Why chose certain pain now over potential pain later? My only conclusion is that they don’t really believe the UK will go through with a ‘no deal’ scenario. They underestimate our stupidity.

The real reason, in my opinion, that the EU will never agree to time limit the backstop is because it would fundamentally change the nature of negotiations on the future trade deal. With the indefinite backstop, the EU basically has no pressure to conclude a trade deal and can play hardball on the fine road points of a trade deal. If the backstop had an expiry date then that advantage is neutralised as both parties have a clock ticking and need to compromise.

Remember, this is just a withdrawal agreement at this stage. All the real hard negotiations around trade still have to be done in the coming years, whatever happens.

It’s what I don’t undertand about the ‘just get on with it crowd’. Even if we leave without a deal in March, the next 3-5 years would still be entirely consumed by trade negotiations with the EU. Whatever happens in the next month, it’s just the very beginning...
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I think our view is more that a no deal and leaving your borders open and the various other unicorns your MP's are pushing for isn't a tolerable situation. Sooner or later you'd have to ... come to terms with trade laws as they exist? Or you wouldn't maybe and become some strange little outlier like North Korea or something in which case we'd probably want to distance ourselves from you as much as possible.
We just have more time on our side than you do, we've got existing backups to replace you with. Northern Ireland is where the real pain will be felt but we aren't in a position to help them any more than insisting on a backstop. Even if we rolled over the other 26 countries have a pile of issues with it.
If there was an alternative proposal to deal with it, it might be different. But there never is
 
Mb194dc said:
Any group of MPs have 14 days to pass another vote of confidence and form a government. If they can't then a GE is triggered.

A national government is still a reasonable possibility in my view. I've been thinking that since I realised the withdrawal agreement in current form will never pass.
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Thats something.
Could they vote on revoking a50 before reforming a government?
 
Drainy said:
I've heard a caller on LBC saying that we've gotten too soft and hard times might be good for us as a country.
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They'll try to spin anything into a positive, delusional.

I seen Andrew Bridgen on Channel 4 last night saying we won't be ''crashing out with no deal, we'll be cashing in''. I assume he was only referring to himself and his headbanger mates in the ERG.

This is the idiot who thought English people had the right to apply for an Irish passport.
 
caid said:
I think our view is more that a no deal and leaving your borders open and the various other unicorns your MP's are pushing for isn't a tolerable situation. Sooner or later you'd have to ... come to terms with trade laws as they exist? Or you wouldn't maybe and become some strange little outlier like North Korea or something in which case we'd probably want to distance ourselves from you as much as possible.
We just have more time on our side than you do, we've got existing backups to replace you with. Northern Ireland is where the real pain will be felt but we aren't in a position to help them any more than insisting on a backstop. Even if we rolled over the other 26 countries have a pile of issues with it.
If there was an alternative proposal to deal with it, it might be different. But there never is
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Yep, agree with all that. It would be curious to see what would actually happen to the border in a 'no deal' scenario. Sadly, we might well find out pretty quickly.

But I also do think MPs have a point that an indefinite backstop is not tolerable either. It would very likely become the de facto future arrangement in itself. At every contentious point in the trade negotiations, the EU could just say, 'fine, if you don't want to accept what we propose, then you can just stay in the backstop'. It would kill any negotiating leverage the UK has, and it has very little leverage to begin with.

I've no idea what a conceivable compromise could be. I doubt there is one. The whole thing is an entirely predictable mess.
 
MikeUpNorth said:
Yep, agree with all that. It would be curious to see what would actually happen to the border in a 'no deal' scenario. Sadly, we might well find out pretty quickly.

But I also do think MPs have a point that an indefinite backstop is not tolerable either. It would very likely become the de facto future arrangement in itself. At every contentious point in the trade negotiations, the EU could just say, 'fine, if you don't want to accept what we propose, then you can just stay in the backstop'. It would kill any negotiating leverage the UK has, and it has very little leverage to begin with.

I've no idea what a conceivable compromise could be. I doubt there is one. The whole thing is an entirely predictable mess.
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The idea of the backstop is to largely protect the Good Friday Agreement though until a solution to the border arrangements is found in the future. To put a time limit on it is basically the same as putting a time limit on the Good Friday Agreement.

I doubt the technological solution they've been banging on about the last 2 years will exist for 10-20 years if ever.
 
Is almost the entire parliament fecking delusional? Some papers are even spinning this as a victory for May. WTF? The EU are not going to renegotiate on the backstop?
 
Mb194dc said:
Any group of MPs have 14 days to pass another vote of confidence and form a government. If they can't then a GE is triggered.

A national government is still a reasonable possibility in my view. I've been thinking that since I realised the withdrawal agreement in current form will never pass.
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I'd say there is close to zero chance of this.
 
I feel desperately sorry for the many, many sane British people who are getting lumped in with this but Britain and this Brexit shambles is the biggest laughing stock on an Earth with Donald fecking Trump as president of the United States.

Every so often I have to stop and let that sink in. A thick, racist, sexist, overweight, deluded tit with the IQ and EQ of a spoilt 4 year old is the leader of the words most influential nation and still, somehow, Britain have managed to outdo him on the embarrassment scale.

Yet there are still those within the British government, media and public who think other countries should follow their lead. That Ireland for example, should leave the EU where we have seen growth and prosperity during our few short decades as a member, to throw our lot back in with a Britain under whom we saw centuries of oppression and poverty, because they know what's best for the little old Irish who are obviously so simple they've been hoodwinked by the evil EU.

The delusion is breathtaking. Britain seems barely able to take care of itself a day at a time at the moment but some still think they should be dictating to others on policy and government. Every member of parliament and every party seems thicker than the next, to the extent they've allowed themselves to be controlled and bullied by the bloody DUP. There doesn't exist a bigger waste of space and oxygen on this planet and yet they've been given centre stage to a fiasco that will impact British society and economy for decades.

It's a complete and utter farce and if I wasn't so angry at the disregard and contempt being shown for peace on the island of Ireland, I think at times I would be reduced to fits of uncontrollable laughter.
 
It's the will of the people...who stand to make a fortune out of this obvious swindle.
 
It is obvious that this parliament:

1. Does not want to cancel brexit.
2. Does not want to delay brexit.
3. Does not want a no-deal brexit.
4. Does not want a bad deal brexit.
5. Does not want a EU-approved deal brexit.
 
Surely the only real options, not all mutually exclusive, are

1) Negotiate a delay - this would require a better reason that "we want to keep bickering about what colour unicorn to ride to backstop negotiations".
2) Withdraw A50
3) New referendum (with or without a GE first)
4) No deal exit

Renegotiate backstop isn't one of those options. The EU may have mentioned this before.
 
diarm said:
I feel desperately sorry for the many, many sane British people who are getting lumped in with this but Britain and this Brexit shambles is the biggest laughing stock on an Earth with Donald fecking Trump as president of the United States.

Every so often I have to stop and let that sink in. A thick, racist, sexist, overweight, deluded tit with the IQ and EQ of a spoilt 4 year old is the leader of the words most influential nation and still, somehow, Britain have managed to outdo him on the embarrassment scale.

Yet there are still those within the British government, media and public who think other countries should follow their lead. That Ireland for example, should leave the EU where we have seen growth and prosperity during our few short decades as a member, to throw our lot back in with a Britain under whom we saw centuries of oppression and poverty, because they know what's best for the little old Irish who are obviously so simple they've been hoodwinked by the evil EU.

The delusion is breathtaking. Britain seems barely able to take care of itself a day at a time at the moment but some still think they should be dictating to others on policy and government. Every member of parliament and every party seems thicker than the next, to the extent they've allowed themselves to be controlled and bullied by the bloody DUP. There doesn't exist a bigger waste of space and oxygen on this planet and yet they've been given centre stage to a fiasco that will impact British society and economy for decades.

It's a complete and utter farce and if I wasn't so angry at the disregard and contempt being shown for peace on the island of Ireland, I think at times I would be reduced to fits of uncontrollable laughter.
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Both May and Trump may as well just Tweet "hold my beer" every time the other does something even more stupid than the very stupid thing they last did.
 
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stevoc said:
The idea of the backstop is to largely protect the Good Friday Agreement though until a solution to the border arrangements is found in the future. To put a time limit on it is basically the same as putting a time limit on the Good Friday Agreement.

I doubt the technological solution they've been banging on about the last 2 years will exist for 10-20 years if ever.
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It's not so much about a technological solution, which is pure fantasy, but about alignment of rules. Specifically, whose rules are recognised and applied.

It's not just pure speculation from me that leverage for the future trade negotiations is fundamental to the EU's insistence on the backstop being indefinite. The leaked diplomatic note from Sabine Weyand (the EU negotiator) to EU member states said:

“We should be in the best negotiation position for the future relationship. This [the backstop] requires the customs union as the basis of the future relationship."

“They must align their rules but the EU will retain all the controls. They apply the same rules. UK wants a lot more from future relationship, so EU retains its leverage.”
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I'm an Irish man from the South who will be buying a house in Northern Ireland within the next four years so..Yeah Westminster I guess?
Keep it going?
 
sun_tzu said:
Actually the good faith was the advocate general interpretation... The EU court that said it could be revoked said it slightly differently
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/976296c6-fc6c-11e8-ac00-57a2a826423e


To the best of my understanding if it is totally revoked.. i.e. it's not suspended then it can be withdrawn
At which point you are a full member state with all your rights enshrined in law as before... This includes the right to invoke A50

Suspect the EU would move to close the loophole but that said not sure if we have a veto... One for the lawyers but good faith is implied in all contract law... But meh get the lawyers on it and it could take years to sort out
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Or the EU will do what May has been doing the last 3 years and just go: "That's not how we understand it" and do whatever the feck they like. People forget there's no higher arbiter.
 
Wibble said:
Surely the only real options, not all mutually exclusive, are

1) Negotiate a delay - this would require a better reason that "we want to keep bickering about what colour unicorn to ride to backstop negotiations".
2) Withdraw A50
3) New referendum (with or without a GE first)
4) No deal exit

Renegotiate backstop isn't one of those options. The EU may have mentioned this before.
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'4' isn't going to happen.

'1' is just kicking the can down the road.

That leaves '2' and '3' as the inevitable choices, whether they happen with or without '1'.

I don't think any Parliament can unilaterally take option '2' without instigating a massive riot. '3' is looking more and more like the only feasible way out. It could even be sold as a Dunkirk style tactical retreat if they wanted to appeal to WW2-obsessed sensibilities.

The current political machinations are just about setting the groundwork for the Government to be able to go back the the British people with an excuse for their failures.

The bottom line is that the UK electorate voted for our politicians to try and come up with an exit plan. They made that attempt but not without a few huge question marks. It's only sensible to democratically ask the public for a further steer.
 
Dante said:
'4' isn't going to happen.

'1' is just kicking the can down the road.

That leaves '2' and '3' as the inevitable choices, whether they happen with or without '1'.

I don't think any Parliament can unilaterally take option '2' without instigating a massive riot. '3' is looking more and more like the only feasible way out. It could even be sold as a Dunkirk style tactical retreat if they wanted to appeal to WW2-obsessed sensibilities.

The current political machinations are just about setting the groundwork for the Government to be able to go back the the British people with an excuse for their failures.

The bottom line is that the UK electorate voted for our politicians to try and come up with an exit plan. They made that attempt but not without a few huge question marks. It's only sensible to democratically ask the public for a further steer.
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Why are you ruling out no deal as a possibility? Out of interest.
 
Dante said:
'4' isn't going to happen.

'1' is just kicking the can down the road.

That leaves '2' and '3' as the inevitable choices, whether they happen with or without '1'.

I don't think any Parliament can unilaterally take option '2' without instigating a massive riot. '3' is looking more and more like the only feasible way out. It could even be sold as a Dunkirk style tactical retreat if they wanted to appeal to WW2-obsessed sensibilities.

The current political machinations are just about setting the groundwork for the Government to be able to go back the the British people with an excuse for their failures.

The bottom line is that the UK electorate voted for our politicians to try and come up with an exit plan. They made that attempt but not without a few huge question marks. It's only sensible to democratically ask the public for a further steer.
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Not only is no deal quite possible but it is currently the most likely outcome. The money markets agree.

Of course I don't want that to happen.
 
diarm said:
Just out of interest, what is the laughing face in response to here?
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Just that its a farce. May voting against a clause the UK agreed, in agreement she signed off on, to get the same response on changing it from the EU she got in December. Dark comedy I guess.
 
Wibble said:
I'd say there is close to zero chance of this.
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I think this is what HM would like with her tried and tested recipe for cooperation. All parties working together for a solution.

Brexit should not be dealt with on party lines. Once the referendum was done and Brexit was accepted by the political parties, the whole process should have been done with a cross party team. A consensus should have been found before even issuing A50.

May thought she could railroad whatever through Parliament and didn't need to do that.
 
The front pages of the daily newspapers sum up the issue with this country, they're not remotely tied to reality and for the 80% or more who don't follow proceedings they paint a false picture.
For another thread but then people say Labour can't blame the papers :wenger:

May now has to give up on her red lines of no custom union or no border down the irish sea. Then we're down to it being solely on Labour whether they want to back brexit on those terms, the former they might the latter they won't.

Will people forgive a Labour that takes them out of the EU? I doubt it
 
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MikeUpNorth said:
Yep, agree with all that. It would be curious to see what would actually happen to the border in a 'no deal' scenario. Sadly, we might well find out pretty quickly.

But I also do think MPs have a point that an indefinite backstop is not tolerable either. It would very likely become the de facto future arrangement in itself. At every contentious point in the trade negotiations, the EU could just say, 'fine, if you don't want to accept what we propose, then you can just stay in the backstop'. It would kill any negotiating leverage the UK has, and it has very little leverage to begin with.

I've no idea what a conceivable compromise could be. I doubt there is one. The whole thing is an entirely predictable mess.
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Yes i suppose thats true. One side basically needs to give the other the benefit of the doubt to get past it. Your politicians are completely impossible to trust so ...
It should apply only to northern ireland really. The rest can willingly sign up to the same deal but making it a necessity just isn't helpful really. Maybe make a clause where the stormont assembly can ... do something?
Northern Ireland shouldn't be a bargaining chip in your trade negotiations really.
I dont think it matters tbh. Your joke counter offer from yesterday got a majority of 16 votes a lot of which were gained on the basis that the withdrawal agreement would be reopened so its not just the backstop that you want changed. Really i think the ERG want a no deal brexit and this is a convenient delaying tactic that if we agreed to they'd immediately stop supporting.
May needs to make a deal with labour tbh. Her biggest obstacles to making a deal are the ERG and DUP.
 
As an aside why are the ERG so powerful? I hadn’t heard of them before brexit
 
Good morning BREXIT addicts!
This article sums the current position up rather nicely: Is it Stupidity or Cynical Vandalism?
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jan/29/may-brexit-brady-amendment

"There are two possible reasons for pursuing that strategy. One is stupidity: failure to grasp what the negotiations so far have actually been about and how May’s deal was their logical outcome. The second is cynical vandalism: knowing that the plan will fail and hoping, when it does, to pin blame for a chaotic no-deal Brexit on Brussels intransigence. In truth it would be the fruition of Eurosceptic zealotry."

"Such obtuseness infuriates continental leaders more than the intent to quit their club. It was not a secret that Britain had a Eurosceptic political culture, even if the referendum result was shocking and upsetting. But what was also obvious in Brussels, Berlin and Paris was the gap between the idea of Brexit advertised by the "leave campaign – the narcotic rush of words such as “freedom” and “sovereignty” – and the practical business of extricating Britain from EU structures. Angela Merkel, Emmanuel Macron and others presumed this yawning chasm would be recognised by their British counterpart as a hazard. They expected May to start building bridges from the leavers’ fantasy island to the reality of what was available in negotiations with a bloc of 27 countries – the imbalance of power and the calculus of damage limitation."
 
golden_blunder said:
As an aside why are the ERG so powerful? I hadn’t heard of them before brexit
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They've been there for a long time; since Maastricht this has been their sole focus. The lack of a government majority in the last 2 years gives them power. nothing can be passed without their consent. May is a hostage.
 
golden_blunder said:
As an aside why are the ERG so powerful? I hadn’t heard of them before brexit
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Government only has 10 seat coalition majority with DUP. 30 MPs in ERG I think.

If they don't vote no conservative government.

Also reason May hasn't just agreed customs union. Government would fall.

Have to bare in mind, if May had huge majority we would be stuck with the WA and ERG wouldn't matter.
 
So if as predicted the EU tell her they will not budge on the WA, what happens then?

Does she go back to Parliament and say "they arent moving" and then try and vote through her original deal again?
 
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