If you think this I must have been wrong about you acknowledging we couldnt predict how things would pan out in the long run.
Brexited | the worst threads live the longest
- Thread starter Silva
- Start date
-
In the latest episode of the United Hour Podcast, Nik (@Rood) is joined by CEO Duncan Drasdo and Financial Director Andy Green from the Manchester United Supporters Trust for a special episode on all things behind the scenes at Old Trafford including a brief history of MUST and their aims today, views on INEOS and Sir Jim Ratcliffe so far, and the Old Trafford regeneration.
Yeah that's true.
Its particularly startling in Wales. I was really shocked TBH on the day of the result that this country voted to Leave. Talk about biting the hand that feeds you.
I do think it shows a bit of a failure of imagination to see how things could end up being better outside the EU in the long run.
The way I see it, if I was a betting man, I would bet things will be worse outside the EU over every time horizon. But that doesnt mean I cant see other possibilities.
Its quite easy to see the EU going to shit over the next 10 years, and us being moderately better off for having got out of it early. Again, not a base case scenario, but hardly unfathomable either.
The way I see it, if I was a betting man, I would bet things will be worse outside the EU over every time horizon. But that doesnt mean I cant see other possibilities.
Its quite easy to see the EU going to shit over the next 10 years, and us being moderately better off for having got out of it early. Again, not a base case scenario, but hardly unfathomable either.
Feels more like betting the house on a 2 and 7. With the additional bonus that they won't be able to pack up bags and play the game again in another country.
In all seriousness, if they view politics like a poker game (or a gamble at all) all the luck to them. They'll need it.
Can you describe that imagination, what would be the axes of the betterment?
Hunt been sent out to test reception and wording this morning. Wouldn't be shocked if you hear more tories start to use the phrase 'extra time' rather than extension.
Or he's an idiot hard to tell (if I'm allowed to use the word idiot)
Or he's an idiot hard to tell (if I'm allowed to use the word idiot)
Even in that scenario you’re starting on the backfoot on the long road to “moderately better off” because of the way your economy takes such a kicking from leaving early.
If the EU project does fail over the next 10 years then the countries involved will want to unravel in a way that will minimise the economic harm to everyone involved. With the most powerful economies having the loudest voice. One of which could have been Britain.
Not to mention that Brexit increases the chance of the EU going to shit, so that scenario gets less likely if you voted Remain.
Depends what you mean by long run. In 20 or 30 years time who knows what's going to happen.
But what I would imagine would be of interest to most people would be at least the next 10 years.
Being in favour of being the EU is not just a blanket yes or no.
I always work on logic and examining different aspects of the whole set of consequences of the action of remaining or leaving.
Emotion and wishful thinking do not come into the equation.
I do not see anything that remotely leads me to be believe that could possibly be advantageous for the UK being outside the EU at least for the foreseeable future.
If there was something better than the EU I would be in favour of that.
A new financial crisis on a larger scale than the one in 2010, perhaps Italy goes bankrupt, 27 countries cant agree on a course of action causing paralysis and financial meltdown. An independent UK would be highly exposed in such a scenario but would probably be better off having the freedom to act independently.
Can you seriously not see the possibility of existential crisis for the EU? Or do you just disagree that the UK is actually any better off by being legally outside it?
This presupposes that the countries involved will still have enough control to influence how things unravel. That isnt a given.
Its amazing the amount of pushback you get when taking the position "voting Leave doesnt necessarily make you an idiot."
These are my sentiments too. I have share options in the company I run (I am not an owner). I retire in 6 years time. I have a pension fund that I have built up and is dependent on the stock market because final salary pensions are now pretty much history. All of this is the culmination of a 50 year working career in engineering. My company's sales are 67% dependent either directly or indirectly on Airbus. If we have a hard Brexit and Airbus make good on their threat (and I think they can) then this Company will probably fold making my options worthless. That is to say nothing about the 40 odd people I employ. And please, I don't want to hear any of you 'business experts' out there spouting on about eggs in one basket and diversifying - blah fecking blah. For an SME who's stock-in-trade is manufacturing for the aerospace market, back-filling £3million of work is not a stroke of the pen or a couple of phone calls. It has taken me 12 years to get this place to where it is now. A hard Brexit will be a disaster and will also decimate my pension fund.
So thank you Mr Farage and Co. I do not want to be part of your 'minor disruption'. And as for the bigots and malcontents then they can feck off because fecking me is pure spite and won't solve anything.
Thanks for posting this.
Yeah that's helpful and I read the tweet under that basically says that there could have been a border on the coast of NI if May hadn't called the GE and needed the DUP on board.
Presumably if she proposed this now and went against them she'd need backing from other parties to get it through which is likely but she'd never do it because then she'd permanently lose DUP backing for everything else which would be the end of her government. And some people think she's done well?
She basically shot herself in the head when she called that snap election the daft bint.That sounds like a really shit situation, given how likely hard brexit is now looking. Feel for you, mate.
You didn't describe any betterment of the UK here. You simply created an armageddon scenario in which everyone is worse off but maybe hypothetically the UK who relies heavily on the financial sector aren't hit as hard as it could potentially be. You didn't describe any structural change that would make the UK better outside of the EU, you described the EU potentially being worse than it is now.
Not only would she lose the backing of the DUP, but she’d lose a vote of confidence in the commons and the government would fall. There would then be a general election.Yeah that's helpful and I read the tweet under that basically says that there could have been a border on the coast of NI if May hadn't called the GE and needed the DUP on board.
Presumably if she proposed this now and went against them she'd need backing from other parties to get it through which is likely but she'd never do it because then she'd permanently lose DUP backing for everything else which would be the end of her government. And some people think she's done well?
The EU being worse off and in a state of paralysis because it needs to take decisions quickly and cant kick the can down the road.
The UK being better off because it CAN take decisions, because it is sovereign and doesnt have to reach agreement with other countries in completely different situations.
Going back to posts above, also huge sympathy for people like @Honest John. But in response to the @Smores post he was responding to, I wouldnt blame the protest voter or the ignorant, I would 100% blame the dickheads who thought this question should be settled by a plebiscite. Because at the end of the day there are ignorant people out there, what are they going to do, say, Id better sit this one out, Im too much of an idiot to vote? Once this was put to the vote people were going to vote according to their own personal priorities and mindset, that is their prerogative. It is the fault of the politicians who knew these people existed but gave them a say in it anyway.
If there’s one thing that we can all agree on it’s that brexit has really shown up all party politicians and leaders for what they are; self-serving incompetent IDIOTS
But the UK could possibly be in a worse situation than 2008 in April 2019 purely because they brought it on themselves. Some gamble and no reason to expect any benefit.
Absolutely.
Yeah exactly.
Yeah it's not a good situation. We have three young apprentices. All bright-eyed keen to make a career in engineering. I remember starting out just like them. It breaks my heart to think what may lie down the road for them. Nobody gave those lads or any of our youngsters a thought. I was in the local pub the evening after the result. The news was running footage of another pub somewhere just after the result broke. They had this 75 year-old bloke with a baseball cap on actually crying his eyes out blubbering "I got my country back." Most of the people in the pub I was in were students from the University and I will never forget their faces as they watched this tosser.
We have royally fecked our youth and it makes me feel ashamed.
Do you think these people were aware that Brexit may negatively affect the lives of others? were they ignorant to this?
If they were ignorant to the potential harm then sure they couldn't help themselves but if they knew how can you defend them?
"My lives shit already so i don't care what happens to you" is not an attitude you'd tolerate in any other situation
But this has nothing to do with being better than today, this has nothing to do with making struggling people lives better than they have been before Brexit. Surely you can see the issue, you are not talking about things being better in the UK for british people but things being worse outside of it.
You talked about a failure of imagination but there is nothing imaginative about imagining the worst. Things could be worse for everyone for a lot of reasons what people are arguing is about how things could be better than today for people that are struggling today.
Anybody else getting their Brexit news from memes rather than face the horrors of reality?
Anybody else getting their Brexit news from memes rather than face the horrors of reality?
Definitely. There was even a buzzfeed article about that page
Definitely. There was even a buzzfeed article about that page
It's the only content I trust these days
Its democracy. Everyone gets a vote, that doesnt come with strings attached in terms of how you are meant to use that vote, what factors you are meant to consider, how much knowledge you are meant to have. There is no altruism or intelligence test.
You could have a reasonable debate as to whether there should be. Maybe social media has broken democracy and it needs to be reformed, that is an interesting discussion. Ive been reading about how the whole concept of free will has been called into question by how much power people now have to influence opinions with targetted advertising etc. If free will doesnt exist anymore, or is easily manipulated, the whole concept of liberalism and liberal democracy starts to break down.
If it was only a minority saying "My life's shit already so i don't care what happens to you" it wouldnt matter because they would be outvoted. But apparently a lot of people felt that way.
As I said, I blame the people who put this to the vote, not the voters. The majority of MPs knew this was a bad idea, both in terms of the complexity of the question being asked and the damage that the wrong answer would cause.
Anybody else getting their Brexit news from memes rather than face the horrors of reality?
This is my favourite so far.
To be fair, you're being devil's advocate with an argument that isn't even strong enough to convince yourself, never mind other people.
It's a fair point that calling poor/desperate people "idiots" is unkind but feelings are running strong here, so you can expect a few insults to be thrown back and forth. When the ring-leaders of the Leave campaign are so obviously mendacious and/or stupid it's hard not to tar the people who voted for them with the same brush.
No.10 has already distanced itself from Hunts comment. You could be right about testing the water, but it seems far too sensible.
OK. Leave the EU, financial crisis ensues creating huge surge in unemployment, government responds by implementing countrywide Universal Basic Income.
Does remaining within the EU put up any barriers to a government implementing UBI?
Genuine (and important) question, as I'm starting to think UBI is the only way we fend of the inequality apocalypse.
The argument is too nuanced to have satisfactorily on here I think. I would love to have this conversation with a few of the people in this thread in person, over a pint.
There is an element of Devil's Advocate here, for sure - and it is definitely exhausting having to represent a point of view I dont actually hold myself. But I am not playing DA with the underlying point - that Leavers are not by definition stupid. I am not arguing that it is mean to say it, I am arguing that it is actually not true.
Kind of fits in with the general absurdity of the times -
https://www.theguardian.com/politic...-flying-to-brussels-in-spitfire-bbc-clarifies
https://www.theguardian.com/politic...-flying-to-brussels-in-spitfire-bbc-clarifies
We are working on it in France. So, no remaining in the EU isn't a barrier. Finland are testing it too.
I dont know. I dont think so. But maybe a crisis is needed to force the issue.
Presumably a transition to UBI would be simpler with more control at the borders too.
If anyone is interested, here’s the GFA
https://peacemaker.un.org/uk-ireland-good-friday98
I may have missed it but it doesn’t actually refer to a physical border, just talks about the need for British security installations to be removed and removal of British troops
It kinda relies on the integrity of the politicians..
https://peacemaker.un.org/uk-ireland-good-friday98
I may have missed it but it doesn’t actually refer to a physical border, just talks about the need for British security installations to be removed and removal of British troops
It kinda relies on the integrity of the politicians..
This has been talked of on the BBC today. Many would obviously have known it before, but it's amazing how late in the day it's come into public prominence.
Anyhow, what do you think of this, Ireland and Britain create a joint border force working to the instructions of a joint committee made up from Ireland, Britain and the EU, with the overall commander of the force and the majority, if not all, of it's staff Irish, as a gesture of goodwill from the Brits.
Could the Republicans live with a border if it were Irish police manning it? Would the Loyalists accept that as a border as at least better than one in the Irish sea? I get it would still be disruptive to travel, but if the alternative is a hard border then that would be even more disruptive.