Brexited | the worst threads live the longest

Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?

  • Total voters
    194
  • Poll closed .
LuisNaniencia said:


Wonder why he achieved zilch in 2 years. Clown.
Click to expand...


This is the hopium the government are operating with due to the agreed withdrawal agreement being so abysmal it will never pass. I do not believe the EU will ever reopen the agreement to make the legally binding changes that are required for it to get through.

Essentially they don't have a choice but to believe the EU will agree to change it though as the alternatives are no deal, or no Brexit, and Corbyn probably sauntering in to number 10 shortly afterwards.

May is trying to bribe Labour MPs it seems to drum up some extra support. I wonder if she might get something non legally binding again, not in the agreement text and try to force that through with her original deal as a last desperate attempt.
 
afrocentricity said:
You've got a fair point there. When people are taking about how the EU will do this or do that, do they ever specify who they are taking about? You have the individual countries, them you have the EU government. They are all different entities with their own needs, agendas, problems...
Click to expand...

Quite.

Furthermore the EU27 have no need to stockpile food or medicines because the frictionless borders with all other member states will remain open. Without a deal there will be no frictionless border between the UK and any other country.
 
MikeUpNorth said:
What I was wondering today was, if the UK leaves with no deal, does that put Ireland on a collision course with Brussels? Presumably Brussels would insist they implement customs and immigration controls as required by EU law, and the Irish government would be under huge domestic pressure to avoid a visible border?
Click to expand...
That would be out of our control though, this isn't.
IMO Irish politicians are thinking if there is a hard Brexit then it will trigger a border poll and they can then let the public decide what's next.
 
MikeUpNorth said:
What I was wondering today was, if the UK leaves with no deal, does that put Ireland on a collision course with Brussels? Presumably Brussels would insist they implement customs and immigration controls as required by EU law, and the Irish government would be under huge domestic pressure to avoid a visible border?
Click to expand...

It's not EU laws that requires it but WTO rules.
 
Jippy said:
I forget. What is the beef with the border in the sea rather than physically on land.
Click to expand...

Because it would place NI outside of the rest of the UK which would not be tolerated by Parliament.
 
Paul the Wolf said:
I would love to have a debate with JRM, Farage and Davis, completely wipe out all their arguments so easily.
Click to expand...

Having read a lot of your posts on this subject I am confident that you would do exactly that.
Would make a brilliant Question Time.

I can just picture Farage with his mouth moving but no words coming out...
 
Buster15 said:
Having read a lot of your posts on this subject I am confident that you would do exactly that.
Would make a brilliant Question Time.

I can just picture Farage with his mouth moving but no words coming out...
Click to expand...

On the condition that they were forced to answer the questions. A lie detector connected to each of them would be an added bonus.
 
golden_blunder said:
If brexit has shown anything it’s that England doesn’t really give a shit about the union, it’s England first. So why shouldn’t the scots get another ref?
Click to expand...

No objections on my part (in fact they should escape the madhouse if they can), I am just thinking it through from the point of view of the government in Westminster.
 
golden_blunder said:
If brexit has shown anything it’s that England doesn’t really give a shit about the union, it’s England first. So why shouldn’t the scots get another ref?
Click to expand...

Bit harsh.
Why would English people not put their country first.
Personally, I gave no thought to Wales or Scotland or N Ireland when I voted and I am pretty sure that they voted thinking of themselves first.

Did Scots not do the same in their own referendum.
 
Buster15 said:
Bit harsh.
Why would English people not put their country first.
Personally, I gave no thought to Wales or Scotland or N Ireland when I voted and I am pretty sure that they voted thinking of themselves first.

Did Scots not do the same in their own referendum.
Click to expand...

Better_Together_cover_image.jpg
 
JPRouve said:
It's not EU laws that requires it but WTO rules.
Click to expand...
There's a lot of nuance there actually: https://tradebetablog.wordpress.com...o-require-countries-to-control-their-borders/

Where Ireland would come up against EU rules if it tried to avoid a border is the new Union Customs Code (UCC), which governs the customs regulations and implementation by EU member states. This requires member states to apply a number of precise border controls, data collection and centralised data sharing to certify imports as qualifying for the 'free circulation of goods', among a bazillion other things.

RedCafe, come for the football, stay for the international customs law discussion.
 
MikeUpNorth said:
There's a lot of nuance there actually: https://tradebetablog.wordpress.com...o-require-countries-to-control-their-borders/

Where Ireland would come up against EU rules if it tried to avoid a border is the new Union Customs Code (UCC), which governs the customs regulations and implementation by EU member states. This requires member states to apply a number of precise border controls, data collection and centralised data sharing to certify imports as qualifying for the 'free circulation of goods', among a bazillion other things.

RedCafe, come for the football, stay for the international customs law discussion.
Click to expand...
So it isn't just a case of two different regulatory requirements so there has to be a border?
 
MikeUpNorth said:
There's a lot of nuance there actually: https://tradebetablog.wordpress.com...o-require-countries-to-control-their-borders/

Where Ireland would come up against EU rules if it tried to avoid a border is the new Union Customs Code (UCC), which governs the customs regulations and implementation by EU member states. This requires member states to apply a number of precise border controls, data collection and centralised data sharing to certify imports as qualifying for the 'free circulation of goods', among a bazillion other things.

RedCafe, come for the football, stay for the international customs law discussion.
Click to expand...

There are no nuances, without an agreement and without customs control both the EU and the UK are open to every other markets under the most-favoured nation rule. It's not even a debate to make.
 
JPRouve said:
There are no nuances, without an agreement and without customs control both the EU and the UK are open to every other markets under the most-favoured nation rule. It's not even a debate to make.
Click to expand...
You misunderstand me. The EU would not have to wait for some lengthy two year MFN disputes process at the WTO to compel Ireland to enforce its external EU border like you implied. The EU has its own customs regulations (the UCC) which it would enforce.
 
MikeUpNorth said:
You misunderstand me. The EU would not have to go through some lengthy two year MFN disputes process at the WTO to compel Ireland to enforce its external EU border like you implied. The EU has its own customs regulations (the UCC) which it would enforce.
Click to expand...

I didn't imply anything.
 
MikeUpNorth said:
What I was wondering today was, if the UK leaves with no deal, does that put Ireland on a collision course with Brussels? Presumably Brussels would insist they implement customs and immigration controls as required by EU law, and the Irish government would be under huge domestic pressure to avoid a visible border?
Click to expand...

JPRouve said:
It's not EU laws that requires it but WTO rules.
Click to expand...

...

JPRouve said:
I didn't imply anything.
Click to expand...

What were you trying to say about WTO and Ireland then? It is EU law that explicitly requires the enforcement of an external border (in very specific ways), and WTO rules in a very loose implicit kind of way.
 
Stanley Road said:
Any remainers moved to europe since 2016?
Click to expand...
Not to Europe but my wife is Canadian. She'd love to move back but never seriously mentioned it until after the Brexit vote. Even then I wasn't that keen on a move until the past few months. I'm seriously thinking about it now.
 
LuisNaniencia said:


Wonder why he achieved zilch in 2 years. Clown.
Click to expand...

Does anybody honestly believe the EU have more to lose than the UK? It's that kind of thinking that has got us into this position in the first place. If I didn't live in the UK id love for the EU to prove him, and those like him, completely wrong.
 
Stanley Road said:
Any remainers moved to europe since 2016?
Click to expand...

I know a few people who have moved permanently and got French citizenship since 2016 as a direct result of the vote. They used to split their time between London and France. And we are getting Irish passports for my wife and son. I don't qualify :(
 
unchanged_lineup said:
Absolutely. He knows well that thousands have left too.

Edit: it's actually estimated to be closer to 300,000. So count me as one of THEM.
Click to expand...
The question that should be asked is not how many affluent, sensible people will the country be losing but how many people, that had previously left to live in Europe are now going to be forced to return.
 
MikeUpNorth said:
...



What were you trying to say about WTO and Ireland then? It is EU law that explicitly requires the enforcement of an external border (in very specific ways), and WTO rules in a very loose implicit kind of way.
Click to expand...

That these rules aren't an issue here. Within the UCC, a country that doesn't enforce properly the rules would simply allow the usage of temporary internal borders by the other member states. In the case of Ireland it would be relatively easy since it's an island everything that goes to the continent transit through airports and ports where custom offices are situated. The issue would only be with transit north/south which isn't an issue for the rest of the EU outside of MFN and trade discrimination.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.