Looking unlikely that a meaningful vote will take place tomorrow.
Brexited | the worst threads live the longest
- Thread starter Silva
- Start date
-
In the latest episode of the United Hour Podcast, Nik (@Rood) is joined by CEO Duncan Drasdo and Financial Director Andy Green from the Manchester United Supporters Trust for a special episode on all things behind the scenes at Old Trafford including a brief history of MUST and their aims today, views on INEOS and Sir Jim Ratcliffe so far, and the Old Trafford regeneration.
Why not we've been doing nothing for the last two years or so, a few weeks more won't make any difference...will it?
Absolute disgrace that this has been allowed to drag on.
Nothing has changed since November.
Sleepwalking off a cliff to....
Sleepwalking off a cliff to....
If she postpones the vote, surely Corbyn has to try another no confidence vote
You would think so
I think there is a good chance that she will throw the towel in this week.
What a shambles.... What exactly would she have achieved?
A shitshow so large you can see it from space?
Poisoned chalice. Always was.
Trouble is, who or what comes after.
They should pull the plug on the whole sorry affair.
Th opinion piece that you posted yesterday was interesting. I feel that people under appreciate the fact that individually EU countries aren't that interesting for other nations, it's the block as a whole that makes each countries particularly interesting, we also can't expect to see everyone run for deals when we have nothing special to sell. I say "we" because it's not limited to the UK, this type of mentality exist in all EU countries where a part of the political sphere try to create the illusion that relatively small markets are the envy of all.
And all self inflicted I am afraid.
Absolutely non of this was necessary. It was just down to pitifully weak leadership from the fool Cameron who was afraid of the threat from UKIP.
I think it was as much to sort the split in his own Conservative party as it was the threat from UKIP. He expected to win the referendum and kill two birds with one stone as it were. The tosser.
Well being PM does mean that you're remembered in the history books for ever, after even big events just become half forgotten historical footnotes. I can see the attraction of that, even if you do go down as 'PM who was generally a bit shit'. In May's case she'll also be '2nd female PM' which is historically noteworthy.
Also if you've directly taken over from David Cameron you might think historians looking back at this time will direct most of their opprobrium at him.
Downing Street saying vote will go ahead but I won't believe it until I see it.
This is one part of the Leave mentality that I have never quite understood.
The EU is a massive market with massive negotiating clout. Why would you voluntarily leave that and then go on the world stage to negotiate new trade deals with a fraction of the market size, and therefore a fraction of the clout?
So the order of the week is:
Vote on the deal which will not be and has not changed - government loses
Vote on no deal - whatever happens is meaningless.
Vote on extending A50 - also totally meaningless unless a complete change of direction. EU have to agree and will only do so if there is a genuine change of direction.
Vote on the deal which will not be and has not changed - government loses
Vote on no deal - whatever happens is meaningless.
Vote on extending A50 - also totally meaningless unless a complete change of direction. EU have to agree and will only do so if there is a genuine change of direction.
because immigrants.
The way I see it there are three beliefs among eurosceptics that lead to that idea:
- The EU is made of incompetent bureaucrats.
- The EU isn't the member states and works against them.
- We are the bestest and everyone wants to be us or with us, with "we" being whichever country the politician or eurosceptic is from.
If she tries to postpone again, then it’s put up or shut up for the remain wing of the Tory party.
An inherent sense of British exceptionalism from the political classes perhaps?
The EU might extend to allow for a binding second referendum, not that I'm putting that forward as the most likely route map.
i think mays plan is this...
vote on deal - rejected
vote on no deal - rejected
vote on extending A50 - passed by parliament
Eu will only approve if as you say there is a purpose (eg referendum) and may well insist on more than 3 months
Therefore she goes back for another meaningful vote saying if they accept the EU's terms then the EU are blocking brexit etc... and possibly just possibly gets her deal through as the ERG come back on board thinking brexit is better than a delay...
plus she gets the deal through then walks away claiming victory and the ERG install Mogg or Davies as the PM ready to make the trade deal at the end of the transition canada type or WTO
I actually think shes got around 25%-33% chance of getting the deal through this way - its still a bit of a long shot but its her only credible path to being able to claim a victory and walk away which as with all political operatives i suspect is important to her
Yes but neither of the major parties seem that interested.
Secondly, if there was one, if the result was Remain then Brexit is cancelled. If Leave won again we're back to where we are now.
Agree about the lack of interest but it's still possible, yes one option would have to be withdrawal of article 50, and then Leave with the deal, or Leave without a deal, or a choice of all three, but binding. There will obviously be difference of opinion on the choices given, but parliament could vote for that.
If there is a referendum then it would have to be more than 3 months and thus the UK would have to take part in the elections. That's why I don't think either party want a referendum. It would take them months just to agree on the wording.
At some point in time the UK does step off the edge and someone in the Uk government will have to negotiate a trade deal during the coming years but a trade deal does not avoid the cliff edge even with the transition , it's only the backstop that stops it.
Yes, all those highly-skilled European dentists for example, who've filled the massive gap left by British ones who no longer want to offer NHS services.
Hey-ho.
Let's not forget, the reason we are here is May's bullshit redlines .
Might be a vote of no confidence again as well if gov loses the vote.
Not entirely predictable what will happen.
My hope is that if the EU refuses an extension the Government (or national one if it collapses first) calls vote to revoke article 50, then probable Tory leadership election and a GE.
At this present time the EU would probably refuse an extension as there is no sign that the UK are going in a different direction.
Difficult to predict what will happen but time is slipping away fast and nothing is really happening and the most likely, unless something drastic happens this week, is that the UK slips out by the back door almost by accident.
You're picking the wrong target Penna. It's generally accepted quotas will be given for those with desirable qualifications or wealth, the question is how will farmers manage without immigrant pickers, or the hospitality businesses, or care homes, it's the low-paid you need to worry about. There's also a lot of moral questions to be answered and how you want the country to be and what opportunities there should be for our own citizens, but I wouldn't worry about dentists and doctors, if they're needed they'll come. If they still want to, of course.
If May's deal goes down then she will have the vote on 'No deal' and that will also be rejected. The extend A50 vote will most likely be upheld. This means that the 2 pillars of May's raison d'etre namely the WA and Leave on the 29th are pretty much impossible. She would have to resign.
Extending A50 would require a significant event for the 27 to approve it. If it's a GE what would then go into the respective parties manifestos regarding what they would do about Brexit? This is a real conundrum because both main parties are so split. If it's a 2nd referendum what would the questions be?
Then there's the timing. It's difficult to see how a GE or 2nd Ref could be done in 3 months. So we'd have to increase the extension period and contest the European elections.
In any case I can't see a GE or a 2nd Ref resolving anything.
Extending A50 would require a significant event for the 27 to approve it. If it's a GE what would then go into the respective parties manifestos regarding what they would do about Brexit? This is a real conundrum because both main parties are so split. If it's a 2nd referendum what would the questions be?
Then there's the timing. It's difficult to see how a GE or 2nd Ref could be done in 3 months. So we'd have to increase the extension period and contest the European elections.
In any case I can't see a GE or a 2nd Ref resolving anything.
And what does 'syncing' even mean?
i think the electoral commission said 26 weeks minimum for a referendum - and that was based on there not being any legal challenge to the format of the question - which frankly given the debates about that already I think would be inevitable.
As for a GE I think the last snap election was about 8 weeks after it was called - so in theory there is time for a GE - but not enough time after for any re-negotiation or legislation to implement any plan
in short an extension to the end of the year would seem as a minimum required to actually do anything...
will be interesting to see what happens if they apply for 3 months - the EU may say no and it has to be longer - but if they don't I would guess that the deadline for entering candidates for the Eu election would be in that extension window and I wonder if all the parties would still enter people in case (ok in probability) that there is another extension and EU elections are held... equally if we dont hold EU elections but have an extension then I wonder if there are legal implicatins about representation etc?
Certainly wouldnt fancy from the EU point of view a bunch of UKIP MP's being elected hell bent on causing a kerfuffle and ranting on about bongo bongo land etc
I will be honest in this context, I don't really know.
The British nation psyche is built around the idea of being small but powerful. We never had huge armies compared to our enemies but they often punched above their weight. We’re a small island but we colonized a huge empire. The inherent sense is that despite being small we always have large worth. That’s the fiction that is about to run into the cold hard wall of modern reality.
Might be that the UK had to leave NI behind in return?