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Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?

  • Total voters
    194
  • Poll closed .
Penna said:
Revoke Article 50 has to be the priority now. It can always be triggered again later, there's nothing to stop the Government doing that as far as I know.
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If it's triggered again in a short time, it's unlikely the EU will negotiate again. Even the current Withdrawal Agreement might be off the table in that case.

The only scenario where I can see the EU being willing to negotiate with the UK again is if there is a new government, one that triggers Article 50 with a clear plan that involves much softer red lines than May's (for example, the four freedoms would remain in place).
 
Tusk says EU will agree to short extension subject to positive commons vote, May is supposedly making an address to the nation. Therefore, May will say something like she will step down in order for the motion to get through the commons or something similar.
 
Pexbo said:
If we are not crashing out with no deal and we are not getting an extension then the only option left is to revoke it and then figure out the conditions of if and how it gets invoked again.
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Penna said:
Revoke Article 50 has to be the priority now. It can always be triggered again later, there's nothing to stop the Government doing that as far as I know.
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EU wont appreciate revoking and invoking, it leads to more uncertainty. I know that they would begrudgingly have to accept it legally, but whatever deal they offer after that would still be worse and hence rinse and repeat.
 
Siorac said:
That leaves No Deal. If we take your confidence motion scenario: by the time a new government is voted in, no deal Brexit will have happened.
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A new government can happen within a day with the FTP act. Don't need a GE if a simple majority of MPs (from any Party) agrees to form a new government within 14 days of the Gov losing a confidence vote.

Seems a lot of confusion.

May's deal can't even be put to a vote before the new session in September, without "substantial changes".

An extension could be agreed, if the UK agrees to a 2nd referendum (or something else all EU27 agree). I believe that is what Macron (and others) will demand.

Withdrawing article 50 is possible.

Nothing happening, and WTO / no deal is possible.
 
Pexbo said:
When you bash out all the details and negotiate in good faith you realise that a good deal for everyone is what EU Membershio looks like.
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And you had the best possible deal even within that. Rebate, middle-of-the-road contribution per capita, no Schengen or Euro, more opt-outs than anyone else...

Now that I come to think of it, I understand why the WA feels like punishment compared to that. But it's self-inflicted.
 
Klopper76 said:
An extension is only possible if May's deal gets through parliament according to Tusk.

It won't so no extension is possible.

We're screwed.
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Labour now with a big decision to make - support May's deal or we're crashing off the cliff edge next week.
 
Penna said:
Revoke Article 50 has to be the priority now. It can always be triggered again later, there's nothing to stop the Government doing that as far as I know.
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Yeah , nothing could stop the government from fully transforming the UK into an untrustworthy international partner.
 
Siorac said:
This is incredibly disingenuous, and not for the first time in this thread. Both your reasons basically put the blame squarely on the EU for a "good deal" being impossible. A good deal is mostly impossible because of the UK's red lines in the negotiations. That's it. There is no penalty. The UK is not being penalised by the Withdrawal Agreement: it aims to make sure the UK respects the Good Friday Agreement, a binding international treaty.
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No its not, I've put the blame on our own politicians, for pretending to the UK public that it could ask the EU for something it cannot give, even if it wanted to, which I maintain is debateable. There was no possibility, spelled out by the EU, of discussing the Trade element of 'a deal' before the WA was signed and sealed, why, because under A50 we would still be members of the EU. This stance, by the EU, was not negotiable and the phrase "nothing's agreed until every things agreed" appeared for the first time... seems to have disappeared now?

You seem to be reading my text in your own image and likeness, are you a politician by any chance?
 
I'm guessing the statement will be her spinning her record and also begging people to pressure their MP into supporting her deal.

I think from Tusks statement he expects it to fail and a new direction arranged with haste next week. Although why we're waiting til next week feck knows, it'll fail as it should and we move onto indicative votes, put ref and soft Brexit to the house.
 
Mb194dc said:
May's options are pretty limited by my thinking.

I don't think she'd even have the votes for a GE or a referendum. Genuinely think if May tried a GE without any good cause, enough Tory MPs would rebel and wouldn't get the 2/3 majority required. Corbyn can look like the saviour in that scenario as well. Refuse a GE, until Brexit is dealt with and brand May an irresponsible lunatic.

If she tries to go no deal, Corbyn will call a confidence motion and the government will certainly collapse. New "temporary" government will be able to be voted in within 14 days per FTP act, can then deal with Brexit. Just needs a majority of MPs from any party.

The deal can't be voted before September in new parliament session, unless "substantial changes" which May can't get.

Can't be an extension without a referendum or similar as Macron will veto it.

So what does that leave?
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she calls no deal and there is a confidence motion... who exactly passes any laws and agrees anything with the EU in the next 9 days... certainly not the new government which is 14 days away...by which time no deal has happened
 
She offers to resign after getting her deal through next week as a suitable change to let it be voted on again?
 
Maticmaker said:
No its not, I've put the blame on our own politicians, for pretending to the UK public that it could ask the EU for something it cannot give, even if it wanted to, which I maintain is debateable. There was no possibility, spelled out by the EU, of discussing the Trade element of 'a deal' before the WA was signed and sealed, why, because under A50 we would still be members of the EU. This stance, by the EU, was not negotiable and the phrase "nothing's agreed until every things agreed" appeared for the first time... seems to have disappeared now?

You seem to be reading my text in your own image and likeness, are you a politician by any chance?
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Yes, the EU would not discuss a trade deal until the UK actually left the EU. A "good deal" is still possible, you just need to leave first. Hence the withdrawal agreement, where the EU accommodated pretty much every British request during the negotiations.

Now address the part about the "penalty".
 
So the EU are saying it HAS to be leave :lol:

Crash out with no deal or agree the deal on offer and leave in 50 days. But feck off either way!

Pathetic reaction … the first opportunity the EU have had to play a pro-active part in this and they've shown their hand immediately.

All that crap about "We're stronger together" … "We'll fight to keep you until the end" goes out the fecking window when they get a whiff of the cash available to be divvied up!.

This weekend will be most embarrassing for Macron! While his countrymen are burning down Paris restaurants, chic coffee capsule vendors and fashion houses in their breakdown jackets. Good European people will be peacefully marching in huge numbers in London to show Europe what they are turning their backs on … it will be epic! And if there is even a hint of violence it will be orchestrated by the other side and be mis-reported and blown out of all proportion in the usual rags come Sunday morning.

£900bn in jobs, infrastructure and assets removed from the British finance sector to date … was always going to go this way!
 
Smores said:
I'm guessing the statement will be her spinning her record and also begging people to pressure there MP into supporting her deal.

I think from Tusks statement he expects it to fail and a new direction arranged with haste next week. Although why we're waiting til next week feck knows.
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Because we’ve spent two fecking years grandstanding like the EU should be glad to fecking have us. After all this is over, regardless of the outcome, there should be a serious inquiry into what happened during these two years for it to get to a week before the deadline for everyone to realize they actually need to do a bit of work now. It’s not a university essay, it’s the lives of millions of people and our country’s future generations.

If we remain in the EEA, I’m thinking of getting out of here at this point. Don’t feel welcome any more despite being a native Brit.
 
SqueakyWeasel said:
So the EU are saying it HAS to be leave :lol:

Crash out with no deal or agree the deal on offer and leave in 50 days. But feck off either way!

Pathetic reaction … the first opportunity the EU have had to play a pro-active part in this and they've shown their hand immediately.

All that crap about "We're stronger together" … "We'll fight to keep you until the end" goes out the fecking window when they get a whiff of the cash available to be divvied up!.

This weekend will be most embarrassing for Macron! While his countrymen are burning down Paris restaurants, chic coffee capsule vendors and fashion houses in their breakdown jackets. Good European people will be peacefully marching in huge numbers in London to show Europe what they are turning their backs on … it will be epic! And if there is even a hint of violence it will be orchestrated by the other side and be mis-reported and blown out of all proportion in the usual rags come Sunday morning.

£900bn in jobs, infrastructure and assets removed from the British finance sector to date … was always going to go this way!
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The feck are you talking about?

What exactly could the EU have done? Force a referendum on the UK? Or what? Just grant an extension on the basis of... what exactly?
 
SqueakyWeasel said:
So the EU are saying it HAS to be leave :lol:

Crash out with no deal or agree the deal on offer and leave in 50 days. But feck off either way!

Pathetic reaction … the first opportunity the EU have had to play a pro-active part in this and they've shown their hand immediately.

All that crap about "We're stronger together" … "We'll fight to keep you until the end" goes out the fecking window when they get a whiff of the cash available to be divvied up!.

This weekend will be most embarrassing for Macron! While his countrymen are burning down Paris restaurants, chic coffee capsule vendors and fashion houses in their breakdown jackets. Good European people will be peacefully marching in huge numbers in London to show Europe what they are turning their backs on … it will be epic! And if there is even a hint of violence it will be orchestrated by the other side and be mis-reported and blown out of all proportion in the usual rags come Sunday morning.

£900bn in jobs, infrastructure and assets removed from the British finance sector to date … was always going to go this way!
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There is literally always the option of revoking article 50, which is what they have said all along. They even clarified that we would go back to status quo if that were to happen.
 
SqueakyWeasel said:
So the EU are saying it HAS to be leave :lol:

Crash out with no deal or agree the deal on offer and leave in 50 days. But feck off either way!

Pathetic reaction … the first opportunity the EU have had to play a pro-active part in this and they've shown their hand immediately.

All that crap about "We're stronger together" … "We'll fight to keep you until the end" goes out the fecking window when they get a whiff of the cash available to be divvied up!.

This weekend will be most embarrassing for Macron! While his countrymen are burning down Paris restaurants, chic coffee capsule vendors and fashion houses in their breakdown jackets. Good European people will be peacefully marching in huge numbers in London to show Europe what they are turning their backs on … it will be epic! And if there is even a hint of violence it will be orchestrated by the other side and be mis-reported and blown out of all proportion in the usual rags come Sunday morning.

£900bn in jobs, infrastructure and assets removed from the British finance sector to date … was always going to go this way!
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This is the UK's decision to leave.

What seems to be escaping everyone is that there is only one withdrawal agreement. If the UK want to go in a different direction afterwards that's up to them.
 
sun_tzu said:
she calls no deal and there is a confidence motion... who exactly passes any laws and agrees anything with the EU in the next 9 days... certainly not the new government which is 14 days away...by which time no deal has happened
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A new government can be formed on the same day the government is defeated, in the confidence vote. Just needs a majority to pass and have the "confidence of the house". That government takes control immediately.

The window to form a government is 14 days, or there is a GE.
 
Isn't no brexit an option here?

We seem to only be considering no deal or May's deal.
 
VP89 said:
Isn't no brexit an option here?

We seem to only be considering no deal or May's deal.
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People’s will blah blah blah. The current political class refuse to have a spine and do what’s right for the country for the next 20-30 years for fear of ruining their careers for the next 5-10 years.
 
EwanI Ted said:
If they vote against May's deal and we then crash out with no deal as a result, there is no way in hell they'll be able to blame the Tories.
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Although I suspect your right it did work for the tories after the crisis in 2008
 
horsechoker said:
Tusk says EU will agree to short extension subject to positive commons vote, May is supposedly making an address to the nation. Therefore, May will say something like she will step down in order for the motion to get through the commons or something similar.
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The Cat said:
She offers to resign after getting her deal through next week as a suitable change to let it be voted on again?
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I don't see how May stepping down makes the deal any more palatable. If you disagree with the deal, you disagree with the deal, doesn't matter who is in charge. :confused:
 
Siorac said:
Yes, the EU would not discuss a trade deal until the UK actually left the EU. A "good deal" is still possible, you just need to leave first. Hence the withdrawal agreement, where the EU accommodated pretty much every British request during the negotiations.

Now address the part about the "penalty".
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The 'penalty' is that EU wants to ensure there is 'no cake and eat it' scenario that can be seen to be arising for the UK in any 'deal' agreed and hence to send a warning to others who might be tempted to exit that they will not get a better deal outside the EU. It would be incredibly stupid of the EU if they did.

That's why a No deal outcome was always the only option if the UK really does want to leave the EU.
 
EwanI Ted said:
If they vote against May's deal and we then crash out with no deal as a result, there is no way in hell they'll be able to blame the Tories.
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There's a lot to blame the Tories for. She dragged her dead deal on to force it down parliament throats. That shit doesn't get forgotten.
 
I guess the EU patience has run thin at this point
 
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