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Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?


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  • Poll closed .
Massive oversimplification, guys. I haven't read about Canada, but Australia is not a good analogy. It had a healthier economy to start off with and a milder storm to weather.

Australia in 2008 (pre-Crisis) was debt-free and running surplus budgets on the back of the mining boom, so it was in a far better situation than pretty much all western economies. It was at record low unemployment going into it. On top of it, its financial sector had only an indirect exposure to the crisis. Its banks weren't directly involved in the underwriting of large volumes of US mortgage-backed securities, which went bust, unlike US and major European banks. So they didn't need large injections of cash to stay afloat, they simply shrunk. Therefore Aus could use the stimulus packages to help the general economy instead of just propping up banks.

Generally speaking, it's easier to "spend your way into growth" when you start off a healthy base. I don't think for example Greece and Italy who had debts over 100% of GDP and running budget deficits over 5% of GDP, could spend their way out of trouble. No one would lend them for that to start off with.

The point remains that spending stimulates an economy.
 
Guardian said:
Government could ignore indicative Brexit votes, says Liam Fox
International trade secretary says real choice is still between Theresa May’s deal and no deal
 
The point remains that spending stimulates an economy.

I don't quite get the debating point with that statement. Did anyone argue that giving free money does not encourage spending? The post you responded to said:
"Increasing public spending during a recession is a quick way to economic ruin".

The debating point, I thought, was whether spending can destroy or improve an economy in recession. To which the answer is: it can do either, depending on the case.
 


Yes, or they'll just extend again, or pull article 50 etc

It's just more of the same, nothing changed since December. May's deal hasn't changed since its record defeat.

This government really is abysmal in so many ways.
 
May's deal is still the worst option, it hasn't really changed since December and the subsequent record defeat. May needs to go as well and it doesn't make the deal any better.

It looks like there isn't going to be anything better on offer, just even worse versions of the deal or things including the single market and / or the customs union. In which case, what is the point we're in a better situation than that already. Even if we did "leave" to one of these options, you can bet a big movement to fully rejoin would immediately kick off and would succeed pretty quickly.

Voting for an obviously inferior situation just to deliver "Brexit" would be moronic and unsustainable anyway.

The best option is to revoke, leavers should see what they wanted and what won the vote for leave in the 2016 vote isn't on offer, (no one was arguing for no deal in 2016 due to the economic risks) remainers should accept if we revoke it doesn't change the referendum result. Then we start again with a general election and the political parties have to figure out what to do next.

That logic doesn't make sense in terms of brexit, people voted to be in a worse situation.

If leavers are happy to go down the route of a pointless brexit with SM access and the custom union then that's what we should do. However that needs another people's vote to establish given the first one was so vague on terms.
 
Gaurdian said:
Government could ignore reality, says Liam Fox
International trade secretary says real choice is still between kick in the balls and punch in the gob
 
Seems weird to me to use the election in 2017 as a barometer of Corbyn's ability to 'keep the party together' in the near two years since.

Why is it weird, and what else can they use?
Those are still Labour constituencies, and at the next GE he (or whoever the leader is) would want them to remain Labour.
 
I don't quite get the debating point with that statement. Did anyone argue that giving free money does not encourage spending? The post you responded to said:
"Increasing public spending during a recession is a quick way to economic ruin".

The debating point, I thought, was whether spending can destroy or improve an economy in recession. To which the answer is: it can do either, depending on the case.

Which is untrue. Spending during a recession can stimulate the economy rather than ruin it, so it isn't automatically a quick way to economic ruin.

Free money? Huh?

Your final sentence sounds like we agree anyway.
 
I wouldn't exactly say that.

It was a poison chalis of a job from the beginning. She took on the impossible, in fact, whoever took over from Cameron to negotiate Brexit was always going to be under fire from all sides, there are too many factions in parliament, forces pulling in different directions. No one deal from the EU would get through the house right now - it's too fragmented, too many different ideas and far too much party politics.

But the same would be said for whoever had done the negotiating.

...and under the circumstances, I feel sorry for her. On the one hand, she's got the EU telling her it's the only deal in town, and on the other, a parliament with a dozen factions, a divided party and very little public support - and it's literally because everybody has a different idea about what should happen next. It's not just that she can't please everybody, it's literally that she has to piss off everyone just to offer something up to the house.

I think she's done, and I think that's best for her. She's exhausted and despite her fortitude and tenacity, even she knows it's over for her deal. It's time somebody else took up the same poison challis, and probably they'll take us out with no deal.
Do you mean poisoned chalice? If so, I agree, but when everything is said and done, history will not look back on her kindly.
 


Thoughts?


Seems weird to me to use the election in 2017 as a barometer of Corbyn's ability to 'keep the party together' in the near two years since.

Yep, it being dated is one thing. But it's Novara Media. Isn't that where Bastani is publishing from isn't the whole group a pro-Corbyn mouthpiece?

My question would be, what exactly has he done? Because he hasn't done anything really, he avoids taking a stance on pretty much anything which seems to be pissing off everyone at the moment.

As for those lists...

On the one side: Rotherham, Blackpool, Stoke, Dudley, West Bromwich, Walsall
On the other side: Brighton, Cambridge, Bristol, Edinburgh, London boroughs.

That's a poor-rich divide if I ever so one. Which is why everyone is saying that this was a protest vote. Turkeys disillusioned with their prospects, voted for Christmas. Failing to communicate the benefits of the EU and the failures of UK governments is what led us here.
 
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I'm sorry if this seems like a silly question at this stage - but why was the referendum organised for the electorate in the first place? Why wasn't it put to vote in Parliament instead, leaving the responsibility of understanding the nuances involved in such a decision to the elected representatives of the people?

It seems to me that a remain-inclined government is having to negotiate a WA for a leave-inclined electorate, and something like that should never have happened if the principles of democracy were properly followed.
 
I'm sorry if this seems like a silly question at this stage - but why was the referendum organised for the electorate in the first place? Why wasn't it put to vote in Parliament instead, leaving the responsibility of understanding the nuances involved in such a decision to the elected representatives of the people?
Because the monied interests behind all this knew it wouldn't get through Parliament.
 
Why is it weird, and what else can they use?
Those are still Labour constituencies, and at the next GE he (or whoever the leader is) would want them to remain Labour.

Yeah, he's kept the party together if you ignore the eight MPs who felt they had to leave the party in part because of his policy on Brexit...
 
The monied interests being the financiers of Vote Leave and Leave.EU, I presume?
And other newfound allies too, I think...including those who might benefit from signing-off on future trade deals.
 
Imo, the biggest reason Labour haven't completely disintegrated over brexit is the fact they're not in government.

Pretty big hypothetical.

Yeah, he's kept the party together if you ignore the eight MPs who felt they had to leave the party in part because of his policy on Brexit...

MP's who haven't announced any policy of their own either, yet.
 
Never said it's controversial, I merely pointed out that what you think proves that the EU is "a project whose ultimate goal is to destroy sovereign countries" is a very small scale, minor research scheme, which has completely nothing to do with "the ultimate goal of the European project".

Not even that I'm against the "creation of the United States of Europe", but to talk about it as if it indeed was a vocally presented, dominant idea among European leaders is a strong exaggeration too. You won't find that many federalists in the meetings of the European Council, trust me on that.

Exactly, federalists exist but they are not dominant. Most leaders and politicians have absolutely no intention to share their local and national powers.

Indeed, I agree that there are different voices amongst the European political leaders.
 
Bit premature to start crediting Corbyn with keeping the Labour party together isn't it? That remains to be seen....
 
MP's who haven't announced any policy of their own either, yet.

But surely that’s beside the point of how Corbyn is keeping the party together and merely a diversion in answering the questions wrt Corbyn’s leadership.

The Tories started with 317 MPs in 2017, lost 3 who quit since and are down to 314. Meanwhile Labour started with 262 and is down to 245. Lost 17 MPs who either joined TIG or went independent. And Labour aren’t even under the pressure of delivering Brexit like the Tories are.

But most damning of all is that at this time he should be gaining on the Tories in popularity and polls yet the opposite is happening. And apparently he deserves praise for the party not falling apart... yet. I mean how low can expectations get?
 
It would quickly lead to a border poll and will only escalate the one thing the DUP are completely opposed to. Unitedness

Thats a real possibility mate, i still suspect that the DUP wouldn't be averse to a Hard border in Ireland despite what they may say in public.
 
I already have, a good deal' its a mixture of trade /political changes that suit our needs, but it won't happen, because the EU cannot respond on the political bit without shredding its four freedoms.

It was this question at the end of my post I was interested in hearing your thought on mate.

So taking that into consideration why exactly would the British Government have decided from the get go that they weren't even going to try to negotiate an amicable arrangement that would minimize disruption during the transition period right after leaving the EU. And just opt for a course of action that would probably also break or jeopardize an International peace treaty they are sworn to uphold and potentially destabilize an area enjoying its longest period of relative peace in a century?

To condense that further basically i would like to know how you think the UK could have made No Deal the plan from the start when it's pretty much incompatible with the GFA?
 
It was this question at the end of my post I was interested in hearing your thought on mate.

There is no actual answer to that question, you will get vague sentences put together.
 
But surely that’s beside the point of how Corbyn is keeping the party together and merely a diversion in answering the questions wrt Corbyn’s leadership.

The Tories started with 317 MPs in 2017, lost 3 who quit since and are down to 314. Meanwhile Labour started with 262 and is down to 245. Lost 17 MPs who either joined TIG or went independent. And Labour aren’t even under the pressure of delivering Brexit like the Tories are.

But most damning of all is that at this time he should be gaining on the Tories in popularity and polls yet the opposite is happening. And apparently he deserves praise for the party not falling apart... yet. I mean how low can expectations get?

I haven't said anything about him keeping the party together, that was inferred in the tweet, not in any of my posts.
Apart from the 8 MP's who recently left, the other MP's left because they deem him to be too far left, which is neither here nor there considering he's survived 2 leadership contests - and at the time was popular with the majority of labour voters (if that's still true, remains to be seen)

I was simply asking for thoughts on his actions (or inaction) when it comes to his stance on Brexit. i.e as the opposition party leader, any definitive position he takes on Brexit will likely have an impact in future GE's. No matter what happens with Brexit, there are going to be large factions of Pro-EU or Pro-Brexit in Labour & other marginal constituencies, and as things stand it doesn't look like either faction will be satisfied with the end result.
So with all that in mind, what's the best Brexit strategy for a party leader who aspires to be PM?
I don't know the answer, but I thought it would be interesting to see what others thought.
 
Why is it weird, and what else can they use?
Those are still Labour constituencies, and at the next GE he (or whoever the leader is) would want them to remain Labour.

Because it's a classic case of using past performance to indicate future success. All that tells you is that Corbyn pulled it out of the bag in 2017 (well, relatively speaking), it can't tell you that he's currently doing a good job in keeping the party together, or that people who voted Labour (at both ends of the Remain/Leave spectrum) would continue to do so right now. They may do, but it's not a conclusion you can draw from that data.
 
So let's say we leave without a deal on the 12th April. I'm in Paris and flying to Iceland the next day, then fly to Canada a few days later.

Am I going to have problems travelling with my EU passport?