SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

Jazz said:
In the US as well. Everything is so confusing. Don't know what to think.
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In the UK you can look at the ONS stats which are based on death certificates, and so don't have the same issue as the PHE stats, although they take longer to come out. Those show that the PHE stats are a significant under-estimate, so the breathless panic about over-counting is entirely misplaced.
 
lynchie said:
In the UK you can look at the ONS stats which are based on death certificates, and so don't have the same issue as the PHE stats, although they take longer to come out. Those show that the PHE stats are a significant under-estimate, so the breathless panic about over-counting is entirely misplaced.
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Yeah that one is a bit confusing because as you say the current figures are an under estimate, the excess death was at 65k a week ago, so I have an idea about what Hancock is trying to do but he will have a hard time explaining the total amount of deaths.
 
JPRouve said:
Yeah that one is a bit confusing because as you say the current figures are an under estimate, the excess death was at 65k a week ago, so I have an idea about what Hancock is trying to do but he will have a hard time explaining the total amount of deaths.
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It might become a marginal issue in the coming weeks, as the number of deaths of people with historical positive tests begins to exceed the number who died of Covid but without a positive hospital test, but there was no reason, other than arse covering, to stop announcing the number of deaths each day.
 
redshaw said:
UK 40 deaths and 827 cases
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Haven’t been able to find that information on the government website. I thought they had temporarily paused the number of deaths because of the inaccuracies?
Case numbers seem like they have spiked considerably.
 
Did anyone read in the papers about the UK rtc pregnancy style antibody test? Uses a pin prick of your blood.
Is very accurate and can be done at home, takes 20 mins for a result.
Plan is for the govt to give them to everyone to use.
I think the science about antibodies is not yet proven but nobody has caught it twice so I’d be very interested to know if I’d already had it.
 
Regulus Arcturus Black said:
I'd be very sceptical about that, if it can be done in 20 mins, can't see there being any possibility that it is very accurate.
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They already exist, in France you still have to do a PCR test to confirm a positive TROD(those rapid tests) and even when you are negative it's recommended to do a PCR test.
 
The Purley King said:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/20...nging-coronavirus-antibody-test-passes-first/

Plus it’s on Bloomberg, New York Times and various others.
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The only source is the guy leading the consortium after "secret human trials", not yet published? Hmmmm... I'll remain sceptical.

I mean, even these guys are sceptical....

The Department of Health and Social Care, however, wants more proof of the test’s reliability and whether antibodies actually protect a person from getting the infection again, the news outlet reported.
 
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Regulus Arcturus Black said:
The only course is the guy leading the consortium after "secret human trials", not yet published? Hmmmm... I'll remain sceptical.
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Fair stance to take.
I’ve been following UK rtc for months so watch these things closely.
If it is as accurate as is claimed and we all get one, or maybe one every few months that would be amazing.
 
There are already highly
Regulus Arcturus Black said:
I'd be very sceptical about that, if it can be done in 20 mins, can't see there being any possibility that it is very accurate.
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The Purley King said:
It is proven to be highly accurate. 98.6%.
This is much higher than lots of lab based tests.
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There are already highly accurate serology tests available. Made by Abbott and Roche. Anyone who wants/needs one can pay to get it done. A quicker/cheaper/easier one which you get done at home wouldn’t be any kind of major breakthrough. The big problem we have now is that we don’t know if a) testing postive for antibodies means you’re immune or b) if catching covid means you’ll still have antibodies circulating a few weeks later. A new test won’t change this.
 
golden_blunder said:
When I go to my local hospital for blood tests, they have:
Social distancing markers and chairs at those points outside before you even go in the door
At the door, a lady greets you and gives you a mask to wear if you don’t have one. She also takes your temperature
Reception has been cleared out so only 10 people can sit inside the reception area at one time

I can’t believe it when I read other hospitals aren’t even asking you to wear a mask!
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Same here. Had some bloodwork done last week and appointments were staggered in a way where patients didn't see one another.
 
Giggzinho said:
Haven’t been able to find that information on the government website. I thought they had temporarily paused the number of deaths because of the inaccuracies?
Case numbers seem like they have spiked considerably.
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Irwin99 said:
Cases seem to be a bit higher than usual (at this point I mean)
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We had a 800+ case day last week around this time but was followed by many days in 500-600 range. Could be another one off so we'll see again this Tue.

40 death number is from the government dashboard here
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
 
Global deaths top 600,000, although the likely number could be significantly higher.
Just as worrysome are the new cases, where the line on the graph is almost vertical.

Are we at the end of the beginning. Certainly not the beginning of the end.
 
The Purley King said:
Did anyone read in the papers about the UK rtc pregnancy style antibody test? Uses a pin prick of your blood.
Is very accurate and can be done at home, takes 20 mins for a result.
Plan is for the govt to give them to everyone to use.
I think the science about antibodies is not yet proven but nobody has caught it twice so I’d be very interested to know if I’d already had it.
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My Aunt took part in the Covid anti body testing trial.

After she pricked her finger, she accidentally put too much blood onto the small test spot point essentially flooding the testing strip and as a result it came back as positive. The technician then repeated the test, with the correct amount of blood needed and got a negative result.

She said the results where quick, but that it was quite an assumption to think the British public are ready or able to do the test at home correctly.
 
lynchie said:
60,000 excess deaths
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And given that there will have been far fewer deaths from flu, covid deaths will be far higher. That the government have idiotically included a few people who had covid and died from something else later (and the something else could have occurred because of previous illness) in figures is just more bumbling, but it shouldn't distract from the fact that many of the 70,000-100,000 who have dies of covid did so due to the same governmental incompetence.
 
11101 said:
Reinfection is the one area we are still totally in the dark about. Other than a handful of anecdotal stories there has been no proof of reinfection, and we do know antibodies are not the whole story when it comes to immunity. It looks likely its here to stay in one form or another, but far from certain.
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Given that there are only a very few reports of possible reinfection it seem almost certain that some level of immunity is gained at least for those who were significantly symptomatic. The Oxford vaccine trial produced an immune response in 100% of subjects. This suggests (but doesn't prove) that the body does produce anitgens for Covid.

Unless we get global vaccination up to the HIL, which will be in the 60-85% range, possibly on an annual basis then we may never globally eradicate but maybe we will get a new normal where annual vaccinations became more normal. We may even get the lazy feckers who don't get the flu vaccine off their arses and hugely reduce flu deaths as well?
 
cj_sparky said:
My Aunt took part in the Covid anti body testing trial.

After she pricked her finger, she accidentally put too much blood onto the small test spot point essentially flooding the testing strip and as a result it came back as positive. The technician then repeated the test, with the correct amount of blood needed and got a negative result.

She said the results where quick, but that it was quite an assumption to think the British public are ready or able to do the test at home correctly.
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Even home bowel cancer tests aren't that easy to do. You would think shitting on a stick wasn't that hard but a quite high proportion of returned tests have to be done again.
 
Buster15 said:
Global deaths top 600,000, although the likely number could be significantly higher.
Just as worrysome are the new cases, where the line on the graph is almost vertical.

Are we at the end of the beginning. Certainly not the beginning of the end.
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Coronavirus: WHO reports record single-day global increase in cases
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https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-53454558

All things being equal, we're still in the beginning phases of the pandemic. The global situation today is worse than the situation back in February or March. The moment we loosen our grip on the reins, it's going to come back at us harder than it did the first time around, because there are simply more angles from which it can attack.
 
Buster15 said:
Global deaths top 600,000, although the likely number could be significantly higher.
Just as worrysome are the new cases, where the line on the graph is almost vertical.

Are we at the end of the beginning. Certainly not the beginning of the end.
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Europe are probably just about at the end of the beginning. East Asia a little bit further ahead. Most of the rest of the world aren't even anywhere close to that yet. India are probably weeks if not months off even hitting a first peak, let alone worrying about second waves.
 
hobbers said:
Europe are probably just about at the end of the beginning. East Asia a little bit further ahead. Most of the rest of the world aren't even anywhere close to that yet. India are probably weeks if not months off even hitting a first peak, let alone worrying about second waves.
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Agree with you. This is going to be with us and amongst us for some time to come.
And there are indications that the virus may be starting to mutate.
This is perfectly normal in the Flu virus as each year there is a new dominant strain.
 
Interesting background article that mentions the likely unreliability of antibody testing in determining prior exposure to covid, and describes the difficulty of testing for T cell memory as an alternative.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53447899

It's set against the background story of a choir in Bradford who caught a covid/flu like virus in January, and who had wondered if it could have been covid (a family member of one of them had recently returned from Wuhan.)
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52589449
 
How come this is being discussed/done right now? As far as I know wearing masks in enclosed public spaces has been compulsory in Germany (and lots of other countries as well I guess) for three months now.
 
do.ob said:
How come this is being discussed/done right now? As far as I know wearing masks in enclosed public spaces has been compulsory in Germany (and lots of other countries as well I guess) for three months now.
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It's pathetic, quite honestly. The UK government's been so bad with their "use your common sense" and self-policing messages. Now they've decided to actually make something compulsory, no ifs and buts, some people are outraged.
 
I am reading about monoclonal antibodies being a potential treatment. Could someone please explain why a drug would take many years to determine safety, but these antibodies can be authorised for use sooner? And how tough is it to scale this treatment?
 
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