You are making no sense at all.
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
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In the latest episode of the United Hour Podcast, Nik (@Rood) is joined by CEO Duncan Drasdo and Financial Director Andy Green from the Manchester United Supporters Trust for a special episode on all things behind the scenes at Old Trafford including a brief history of MUST and their aims today, views on INEOS and Sir Jim Ratcliffe so far, and the Old Trafford regeneration.
You are making no sense at all.
Jesus h Christ. keep moving the goal posts you are good at it. The lockdowns very clearly worked, they reduced the infection rates significantly. The problem is the follow up systems.
You said this: "What has kept NSW, Western Australia, Taiwan, South Korea, Germany living “normal lives” is widespread testing and track/trace ability, not lockdown."
Which is a brazen lie for Germany. I'm fairly confident it will be a lie for the other countries too, if looked at seriously, but I will only argue for Germany.
Looks like 'shielding' measures could be reintroduced in the UK - possibly beginning with hotspot areas.
Unlike before, advice will be more tailored according to the individual rather than a blanket rule.
Unlike before, advice will be more tailored according to the individual rather than a blanket rule.
Me and my wife were literally the only people in our carriage wearing masks on the way to Manchester yesterday. The night before I'd been impressed by the number of people on an 11pm train from Manchester wearing them (maybe 2 out of 30 not doing), including small groups of 18-25 year olds who'd been out for drinks. Almost all the people without masks yesterday were 50 or older.
The difference of opinion here @Stack is that you believe a lockdown with all those harsh side-effects is a success if it brings cases down, no matter what follows.
I think that a lockdown with all those negative side effects that only kicks the can down the road for two months is a complete failure.
Opinions.
They didn't say that though, did they?
Anyway, kicking the can down the road is a decent strategy as any we have, and it allows for more and better developments in treatment to come in when we arrive at the can. We already have better treatment available now than we did in March, and the lockdown bought us the time to find them.
It’s not accurate to say Victoria has been in lockdown since March. I was visiting friends across the state and having beers in the CBD while my UK friends were still under lockdown. I remember family in the UK being jealous of how much freedom we had to do things in Melbourne. We’ve had two lockdowns with a period of virus-free freedom in between them.
It has been an extremely restrictive second lockdown, there is no need to exaggerate it to make your point. It’s been shit, but the majority of Victorians still support it. Although I expect we are reaching the limits of what we can take.
I agree with you that test, trace, isolate is the way to keep it under control. But if the virus is growing exponentially then a lockdown will stop it and bring it back into a manageable position. Perhaps you can do that without a lockdown, but it’s going to kill a lot of people and there is a big risk it grows beyond your ability to manage it.
For Australia, as a result of the sacrifices made by Victorians we might end up having a relatively normal summer, while Europe may go into a second wave. I really hope this doesn’t happen as my family are in the UK, but testing seems to have already broken down there and it hasn’t even taken off fully yet.
Or, you’ll end up in the same position in December with an outbreak. No-one knows, your first lockdown didn’t prevent it and so there is no guarantee the second one will either.
But the countries with the best track and trace will likely be those that do best.
Yes.
Unless we are arguing against lockdowns helping to get cases low, that’d be a pretty daft argument as the debate regarding lockdowns has never been whether or not they can help minimise spread, it has always been a much more nuanced argument than that when talking about them “working”.
Apologies if anyone here wasted their time thinking I was making a stupid argument that locking people in their homes won’t get cases down, we knew that before the pandemic.
There are two stages to living with this virus. 1. Get cases down. 2. Track and trace to keep cases down. The more successful stage 1, the easier it is to implement stage 2 (UK being a good example of what happens when numbers never got low enough in the first place)
In countries with significant outbreaks strict lockdown was the quickest way to get cases down, which helped save lives in the short term. Obviously, it’s getting stage 2 right that is the key to long term success but to describe stage 1 as “kicking the can down the road” is spectacularly missing the point.
Yeah that is a possibility. The extension of this lockdown was based on modelling that suggested numbers needed to be reduced further to prevent that scenario. I am glad they are using evidence based decision making, although I wish they were more transparent with their model, as some academic epidemiologists have questioned it as being too pessimistic.
Australia does have good testing infrastructure. The hotel quarantine failed last time, hopefully that has been addressed. Contact tracing stands a better chance with low case numbers than high numbers. My friend is a nurse seconded to contact tracing in Melbourne. She said during the peak (700-cases/day) they were so pressured for time they could only go back 2 days per person. Whereas now they are able to go back 2 weeks. Anecdotal obviously, but does not fill me with faith that our contact tracing system can cope with large numbers.
So yes, in an ideal world you would be able to rely on mask wearing, social distancing, not going to work when sick, test, trace, and isolate to bring numbers down. But that is a lot more likely to work if you have the virus under control to begin with and lockdowns are a tool to do that. This is what is currently happening (minus compulsory masks) in New South Wales.
I don't know if it's been mentioned in this long thread yet so forgive me if I'm repeating a point already discussed, but those in favour of harsh lockdowns, have you considered the side effects of this? For eg, a work colleague told me of her two daughters (both under 10 years old), who went into what can only be described as major depression. She started getting them to heal a bit by contacting the parents of their closest friends to create a little bubble just to give them the chance to have some sort of normalcy. I was horrified to hear about this and I'm sure other children are suffering. This is just one example of the toll this is taking. Hard enough for some adults, but children suffering like this is hard to take.
Then there are folks who can't make a living now and have families to feed. It's a difficult balance but some common sense needs to be applied when making these harsh decisions.
My personal motto has always been you need to have a balance. Things are never black and white.
Yes the virus is worrying, but also some of the decisions seem to me to be causing even more damage. It makes me very sad.
Then there are folks who can't make a living now and have families to feed. It's a difficult balance but some common sense needs to be applied when making these harsh decisions.
My personal motto has always been you need to have a balance. Things are never black and white.
Yes the virus is worrying, but also some of the decisions seem to me to be causing even more damage. It makes me very sad.
Yeah and I think this is what RAB was getting at. Lockdowns do have negative effects on mental health, people’s livelihoods, children. There’s no easy decisions. Some people will argue the death toll and potential long-term Covid related health problems from not locking down are worth it because they are not as bad as these effects. I don’t agree.
I can’t really comment on the economics of it, from what I’ve seen economists argue both sides.
We will eventually find out if it was all worth it or not.
That has worked so well in the UK and the US I don't think.
The death rate in Sweden per head of population, a country allegedly doing well, is 17x higher than Australia despite the recent outbreak, and NZ are doing far better than AU.
I'd hate to see what constituted doing badly in your opinion.
Korea are about to go into further lockdowns fyi.
My father in law is 80 and has got alzheimer`s , he hasn`t been anywhere since march as he can`t socially distance , he just forgets and he is a really sociable guy that likes chatting with people. You can`t take him to a shop, cafe or pub , you can`t take him for a walk on the beach or anywhere really as it has been busy with tourists and there are people everywhere . If you take him out you find yourself having to remind him every five mins to come away from people and he starts to get ratty then .
Luckily they have a big garden so we have been ok so far with the good weather , things will become much tougher now though. You just have to get on with it and find a balance without totally isolating if possible. It is also tough for my mother in law as she is isolated with him . These are the people desperately in need of a vaccine .The rest of us still have our freedom of movement as long as we are sensible with it which unfortunately isn`t always the case.
Yes.
Lockdowns suck and blow. They aren't consequence free. But the alternative outcomes are even worse. The avoidable death of beloved grandparents aren't good for mental health for example.
It is heart breaking. I don't know about the number of deaths to be honest because it seems we get conflicting information and it's doing my head in. I don't know what, or who, to believe. The percentages seem low, and also there isn't any discussion on the recovery rates. The people testing positive, are they very ill? Or what? I wish they would give an overall report instead of only one aspect.
What I do know is that the effect is screwing a lot of people, and I have no idea what we're going to do about this.
Yes, we need to have things in place to be as safe as possible, but let's not get overzealous, or in some cases, too careless. We need common sense and a balanced response.
Some folks have completely checked out with all the rules and it looks like they're ignoring things, but I wonder if it's the same as what's happening to us at my work place, where we've become so disconnected, folks don't care about anything. We do our jobs like robots and then log off right on the dot. Directors talking to us about normal business objectives and folks have their cameras off and just not participating. We've even stopped making the efforts to have those virtual 'social' gatherings.
Weird times.
That is very sad. Doesn't he have a friend who can come over sometimes? Or is that not allowed? Sorry, I get so confused with the rules.
Byung-Chul Han has. He labels what we're doing at the moment as prioritising survival at the expense of pretty much anything else. Paraphrasing, he states, 'we've lost track of ourselves at this point and are no longer asking what we think a good life should look like'. It's a philosophical consideration for sure but I think he makes an important humanistic observation.
https://www.euractiv.com/section/gl...d-19-has-reduced-us-to-a-society-of-survival/
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But your grandparents aren't the only ones hurting - all other people are as well. We need a solution for grandparents and children. Too much isolation seems like a recipe for other horrible outcomes as well.
Also can I ask because I distrust the people in charge, but are we still basing all these things on the flawed modelling done by that Ferguson guy from Imperial College? He's the one who went on a booty call whilst telling us we couldn't see our loved ones. Not being flippant, just want to know if we're still listening to these folks.
That’s definitely an issue. The resources needed to do proper contact tracing when case numbers are high are astronomical. It’s just not possible to identify and notify all potential contacts for each positive test when daily case load is in the 000s. I don’t think people appreciate the work involved. In Ireland, our contact tracers are currently only looking back for 48 hours per positive case. So it’s no wonder cases are on the up and up.
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Thanks I will read this.
No probs. It's a philosophical observation and divorced from the usual data but it made me think.
Edit: Should also say that I agree with your initial post, it's devastating to hear about children going through such a rough time
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I’m not really sure why we need this regurgitated argument every 10 pages or so. It’s so clear all countries couldn’t react in the same way, due to so many variables within each one.
I personally would have loved it if the UK could have implemented a Sweden style response straight away, but anyone who’s ever been to Britain knows it wouldn’t have worked. The government brought themselves time to implement this, and royally fecked up the messaging (not that I think it would have made a difference).
I personally would have loved it if the UK could have implemented a Sweden style response straight away, but anyone who’s ever been to Britain knows it wouldn’t have worked. The government brought themselves time to implement this, and royally fecked up the messaging (not that I think it would have made a difference).
I enjoyed that. Also useful to think about when I’m eating kebabs instead of salad.
Which countries, in your opinion, are doing the stage 2 right? And what exactly are their measures?
I agree,can't they just start another thread. The majority of us come to this thread to read about covid-19, not Sweden v the rest of the world.
This comment of yours "It’s so clear all countries couldn’t react in the same way, due to so many variables within each one." I think is exactly right. I dont think there is any country who has got everything right.
Even if everyone ends up getting it now (which I highly doubt will be the case) the lockdown still wouldn’t have been pointless as it bought time to learn about the disease and develop treatment protocols. You have a better chance of survival catching it now than you did 6 months ago. And I’m fairly sure in 6 months time we’ll be saying the same thing regardless of if a vaccine turns up. It isn’t just a case of kicking the can down - medicine evolves.
I'm not so sure in truth. The studies I've seen show UK residents were and are one of the most fearful of the virus in Europe. We were heavily pro lockdown and heavily pro authoritarian restrictions to our civil liberties (strange given our history). This isn't to say that there wouldn't be different outcomes of course; the UK would have always had a significantly higher death toll than the likes of NZ.
If that fear were harnessed not for a very short term lockdown that fatigued the populace greatly over a 12 week period and merely kicked the can down the road; but was harnessed for a longer term period (say 12 months) of more subtle but important restrictions I think we'd be in a better situation. Asking someone to not see their family for 12 weeks and then not to go within 2 metres of them for 9 months is totally different than asking them to not go within 2 metres for 12 months. I've seen many people hug their friends and family just out of relief having not seen them for so long (bizarrely they'd be unlikely to hug them when seeing them weekly).
Coming out of a 3 month lockdown was always going to cause such a "relief" that cases are bound to spike. Whereas you look at the countries that either had no lockdown (Sweden) or a limited and not so draconian lockdown (other Nordic countries, Germany etc) and their population are far more compliant.
Obviously combining these subtle but more long term changes with a working track and trace system is imperative.
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True. As Plato once said, why have abs when you can have kebabs?
He does have a few friends but it is difficult as he also has sleep apnoea and has to wear a mask at night for that so just have to be careful with the amount of visitors they have and that they socially distance and stay outside . My father in law is actually quite chirpy as he doesn`t remember stuff from day to day so things don`t really get him down , it is actually tougher for my mother in law but you just have to get on with it and do the best you can . I visit every day as I get on really well but it is all outside , it won`t be so easy as the weather changes but as others have said social isolation is also damaging so just going to have to be careful and do the best we can .
My partner has got some symptoms including fever and it's a complete ball ache just to try to get a test organised. The only option available is today at 16.30 and it's a ridiculous 140 mile trip (annoying as there's a testing site just across from us) so obviously wouldn't make it even if we left immediately. After today it's booked for the foreseeable, at least according to the website. All of the home tests are out of stock.
Full lock down was around 6/7 weeks. Not 12. We saw people packing beaches straight after, and I don’t think for a second that would have been different if we hadn’t had a lock down.
I haven’t got any statistics to back it up, but I would bet that all the countries you listed, have a population that is far more willing to listen to their government, or scientific advice. So regardless of the measures taken, they would have largely been ignored here.
In terms of the deaths specifically, I fully believe it has more to do with how the government handled things like care homes, testing, messaging, rather than the 7 week lock down.
My whole issue with it, in the UK, seems to be the idiocy of the rules.
My brother is in one of the "lockdown" areas in NI, yet he has to travel outisde of that lockdowned area (and could conceivably travel by public transport) to his place of work in a non lockdown area that could see thousands of people come through in any give 12 hour shift he does.
His park has about 1k houses, the park closest has similar. His park is lockdown down, then next one isn't. They are both serviced by the same supermarket. So they'll come into contact doing their groceries.
Or the food to drink rule.
Or the time limit when out eating.
Etc.
There could be good reasons for any one idea that seems to fly in the face of the other but when they aren't explained to the average person, they wont follow them.
My brother is in one of the "lockdown" areas in NI, yet he has to travel outisde of that lockdowned area (and could conceivably travel by public transport) to his place of work in a non lockdown area that could see thousands of people come through in any give 12 hour shift he does.
His park has about 1k houses, the park closest has similar. His park is lockdown down, then next one isn't. They are both serviced by the same supermarket. So they'll come into contact doing their groceries.
Or the food to drink rule.
Or the time limit when out eating.
Etc.
There could be good reasons for any one idea that seems to fly in the face of the other but when they aren't explained to the average person, they wont follow them.
It is shocking mate. If everyone that needed to be tested in the UK was actually tested our numbers for positive cases would be more like France and Spain no doubt, but we will never know , it is just guess work. Are you both going to self isolate for 14 days to find it is just a cold?
That is a big part of the problem , as soon as lock down ended a lot of people just carried on as before . I know loads that did , in and out of shops everyday , nipping to a mates house . There is no hope for this country.
Well that is challenging....
As you say, do the best you can and keep engaging with your mother in law as much as possible. Even a quick call when you take break from work, will help her.