SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

Wibble said:
What are you talking about. Quarantine involves preventing infected people from outside a border from moving in. By definition is has to make a difference no matter to what degree.

People going to work inside that border are completely irrelevant. Either you don't understand what quarantine is or you just want to distract from your statement that quarantine doesn't work.
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They aren’t irrelevant if they’re spreading the virus as much, or more, than those coming from outside the border. I can’t believe you’re still arguing this point. I understand perfectly what it is thanks. You aren’t as smart as you think you are. Where is the evidence that quarantine has worked in the UK?
 
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acnumber9 said:
They aren’t irrelevant if they’re spreading the virus as much, or more, than those coming from outside the border. I can’t believe you’re still arguing this point. I understand perfectly what it is thanks. You aren’t as smart as you think you are. Where is the evidence that quarantine has worked in the UK?
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Of course they aren't irrelevant. These are additional cases to those inside the border not instead of. The spread due to people already in the UK will remains broadly the same. Add more cases from outside the country who then spread it to others who then spread it to others. All on top of the existing numbers. No matter the infection rate in each country no quarantine = more cases (unless flying direct from NZ or one of the Pacific Islands with no cases).

The UK didn't bother with any sort of quarantine for a long time and when it did it was only self isolating at home. Which is better than nothing but well short of an actual quarantine.

Are you really suggesting that the UK is somehow so different that such a basic disease control measure, that has been succesfully used worldwide since at least the 1600s, doesn't now work?

Taiwan, Australia, NZ and many other countries who have been succesful in controlling the virus have used real quarantine to great effect. To say is doesnt work is ludicrous.
 
Wibble said:
Of course they aren't irrelevant. These are additional cases to those inside the border not instead of. The spread due to people already in the UK will remains broadly the same. Add more cases from outside the country who then spread it to others who then spread it to others. All on top of the existing numbers. No matter the infection rate in each country no quarantine = more cases (unless flying direct from NZ or one of the Pacific Islands with no cases).

The UK didn't bother with any sort of quarantine for a long time and when it did it was only self isolating at home. Which is better than nothing but well short of an actual quarantine.

Are you really suggesting that the UK is somehow so different that such a basic disease control measure, that has been succesfully used worldwide since at least the 1600s, doesn't now work?

Taiwan, Australia, NZ and many other countries who have been succesful in controlling the virus have used real quarantine to great effect. To say is doesnt work is ludicrous.
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That isn't what he's saying. He's saying quarantine when cases are at a very low level domestically makes a big difference, quarantine when cases are at a high level in the country already does not make a big difference. Like contact tracing. Size matters. So when the epidemiological impact is relatively lessened, then the cost / benefit analysis changes slightly.

The UK is more similar to most other countries in the world on that choice than Australia. That's not an assessment of right or wrong, context matters as much as you'd like to pretend otherwise, it's just a refutation of the notion UK are uniquely positioned on this. That's not an uncommon view, your myopia in the subject just means you screen out the experts saying it and the logic underpinning it.

Why bother engaging in discussions when all you're doing is ramming home the same point, and dismissing all other viewpoints without consideration? You have a different view to the vast majority of people. That much is firmly established. Beating people over the head with it is a bit self indulgent.
 
jymufc20 said:
What's the chances that the cases added today and yesterday that were missed last week we're reported to the individuals as negative results ? If so that's a lot of people that haven't been self isolating (through no fault of their own)
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The so called technical glitch resulted in over 16,000 cases not being captured. And of course those people who had been close to them and potentially infected not being contacted.
It is therefore fortunate that the UK actually has a ' world class ' test and trace system is it not.
 
Wibble said:
This can't be good

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-54409368
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While I'm not sure Sinn Feins stance that the island of Ireland needs to lock down at the same time to be effective is a sincere stance as they've used this virus and every other issue as a reason for an United Ireland, which I think shouldn't even be in anyones thoughts until after this is under control. But I do agree I think in the fight against the virus the Lockdown needs to be island wide for best results.
 
Buster15 said:
The so called technical glitch resulted in over 16,000 cases not being captured. And of course those people who had been close to them and potentially infected not being contacted.
It is therefore fortunate that the UK actually has a ' world class ' test and trace system is it not.
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My god we are doomed.
 
acnumber9 said:
They aren’t irrelevant if they’re spreading the virus as much, or more, than those coming from outside the border. I can’t believe you’re still arguing this point. I understand perfectly what it is thanks. You aren’t as smart as you think you are. Where is the evidence that quarantine has worked in the UK?
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Agree with this. What matter is the probability of infection and if that's the same domestically and internationally, then there's no point in it.

It makes sense for countries like NZ.
 
Brwned said:
That isn't what he's saying. He's saying quarantine when cases are at a very low level domestically makes a big difference, quarantine when cases are at a high level in the country already does not make a big difference. Like contact tracing. Size matters. So when the epidemiological impact is relatively lessened, then the cost / benefit analysis changes slightly.

The UK is more similar to most other countries in the world on that choice than Australia. That's not an assessment of right or wrong, context matters as much as you'd like to pretend otherwise, it's just a refutation of the notion UK are uniquely positioned on this. That's not an uncommon view, your myopia in the subject just means you screen out the experts saying it and the logic underpinning it.

Why bother engaging in discussions when all you're doing is ramming home the same point, and dismissing all other viewpoints without consideration? You have a different view to the vast majority of people. That much is firmly established. Beating people over the head with it is a bit self indulgent.
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That it exactly when he first said. A straight out statement that quarantine doesn't work. He has changed his point a couple of times without acknowledging that his original point wasn't correct. And it is an important distinction. Fighting a pandemic involves many measures and dismissing such an important one out of hand is unhelpful at best.

And contact tracing potentially helps massively no matter the scale of the infection but it is practically impossible in current circumstances with our current technology and the huge numbers of infections in many countries. A pandemic needs a large range of measures and each little bit helps but no one works on its own. Our woeful lack of preparation has also been a huge factor.

Nowhere have I suggested that the UK could or will shut the border and without that a proper quarantine is almost impossible to enforce, without vastly restricting the number of people arriving at each airport per day and there is no appetite for that either. They have fecked it up so badly I have no idea where they should go from here. And if you aren't going to totally shut your borders and/or impose a proper qusrantine then of course allowing people in from countries with similar or lower infection rates is better than countries with higher infection rates. But that is not the opinion I disputed no matter how much he would like to pretend it is.
 
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Pogue Mahone said:
Fecking hell.
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This is a joke on so many levels.

So many people will be lured into a false sense of security, thinking that numbers aren't rising, when in reality we jumped up massively the last few days.

And other people will just ignore the numbers from now on, as they can't be trusted.
 
Pogue Mahone said:
I think they might push back on this one. At least for another couple of weeks. They must know how unpopular a decision it would be.
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I think they will go level 4.
I think we may see an extended Halloween break for schools too
Good to see tony holohan back and taking command. He just exudes control
 
sullydnl said:


Wonder if NPHET are politically-minded enough to recommend level 5 knowing it will be rejected but in turn make level 4 more palatable.

Also not sure what I actually want to happen. Politicians following the experts' advice or making their own calls to the contrary.
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Perhaps level 4/5 for Dublin and Donegal
Level 3 for the others
A warning to the other counties to get their shit in order
 
Pogue Mahone said:
Yeah, I’m torn too. My faith in experts (in this specific context) has been eroded by the “zero covid” crew. It’s always felt like a completely unrealistic goal for any single EU country and pissed me off when they kept banging on about it. Plus total lockdown with schools still open feels like a total fudge. And I’m a parent, who desperately wants schools to stay open. I just think nobody knows the best way to navigate out of this. They’re all making it up as they go along.
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We’re on the verge of level 5 and dropping the kids off there are still quite a large proportion wearing no masks. The school area must be a breeding ground for passing viruses around. I see some parents sniffling, sneezing and blowing their noses. It’s crazy. I wish they would make it mandatory to wear masks on school grounds and if you don’t then your kid can’t come into school, it’s not fair on those of us who want their kids to go to school but are delicately trying to balance with medical cocooning
 
So I think I'm right in saying that level 4 in Ireland is stay in your own county and level 5 is stay within 2kms of your own house?

Kind of dreading this announcement later if I'm honest.
 
golden_blunder said:
We’re on the verge of level 5 and dropping the kids off there are still quite a large proportion wearing no masks. The school area must be a breeding ground for passing viruses around. I see some parents sniffling, sneezing and blowing their noses. It’s crazy. I wish they would make it mandatory to wear masks on school grounds and if you don’t then your kid can’t come into school, it’s not fair on those of us who want their kids to go to school but are delicately trying to balance with medical cocooning
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Full disclosure. I just dropped my kids off at school. I didn’t wear a mask. I never do outdoors. I think the risk of anyone picking up an infection standing near someone outdoors is slim to none.
 
Pogue Mahone said:
Full disclosure. I just dropped my kids off at school. I didn’t wear a mask. I never do outdoors. I think the risk of anyone picking up an infection standing near someone outdoors is slim to none.
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You should see our yard. Loads stand in huddles chatting, sniffling, sneezing etc. And not just a few minutes either
 
golden_blunder said:
You should see our yard. Loads stand in huddles chatting, sniffling, sneezing etc. And not just a few minutes either
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That’s not great. The school shouldn’t let them in the yard. Our has had “drop at the gate and piss off please” rule since it reopened. Can you not bring this up with the PTA?
 
BluesJr said:
Why is closing schools again seen as such a huge negative? It won’t really have a long term impact on children IMO. They are very adaptable. I get that it’s inconvenient for parents but if everything is going to be shut anyway then there shouldn’t be a hesitation.
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It's as simple as it pisses off parents in huge numbers and is therefore electoral suicide. It polls really poorly.
 
I was visiting hospital over the weekend and was talking to a former work mate of my mums who has been in the Covid end of life care unit throughout the emergency. Cases are increasing again and although they know more about the disease and she isn't as scared by it as she was before she still predicts a huge new outbreak and deaths back to where they were. She has put off retirement and is staying on until until we have control over the situation as she can't bring herself to leave with things as they are.

A very inspiring women indeed and her loathing of the fake virus people was visceral.
 
zing said:
Agree with this. What matter is the probability of infection and if that's the same domestically and internationally, then there's no point in it.

It makes sense for countries like NZ.
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If you shut your border and quarantine those coming in you aren't swapping like for like, you are preventing infection coming in even if you yourself are exporting it.

Of course it works to best effect if you then reducing infection within your own borders. If your ambition is merely to match the infection rates of other countries then you don't need to quarantine if the measures you do make match the Ro of these other countries. Even if that is a very low bar.
 
golden_blunder said:
We’re on the verge of level 5 and dropping the kids off there are still quite a large proportion wearing no masks. The school area must be a breeding ground for passing viruses around. I see some parents sniffling, sneezing and blowing their noses. It’s crazy. I wish they would make it mandatory to wear masks on school grounds and if you don’t then your kid can’t come into school, it’s not fair on those of us who want their kids to go to school but are delicately trying to balance with medical cocooning
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Absolutely right. Our kids went back in early September and we had loads of very thorough looking emails and correspondence from the school assuring us of this safety measure and that procedure but dropping them off and picking them up is an horrific experience. Absolutely no enforcement of any kind of distancing outside of the school entrance and no enforcement of masks in the corridors.

My son came home with a cold literally 6 days after their return and in turn the whole of our household were sneezing and sniffing within days. It's scary how easily things spread. Luckily it was only a cold but you know, there but for the grace of that fella upstairs.
 
acnumber9 said:
Quarantining people coming from countries with similar infection levels to our own country couldn’t make any difference when people staying in the UK can still go to work etc.
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This is what I actually said.
 
Why would you close the schools rather than dropping down to a 3 day school week and have staggered years to reduce contact incidents?

Even politically surely that's an easier sell to parents rather than a sudden snap back into closures.
 
massi83 said:
I agree with you as did brwned. Wibble can't be argued with anything in this thread for some reason. Normally he is excellent poster. So best to just move on imo.
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I’d be happy to, people disagree at times, what I don’t like is people straight up lying about what was actually said and the arrogance around it.
 
Smores said:
Why would you close the schools rather than dropping down to a 3 day school week and have staggered years to reduce contact incidents?

Even politically surely that's an easier sell to parents rather than a sudden snap back into closures.
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I agree, we had a letter / email from our school last week saying that all students would have laptops provided from this week onwards, I can only assume it is in preparation for closures.

Staggered and part time schooling would be infinitely better than full closure.
 
Smores said:
Why would you close the schools rather than dropping down to a 3 day school week and have staggered years to reduce contact incidents?

Even politically surely that's an easier sell to parents rather than a sudden snap back into closures.
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Staggered is happening now in some schools in England at least, not sure about elsewhere but my sisters year have just had to come home today and isolate for a week because of some cases. Rest of the school years are fine as they're in different days.
 
Pogue Mahone said:
Full disclosure. I just dropped my kids off at school. I didn’t wear a mask. I never do outdoors. I think the risk of anyone picking up an infection standing near someone outdoors is slim to none.
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What do you think the chances are of picking one up at the beach, where there's loads of people but all at 6 ft away?

I haven't seen good research on this - and I know it's probably hard to come to conclusive results on this so soon.

Similar to you, I don't wear a mask when I go running. I don't see the need. I am conflicted about the beach, however, where there's loads of people.
 
Pogue Mahone said:
That’s not great. The school shouldn’t let them in the yard. Our has had “drop at the gate and piss off please” rule since it reopened. Can you not bring this up with the PTA?
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I’m on the BoM :lol:
In theory they are meant to drop and go but because we are sharing parking with the neighbouring school, the reality is parking wars so people hang around as they don’t want to give up parking spot before the school bell goes. Also we have issued directives to wear masks but it appears our neighbours haven’t so a big proportion of theirs don’t appear to wear masks but are walking around the shared areas with us. Obviously we have no control over them so I’d love a government directive
 
Wibble said:
That it exactly when he first said. A straight out statement that quarantine doesn't work. He has changed his point a couple of times without acknowledging that his original point wasn't correct. And it is an important distinction. Fighting a pandemic involves many measures and dismissing such an important one out of hand is unhelpful at best.

And contact tracing potentially helps massively no matter the scale of the infection but it is practically impossible in current circumstances with our current technology and the huge numbers of infections in many countries. A pandemic needs a large range of measures and each little bit helps but no one works on its own. Our woeful lack of preparation has also been a huge factor.

Nowhere have I suggested that the UK could or will shut the border and without that a proper quarantine is almost impossible to enforce, without vastly restricting the number of people arriving at each airport per day and there is no appetite for that either. They have fecked it up so badly I have no idea where they should go from here. And if you aren't going to totally shut your borders and/or impose a proper qusrantine then of course allowing people in from countries with similar or lower infection rates is better than countries with higher infection rates. But that is not the opinion I disputed no matter how much he would like to pretend it is.
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I think he just stated his point a little emphatically and didn't expect someone to hold him to his precise words, when the sentiment was what mattered. Which we've all done every now and then. Otherwise I agree.
 
golden_blunder said:
I’m on the BoM :lol:
In theory they are meant to drop and go but because we are sharing parking with the neighbouring school, the reality is parking wars so people hang around as they don’t want to give up parking spot before the school bell goes. Also we have issued directives to wear masks but it appears our neighbours haven’t so a big proportion of theirs don’t appear to wear masks but are walking around the shared areas with us. Obviously we have no control over them so I’d love a government directive
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Nobody would need to wear masks if the parents weren’t hanging around in groups in the yard. Surely the school can tell all the parents that they’re not allowed in the yard? Drop your kids at the gate and go home. Of if you’re picking them up, meet them outside the school gate. You don’t need a government directive for that.
 
Volumiza said:
Absolutely right. Our kids went back in early September and we had loads of very thorough looking emails and correspondence from the school assuring us of this safety measure and that procedure but dropping them off and picking them up is an horrific experience. Absolutely no enforcement of any kind of distancing outside of the school entrance and no enforcement of masks in the corridors.

My son came home with a cold literally 6 days after their return and in turn the whole of our household were sneezing and sniffing within days. It's scary how easily things spread. Luckily it was only a cold but you know, there but for the grace of that fella upstairs.
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Yeah we had the same experience. Now we are starting to sniffle again.
then I get one of my idiot ex workmates posting shit graphs On whatsAp showing low deaths and saying cases are only going up because you know, extra testing. Absolute waste of sperm
 
zing said:
What do you think the chances are of picking one up at the beach, where there's loads of people but all at 6 ft away?

I haven't seen good research on this - and I know it's probably hard to come to conclusive results on this so soon.

Similar to you, I don't wear a mask when I go running. I don't see the need. I am conflicted about the beach, however, where there's loads of people.
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I think avoiding crowds, indoors or outdoors, is wise. And if you can’t avoid a crowd then mask up. I haven’t seen any solid evidence either. This just seems like common sense.
 
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