The numbers vary from a few studies, some say 1 in 4, others say 1 in 6, some say 1 in 3.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/brucel...evelop-antibodies-study-says/?sh=4c30302a5f60
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
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In the latest episode of the United Hour Podcast, Nik (@Rood) is joined by CEO Duncan Drasdo and Financial Director Andy Green from the Manchester United Supporters Trust for a special episode on all things behind the scenes at Old Trafford including a brief history of MUST and their aims today, views on INEOS and Sir Jim Ratcliffe so far, and the Old Trafford regeneration.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/brucel...evelop-antibodies-study-says/?sh=4c30302a5f60
Sorry for being obtuse but at some point it gets a bit frustrating. 3-5% of Londoners have covid right now.
No apology needed, its an important point I completely missed
Yes. That’s the worry. Especially considering that omicron shares spike protein mutations with beta (large wave in SA, no previous wave in uk) that it doesn’t share with dellta.
What I meant was the majority of the remaining minority dead, with some unfortunately stuck with lifelong symptoms, I truly hope though there isn’t a harsh long covid with Omicron because that would be devastating.
Have a point if the beta wave wasn't hugely smaller then then delta and didn't even get close to what omicron/delta is.
So i'd be sceptical.
misleading article. Headline figure is based on a sample of 72. Ny article linked says nothing of the sort, Israeli study said 95% had antibodies, and I don’t understand most of the last article but it was a study of 90 people.
Over the past month daily COVID19 cases have doubled from a daily average of around 38000 to about 80000. But hospitalisations and deaths have remained the same. Is this the an early sign that Omicron might really be much less deadly, and we are seeing the beginning of the end of covid dominating the world?
Unfortunately - that’s more to do with the impact of the booster drive on Delta. Omicron has only been around for a few weeks - the impact on hospitalisation (in the UK) is only coming through now and the impact on deaths is probably a few weeks away.
Having said that there is some data in South Africa suggesting it is more mild. But for a huge variety of reasons, it’s not yet clear decisively how much of that is due to omicron itself being less severe and other factors. That is one of a handful of critical questions which scientists are working to answer.
That's the big hope - the evidence is limited though. Maybe, if we all cross our fingers reeeeaaaallly hard.
93k today. Thought it would break 100k
Same. Although I worry how much is influenced by "No way am I taking an LFT on the 16th December"
Next week, if Omicron follows past SARS2 patterns, we'll see that leap in hospitalisations, a week after that we'll see what happens to deaths. Meanwhile we're just trying to guess which bits of SA's experience apply to the UK, plus looking at the first scraps of data from London. We're all going that the boosters will keep the over 70s out of hospital, but we really have no idea of that's true.
Do LFT results count towards those figures?
I presume they mean a positive LFT leads to a responsibility to take a PCR, otherwise it’s ignorance is bliss.
They do once you report the result.
Will definitely see an increase, but hopefully and I don’t think it’s blind faith to think it we won’t see an hospitalisations escalation in line with previous rates of infection to hospitalisations rates.
Worth reading the full report. Has a table comparing outcomes with delta cases over the same time period. Approximately the same hospitalisation rates (1.2% vs 1.5%) Ditto for ITU admissions.
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You’d think so wouldn’t you
Same rate as Delta? Sorry Twitter gets angry if I click anything. That wouldn’t be ideal - but then again it’s still a very small population
Numbers will be lower "officially" because people will be resisting reporting in these next few days to save their parties, jobs and Christmas.
But having been in London today, I can say it was very quiet.
That makes to much sense to do to be honest, kids are the driver of the current wave.
Is there a risk people are underestimating how Omicron will effect its population given we are relying so much on the South African data? From what I read a while back, the probability of developing severe covid varied significantly between different ethnicities and the genetic make up was a large factor in this (socio-economic factors also contributed). Given the ethnic makeup of SA is mostly black and mixed raced people, is it at all likely that the probability of developing severe covid from Omicron could be wildly different in the UK with 85% of the population being white?
Following the same pattern as nearly every stat since the pandemic has begun initially starts off at a higher percentage ends well below it once the case data catches up.
been the same throughout what crazy death rate did we think covid had originally. I’d see that as positive info with such small number of cases
The only evidence of ethnicity and covid outcomes skews in the opposite direction. With worse outcomes in black and other minority ethnicities (UK data) Although that’s likely to be due to reasons other than genetics.
I don’t know how you can see it as positive. Small numbers just means results less reliable. It doesn’t bias them to be any better or worse.
Yay positivity!
... Oh negativity
Tbf Pogue has been more positive than usual lately.
Pubs in Ireland closing @ 8pm now. You'd feel for the workers impacted by it but it's unfortunately necessary. Our health system is too shit to deal with the inevitable surge.
Yay positivity!
... Oh negativity
Tbf Pogue has been more positive than usual lately.
Everything I’m seeing coming out of South Africa about severity is positive. But we can’t assume the experience will be the same over here. For lots of reasons.
The Danish data isn’t ideal but it’s far too preliminary to get worried about.
If I was a betting man I’d hedge my bets there’s a plenty of data available have we got an example yet where there has been high prevalence of cases with any variant where the data is drastically different compared to another country.
obviously ignoring vaccination vs not as that’s a no brainer, genuine question?
Should probs clarify similar nations in prosperity not comparing people living in extreme poverty as we all know that will sway it massively. The rate of obesity would be my biggest worry for some of the wealthier nations
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This is a good/sensible thread which sums up where my own head is at with this. A bit yankocentric but still makes sense on this side of the pond.
1,598,910 tests done too.
Apparently rate of obesity in SA is identical to UK (28%)
As someone in a country with no boosters or anti viral pills in sight, that made me feel like shit.
I'm not sure what closing them at 8pm instead of 11pm actually solves. Only vaccinated people can go in and they are already adhering to 2m rules. Seems pointless. It's basically their way of closing them without having to actually close them and fund them, by the looks of it. The mad thing is them doing this and keeping the schools open on possibly the most pointless week for them to be open. Something had to be done, I guess. Hospital/ICU numbers down which doesn't help their cause but they're obviously being pro-active about omicron and if it avoids us being locked down til summer again then fine.
Do other countries also do wastewater analysis for viral particles? Through analysis we predicted the wave one week before positive cases were reported.
Just gonna lead to those stupid scenes of everyone leaving at the same time all together, which is insane with such a transmissible virus