GoonerBear
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- Oct 28, 2020
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- Arsenal
In terms of where you are, I’d say you’re 2 years behind Arsenal.
And statements like that are why folk have a go at giddy Arsenal fans.
In terms of where you are, I’d say you’re 2 years behind Arsenal.
And statements like that are why folk have a go at giddy Arsenal fans.
Tbf it wasn't delusion when Ferguson was manager. But yeah assuming we'll win 3 games in hand these days is pure lunacy.The biggest self delusion in football is the belief you’ll win your games in hand…
I think he plays an important role for Arteta's system. I just don't see Arteta will sell him unless Xhaka wants out. I hope Lacazette will renew his contract too so he can give us option up front. His link up play is very good. Hopefully the club can agree a 2 year deal with him, but I believe Lacazette is looking for a longer deal else where.
My metric to judge Arteta is not their position when Emery was fired. It is Arsenal's performance in previous seasons, their track record, and their expectations as a club. If I judged Arteta by Emery's final position, I'd be doing him a favor.
It doesn't make sense to use their league position when Arteta started or when Emery was fired. Nobody believed that Arsenal were, on underlying quality, the 8th or 10th or 12th best team in the Premier League when Arteta was appointed. That's why they fired the manager.
The fundamental claim here is, "Arsenal were in really bad shape." The evidence being offered is "they were 11th or 12th for a few weeks." That is weak evidence for the claim. Football teams have periods of bad form; they are not necessarily a reflection of their underlying quality. A manager hired mid-season is almost certainly taking over a period after a period of bad form. If you judge the manager based on where the team where when they took over (or whereabouts), you are very likely to be using outliers as your reference point.
Nobody actually judges managers this way. Two years into Xavi's stint as manager of Barcelona, 'league placement when he was hired' isn't going to be anywhere on your mind. You're going to judge him based on the standards of your club, previous league finishes under other managers, and take context into account.
Xhaka is very limited, if Arsenal have CL level ambition then will move him over the summer. Laca is not extending his contract, also he isn't a 20 goal a season striker which Arsenal needs desperately.
Striker & CM are two areas Arsenal need upgrades to challenge consistently for top 4.
I would love to replace Xhaka with Kalvin Phillips and I’d snap up Greenwood if he can’t get game time at OT
You can't afford him. Maybe Sam Greenwood, you can.
He‘s got, what, 18 months left on his contract? He’s clearly not progressing with you lot. I imagine he’d jump at the chance to play alongside other English youngsters like Saka, ESR, White and Ramsdale, not to mention exciting talents like Odegaard and Martinelli. Of course he’s affordable given you lot not playing him is likely to drive values down not up.
He has contract till 2025 with option to extend for one more year. Re the rest of the post, all I can say is. Greenwood jumping at the chance to play for Arsenal, two more wins and Neymar will be waiting outside Emirates with his own pen to sign Arsenal contract.
And how the feck this narrative that Geenwood is not playing started? He started 11 league games, 3 CL games. He was also out injured/Covid. So he is playing regularly. If anything, you can sign de beek. He barely gets a game.
Greenwood is 9th in league mins for Manutd. He is also 9th in total mins played by outfield player.
So Greenwood with 11 league games out of 17 is not playing regularly (also missing few games with Covid) but Arsenal players
ESR - 13 starts in 19 games
Odegaard - 13 starts in 19
Martinelli - 8 starts in 19 are regular players. Also ManUtd played in CL, so they had to rotate the team, Arsenal don't even have that excuse.
And statements like that are why folk have a go at giddy Arsenal fans.
He‘s got, what, 18 months left on his contract? He’s clearly not progressing with you lot. I imagine he’d jump at the chance to play alongside other English youngsters like Saka, ESR, White and Ramsdale, not to mention exciting talents like Odegaard and Martinelli. Of course he’s affordable given you lot not playing him is likely to drive values down not up.
Now if you want to say he finished 8th twice so he's rubbish, that's up to you, but it's such a completely basic way of looking at it. If you want to say his second season he was poor for finishing 8th, then I can understand that for sure. But to say his first season was poor is stupid, because it just wasn't.
Typically, the average club earns 1.3 points a match. Typically, Bridgewater found, a club sacks its manager when it averages only 1 point a match—that is, at a low point in the cycle. Any statistician can predict what should happen after a low point: whether or not the club sacks its manager, or changes its brand of teacakes, its performance will probably “regress to the mean” – or in ordinary language, return to normal. Bridgewater found that three months after a sacking, the typical club averaged the standard 1.3 points a game.
https://www.fourfourtwo.com/features/soccernomics-does-sacking-manager-actually-make-difference
Leaving aside the whataboutery, so why is his agent punting him around?
Id say they're where we were a decade ago. No trophies and all that false hope disappearing by Christmas. The only difference being their football is shite.
Explain why you dissent from that view
C'mon mate, your not doing our credibility any good on here!![]()
Leaving aside the whataboutery, so why is his agent punting him around?
Genuinely, do you think Greenwood - among the brightest young players in England right now - will jump at a chance to play for Arsenal, who haven't qualified for CL in 5 years?
I'm certain we won't let him leave -his contract is till 2025, but even if he does leave for some reason, he'd go to a bigger team than Arsenal, with all due respect to you guys.
Where?
Given their new manager faces the same problems we had 2 years ago with lots of deadwood, old players that needed to be cleared out, I’d say the comparison is valid. Maybe explain why you disagree?
Press reports of his unhappiness and being linked to Arsenal. Google it.
One trophy shouldn't be used strongly to access him either way, Pulisic doesn't pull up and it's Lampard lifting that trophy, would that alone have suddenly stopped everything that went wrong for us the following year?The penalty kick has won trophies all over the world. Why should it not count for Arteta and Arsenal?
Press reports of his unhappiness and being linked to Arsenal. Google it.
I don't have to Google it, the shit has been posted here and everyone laughed at the source.
Do you believe everything that's reported by Sun, Mirror and other shit papers?
The deadwood that our fans say - will be out this season as most of them are out of contract - Lingard, Mata, even Pogba. Cavani is leaving as is. Jones, Matic might leave as well. So, among the older players- it's just Ronaldo.
I mean we haven't played well, but that doesn't make AWB, Maguire, Shaw, Fred, McT, etc deadwood ffs
No one believes that garbage, bar maybe him.
No smoke without fire, the leaks to the press suggest he’s not happy. Who knows, come the end of the season we might be higher placed than you lot. I agree he’s a great talent, though.
Given their new manager faces the same problems we had 2 years ago with lots of deadwood, old players that needed to be cleared out, I’d say the comparison is valid. Maybe explain why you disagree?
Well said. Anyday I would rate a manager more that finished 3rd and 2nd in his full season than a manager who finished 8th.One trophy shouldn't be used strongly to access him either way, Pulisic doesn't pull up and it's Lampard lifting that trophy, would that alone have suddenly stopped everything that went wrong for us the following year?
Nice moment in isolation but look at the list of managers who have lifted the domestic cups this side of the millennium, should big clubs be looking at Redknapp or McLeish?
I don’t think there’s any hope in hell of Greenwood moving from United to Arsenal. I think he’s be a brilliant addition to that arsenal side, but I don’t see why he’d make the move.
I understand from your points breakdown (23, 33) that you are not counting the Everton game as Arteta's first, which is fair since he'd only been appointed very recently. That means there should be 20 games for Arteta, not 18.
33/20 is 1.65. 23/18 is 1.28. This means that, under Arteta, the performances improved by 0.37 points per game compared to the rest of the season.
I would expect PPG to improve under a new manager, because the reason you fire a manager is that performances are not up to par. The question then, is how much improvement should we expect. I found this quantification:
So there is a difference of 0.3 PPG when you change manager. Very close to the 0.37 PPG difference between Arteta's stint and the rest of the season. To me this shows the pitfalls of making these type of comparisons, and why it is difficult to separate the influence of the manager from everything else.
That leaves me with judging pure outcome, the league placement, which wasn't good. That's not 'all his fault' of course. By definition, he wasn't the manager the whole time. Is that fair? Not really. If Arteta had died in a tragic asteroid incident after the 2019-2020 season ended, I would just not have an opinion. The problem is he didn't; instead, he had a bad second season where he finished 8th after hovering between 9th and 10th for most of it. If I combine the two, the overall picture is grim.
I can understand arsenal fans optimism but they should not be too giddy here. Their next two games in PL is city and spurs. Win or get 4 points from those two then some may accept things are slowly turning for good but chances are they lose both the games and all comes back to square one.
I can understand arsenal fans optimism but they should not be too giddy here. Their next two games in PL is city and spurs. Win or get 4 points from those two then some may accept things are slowly turning for good but chances are they lose both the games and all comes back to square one.
If you want to truly progress you actually have to start getting results in the big games especially at home.That’s just setting a very high bar. City is the best side in the world and in full flow right now. Getting any result there would be a big positive but a loss is basically expected and really wouldn’t change my view of Arsenal’s current trajectory (on the upswing but not anywhere near City’s level).
However, ultimately you have to start competing with these clubs. You can't just write these big games off and then call that progress. If that is progress why even sack wenger. Going there and losing 2-0, 3-0 is not a progress.That’s just setting a very high bar. City is the best side in the world and in full flow right now. Getting any result there would be a big positive but a loss is basically expected and really wouldn’t change my view of Arsenal’s current trajectory (on the upswing but not anywhere near City’s level).