Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

groovyalbert said:
Anyone with a knowledge of Russian politics know of any actors who could be keen undermine Putin in this/have ambitions to succeed him?
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There aren't anyone with a decent political capital in his immediate circle (or anywhere else). It's kind of the point of being an autocracy — if such a person appears, it ends up humiliated/arrested or even dead.

Dmitry Medvedev was once considered to be a potential successor (and even got elected as a president when Putin needed a break demanded by the constitution), but after Putin decided to stay he saw his rising popularity to be an issue and made him a non-entity. At this point Medvedev is one of the loudest voices for the invasion, trying to earn back the favour of his moody master.

Sergey Shoygu is one of Putin closest allies, they love to spend their vacations together (their photos weirdly have that brokeback mountain vibes), but while he's generally respected for his service as a minister of emergency situations & now the minister of defense, he doesn't have any real capital as a politician.

The last big name that some considered to be a potential successor is Sergey Sobyanin, the current mayor of Moscow... but he doesn't have any ties to FSB or the army, and without their support he wouldn't be able to do anything even if he wanted to.
 
hellhunter said:
Apparently they already hit a Turkish ship. Even if accidential, shit happens. Maybe I'm being paranoid, but it seems like a lot could go wrong there
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A Turkish ship isn't an american aircraft. While I don't have much faith in NATO, if they attack any of the US, UK or France. They will be obliterated by the three of them without even going through NATO.
 
Still feel like Russia has committed way less than half of their firepower/men to this conflict.
 
Unless they adopt shock and awe approach against the major ukranian cities, basically turning them and their inhabitants into rubble, they aint 'winning' this war. And if they do that it would be a hollow victory as they would lose support from of their closest allies and loose whatevers left of their 'soft' power.

perhaps we shouldnt be suprised that some of these folks arent the geniuses that they are made out to be. we in the Uk have our own history of this with our doomed afghan / iraqi adventures...
 
BluesJr said:
Still feel like Russia has committed way less than half of their firepower/men to this conflict.
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Correct for the firepower part, russians are currently using mostly the old equipment compared to what they were/are currently using in Syria.
 
Foxbatt said:
I don't think it's risky at all. All they need to do is inform The Russians it's an American aircraft coming into evacuating and the Russians dare not shoot it down.
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Wasnt it Russia, or at least Russian separatists that shot down an airliner with 283 passengers over Eastern Ukraine not many years ago. ( 2014)
They could not confirm who fired, but it was a Russian-made BUK missile system, originally issued to the Russian brigade,
but was in the hands of the Russian separatists based in Ukraine, it was confirmed that it was fired from territory
held by them, Right down to the time and which field it was fired from.

Would you be happy to be openly flying in any plane over Ukrainian or Russian airspace right now?
 
VorZakone said:
Obviously unconfirmed but interesting thread.

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I very much doubt that Putin would discuss all that with businessmen. Let alone at Ural of all places. The fact that this copypasta appears everywhere with the same wording and different sources mentioned, as well as the same unrealistic dialogs and Putin spilling the beans on every fail that he has made up to this point, makes it sound even sketchier.

My sympathies are with Ukraine in this war but their propaganda can be just as blatant and unrealistic as the Russian one. Scratch that, this sounds like the infamous intercepted call where unspecified foreign agents "Nick" and "Mike" discussed how tough Lukashenko had turned out to be that all of their devious plans to overthrow him had failed.
 
do.ob said:
I have read about several Russian (super) GMs, who have given statements against the war, for example also their current champion Vitiugov, their young hope Esipenko, their female star Kosteniuk and of course from the old guard there's Kasparov, who seems to have dedicated his post-chess life to opposing Putin.

Aside from the fact that Karpov is a Duma member I really have only read about open support from Karjakin, who seems to go all-in on putin, aggressively spewing propaganda, making jokes about Ukraine and most recently threatening to boycott Carlsen's online chess platform for criticizing him. Which is especially distasteful, since he was actually born in Ukraine and represented them all through his youth and teens.
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Yep, Ian Nepomniachtchi has alluded to being against the war too and I believe Alexander Grischuk and Danil Dubov have been seen at anti-Putin rallies in the past as well.

Karjakin is the only high profile player I've seen take the contrary position. And it isn't likely to leave him popular among fellow GMs:

 
VorZakone said:
Obviously unconfirmed but interesting thread.

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I'd say Pootin underestimated how much Ukraine had been preparing for this inevitable event. He expected a walk in the park with light resistance. When you see pictures of civilians defending their cities with molotov's and whatever they can lay their hands on, it just shows how deluded he is. Only way he's going to break these people is by obliterating them thermobaric weapons. I hope a solution is found soon as it's heartbreaking seeing what's going on there.
 
Putin 'told Russian troops to stop advancing in Ukraine yesterday' - Kremlin
The Kremlin has claimed that Vladimir Putin yesterday told Russian troops to stop advancing in Ukraine.
Despite this, military forces continued to move towards Kyiv.
It is understood that Russian troops are 30km (19 miles) from the centre of Kyiv, though a Ukrainian MP suggested to Sky News they could be much closer.

As usual guys, don't believe a word the Kremlin says.
 
Red For Ever said:
Wasnt it Russia, or at least Russian separatists that shot down an airliner with 283 passengers over Eastern Ukraine not many years ago. ( 2014)
They could not confirm who fired, but it was a Russian-made BUK missile system, originally issued to the Russian brigade,
but was in the hands of the Russian separatists based in Ukraine, it was confirmed that it was fired from territory
held by them, Right down to the time and which field it was fired from.

Would you be happy to be openly flying in any plane over Ukrainian or Russian airspace right now?
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Most likely it was the separatists (going by the evidence that exists it's probable that it was a case of gross incompetence — they were celebrating that they've managed to shoot down a Ukrainian military plane and then, suddenly, the celebration stopped and the cover up, which later included Russia as well, started).

To shoot down an American plane willingly is another matter... but then I'm not sure if they would allow it to fly in and out uninterrupted.
 
harms said:
Most likely it was the separatists (going by the evidence that exists it's probable that it was a case of gross incompetence — they were celebrating that they've managed to shoot down a Ukrainian military plane and then, suddenly, the celebration stopped and the cover up, which later included Russia as well, started).

To shoot down an American plane willingly is another matter... but then I'm not sure if they would allow it to fly in and out uninterrupted.
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But that's the thing, it doesn't have to be intentionally to cause all sorts of mayhem
 
BluesJr said:
Still feel like Russia has committed way less than half of their firepower/men to this conflict.
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Gambit said:
No need to feel it, they haven't.
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VorZakone said:
Don't have to feel it, it's pretty much objectively true.
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Fredo said:
Correct for the firepower part, russians are currently using mostly the old equipment compared to what they were/are currently using in Syria.
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I don’t think that matters. This needed to be a quick win for Putin and dragging it out does not suit him.

He’s has clearly underestimated Ukraine and the Russian military is being shown up thus far. Ill prepared, old equipment, poor logistics and planning, tactically inept..

It doesn’t matter what’s in reserve, this will be costing billions per day to fund. Morale will wane and appetite fade. Pressure will continue to build when you add the full range of world sanctions imposed. Frozen out of the world financially and having to fund a battle no one really wants to be in.. this could drag.

It’s a disaster for Russia and a hole that they are firmly stuck in.
 
harms said:
I very much doubt that Putin would discuss all that with businessmen. Let alone at Ural of all places. The fact that this copypasta appears everywhere with the same wording and different sources mentioned, as well as the same unrealistic dialogs and Putin spilling the beans on every fail that he has made up to this point, makes it sound even sketchier.

My sympathies are with Ukraine in this war but their propaganda can be just as blatant and unrealistic as the Russian one. Scratch that, this sounds like the infamous intercepted call where unspecified foreign agents "Nick" and "Mike" discussed how tough Lukashenko had turned out to be that all of their devious plans to overthrow him had failed.
Click to expand...

It's definitely worth bearing in mind as we see uncomfirmed stories that paint the Ukrainian position in positive light emerge that they will indeed be desperately (and correctly) trying to dictate the narrative around the war.

Whether it's Zelensky repeatedly showing himself still there fighting, highlighting Ukrainian military successes or pushing the idea that they just need to hold out for X many days, it's all the sort of narrative you would want broadcast to Ukrainians still fighting. Messaging matters and (from what we're seeing at least) they've done a good job of that so far.
 
TheReligion said:
I don’t think that matters. This needed to be a quick win for Putin and dragging it out does not suit him.

He’s has clearly underestimated Ukraine and the Russian military is being shown up thus far. Ill prepared, old equipment, poor logistics and planning, tactically inept..

It doesn’t matter what’s in reserve, this will be costing billions per day to fund. Morale will wane and appetite fade. Pressure will continue to build when you add the full range of world sanctions imposed. Frozen out of the world financially and having to fund a battle no one really wants to be in.. this could drag.

It’s a disaster for Russia and a hole that they are firmly stuck in.
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Even if the numbers quoted by Ukraine (3,500 dead Russian soldiers) are double of what they really are, then it’s likely they will lose more soldiers by tomorrow than US did in 20 years in Afghanistan. This can’t have been their goal at all.
 
I'd say that overestimating Putin's failures in Ukraine is something that we should be wary of. Simply because it already started to create a less realistic picture of events. It's very much understandable why Ukrainian sources push forward that view of the situation — they need to boost their public morale by all means possible, but while the invasion had certainly didn't go as smoothly as Putin would want it to, it still leads at this point to a very likely victory if no significant change happens.
 
spiriticon said:
Putin 'told Russian troops to stop advancing in Ukraine yesterday' - Kremlin
The Kremlin has claimed that Vladimir Putin yesterday told Russian troops to stop advancing in Ukraine.
Despite this, military forces continued to move towards Kyiv.
It is understood that Russian troops are 30km (19 miles) from the centre of Kyiv, though a Ukrainian MP suggested to Sky News they could be much closer.

As usual guys, don't believe a word the Kremlin says.
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So any chance troops are called back now and this war ends?
 
harms said:
I'd say that overestimating Putin's failures in Ukraine is something that we should be wary of. Simply because it already started to create a less realistic picture of events. It's very much understandable why Ukrainian sources push forward that view of the situation — they need to boost their public morale by all means possible, but while the invasion had certainly didn't go as smoothly as Putin would want it to, it still leads at this point to a very likely victory if no significant change happens.
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Depends on what we qualify as victory though.
 
Rektsanwalt said:
what about Germany by the way? Tweet says Hungary is the last country that was opposing cutting them off from swift, but Germany didn't want to either and I haven't read anything different so far.
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Some sources reported Germany being on board with cutting SWIFT yesterday. Baerbock in an interview last night didn't quite sound as convincing, mind.
 
Rektsanwalt said:
what about Germany by the way? Tweet says Hungary is the last country that was opposing cutting them off from swift, but Germany didn't want to either and I haven't read anything different so far.
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I think Germany confirmed they were OK with that yesterday.
 
sullydnl said:
It's definitely worth bearing in mind as we see uncomfirmed stories that paint the Ukrainian position in positive light emerge that they will indeed be desperately (and correctly) trying to dictate the narrative around the war.

Whether it's Zelensky repeatedly showing himself still there fighting, highlighting Ukrainian military successes or pushing the idea that they just need to hold out for X many days, it's all the sort of narrative you would want broadcast to Ukrainians still fighting. Messaging matters and (from what we're seeing at least) they've done a good job of that so far.
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You can’t blame the deer voicing it hard when the lion is still circling and punching, though? They are buying time, and the more they buy the more they have a chance to save their skin. I have to admit some comments over here are just appalling and overtly cynical, which makes grim reading. Better I leave this place for a while.
 
BluesJr said:
Still feel like Russia has committed way less than half of their firepower/men to this conflict.
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Yes but think how embarrassing for Putin it will be if he has to commit all of that invasion force despite complete superiority in every department.
 
Bepi said:
You can’t blame the deer voicing it hard when the lion is still circling and punching, though? They are buying time, and the more they buy the more they have a chance to save their skin. I have to admit some comments over here are just appalling and overtly cynical, which makes grim reading. Better I leave this place for a while.
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Oh I don't blame them at all, it's exactly what they should be doing.
 
harms said:
I'd say that overestimating Putin's failures in Ukraine is something that we should be wary of. Simply because it already started to create a less realistic picture of events. It's very much understandable why Ukrainian sources push forward that view of the situation — they need to boost their public morale by all means possible, but while the invasion had certainly didn't go as smoothly as Putin would want it to, it still leads at this point to a very likely victory if no significant change happens.
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Even if you don’t believe the figures it’s clear this isn’t going according to plan at all.
 
VorZakone said:
Obviously unconfirmed but interesting thread.

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This feels made up. The $10b a day number also seems invented. For context, the US’s burn rate at its absolute biggest in Iraq (during peak surge) was $10b per month.
 
Still trying to play catch up after a good nights sleep... Incredible what Ukrainian forces are achieving. They barely seem to have lost an inch last night desipte Russia's best efforts.

They've held all Kyiv entrances and the town of Vasylkiv to the SW. Lost Melitopol but moved back in to Kherson.

They've destroyed numerous logistics convoys overnight, Russians don't appear to have any sort of supply line protection.

Amour running out of food and fuel now. More surrenders, lots of footage of demoralised troops not know what the hell they are doing there. Whilst Ukrainians becoming more and more resolved.

UA Air Force still exists...

More attempted airdrops without having air security... Attempted airdrop at Lviv airfield even, what the actual feck? Just sending poor bastards to their deaths.

They are appearing to be militarily incompetent. I can't imagine the whats going through the heads of their commanders right now.

All reasons for optimism but Ukraine still can't win this given the numbers on the other side, it depends on just how far Putin is willing to go and what costs he can accept.

Pray to god we can keep them well supplied, that's the key, time is not on Putins side.
 
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