Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

altodevil said:
Someone explain to me why this SWIFT decision won't just result in Russia, China, India having an alternative. Don't China have one already? Do we really want Russia being pushed east, or will these sanctions ruin them?
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Bilateral trade and probably a few B2B business can always trade. Golds. Bonds. Rubels. Yuan. Barter. Etc.

But 99% of the population will get stuck. And that's practically it. You cant withdraw, exchange, cant even buy online, pays for netflix etc

That's why america are so weary about nations that wants to deviate from USD or any other region that does so. It's their economic atomic bomb.
 
Jam said:
It's very complex but in a basic sense even if they do trade between themselves it is still a massive reduction - losing global trading powers and just dealing with India and China in a limited capacity. Russia also doesn't want to be "reliant" on China, they want to be perceived as equal footing. Their foreign currency is frozen and locked away, the rouble will have next to no value come Monday too. Russia's economy is fecked. Their credit rating is kaput; they can't lend in any reasonable capacity.

India and China are also wary of Russian actions, at the UN Security Council vote the other night instead of voting "No" in step with Russia they abstained, which was genuinely quite surprising.

China is also worried of secondary sanctions and it's state banks are limiting financing for buying Russian materials.
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How that’s ever going to work though when their economy is ten times smaller? Russia’s GDP is half of that of France, below Italy and barely over Spain.
 
Champ said:
Just because they have planned for sanctions, doesn't mean they can deal with them!

The sanctions are harsh, very harsh, and the resistance is also sturdy in Ukraine, couple the two together and you have a problem which they may have been relying on an ally (China?) to assist, and that isn't forth coming right now.
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Makes me wonder why everyone was quick to a conclusion that China would help them, there’s not much for them to gain vs what they could lose in the West. They will help wherever they can make money but it won’t be to Russia’s benefit. I reckon China just likes where they are right now.
 
VorZakone said:
Many books and case studies will be written.
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My daughters boyfriend is in Uni doing History/Geopolitics… they’re actually discussing it on his course as it happens.

Must be odd feeling as you’d go on that course expecting to read about the impacts of various events, but all historic. Now he‘s doing it live.
 
I don't know how effective Macron has been but I admire and respect his assertiveness and initiatives.

 
Sarni said:
How that’s ever going to work though when their economy is ten times smaller? Russia’s GDP is half of that of France, below Italy and barely over Spain.
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It's not. But perception is also important, how many people would have thought their economy was much smaller? And that gets blown up the second they're seen as begging China for a single cent.
 
Smithy89 said:
This a legit translation? Don't get why Chechen thugs are made out to be some sort of super soldier, maybe it's their brutality that gives them this claim.
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Religious fanatics who actually enjoy in fighting and have major combat experience in Syria or young men who are first time in war and it is because they must be there. Against who would you rather fight?
Combat experience is priceless war. Having said that; of course there is a lot of media propaganda around them. They are not some super soldiers for sure.
 
Mciahel Goodman said:
This is the point. He's crazy enough to invade Ukraine, which means he's irrational, but apparently sane enough not to use nuclear weapons when confronted with a direct no fly zone within the Ukraine. He's either insane (quite possible) or he isn't (not much evidence on this front unless we conclude invading Ukraine is rational).

On the other hand, there are degrees of rationality. He might be "insane" enough to invade Ukraine but this doesn't necessarily mean he is literally irrational in every other sense.
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There's a profound lack of even half sensible explanations for the decision to invade Ukraine, any decent explanation that doesn't make Putin look irrational would be most welcome at this point. It would be a big surprise if his inner circle is comfortable with the direction they're heading in. Putin might be crazy enough to insist on the use of nuclear weapons and he might not be that crazy, but it's not like he's going to instantly launch them on his own and I honestly doubt that anyone close to him is going to stand by while and accept it's the end of days. They were never going to feck with him as he has again and again proven what'll happen to those that goes against him, but now they suddenly find themselves in a position where supporting him could be very very bad for them. There's always upsides for someone, in this case China, but I really don't think China is all that happy about the type of conflict that Russia is now engaging in, and it wouldn't surprise me that they also share serious concerns about Putins actions and the consequences it could have. We're talking permanently damaged relationships with western countries and sanctions that could potentially have dire consequences for large parts of the Russian population, not to mention constantly going after billionaires that makes up Putins inner circle.

It's not unrealistic that Putin has completely fecked up.
 
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VorZakone said:
Financial Times correspondent gives thread on sanctions impact.

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And there you have it. You can prepare all you want to get hit but if it's a truck instead of a bike, it won't be any less painful.
 
Rightnr said:
And there you have it. You can prepare all you want to get hit but if it's a truck instead of a bike, it won't be any less painful.
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Yeah, sanctions seriously piling up now for Russia. This is gonna hurt.
 
Have to feel for the Ukrainian people, to have rockets fired at your country must be terrifying, men not allowed to leave, women and kids leaving, how many of them will see their boyfriends/girlfriends/husbands/wives/children again.

It amazes me that with all these secret security services across the world, nobody has took out Kim Jong Un or Vladimir Putin.
 
Bole Top said:
no offence, but some of you are carried away a bit and are obviously learning about war from video games and Hollywood. this war has barely started, it isn't really an open conflict and Ukraine aren't some small primitive tribe from jungle. you don't conquer such country in 2 days. it says nothing about Russian army or technology in general as neither are really being used and most likely won't be. vast majority of their army won't even cross the border neither they're going to use their most destructive weapons to burn the cities to the ground. it's obvious that Putin planned to end this quickly & without really decimating the rest of the country, which is not working. but anyone who thinks this is all they are capable of is just being silly at this point.
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Yeah, agree. I noticed that too. Ukraine is a huge country, with solid army. You can't finish that war in 72 hours.
The problem could be if Putin starts to think that they are going slowly. Then he will do what he (i guess) wanted to avoid and that is storming in cities with tanks and soldiers. That would be bloodbath.
 
At this point one has to ask what Putin's end game is here. Even if he were to add Ukraine to Russia (unlikely given the insurgency that is going to happen), he has been castrated by sanctions back home to where Russia will be sent back to the dark ages. There's literally nothing he can do to change this, since even if he were to abruptly retreat tomorrow, the sanctions would remain in place and continue aggressively eroding Russia from within.
 
Raoul said:
At this point one has to ask what Putin's end game is here. Even if he were to add Ukraine to Russia (unlikely given the insurgency that is going to happen), he has been castrated by sanctions back home to where Russia will be sent back to the dark ages. There's literally nothing he can do to change this, since even if he were to abruptly retreat tomorrow, the sanctions would remain in place and continue aggressively eroding Russia from within.
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Do you think the West will hold onto the sanctions even if Putin does a full withdrawal? I wonder how far the West is willing to go.
 
VorZakone said:
Do you think the West will hold onto the sanctions even if Putin does a full withdrawal? I wonder how far the West is willing to go.
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Yes, because at this point the sanctions are no longer a reward for deescalation since Putin has already waged war. They will be used to further weaken him and eventually get him out of there.
 
Raoul said:
At this point one has to ask what Putin's end game is here. Even if he were to add Ukraine to Russia (unlikely given the insurgency that is going to happen), he has been castrated by sanctions back home to where Russia will be sent back to the dark ages. There's literally nothing he can do to change this, since even if he were to abruptly retreat tomorrow, the sanctions would remain in place and continue aggressively eroding Russia from within.
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My best guess is that he keeps biting bigger and bigger chunk of Ukraine (let's say 50% of it) and then sit at the table to negotiate terms and sanctions.

There is really no going back for him now.
 
VorZakone said:
Do you think the West will hold onto the sanctions even if Putin does a full withdrawal? I wonder how far the West is willing to go.
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the west will probably be making their decisions with an eventual regime changeover in mind. The phrase 20% of something is better than 100% of nothing springs to mind. If Russia ever wants a proper seat at the table again, the concessions they will have to make are ginormous. These sanctions have shown that the world is not scared to find alternative ways of living than through Russian commodities.
 
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