Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

I'm in the UK and this morning there's delays in online bank transactions, is that to do with what's going on with the Russian banks?
 
VP89 said:
A question from my end undoubtedly discussed in prior pages but I am trying to keep up.

If we assume the worst and Putin goes trigger happy on nuclear attacks, is there a chain of command or committee of sorts to put him in check? Seems really far fetched to have such key man risk operating in the world. I am sure the majority of Russians don't quite agree with his approach too. Or at least I would like to think this.
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It doesn't matter what the majority of Russians think. Not one jot.
 
Revan said:
The problem of somebody else is that there are likely hundreds of people who can launch nuclear weapons. Even if most of them refuse the order, it suffices one of them throwing a bomb, for a massive US retaliation which will mean a massive Russian counter-retaliation.

I am talking for a bomb hitting the West, not a tactical one in Ukrainian army, or one in Arctic to scare the West.

Considering that for most part Russia is not targeting civilians, and they still haven’t started using thermobaric bombs, I still think that we are a few steps away from the worst.
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I'm talking from a very hazy memory here but i don't think they can launch them without first being given a target by higher command and that won't be Putin who knows how to do all that. They literally have nothing to aim them at otherwise. They used to have a default target list during the Soviet era but they adapted their doctrine numerous times since then.
 
Whatever happens from now on, it will be very, very tough for Russian economy. I doubt that the talks will lead to something meaningful. Ukraine will not recognize Crimea as a part of Russia, nor will they consider the separatist areas as independent. Putin will not bow down either. He can probably wihdraw the troops, but sanctions will be there to stay. It really is amazing to see, how fast the West crippled Russia's economy. Their military support has also been priceless. Zelenskyy staying in the country is a heroic action. Hats off to everyone opposing the invasion of Ukraine.
 
Dans said:
It doesn't matter what the majority of Russians think. Not one jot.
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Yeah. I think we need to stop thinking about hypotheticals like Putin caring about his family dying, or Russian people dying or anything other than himself. Also a very slim chance that any of his command men are the type of people to defy his orders. If he really resorts to nukes, the only hope is that there is someone powerful enough in his inner circle to overthrow him. And that we do not know.
 
Water Melon said:
Whatever happens from now on, it will be very, very tough for Russian economy. I doubt that the talks will lead to something meaningful. Ukraine will not recognize Crimea as a part of Russia, nor will they consider the separatist areas as independent. Putin will not bow down either. He can probably wihdraw the troops, but sanctions will be there to stay. It really is amazing to see, how fast the West crippled Russia's economy. Their military support has also been priceless. Zelenskyy staying in the country is a heroic action. Hats off to everyone opposing the invasion of Ukraine.
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If he withdraws the troops, sanctions will be gone. He will not do that without getting anything and as you say, Ukraine will not back down. Part of me thinks under current circumstances the wise thing to do would be to recognize independence of Donetsk and Luzhansk, give Crimea back to Russia (I understand their population is mostly pro-Russian anyway) and get this over with. That would be something Putin could pitch as victory to his country, and in a way would be, but fighting over it may not be worth the loss of life. But obviously I may be talking dumb shit as they've been fighting over this for the last 8 years and to back down now would be wrong.

Then slowly work on removing him from his power, as his inner circle and oligarchs will have realized to what lengths he's willing to go to feed his ego.
 
Sarni said:
If he withdraws the troops, sanctions will be gone. He will not do that without getting anything and as you say, Ukraine will not back down. Part of me thinks under current circumstances the wise thing to do would be to recognize independence of Donetsk and Luzhansk, give Crimea back to Russia (I understand their population is mostly pro-Russian anyway) and get this over with. That would be something Putin could pitch as victory to his country, and in a way would be, but fighting over it may not be worth the loss of life. But obviously I may be talking dumb shit as they've been fighting over this for the last 8 years and to back down now would be wrong.

Then slowly work on removing him from his power, as his inner circle and oligarchs will have realized to what lengths he's willing to go to feed his ego.
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Will they and should they be? Lots of blame on west for allowing Putin to arm and prepare for full invasion for 8 years, guy has proved to be deranged, him stepping down should be bare minimum now before anything changes.

Also, cedeing any territory should be a no-no, saying Crimea is pro russian, is giving into their propaganda. There were no fair elections. As I said earlier in the topic, any pro-russian on Ukrainian soil can make couple mile trip eastwards and live in eternal harmony. Maybe they should start sending russian civilians in Kiev flats and in 5 years say, we don't want Ukraine here, Russia come help?
 
harms said:
Thanks for the tags, I don't have it in me to go through the thread thoroughly anymore, checking different news sources already takes too much time & emotional effort.

Just a few updates on the protests in Russia — they're still happening although we're looking with envy at the anti-war marches in Berlin and the likes. We can't even get together properly as any group with more than 10-20 people has a target on its back. Since the beginning of the protests more than 6000 people had been arrested, 2791+ people were detained yesterday alone. The court dates are postponed, most will get a fine after spending a day in detainment, some will get a week or two, those who got caught for a second/third time already look at significant time behind bars. If you've been seen reposting the date of the meeting/suggesting a movement direction for your group etc., you get a significant time as a riot organiser.

Many people are losing their jobs — something that I'll probably have to go through myself despite being lucky in evading police on the streets (it's really the new way of protesting in Russia, playing hide & seek with police on the streets while simultaneously trying to grab as much attention as possible). My boss called me yesterday and said that she has a direct request to fire anyone who had signed any anti-war letters & petitions although they haven't got to my name yet (they most likely will, it's public information). She was very sweet though and said that she'll resign herself if she won't be able to protect me or my colleagues that also signed the letter.

A few members of Russian Duma had voiced their disapproval of the war in Ukraine — most notably a few members of KPRF, Russian Communist party, that thought that their petition to recognise DNR & LNR's independence, that they had hoped would bring peace to the region (yeah, right), was used as a pretense for starting a war.

I find it hard to believe in positive change, Belarus' 2020 had destroyed whatever was left of my youthful optimism — and going to the protests doesn't give me any hope or closure, you do it because someone has to. But who knows...
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Stay safe pal. We appreciate all the efforts from within. It’s a shame that great pain will come to the normal Russian people through economics and death of sons in the army.
all because of one man
 
Water Melon said:
Whatever happens from now on, it will be very, very tough for Russian economy. I doubt that the talks will lead to something meaningful. Ukraine will not recognize Crimea as a part of Russia, nor will they consider the separatist areas as independent. Putin will not bow down either. He can probably wihdraw the troops, but sanctions will be there to stay. It really is amazing to see, how fast the West crippled Russia's economy. Their military support has also been priceless. Zelenskyy staying in the country is a heroic action. Hats off to everyone opposing the invasion of Ukraine.
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May be a really ignorant question by me but if they did withdraw their troops why would the sanctions remain in place?
 
Sarni said:
If he withdraws the troops, sanctions will be gone. He will not do that without getting anything and as you say, Ukraine will not back down. Part of me thinks under current circumstances the wise thing to do would be to recognize independence of Donetsk and Luzhansk, give Crimea back to Russia (I understand their population is mostly pro-Russian anyway) and get this over with. That would be something Putin could pitch as victory to his country, and in a way would be, but fighting over it may not be worth the loss of life. But obviously I may be talking dumb shit as they've been fighting over this for the last 8 years and to back down now would be wrong.

Then slowly work on removing him from his power, as his inner circle and oligarchs will have realized to what lengths he's willing to go to feed his ego.
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So he gets a lot of things he wants? Wouldn’t that justify his actions to him/generals/Russian public, make him more popular and potentially give him encouragement to do something similar again?
 
Sarni said:
Yeah. I think we need to stop thinking about hypotheticals like Putin caring about his family dying, or Russian people dying or anything other than himself. Also a very slim chance that any of his command men are the type of people to defy his orders. If he really resorts to nukes, the only hope is that there is someone powerful enough in his inner circle to overthrow him. And that we do not know.
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I think people should stop freaking out about the nukes. It's one thing for Putin to waive them around as a threat, but to actually use one of them against the west would be as good as simultaneously using one of their own in Moscow. Now if Putin told his generals to nuke their own City, do you think they would do that? I'll believe that when it happens.

This isn't even an existential threat against Russia itself. The west has zero intention to even step on Russian soil. So when it comes to it do you think the Russian command (as in generals and others who would have to facilitate the use of nukes) would rather see their own country, with all their families in it, laid to ashes than retreat and perhaps regroup, try again another time?
 
Jippy said:
You posted this already at 7:24am and it had already been posted already more than once.
Please try and avoid spamming with repeat posts.
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You mean that exact tweet or a tweet about the ruble? I looked back but I didn't find a duplicate post quoting this specific tweet by myself.
 
Sarni said:
If he withdraws the troops, sanctions will be gone. He will not do that without getting anything and as you say, Ukraine will not back down. Part of me thinks under current circumstances the wise thing to do would be to recognize independence of Donetsk and Luzhansk, give Crimea back to Russia (I understand their population is mostly pro-Russian anyway) and get this over with. That would be something Putin could pitch as victory to his country, and in a way would be, but fighting over it may not be worth the loss of life. But obviously I may be talking dumb shit as they've been fighting over this for the last 8 years and to back down now would be wrong.

Then slowly work on removing him from his power, as his inner circle and oligarchs will have realized to what lengths he's willing to go to feed his ego.
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On what basis? And please don't just say because they speak Russian, because there is no more ignorant assumption about Ukraine right now as assuming Russian native speakers in Ukraine are Russian, want to be independent from Ukraine and/or want to be part of Russia. It's about as stupid as thinking that all English-speakers in Wales and Ireland aren't Welsh and Irish and want to be part of England.
 
Mike Smalling said:
Isn't this extremely risky? Given Putin's rhetoric about the Ukrainian leadership, I wouldn't rule out anything.
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Not that much, attacking a diplomatic delegation would have massive consequences. Even in the nastiest wars it rarely happened.
 
ShoePolish said:
Will they and should they be? Lots of blame on west for allowing Putin to arm and prepare for full invasion for 8 years, guy has proved to be deranged, him stepping down should be bare minimum now before anything changes.

Also, cedeing any territory should be a no-no, saying Crimea is pro russian, is giving into their propaganda. There were no fair elections. As I said earlier in the topic, any pro-russian on Ukrainian soil can make couple mile trip eastwards and live in eternal harmony. Maybe they should start sending russian civilians in Kiev flats and in 5 years say, we don't want Ukraine here, Russia come help?
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They shouldn't be but they will be in a short time.
 
Oly Francis said:
Not that much, attacking a diplomatic delegation would have massive consequences. Even in the nastiest wars it rarely happened.
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Hope you are right. I just see a situation where the Russians would create a lie about Ukraine being the aggressor in the meeting, and that they were forced into arresting them, or something similar.
 
Mike Smalling said:
Hope you are right. I just see a situation where the Russians would create a lie about Ukraine being the aggressor in the meeting, and that they were forced into arresting them, or something similar.
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No doubt the US is also monitoring it and told Russia not to do any shenanigans.
 
Rooney24 said:
To make sure he doesnt do it again.
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I am not sure I follow how that works.

If I was a mad evil world leader I would take the view that if I am going to continue to be punished either way then I may as well do what I want to do. I know the sanctions could get worse but if they have the effect of forcing the government to do the right thing then I don't understand continuing to punish innocent Russian people (a lot of which have protested and made it clear this isn't a war they want). Obviously this may be naïve from me and I may be missing some context.
 
do.ob said:
I think people should stop freaking out about the nukes. It's one thing for Putin to waive them around as a threat, but to actually use one of them against the west would be as good as simultaneously using one of their own in Moscow. Now if Putin told his generals to nuke their own City, do you think they would do that? I'll believe that when it happens.

This isn't even an existential threat against Russia itself. The west has zero intention to even step on Russian soil. So when it comes to it do you think the Russian command (as in generals and others who would have to facilitate the use of nukes) would rather see their own country, with all their families in it, laid to ashes than retreat and perhaps regroup, try again another time?
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Great post. As good as killing yourself.

Putin is apparently terrified of covid but doesn’t mind dying from nuclear war if cornered. Just look at some of the front pages of the news today in the tabloids with complete fearmongering.

Bojo, Biden and Macron would never let it come to that point and would not be trying to strangle Russia economically if they feared it was a viable response from Moscow.
 
Smithy89 said:
Speaks so much better than Boris, hit the nail on the head as well. It's always somebody else's child going to war. Not the big wig rich or politicians who instigate and start these wars.
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Completely agree. He would be very well-suited to the job of PM at this current time in my opinion. Shame.
 
Are Ukraine willing to give up Donetsk, Luhansk and Crimea?
I'm not talking about whether or not it's the right thing to do, but it might be what's needed for the war to end, and I think that's an end-game Putin might be content with.
 
Smithy89 said:
Speaks so much better than Boris, hit the nail on the head as well. It's always somebody else's child going to war. Not the big wig rich or politicians who instigate and start these wars.
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On the other hand, he insists on calling it the Ukraine time and time again, which Ukrainians are frequently affronted by.

Skåre Willoch said:
Are Ukraine willing to give up Donetsk, Luhansk and Crimea?
I'm not talking about whether or not it's the right thing to do, but it might be what's needed for the war to end, and I think that's an end-game Putin might be content with.
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No. Next.
 
GDaly95 said:
Completely agree. He would be very well-suited to the job of PM at this current time in my opinion. Shame.
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Sadly the older generation and other pockets of people over here didn't want to give him a chance. I know people also had concerns over his opinion towards military which i sort of understand.
 
Smithy89 said:
Sadly the older generation and other pockets of people over here didn't want to give him a chance. I know people also had concerns over his opinion towards military which i sort of understand.
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Corbyn was never able to compromise or act politically. His principles came first come what may. Unfortunately that is not the way to win elections. I won't relitigate all of the issues but he was his own worst enemy.
 
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