Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

This Twitter account is well worth a follow for updates on Russian state TV.



Classical Mechanic said:
What's his negotiated political settlement that's palatable to both the Russians and Ukranians?
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You don't need one when you can never hope to command a majority to actually have a chance of proposing and implementing it on the international stage.
 
Frosty said:
Corbyn was never able to compromise or act politically. His principles came first come what may. Unfortunately that is not the way to win elections. I won't relitigate all of the issues but he was his own worst enemy.
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Yeah i was going to say, he would have been tough to deal with when it came to certain issues and he might have alienated a lot of allies.
 
TMDaines said:
You don't need one when you can never hope to command a majority to actually have a chance of proposing and implementing it on the international stage.
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You do need one for the wars to end, though.

Edit: Sorry, misunderstood the post. You were talking about Corbyns chance of proposing it on the international stage, at first I thought you meant Russia/Ukraine didn't need a political settlement.
 
What is it about Russia that makes it particularly susceptible to authoritarian rule?

They only managed a couple real democratic election in the last 100 years or so (1991). I believe 1996 was rigged by Yeltsin, and I'm not sure about Putin's first 2 elections.
 
Sarni said:
If he withdraws the troops, sanctions will be gone. He will not do that without getting anything and as you say, Ukraine will not back down. Part of me thinks under current circumstances the wise thing to do would be to recognize independence of Donetsk and Luzhansk, give Crimea back to Russia (I understand their population is mostly pro-Russian anyway) and get this over with. That would be something Putin could pitch as victory to his country, and in a way would be, but fighting over it may not be worth the loss of life. But obviously I may be talking dumb shit as they've been fighting over this for the last 8 years and to back down now would be wrong.

Then slowly work on removing him from his power, as his inner circle and oligarchs will have realized to what lengths he's willing to go to feed his ego.
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If Zelenskyy recognizes Crimea as part of Russia and gives Donetsk and Luhansk away, he will lose all the credibility in the eyes of Ukranian citizens. It will mean a defeat for them. Mass protests will follow. Zelenskyy will never ever win any election. They are in war, and they hate Putin. After everything that Putin said and did, I doubt the sanctions will be lifted even if he withdraws the troops.
 
OverratedOpinion said:
May be a really ignorant question by me but if they did withdraw their troops why would the sanctions remain in place?
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Because they have already killed people, Ukraine has no sovereignity in Putin's eyes and the fecker has started using the nuclear arms card. It will not go unnoticed and should not.
 
harms said:
Thanks for the tags, I don't have it in me to go through the thread thoroughly anymore, checking different news sources already takes too much time & emotional effort.

Just a few updates on the protests in Russia — they're still happening although we're looking with envy at the anti-war marches in Berlin and the likes. We can't even get together properly as any group with more than 10-20 people has a target on its back. Since the beginning of the protests more than 6000 people had been arrested, 2791+ people were detained yesterday alone. The court dates are postponed, most will get a fine after spending a day in detainment, some will get a week or two, those who got caught for a second/third time already look at significant time behind bars. If you've been seen reposting the date of the meeting/suggesting a movement direction for your group etc., you get a significant time as a riot organiser.

Many people are losing their jobs — something that I'll probably have to go through myself despite being lucky in evading police on the streets (it's really the new way of protesting in Russia, playing hide & seek with police on the streets while simultaneously trying to grab as much attention as possible). My boss called me yesterday and said that she has a direct request to fire anyone who had signed any anti-war letters & petitions although they haven't got to my name yet (they most likely will, it's public information). She was very sweet though and said that she'll resign herself if she won't be able to protect me or my colleagues that also signed the letter.

A few members of Russian Duma had voiced their disapproval of the war in Ukraine — most notably a few members of KPRF, Russian Communist party, that thought that their petition to recognise DNR & LNR's independence, that they had hoped would bring peace to the region (yeah, right), was used as a pretense for starting a war.

I find it hard to believe in positive change, Belarus' 2020 had destroyed whatever was left of my youthful optimism — and going to the protests doesn't give me any hope or closure, you do it because someone has to. But who knows...
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That takes a lot of courage and balls to do what you are doing harms. Respect.
 
Skills said:
What is it about Russia that makes it particularly susceptible to authoritarian rule?

They only managed a couple real democratic election in the last 100 years or so (1991). I believe 1996 was rigged by Yeltsin, and I'm not sure about Putin's first 2 elections.
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Privatization in the 90s resulted in a small elite getting control over many former state companies, hence the oligarchy. And former security services members tightened their control over the government. I think that's why the country has a hard time getting out of this authoritarian setup.
 
Skåre Willoch said:
You do need one for the wars to end, though.

Edit: Sorry, misunderstood the post. You were talking about Corbyns chance of proposing it on the international stage, at first I thought you meant Russia/Ukraine.
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If he really wants to be a thought leader on the conflict then he neads to delineate a path towards a peaceful settlement rather than just saying there should be one, which is what the vast majority of people think anyway.
 
Water Melon said:
If Zelenskyy recognizes Crimea as part of Russia and gives Donetsk and Luhansk away, he will lose all the credibility in the eyes of Ukranian citizens. Mass protests will follow. Zelenskyy will never ever win any election. They are in war, and they hate Putin. After everything that Putin said and did, I doubt the sanctions will be lifted even if he withdraws the troops.
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I agree with @Sarni here. I don't see any other way out of this mess.

Also, the very last thing Zelenskyy should be thinking about (and I really doubt he's thinking about it at all), is the next election.
 
Water Melon said:
If Zelenskyy recognizes Crimea as part of Russia and gives Donetsk and Luhansk away, he will lose all the credibility in the eyes of Ukranian citizens. Mass protests will follow. Zelenskyy will never ever win any election. They are in war, and they hate Putin. After everything that Putin said and did, I doubt the sanctions will be lifted even if he withdraws the troops.
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What if Russia’s offer is do this, or we start throwing thermobaric bombs and possibly tactical nukes?

Zelensky is not a career politician, and I doubt he cares about elections. If that is on the table, who knows what happens.

I don’t see how Putin retreats without getting anything in return. Which leaves someone ousting him (no indications that might happen), some settlement with Ukraine, total destruction of Ukraine, and nuclear war as options.
 
Revan said:
What if Russia’s offer is do this, or we start throwing thermobaric bombs and possibly tactical nukes?

Zelensky is not a career politician, and I doubt he cares about elections. If that is on the table, who knows what happens.

I don’t see how Putin retreats without getting anything in return. Which leaves someone ousting him (no indications that might happen), some settlement with Ukraine, total destruction of Ukraine, and nuclear war as options.
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Start using thermobaric weapons and tactical nukes and you see NATO getting involved as those weapons cause genocide and responsibility to protect under the UN charter kicks in. If Putin is bent on getting something significant, he needs to give something significant up. He is the one who is losing eveything minute by minute and he is the one who started the bloody war. No major country in the world ever recognized either the results of the Crimea elections or LDP and DNP.
 
Skåre Willoch said:
I agree with @Sarni here. I don't see any other way out of this mess.

Also, the very last thing Zelenskyy should be thinking about (and I really doubt he's thinking about it at all), is the next election.
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Revan said:
What if Russia’s offer is do this, or we start throwing thermobaric bombs and possibly tactical nukes?

Zelensky is not a career politician, and I doubt he cares about elections. If that is on the table, who knows what happens.

I don’t see how Putin retreats without getting anything in return. Which leaves someone ousting him (no indications that might happen), some settlement with Ukraine, total destruction of Ukraine, and nuclear war as options.
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Well now that it's been pointed out clearly to me, and seems to be familiar with sentiments of Ukrainians I know, that would probably be a defeat for Ukraine. My issue is I do not see this ending with Russia getting nothing, and they've been fighting over that territory for 8 years, I do not see this ending anytime soon. There really does not seem any realistic good way out of it. It's not like Russia will back down.
 
Smithy89 said:
Aren't a lot of the Russians in that part of the Ukraine not happy with the invasion and haven't backed Putin like he expected.
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I don't think many if any western reporters get a chance to go there and let the world know what's going on there, so largely info about those regions will be coming out of russian media. Same with Crimea, ever since it was annexed, I don't think any western outlet has made a piece on life there, just different reports from different organizations.
 
GDaly95 said:
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Corbyn is the teenager's idea of a politician. He's an absolute heavyweight when it comes to nice words and absolute amateur when it comes to actually getting results.

He would have tried to negotiate with Hitler and complained about both sides when the Nazis were at the door.
 
Water Melon said:
Start using thermobaric weapons and tactical nukes and you see NATO involving as it means genocide and responsibility to protect under the UN charter kicks in.
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Yeah and when nukes start flying about we are all toast.

Why does that weapon exist and why the feck would anyone have 6 thousand of them. It's absolutely ridiculous.

Considering Krakow is rather meaningless in military or economic terms I would probably be spared (+ I live 12 km from city center), but feck me if I had to live in evaporated world where all major cities are gone, there's no economy and probably no food either.
 
Water Melon said:
If Zelenskyy recognizes Crimea as part of Russia and gives Donetsk and Luhansk away, he will lose all the credibility in the eyes of Ukranian citizens. It will mean a defeat for them. Mass protests will follow. Zelenskyy will never ever win any election. They are in war, and they hate Putin. After everything that Putin said and did, I doubt the sanctions will be lifted even if he withdraws the troops.
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Exactly. There is no chance they fight this doggedly for Ukraine only to give part of it away to a retreating enemy.
Some guarantees about not joining NATO and such might satisfy both sides. I can’t see how giving parts of Ukraine over would even work since that’s not what Putin wanted anyway.
 
Rightnr said:
Corbyn is the teenager's idea of a politician. He's an absolutely heavyweight when it comes to nice words and absolute amateur when it comes to actually getting results.

He would have tried to negotiate with Hitler and complained about both sides when the Nazis were at the door.
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His order for nuclear submarine captains would have been to surrender to Russians if they nuke London.
 
Water Melon said:
Because they have already killed people, Ukraine has no sovereignity in Putin's eyes and the fecker has started using the nuclear arms card. It will not go unnoticed and should not.
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It makes sense, I just think that means that the current sanctions will then be no motivator for Putin to call back his troops.

I understand that the hope is that the citizens of Russia see the situation Putin has caused and start a new revolution, this would be great and probably the best long term outcome but who knows how long that could take. I saw the sanctions as a great bargaining chip that could be offered to Putin once the pressure from his people increases to say "you can end all this, just withdraw your troops now" seems like a quicker way to stop people dying and then tackle the problem of Putin still being in power once the immediate crisis is over.

That said, I am fundamentally ignorant with world politics.
 
Sarni said:
Yeah and when nukes start flying about we are all toast.

Why does that weapon exist and why the feck would anyone have 6 thousand of them. It's absolutely ridiculous.

Considering Krakow is rather meaningless in military or economic terms I would probably be spared, but feck me if I had to live in evaporated world where all major cities are gone, there's no economy and probably no food either.
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I mentioned this yesterday or Saturday, nobody should have nukes nevermind thousands of them.
 
Smithy89 said:
Speaks so much better than Boris, hit the nail on the head as well. It's always somebody else's child going to war. Not the big wig rich or politicians who instigate and start these wars.
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GDaly95 said:
Completely agree. He would be very well-suited to the job of PM at this current time in my opinion. Shame.
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I agree with a lot of what he says from an ideological standpoint, but no, he’s not the person I’d want in charge right now. Lord knows I don’t want that moron Bojo, but the issue with Corbyn is that he so idealistic, he prioritises accuracy over plausibility. What would he actually do, other than ask for peace? I don’t think anyone wants a war with Russia but for me, Corbyn is the epitome of political impotence. He sounds great as a university lecturer, but in the harsh reality of the actual world, on the world stage, he’s a lamb to the slaughter.

I firmly believe there’s a middle ground. Because as much as what happens on the world stage is utterly deplorable, it still happens. You can’t control the actions of other countries and leaders. And at times you have to get tough in the name of national or regional interests. Voices like his are vital and I have a lot of respect for him, but I can’t imagine him as PM anymore than I could imagine Bojo. He’s like a box of wet tissues.
 
Shakesey said:
I've just scanned over a few Putin news articles from 2021. I thought I'd be able to see him making veiled threats if he knew he was going to invade.

Yet, in June Biden and Putin released a joint statement saying, "...the United States and Russia have demonstrated that, even in periods of tension, they are able to make progress on our shared goals of ensuring predictability in the strategic sphere, reducing the risk of armed conflicts and the threat of nuclear war."

That same month an an in-depth interview with an American journalist Putin said, "...if you ask my opinion now, I am telling you what it is. The most important value in international affairs is predictability and stability."

I just read a few articles, but to me it doesn't look as if Putin has been planning this war for a long time... Maybe he isn't really so strategic and analytical, but rather impulsive and emotional?
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Putin himself published an article titled “On the historical unity of Russians and Ukrainians” in article summer 2021 - I posted a link earlier in the thread but the Kremlin website is currently down so can’t access it here. But you can read an analysis of it here -https://www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacj...icle-historical-unity-russians-and-ukrainians
 
OverratedOpinion said:
It makes sense, I just think that means that the current sanctions will then be no motivator for Putin to call back his troops.

I understand that the hope is that the citizens of Russia see the situation Putin has caused and start a new revolution, this would be great and probably the best long term outcome but who knows how long that could take. I saw the sanctions as a great bargaining chip that could be offered to Putin once the pressure from his people increases to say "you can end all this, just withdraw your troops now" seems like a quicker way to stop people dying and then tackle the problem of Putin still being in power once the immediate crisis is over.

That said, I am fundamentally ignorant with world politics.
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The sanctions are there not to motivate Putin, but to force him. Withdrawing troops on Putin's terms implies giviving away some territories that the Ukranian people died for. Do not see that happening personally.
 
harms said:
Thanks for the tags, I don't have it in me to go through the thread thoroughly anymore, checking different news sources already takes too much time & emotional effort.

Just a few updates on the protests in Russia — they're still happening although we're looking with envy at the anti-war marches in Berlin and the likes. We can't even get together properly as any group with more than 10-20 people has a target on its back. Since the beginning of the protests more than 6000 people had been arrested, 2791+ people were detained yesterday alone. The court dates are postponed, most will get a fine after spending a day in detainment, some will get a week or two, those who got caught for a second/third time already look at significant time behind bars. If you've been seen reposting the date of the meeting/suggesting a movement direction for your group etc., you get a significant time as a riot organiser.

Many people are losing their jobs — something that I'll probably have to go through myself despite being lucky in evading police on the streets (it's really the new way of protesting in Russia, playing hide & seek with police on the streets while simultaneously trying to grab as much attention as possible). My boss called me yesterday and said that she has a direct request to fire anyone who had signed any anti-war letters & petitions although they haven't got to my name yet (they most likely will, it's public information). She was very sweet though and said that she'll resign herself if she won't be able to protect me or my colleagues that also signed the letter.

A few members of Russian Duma had voiced their disapproval of the war in Ukraine — most notably a few members of KPRF, Russian Communist party, that thought that their petition to recognise DNR & LNR's independence, that they had hoped would bring peace to the region (yeah, right), was used as a pretense for starting a war.

I find it hard to believe in positive change, Belarus' 2020 had destroyed whatever was left of my youthful optimism — and going to the protests doesn't give me any hope or closure, you do it because someone has to. But who knows...
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Красава. Респект.
 
OverratedOpinion said:
I am not sure I follow how that works.

If I was a mad evil world leader I would take the view that if I am going to continue to be punished either way then I may as well do what I want to do. I know the sanctions could get worse but if they have the effect of forcing the government to do the right thing then I don't understand continuing to punish innocent Russian people (a lot of which have protested and made it clear this isn't a war they want). Obviously this may be naïve from me and I may be missing some context.
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I think the idea is to cripple him economically so that he cant fund this a second time around. The perception is that he has been building up to this for years, certainly at least since they annexed Crimea, with the Russian economy funding the build up.

If you take that away (or at least severely damage it) he wont be able to do it again. I could be wrong but I think that would be the approach.
 
Putin is essentially stuffed surely?

As rigged as what their elections are or however he stays in power (threats no doubt), I can’t see the Russian PEOPLE happy with what he’s dragged them into

He’s made a hash of this war he’s started on Ukraine, many Russian Soldiers have died, they don’t look like winning anytime too soon, which could result in dirty tactics…..war is dirty, but there are war crimes to be committed that can make it dirtier which a lot of the time is through desperation and too win, which will only make matter worse for Putin and the Russians perception of him.

I just think this move on Ukraine and how it’s panning out will only end with the end of Putin

obviously not guaranteed but that’s just how I see it at this stage and I hope too god I’m right, preferably someone would whack him but more realistically Russia goes into civil chaos and oust him, which won’t be a pleasant process for the people of Russia, nothing as unpleasant than what the Russian Government has put Ukraine through of course, but nonetheless unpleasant
 
simonhch said:
I agree with a lot of what he says from an ideological standpoint, but no, he’s not the person I’d want in charge right now. Lord knows I don’t want that moron Bojo, but the issue with Corbyn is that he so idealistic, he prioritises accuracy over plausibility. What would he actually do, other than ask for peace? I don’t think anyone wants a war with Russia but for me, Corbyn is the epitome of political impotence. He sounds great as a university lecturer, but in the harsh reality of the actual world, on the world stage, he’s a lamb to the slaughter.

I firmly believe there’s a middle ground. Because as much as what happens on the world stage is utterly deplorable, it still happens. You can’t control the actions of other countries and leaders. And at times you have to get tough in the name of national or regional interests. Voices like his are vital and I have a lot of respect for him, but I can’t imagine him as PM anymore than I could imagine Bojo. He’s like a box of wet tissues.
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Don't really disagree with this, Corbyn and his socialist ways and ideas sound nice on paper but i do agree he's better off on the outskirts of pollitics or giving lectures etc. I liked him but had my reservations about him on many things. Like you said i just couldn't stand Bojo and his tory cronies which had me more with Corbyn.
 
Water Melon said:
The sanctions are there not to motivate Putin, but to force him. Withdraw troops on Putin's terms implies giviving away some territories that the Ukranian people died for. Do not see that happening personally.
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However you word it, the fundamental point remains the same though surely?

"We are placing sanctions on your country until you do what we want"

"Okay will you remove the sanctions if I do what you want?"

"No"

"So why would I do it?"

Putin definitely deserves to be punished in the harshest possible way, he is literally a war criminal. I just don't see how you get past the above.
 
Sarni said:
If he withdraws the troops, sanctions will be gone. He will not do that without getting anything and as you say, Ukraine will not back down. Part of me thinks under current circumstances the wise thing to do would be to recognize independence of Donetsk and Luzhansk, give Crimea back to Russia (I understand their population is mostly pro-Russian anyway) and get this over with. That would be something Putin could pitch as victory to his country, and in a way would be, but fighting over it may not be worth the loss of life. But obviously I may be talking dumb shit as they've been fighting over this for the last 8 years and to back down now would be wrong.

Then slowly work on removing him from his power, as his inner circle and oligarchs will have realized to what lengths he's willing to go to feed his ego.
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Doubt all the sanctions would be gone, some would be removed but not all of them. We're talking relationships beyond repair here between countries, so even if they withdraw all troops it's not going to repair the damage they've caused.

Big companies are pulling pretty much everything they can, dumping projects etc. This will have long lasting consequences for Russia.
 
Water Melon said:
If Zelenskyy recognizes Crimea as part of Russia and gives Donetsk and Luhansk away, he will lose all the credibility in the eyes of Ukranian citizens. It will mean a defeat for them. Mass protests will follow. Zelenskyy will never ever win any election. They are in war, and they hate Putin. After everything that Putin said and did, I doubt the sanctions will be lifted even if he withdraws the troops.
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It will be interesting to see how this all plays out in terms of Zelenskyy's continuing leadership. Initially, he stated he was going to be a single term President, but has since backtracked a little on that. Being a peacetime leader and seeking re-election after a war isn't always easy though. Sometimes the general/presidential elections are a great war suggest people want to move on from it, even if the wartime leader was respected for their role.

You are right on there being zero appetite for the Donbas and Crimea being conceded though.. Getting Crimea out of Russian hands without a real escalation in direct military involvement from the West seems very difficult right now. I could see Donbas given special status within Ukraine, similar to what Crimea had previously, where the Russian language has official status too. Ukraine, regardless, will be on the express path towards EU and NATO membership now though unless the country becomes occupied. The problem with all this is that there is no just reason why Ukraine should concede anything, and whatever you give Putin will not be enough except Ukraine becoming another Belarus.
 
OverratedOpinion said:
However you word it, the fundamental point remains the same though surely?

"We are placing sanctions on your country until you do what we want"

"Okay will you remove the sanctions if I do what you want?"

"No"

"So why would I do it?"

Putin definitely deserves to be punished in the harshest possible way, he is literally a war criminal. I just don't see how you get past the above.
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Some sanctions will obviously be removed If Putin withdraws Russias forces, probably a carrot under the table as well in terms of financial aid.
 
Rooney24 said:
I think the idea is to cripple him economically so that he cant fund this a second time around. The perception is that he has been building up to this for years, certainly at least since they annexed Crimea, with the Russian economy funding the build up.

If you take that away (or at least severely damage it) he wont be able to do it again. I could be wrong but I think that would be the approach.
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From what I have read he can fund this for an awfully long time, meaning hundreds of thousands or even more could die.

Surely if we have the carrot of removing the sanctions it is worth using if it can stop this now? Surely that is the priority.

Now I do not believe that will be enough for him, I think he will ask for Ukrainian concessions that are beyond what they would sanely view as acceptable. Still it is worth having the carrot to offer once his citizens begin ramping up the pressure due to dire financial situations.
 
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