Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

Smores said:
It isn't for the sake of balance. We left them massively exposed and we can say but yeah we're not that bad guy here but that doesn't change anything.

If you enter into talks with NATO you should be under NATO protection. They wouldn't have been invaded had we done so.
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This was the point I was trying to make. How does a country in this part of the world safely go about the journey of joining the NATO and EU without merely becoming a target for Russian interference and invasion in the meantime? Once we extend the hand out, don’t we take on some further obligation to them?

I’m one of the people who have been most obviously wearing the Ukrainian part of my heart on my sleeve here, so I’m definitely not trying to be contrarian.
 
Red Dreams said:
If there is an agreement, things will go back to normal as much as it can do.
The Russians will decide who they want to lead their country.
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This would probably require a toppling of the government similar to the 1917 revolution. Many lives will also be lost in that process
 
11101 said:
An operating reactor is also more much dangerous than a shutdown one so i hope Ukraine is not running them right now.
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Think about half of the electricity in ukraine is generated from their 15 nuclear reactors

Almost half of these reactors are in one plant ... So I'd guess they pretty much have to keep them running
 
Red Dreams said:
If there is an agreement, things will go back to normal as much as it can do.
The Russians will decide who they want to lead their country.
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No, there is no normalisation as long as Putin stays in power. This is not Crimea 2014 - there is a clear shift in European attitudes with even Germany reversing 80 years of pacifism. Until he goes, they will be treated as a pariah.

As for the Russians deciding who leads their country, I don’t think that has ever genuinely happened once in their entire history (even in the 90s). The next leader will be the choice of the ruling clique of siloviki and energy sector interests.
 
ChaddyP said:
This would probably require a toppling of the government similar to the 1917 revolution. Many lives will also be lost in that process
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I do not think it will be that similar at all.
There is a power structure.

Russia depends on trade with the West. Putin knows this. He is gambling on the West blinking first.

Others want to go back to some form of 'normality'. Hopefully they persuade him.
 
Red Dreams said:
In Putin's speech he referred to the 1918 treaty and the regions that were part of the old Russian empire.
That was his so called 'reason'.

Its clear this is his big 'push back' to the West.

What the US and the West now have to think about is how get back to 'normalization' of some sort.
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If you take the time to read this guys historical posts about Russias genocides and invasions the last 100-150 years, you will see that they did not sit quietly in the boat after 1918.

This is a few of the examples of Russias behaviour after 1918. There are more posts like this if you scroll. There is a pattern and it goes way back, and Putin is continuing this now.
 
Rightnr said:
We agree on a lot but I'm curious how do you think Putin gets removed? The old-fashioned way?

Is it through secret service back channels or through applying pressure on those around him? Seems like the much-despised weakness and lack of backbone (by Putin) is just as present at the top of the Putin regime as it is in the much-despised West.
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Putin is well known to have been spooked by the spectacle of Qaddafi's public demise. Short of someone within his inner circle taking matters into their own hands, I think there's a legit chance he could go down like this.

 
MoskvaRed said:
No, there is no normalisation as long as Putin stays in power. This is not Crimea 2014 - there is a clear shift in European attitudes with even Germany reversing 80 years of pacifism. Until he goes, they will be treated as a pariah.

As for the Russians deciding who leads their country, I don’t think that has ever genuinely happened once in their entire history (even in the 90s). The next leader will be the choice of the ruling clique of siloviki and energy sector interests.
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I agree.

I worded it poorly.
 
Red Dreams said:
I do not think it will be that similar at all.
There is a power structure.

Russia depends on trade with the West. Putin knows this. He is gambling on the West blinking first.

Others want to go back to some form of 'normality'. Hopefully they persuade him.
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Who is in his orbit to pursuade him?
 
Red Dreams said:
Are you seriously saying we can dictate that he be removed?
Even if internally the consensus there is they want Putin removed, do you think Russia will accept our dictates?
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That's precisely what the sanctions are designed to do.
 
NoLogo said:
These pesky Ukrainian neo-Nazis building houses in the flight path of his bombs, tatata. :nono:
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If you look at it from another angle, those Ukrainians really do use civilians as a human shield. It's just that they are that human shield :(
 
Red Dreams said:
Where in those sanctions does it say he needs to be removed?
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They don't say it outright, but the impact will incentivize his removal due to the chaos they cause within Russia. They could of course also be a valuable tool if Putin decides to capitulate because he wants to remain alive, which would then be a basis for negotiating a withdrawal in exchange for a phases removal of sanctions.
 
stefan92 said:
Of course. It is absolutely the right of the NATO to encircle Russia and it is the right of Russia to be pissed about it (to be clear: not the right to wage war because of it).

But the point is, it was a deliberate decision by the old NATO members to include East Europe and apply pressure on Russia, it is not a decision unilaterally made by the newer members, but some people make it sound like that here, and thst is just wrong.
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But why would Russia be pissed off about countries wanting to join a defensive alliance if they are a peaceful nation and have no plans to invade those countries...

...oh wait.
 
Raoul said:
They don't say it outright, but the impact will incentivize his removal due to the chaos they cause within Russia. They could of course also be a valuable tool if Putin decides to capitulate because he wants to stay alive, which would then be a basis for negotiating a withdrawal in exchange for a phases removal of sanctions.
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Well of course.

I mentioned 'loss of face'.
Lets remember that whoever ends up leading Russia would not want to be seen as weak.
Submitting.

It has to look on the surface at least as a win win.
 
Red Dreams said:
The US and the West should never have enticed Ukraine about joining NATO.
It was directly threatening to Russia.

Non military benefits should not have been conditional on Ukraine joining NATO.
No one can justify Putin invading Ukraine.
But lets not pretend the West did not have a huge role in what is happening now.
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Go away and take your stupid lies with you.
 
Unbelievable what’s happening inside Russia itself.

Non state run media being shut down with parliament to pass a law that anyone spreading misinformation about the war to face 15 years in prison.

That’s to go along side anyone protesting or speaking openly against the war to face 6-8 years.

The whole country is being oppressed here and the irony is Putin speaks about De-Nazification of the Ukraine… the whole thing is fecked. I don’t see any way back for Russia led by Putin now. The sanctions in place have crippled the Ruble and as @harms pointed out are having an impact on the Russian people already; they’ll only get harsher and more impactful.

You can’t help but feel something is going to break from within.
 
Ananke said:
Funny how you haven't mentioned Putin's huge role. "I can't justify Putin invading Russia...but it's mainly the wests fault" right...

If you were thinking about putting a headguard on, can I punch you in the face before you do and say you had a huge role in my actions?
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:lol:
 
Red Dreams said:
@Cardboard elk

Thanks.

But I was saying Putin is using that treaty as his dateline to start from Russia giving up what was theirs.

As I said it was his so called 'reason'.
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Yes I understand that you meant that :) It is just that he has no limits, Russia in the old days did not either. If he got everything from 1918 he would just invent another reason to even grab more land.
 
sun_tzu said:
TBF they will be killed long before they actually have to fight... Probably pretty brutally by their own side and then their tortured bodies will be proof of the neo Nazi drug addict ukranian war crimes forcing putin to have to use chemical weapons / tactical nukes for the greater good...
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I see you have the requisite tactical nous to join the Federal Security Services! Big brother Vlad is tied of working with those who lack such vision.
 
Red Dreams said:
The US and the West should never have enticed Ukraine about joining NATO.
It was directly threatening to Russia.

Non military benefits should not have been conditional on Ukraine joining NATO.
No one can justify Putin invading Ukraine.
But lets not pretend the West did not have a huge role in what is happening now.
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As soon as the Ukrainians voted out Putin's Stooge and elected a guy that wasn't being bought, Putin made the decision to take Ukraine over. Unless the EU/Nato had something to do with that election, this is more about Putins reaction to him losing his puppet than anything else. Plus Putin took over crimea while it was under the watch of his stooge, so its not like he didn't have this plan before
 
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