Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

Well I didn't mean the factories would become sentient, it's the employees who will steal them.

Or is it funny because security is too tight? Or most stolen goods are taken in transit? Or are Microsoft computers made in Malaysia?

I must know.

No it's funny because microsoft softwares are and will continue to be widely pirated and free or close to it. The tablets will be sold online as long as russian's customs don't prevent it. Microsoft knows it and think that people are complete idiots with their bogus PR stunt. Also it's a perfect opportunity for people to ditch Microsoft products and go with Linux.
 
No, I don’t think so. A lot of social media & websites are restricted, like FB, Instagram and then specific websites of certain media.

But I’m using VPN anyway, so until they cut out the server that I’m linked up to, I can do whatever I want.

Can Russians with VPNs still access all restricted outside sites (social media or otherwise) ?
 
Even if Russia are really good with controlling information spread within the population of what is really happening in Ukraine, the more sanctions the west imposes, the more discomfort the Russian general population will feel. I think it's a question of when these sanctions will start to really have an effect on the general population and the rich of Russia. When will the average Joe end up with no food and without a job? When will the rich and highly influential people lose enough assets and business for it to start being a problem for them? That is when things will start turning against Putin and a scenario in which a Civil war starts would be very probable if he keeps on this madness.
 
I’m not going to pretend to be an expert on restructuring laws in Russia but surely Putin is taking the country on a fasttrack to a Puerto Rico style problem? High level that seems a similar situation, downgraded bonds (already happening rapidly), inability to sell more bonds (in this case severely diminished ability given they are blocked from large % of global market) and so using national savings which will run out.
 
Can Russians with VPNs still access all restricted outside sites (social media or otherwise) ?
Well if you can connect to the vpn server they have no way of restricting you. Unless the vpn service intentionally imposes some restrictions which is highly unlikely.
 
Surely it's all flown in to around Lviv and the Western part? Avoid the roads etc.

Is admittedly a grim outlook though. It's clear the Russian aim was cutting off Ukraine from the Black Sea, which will absolutely screw any future Ukrainian state economically if the Russians don't leave.

This is such a mess, it's so difficult to see how this is going to end.

Flying over occupied areas will be difficult, risks confrontation. If NATO is establishing no fly zones for Russian aircraft, outside Ukraine then you can guarantee any areas in Ukraine captured by the Russians, will also become no fly zones for NATO/West aircraft.
If the 'safe corridors' are established to let refugees out, this will be along the main roads West/S/West and such roads will be heavily trafficked and will delay imports, especially if the Russians control the full length of such corridors.

It is very grim indeed. Putin has had a long time to plan this and although the 'blitzkrieg' everyone was expecting hasn't materialized (as yet), the Russians seemed to be taking the 'strategic ground' in the South.

The West, NATO in particular is being gradually reduced to 'onlooker status'. If Putin gets away with this then we can expect the 'domino-theory' to take effect and there will be little if anything the West can do then to help anyone, even themselves, we will be 'baying at the moon'.

Where are the leaders of the West/NATO who can match Putin? Macron seems to be making a try, but its not inspiring confidence, more confusion.

Actually it isn't so difficult to see how it will end, Putin will stay well away from contact with NATO and subsequently get everything he wants, in terms of his 'land grab' into Ukraine and also including (over time) Nordstream 2.

Its back to the drawing board for the West and NATO in particular.
 
Apparently Putin liked her. Not much of a surprise given she presided over a militarily punny Germany that consistently undermined NATO and shut down Germany’s nuclear power stations making them more dependent on Russian energy.

Nah - but I think that he knew he would not have it as easy with her than with the others as Merkel knew Russia and Russians since early childhood and grew up near a Russian military garnison...

There is much talked about that "relationship" in the recent days. You all know the story with the dog - Merkel was bitten by a dog sometimes early and her fear of dogs is legendary - so her assistant phoned Russia before a meeting and begged that Putin's big dog should be kept away. That meeting Putin did but put up a stuffed dog near her chair... But in later meetings he had the dog with him and tried to frighten her with it... (That probably tells you a lot about Putin...)

3358bc11-7790-4739-8f6d-840de026bad9.jpeg
 
I know she was well liked but was she that good? Germany has sleep walked into this situation totally reliant on Russian energy and with a depleted military that couldn't defend it's own borders.

Exactly. Germany left one of the worst impressions of all European countries in this whole mess and we just came out of 16 years of Merkel leadership. Of course she's reponsible as well. That being said, I would also like to have Merkel as a diplomat right now. She's said to be one of the very few Putin respected. Also is fluent in Russian, grew up in the DDR so knows the Soviet mindset etc.
 
Nah - but I think that he knew he would not have it as easy with her than with the others as Merkel knew Russia and Russians since early childhood and grew up near a Russian military garnison...

There is much talked about that "relationship" in the recent days. You all know the story with the dog - Merkel was bitten by a dog sometimes early and her fear of dogs is legendary - so her assistant phoned Russia before a meeting and begged that Putin's big dog should be kept away. That meeting Putin did but put up a stuffed dog near her chair... But in later meetings he had the dog with him and tried to frighten her with it... (That probably tells you a lot about Putin...)

3358bc11-7790-4739-8f6d-840de026bad9.jpeg
He tried to frighten her with a black lab?
 
He tried to frighten her with a black lab?

If you are scared of dogs every big dog will scare you. And normal people respect that - and do not try to intimidate you. But that was Putin's tactic - he enjoyed that scene...
 
If you are scared of dogs every big dog will scare you. And normal people respect that - and do not try to intimidate you. But that was Putin's tactic - he enjoyed that scene...

And Labradors apparently represent a large amount of all bites. So if you are afraid of being bitten a labrador is as much of a worry than any other breed.
 
Nah - but I think that he knew he would not have it as easy with her than with the others as Merkel knew Russia and Russians since early childhood and grew up near a Russian military garnison...

There is much talked about that "relationship" in the recent days. You all know the story with the dog - Merkel was bitten by a dog sometimes early and her fear of dogs is legendary - so her assistant phoned Russia before a meeting and begged that Putin's big dog should be kept away. That meeting Putin did but put up a stuffed dog near her chair... But in later meetings he had the dog with him and tried to frighten her with it... (That probably tells you a lot about Putin...)

3358bc11-7790-4739-8f6d-840de026bad9.jpeg
Didn't know this what a twat
 
Nah - but I think that he knew he would not have it as easy with her than with the others as Merkel knew Russia and Russians since early childhood and grew up near a Russian military garnison...

There is much talked about that "relationship" in the recent days. You all know the story with the dog - Merkel was bitten by a dog sometimes early and her fear of dogs is legendary - so her assistant phoned Russia before a meeting and begged that Putin's big dog should be kept away. That meeting Putin did but put up a stuffed dog near her chair... But in later meetings he had the dog with him and tried to frighten her with it... (That probably tells you a lot about Putin...)

3358bc11-7790-4739-8f6d-840de026bad9.jpeg

What i don't understand is, why did Merkel just sit there and take sh1t from him?

If someone bought a dog into work i'd tell them to take it home. If she didn't like dogs, she should have demanded either the dog goes or she does.
 
Moscow & St Petersburg are less pro-Putin… some regions, like Khabarovsk, have a strong history of distaste for centralized power. On the other hand there’s regions like Chechnya with 99% votes for Putin (literally) in every election.

Fascinating considering chechen wars. How did that come to be? Is it purely Kadryov influence? Meaning if Kadryov would turn on Putin, would most chechens do it too?
 
I see the Home Secretary has gone to the Polish Boarder.

No doubt to ensure no one is allowed on a plane to UK, or looking for fruit pickers perhaps.
 
What i don't understand is, why did Merkel just sit there and take sh1t from him?

If someone bought a dog into work i'd tell them to take it home. If she didn't like dogs, she should have demanded either the dog goes or she does.
It would be a show of weakness. Honestly, if I were Merkel I'd try to overcome fear and pet and cuddle the dog. If someone is obviously trying to play mind games, just show him you are not affected.
 
What i don't understand is, why did Merkel just sit there and take sh1t from him?

Nordstream!! ...plus Putin realised if Merkel would take his crap, then so would the rest of the Wests leaders, as she was the toughest cookie... and hes been right (so far!!)
 
Fascinating considering chechen wars. How did that come to be? Is it purely Kadryov influence? Meaning if Kadryov would turn on Putin, would most chechens do it too?
Kadyrov's father switched over to the Russians, offering to help Russia. He was also killed later. I don't quite know why he switched sides though.

This is what Wiki says:
According to James Hughes, Kadyrov's U-turn may have been motivated partly by personal ambition and partly by a concern with the desperate condition of the Chechen population, and was also driven by a fear of the growing sectarian Wahhabi influence on the insurgency.
 
No it's funny because microsoft softwares are and will continue to be widely pirated and free or close to it. The tablets will be sold online as long as russian's customs don't prevent it. Microsoft knows it and think that people are complete idiots with their bogus PR stunt. Also it's a perfect opportunity for people to ditch Microsoft products and go with Linux.
A huge amount of Microsoft's revenue comes from cloud services and plenty of companies depend on Microsoft products.

I'm not sure what suspending services means in this context, Microsoft would have to clarify that. Their statement says they're suspending new sales of products and services so presumably they aren't planning to, say, make GitHub unavailable in Russia. Now that would be something.
 
Scholz chat an hour with Putin today. Not much they agreed on, but it seems that there will be a third round of negotiations during the weekend.
 
I, during a talk about museums I did whilst working at a museum, while standing right in the centre of the museum said the word 'musician' instead of the word 'museum'. It's not a sign of advanced old age, it's just a slip of the tongue.
I had a mate ask an ice cream man for a 69 many years ago. Got a right odd look off him.
 
Kadyrov's father switched over to the Russians, offering to help Russia. He was also killed later. I don't quite know why he switched sides though.
Yeah, I know that. I understand the popularity of Kadryov as a relgious leader, but I don't understand popularity of Putin. Is it just popularity by proxy (because Kadryov says so). I mean if Kadryov would turn on Putin, would Putin still be so much popular? Or would his populary plummet to 5%.
 
... The West, NATO in particular is being gradually reduced to 'onlooker status'. If Putin gets away with this then we can expect the 'domino-theory' to take effect and there will be little if anything the West can do then to help anyone, even themselves, we will be 'baying at the moon'.

Where are the leaders of the West/NATO who can match Putin? Macron seems to be making a try, but its not inspiring confidence, more confusion.

Actually it isn't so difficult to see how it will end, Putin will stay well away from contact with NATO and subsequently get everything he wants, in terms of his 'land grab' into Ukraine and also including (over time) Nordstream 2.

Its back to the drawing board for the West and NATO in particular.

NATO began with onlooker status (since Ukraine is not part of NATO) - it hasn't been reduced to this. Moreover, in funnelling weapons into Ukraine and providing real-time intelligence to Ukrainian forces, NATO has moved beyond simply looking on. As for the West, sanctions have been applied that will reduce the Russian economy to ruins over the next few weeks and months - again, this is far from merely looking on.

How will it end? Most likely with the Russian military suffering daily losses for months to come, tied up in fruitlessly attempting to pacify a country that is bigger than France (and so not available for deployment elsewhere), a collapsed Russian economy, rising unrest inside Russia, rising repression inside Russia, Ukraine semi-occupied but not defeated, the West slowly weaning itself off from reliance on Russian energy supplies, NATO stronger than ever (with additional countries joining and defence spending beefed up considerably), Russia weaker than ever, with little that is sustainable that Putin will be able to point to as a "victory".
 
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