Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

Revan said:
UK and France are nuclear powers on their own, but the US has nukes in Turkey, Italy and Germany. Lavrov already mentioned that it is time for the US to remove their nukes from Europe.

To be fair, I do not understand what is their point nowadays considering that the US can hit Russia from sea, air and the US. On Germany, they are all in the same place and it should take Russia to hit them in less than 10 minutes, which is probably less than it would take the US to decide to retaliate or not.
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I think they worry about US stealth bombers taking off from as close as Germany and flying over to Moscow for a decapitating first-strike. But as you said, they can also hit them with SLBMs that might be as close as the Norwegian Sea or Barents Sea. Plus why is a B-2 flight starting from Germany much different than one that starts in Missouri, or Alaska, or Britain or anywhere else? They can refuel in-air and approach Russia from any direction, regardless of where they take off from.

So militarily I don't get it either. Maybe it is just that they think it would be yet another step that would distance the European countries from the US. Because as is the European countries are sort of tied at the hip to the US when it comes to the nuclear war calculus.
 
TheReligion said:
Disagree.

The fact Putin is complaining and threatening so much indicates a man under pressure. He knows his country is crumbling.
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He is under pressure as are the other Western leaders.

If you do not understand this is about spheres of influence you do not understand why NATO was formed, nor why we had the Cuban Missiles Crisis in 1962.
 
MTF said:
I think they worry about US stealth bombers taking off from as close as Germany and flying over to Moscow for a decapitating first-strike. But as you said, they can also hit them with SLBMs that might be as close as the Norwegian Sea or Barents Sea. Plus why is a B-2 flight starting from Germany much different than one that starts in Missouri, or Alaska, or Britain or anywhere else? They can refuel and approach Russia from any direction.

So militarily I don't get it either. Maybe it is just that they think it would be yet another step that would distance the European countries from the US. Because as is the European countries are sort of tied at the hip to the US when it comes to the nuclear war calculus.
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B2s can reach Europe without refueling. I think that they were launched from the US, bombed Yugoslavia and then returned to the US, without the need of refueling.

So strategically, I do not understand what the US gains from those nukes, but who knows.
 
Revan said:
UK and France are nuclear powers on their own, but the US has nukes in Turkey, Italy and Germany. Lavrov already mentioned that it is time for the US to remove their nukes from Europe.

To be fair, I do not understand what is their point nowadays considering that the US can hit Russia from sea, air and the US. On Germany, they are all in the same place and it should take Russia to hit them in less than 10 minutes, which is probably less than it would take the US to decide to retaliate or not.
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The Russians want to draw the US into the conversation. Then it will feed into their whole narrative of big bad USA v Russia.
 
Maagge said:
I have a Russian friend here in Denmark who's been here quite long (went to highschool here etc.). Anyway, she has been critical of the war on especially Instagram. Now she's stopped being that as she knows a Russian guy in Germany who got a letter that he was a traitor after being critical of Russia on Facebook. Following that his parents in Russia had a visit from police or whoever ransacking the place.
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Must be frightening to be confronted with that, especially given that they aren’t in Russia.
 
Red Dreams said:
He is under pressure as are the other Western leaders.

If you do not understand this is about spheres of influence you do not understand why NATO was formed, nor why we had the Cuban Missiles Crisis in 1962.
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Everyone is under varying degrees of pressure but the obvious signs are that Putin is cracking. Rambling on about nuclear weapons, turning his country into North Korea, threatening about a no fly zone that doesn’t exist and trying to apply pressure so that the sanctions (which he initially suggested won’t bother Russia) are taken away.

Desperate man.
 
Raoul said:
Must be frightening to be confronted with that, especially given that they aren’t in Russia.
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This is what the KGB and its satellites did. They called it profilacsis. A bunch of costumed people show in your house at 5AM and turn it upside down, then leave unless they really find something banned/incriminating but happens rarely. It is different to actually inventing a reason to arrest you, only purpose is to intimidate and humiliate you in front of your neighbors.
 
Maagge said:
I have a Russian friend here in Denmark who's been here quite long (went to highschool here etc.). Anyway, she has been critical of the war on especially Instagram. Now she's stopped being that as she knows a Russian guy in Germany who got a letter that he was a traitor after being critical of Russia on Facebook. Following that his parents in Russia had a visit from police or whoever ransacking the place.
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Holy shit!
 
TheReligion said:
Everyone is under varying degrees of pressure but the obvious signs are that Putin is cracking. Rambling on about nuclear weapons, turning his country into North Korea, threatening about a no fly zone that doesn’t exist and trying to apply pressure so that the sanctions (which he initially suggested won’t bother Russia) are taken away.

Desperate man.
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The one thing we can be sure of is he will get a say in what happens at his doorstep.
In the end that is what this is all about.

It obviously is costing him.

But Russia has what the West needs and vice versa.

Lets hope clear heads prevail in the end.

Too many lives already lost.
 
Red Dreams said:
The one thing we can be sure of is he will get a say in what happens at his doorstep.
In the end that is what this is all about.

It obviously is costing him.

But Russia has what the West needs and vice versa.

Lets hope clear heads prevail in the end.

Too many lives already lost.
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Ukraine are fighting to stop Putin having that say and it doesn’t matter a feck what Putin thinks he needs.
 
Red Dreams said:
The one thing we can be sure of is he will get a say in what happens at his doorstep.
In the end that is what this is all about.

It obviously is costing him.

But Russia has what the West needs and vice versa.

Lets hope clear heads prevail in the end.

Too many lives already lost.
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It’s not just the west anymore though; the whole world is coming together to isolate Russia. No one will back down either hence him having so many wobbles in the past few days.

If he think he can ride that out he’s even crazier than I thought.
 
TheReligion said:
It’s not just the west anymore though; the whole world is coming together to isolate Russia. No one will back down either hence him having so many wobbles in the past few days.

If he think he can ride that out he’s even crazier than I thought.
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Not quite. It's the West and Singapore, South Korea and Japan who joined in on the sanctions. As far as I can tell.
 
calodo2003 said:
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This is getting ridiculous. Zelensky is not Anne Frank. He has an army on the battlefield and Rubio -while he seems to have acted recklessly- certainly didn’t expose his exact location.
 
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TheReligion said:
It’s not just the west anymore though; the whole world is coming together to isolate Russia. No one will back down either hence him having so many wobbles in the past few days.

If he think he can ride that out he’s even crazier than I thought.
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The key players are the NATO countries and Russia.
I feel hopeful we will see some movement to de escalate the situation sooner than later.

No one wants this to go on too long.
Far too much uncertainly some nut does something.
 
Pintu said:
This is getting ridiculous. Zelensky is not Anne Frank. He has an army in the battle field and Rubio -while he seems to have acted recklessly- certainly didn’t expose his exact location.
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Technically he wouldn't have been exposing Anne Frank's exact location either.
 
VorZakone said:
Not quite. It's the West and Singapore, South Korea and Japan who joined in on the sanctions. As far as I can tell.
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A number are becoming quite vocal about it and expect to join the sanctions in coming days and weeks.

I’d say this narrative that its purely the west that disapprove is wrong.
 
Carolina Red said:
The performance of Ukrainian air defenses vs Russian air power has been astonishing
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It's more the performance of the cutting edge manpads that have been provided.

To be honest I don't like the celebration we've seen of downing these aircraft. The pilots are somebody's son or husband or father, and about as far removed from Putin's gang as the Ukrainians shooting them down.
 
Sir Matt said:


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Read half of that letter (not a russian, but can read, very slowly though), and some interesting points there:

Nobody from higher ups said anything about war. FSB were told to analyse all possibilities and ways the war could go. Then when the war broke out, higer ups started going ape shit, that everything didn't go to a T as they had analysed.
Kadirov is really pissed off. Almost started a conflict with the russians. He feels somebody from FSB blew the whistle on his troops, that got annihilated first days in.
Reckon they can't win anymore, there's no plan, just plodding along now. If they somehow get Kiev and remove Zelensky, they don't have anybody to step in and sign a treaty with.
Agrees as most, they won't be able to hold Ukraine even if they took it.
Nobody knows how much they lost, they kept track first 2 days, now it's all over the place. Could be 2, 5 even 10 thousand, thinks it's closer to 10000. Important note: thats without counting LNR and DNR casulties. Troops wandering off by themselves, even commanders don't know whether they died, deserted or got captured.
Their deadline is june. Then economy collapses.
Next week, one of the fronts will start to fall apart. No analytics, nobody knows anything for sure, chaos and instinctive actions.
Trying to scare the west into removing some sanctions.
Will attempt to put on Ukraine, that they secretly were making nuclear weapons.
 
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