Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

utdalltheway said:
BBC news link to video shows chopper being shot down
Really clear video that’s supposedly a Ukrainian group shooting down a fast flying Russian helicopter.
More of the same please.
Click to expand...
Does anyone know how these rockets actually work? Do you aim several meters in front of the aircraft when you fire - all down to timing, or is there some kind of guidance system? In essence, does it take skill to hit that helicopter?
 
ShoePolish said:
Read half of that letter (not a russian, but can read, very slowly though), and some interesting points there:

Nobody from higher ups said anything about war. FSB were told to analyse all possibilities and ways the war could go. Then when the war broke out, higer ups started going ape shit, that everything didn't go to a T as they had analysed.
Kadirov is really pissed off. Almost started a conflict with the russians. He feels somebody from FSB blew the whistle on his troops, that got annihilated first days in.
Reckon they can't win anymore, there's no plan, just plodding along now. If they somehow get Kiev and remove Zelensky, they don't have anybody to step in and sign a treaty with.
Agrees as most, they won't be able to hold Ukraine even if they took it.
Nobody knows how much they lost, they kept track first 2 days, now it's all over the place. Could be 2, 5 even 10 thousand, thinks it's closer to 10000. Important note: thats without counting LNR and DNR casulties. Troops wandering off by themselves, even commanders don't know whether they died, deserted or got captured.
Their deadline is june. Then economy collapses.
Next week, one of the fronts will start to fall apart. No analytics, nobody knows anything for sure, chaos and instinctive actions.
Trying to scare the west into removing some sanctions.
Will attempt to put on Ukraine, that they secretly were making nuclear weapons.
Click to expand...
If this is true then Ukraine will be stupid to cede anything to Russia. It really looks like they could be driven out of Ukraine on their ass.
 
Raoul said:
Must be frightening to be confronted with that, especially given that they aren’t in Russia.
Click to expand...
Yeah I can't say I have those worries when using social media. And as you say they're not even in Russia, but yet Russia choose to spend time and money on finding critical Russians on social media and then find their families in Russia just to suppress criticism.
 
Shakesey said:
Does anyone know how these rockets actually work? Do you aim several meters in front of the aircraft when you fire - all down to timing, or is there some kind of guidance system? In essence, does it take skill to hit that helicopter?
Click to expand...

There's no way that's an unguided rocket like from a basic RPG launcher.
 
11101 said:
It's more the performance of the cutting edge manpads that have been provided.

To be honest I don't like the celebration we've seen of downing these aircraft. The pilots are somebody's son or husband or father, and about as far removed from Putin's gang as the Ukrainians shooting them down.
Click to expand...
Did they not get the choice to enlist in the Russian forces or is it forced upon them?
 
ShoePolish said:
Read half of that letter (not a russian, but can read, very slowly though), and some interesting points there:

Nobody from higher ups said anything about war. FSB were told to analyse all possibilities and ways the war could go. Then when the war broke out, higer ups started going ape shit, that everything didn't go to a T as they had analysed.
Kadirov is really pissed off. Almost started a conflict with the russians. He feels somebody from FSB blew the whistle on his troops, that got annihilated first days in.
Reckon they can't win anymore, there's no plan, just plodding along now. If they somehow get Kiev and remove Zelensky, they don't have anybody to step in and sign a treaty with.
Agrees as most, they won't be able to hold Ukraine even if they took it.
Nobody knows how much they lost, they kept track first 2 days, now it's all over the place. Could be 2, 5 even 10 thousand, thinks it's closer to 10000. Important note: thats without counting LNR and DNR casulties. Troops wandering off by themselves, even commanders don't know whether they died, deserted or got captured.
Their deadline is june. Then economy collapses.
Next week, one of the fronts will start to fall apart. No analytics, nobody knows anything for sure, chaos and instinctive actions.
Trying to scare the west into removing some sanctions.
Will attempt to put on Ukraine, that they secretly were making nuclear weapons.
Click to expand...

Ok read last bit too, not much to add apart from his thoughts on whether Putin could press the red button:
He says no and gives 3 reasons -
1. There is no "red button", but a chain of command. It won't be just Putin blowing shit himself,
2. Few doubts about whether it properly functions (chain of command i think). My lack of russian forbids me translating this, but think he means there might be breaks in that chain, where somebody doesn't really know how and what to do exactly (not sure on this),
3. He doesn't believe that somebody, who is afraid to let his closest advisors and ministers, be it because of covid or assassination attempt, is going to off himself like that. If you're that scared to die, how are you going to kill yourself and everyone around you like that?
 
11101 said:
It's more the performance of the cutting edge manpads that have been provided.

To be honest I don't like the celebration we've seen of downing these aircraft. The pilots are somebody's son or husband or father, and about as far removed from Putin's gang as the Ukrainians shooting them down.
Click to expand...
I’m fully aware that the Ukrainians aren’t karate chopping Russian aircraft out of the sky.

As to the second bit… I’ve already spoke about this before. A Ukrainian victory is going to come at the cost of Russian casualties. I want Ukraine to win.
 
Carolina Red said:
I’m fully aware that the Ukrainians aren’t karate chopping Russian aircraft out of the sky.

As to the second bit… I’ve already spoke about this before. A Ukrainian victory is going to come at the cost of Russian casualties. I want Ukraine to win.
Click to expand...
Exactly. The real world alternative to this Russian soldier dying is him killing Ukrainian civilians/soldiers.
 
ShoePolish said:
Read half of that letter (not a russian, but can read, very slowly though), and some interesting points there:

Nobody from higher ups said anything about war. FSB were told to analyse all possibilities and ways the war could go. Then when the war broke out, higer ups started going ape shit, that everything didn't go to a T as they had analysed.
Kadirov is really pissed off. Almost started a conflict with the russians. He feels somebody from FSB blew the whistle on his troops, that got annihilated first days in.
Reckon they can't win anymore, there's no plan, just plodding along now. If they somehow get Kiev and remove Zelensky, they don't have anybody to step in and sign a treaty with.
Agrees as most, they won't be able to hold Ukraine even if they took it.
Nobody knows how much they lost, they kept track first 2 days, now it's all over the place. Could be 2, 5 even 10 thousand, thinks it's closer to 10000. Important note: thats without counting LNR and DNR casulties. Troops wandering off by themselves, even commanders don't know whether they died, deserted or got captured.
Their deadline is june. Then economy collapses.
Next week, one of the fronts will start to fall apart. No analytics, nobody knows anything for sure, chaos and instinctive actions.
Trying to scare the west into removing some sanctions.
Will attempt to put on Ukraine, that they secretly were making nuclear weapons.
Click to expand...

Would love to know more about this bit, as losing Kadyrov would probably mean Putin's internal support is on the ropes.
 
Raoul said:
Would love to know more about this bit, as losing Kadyrov would probably mean Putin's internal support is on the ropes.
Click to expand...

Mentions Kadyrov built an all conquering powerful figure, but if things start going south, chechens are likely to take him out themselves.
Also important point I missed, says a "localized" nuclear explosion might be possible in Ukraine, but need to find a way how to pin it on them.

Don't know validity of the letter, but I take Cristo Grozev as a reputable source.
 
Shakesey said:
Does anyone know how these rockets actually work? Do you aim several meters in front of the aircraft when you fire - all down to timing, or is there some kind of guidance system? In essence, does it take skill to hit that helicopter?
Click to expand...

It's relatively easy if it's a US Stinger or similar. A bit of basic setup required to get it to lock onto the target and you do have to aim a little ahead for a fast jet (not a helicopter) but once its locked on and fired it uses infrared and UV to home in on the target automatically.
 
ShoePolish said:
Ok read last bit too, not much to add apart from his thoughts on whether Putin could press the red button:
He says no and gives 3 reasons -
1. There is no "red button", but a chain of command. It won't be just Putin blowing shit himself,
2. Few doubts about whether it properly functions (chain of command i think). My lack of russian forbids me translating this, but think he means there might be breaks in that chain, where somebody doesn't really know how and what to do exactly (not sure on this),
3. He doesn't believe that somebody, who is afraid to let his closest advisors and ministers, be it because of covid or assassination attempt, is going to off himself like that. If you're that scared to die, how are you going to kill yourself and everyone around you like that?
Click to expand...

Thanks. I do wonder if, given abject failure of the invasion and attempts to seize Kyiv or other major targets, Putin tries to use tactical nukes and the military command staff refuses. Rather than the oligarchs rising up, I can only really see potential for the military chain of command or FSB to try to end the war and potentially depose Putin.
 
ShoePolish said:
Mentions Kadyrov built an all conquering powerful figure, but if things start going south, chechens are likely to take him out themselves.
Also important point I missed, says a "localized" nuclear explosion might be possible in Ukraine, but need to find a way how to pin it on them.

Don't know validity of the letter, but I take Cristo Grozev as a reputable source.
Click to expand...

Agreed on Grozev. He's been fantastic over time, even before the invasion.

Kadyrov probably knows he is fecked if Putin gets deposed.
 
Sky News leading on their website with a report from a Mariupol hospital. Text (and video) covering the moment an 18 month old child was brought to the emergency room having been struck with shrapnel. Doctors were unable to save the child's life. Warning: the video is graphic on the website.
 
Right now the one thing I worry about is a localised nuclear bomb in Kiev. The west need to increase rhetoric and sanctions, the weaker it looks the more likely Russian will do it.

They’ll probably spin it off ala the Americans, “weapons of mass distraction”.
 
ShoePolish said:
Seen a report yesterday or 2 days ago, saying they went in, got to first checkpoint/town/village and are refusing to go further. They were meant to link up on Kyiv front.
Click to expand...

It could well be true, because those troops will have had a lot more access to social media than the Russians - and seen more of the reality of what they'd be going into.
 
ShoePolish said:
Ok read last bit too, not much to add apart from his thoughts on whether Putin could press the red button:
He says no and gives 3 reasons -
1. There is no "red button", but a chain of command. It won't be just Putin blowing shit himself,
2. Few doubts about whether it properly functions (chain of command i think). My lack of russian forbids me translating this, but think he means there might be breaks in that chain, where somebody doesn't really know how and what to do exactly (not sure on this),
3. He doesn't believe that somebody, who is afraid to let his closest advisors and ministers, be it because of covid or assassination attempt, is going to off himself like that. If you're that scared to die, how are you going to kill yourself and everyone around you like that?
Click to expand...
Your efforts here are appreciated
 
I don’t believe the sabotage bs. But the state of German defence in general seems to be horrendous.

 
Carolina Red said:
The performance of Ukrainian air defenses vs Russian air power has been astonishing
Click to expand...

Can we however assume if they didn't have US/NATO equipment and more importantly intel (knowing exactly when, where and how many Russians are coming) that this battle would have been a lot different?
 
atkar83 said:
Can we however assume if they didn't have US/NATO equipment and more importantly intel (knowing exactly when, where and how many Russians are coming) that this battle would have been a lot different?
Click to expand...
NATO assistance has definitely helped shape the battle… but even with that assistance, it’s still astonishing considering the relative size of the Russian Air Force compared to what the Ukrainians have at their disposal. That Russia has yet to establish full air superiority is a feat unto itself.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.