Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

I can say that this has been a total fecking disaster for Putin but he will have also achieved everything. He will have shown that Russia will happily destroy it self to the point where I’m not sure western countries will go to. I mean Putin will come away claiming victory and those families whom lost Russian soldiers, they’ll believe they liberated Ukraine. It’s just sad that nothing will change really.

How will they manage to believe that when the Kyiv government will remain in power and the vast majority of Ukraine will remain free of Russian troops? Because whatever happens from here on, it's clear that Russia is simply unable to take Kyiv and unable to bring down the government.
 
They don't and never have. Nobody, including Putin and cronies, believes that NATO would ever invade a nuclear-armed Russia. The idea that they might is just a convenient lie peddled by Putin.

This invasion is about crushing a free, independent and democratic Ukraine, lest it provides an example to the Russian people. This is what Putin fears. Everything else is just lies.

Russia has been successful in portraying itself as the eternal victim. In reality, in modern times it has been attacked twice, in 1812 and 1941. Meanwhile, it has been attacking to the west and south and east almost constantly.
 
They don't and never have. Nobody, including Putin and cronies, believes that NATO would ever invade a nuclear-armed Russia. The idea that they might is just a convenient lie peddled by Putin.

This invasion is about crushing a free, independent and democratic Ukraine, lest it provides an example to the Russian people. This is what Putin fears. Everything else is just lies.
Agreed
 
Of course they will. Russians will absolutely throw soldiers into the meat grinder and eventually Kyiv will be encircled. What do you think will happen then? Russians will get what they want as sad is it is.

The military reality says otherwise. Russia does not have enough troops to even encircle the vast perimeter of Kyiv, far less take a city where, in an urban environment, the general rule is that attackers will die at six times the rate of of defenders.
 
In which way mate? These guys absolutely withstood Russians and now they’ve actually had people taking key positions in FSB. In fact I’d say Chechens are the most trained guys in Russian military.
You literally said Khadyrov has an army that could take on any country in Europe.
 
They’re probably the best trained guys in Russia.
They have a dedicated special forces school. A lot of guys whom are under Kadyrov are absolute living legends in terms of SOF - like Daniil Martynov et al.

NATO couldn’t deal with Chechnya for instance. Russians couldn’t deal with them. So yeah Chechen could attack any country, if they’re pretty much impregnable.

It's not 1915 anymore, you can have the finest or deadliest troops on the planet, it's almost irrelevant when you're invading a country with high tech bombers, helicopters and missiles and without air superiority. They would get obliterated within 1km into the first NATO country.
 
It's not 1915 anymore, you can have the finest or deadliest troops on the planet, it's almost irrelevant when you're invading a country with high tech bombers, helicopters and missiles and without air superiority. They would get obliterated within 1km into the first NATO country.
But these Chechnyans....I hear they can dodge explosions, breathe fire AND they all look like Anna Kournikova (used to).
 
They’re probably the best trained guys in Russia.
They have a dedicated special forces school. A lot of guys whom are under Kadyrov are absolute living legends in terms of SOF - like Daniil Martynov et al.

NATO couldn’t deal with Chechnya for instance. Russians couldn’t deal with them. So yeah Chechen could attack any country, if they’re pretty much impregnable.
Thought the Ukrainians had caused them severe casualties?
 
They don't and never have. Nobody, including Putin and cronies, believes that NATO would ever invade a nuclear-armed Russia. The idea that they might is just a convenient lie peddled by Putin.

This invasion is about crushing a free, independent and democratic Ukraine, lest it provides an example to the Russian people. This is what Putin fears. Everything else is just lies.
I'm glad someone agrees with me on this. He doesn't believe any of this propaganda, doesn't fit his personality.
 
I'm not sure Ukraine is a failed state. I think patriotism in the people is now stronger than ever. Russia can put their flag and puppet government up for a short while, but once they leave the Ukranians will just tear the flag down and put the Ukraine flag up again. Just like the Taliban did in Afghanistan. If the people don't want to be changed, they won't. The failed attempt to put democracy in Afghanistan is a great example of this.
The thing is Ukraine will take a decade to even reach the same level they are now. The country will be sent years back economically and even demographically.

Russia will have “no problems” with that as they don’t want Ukraine to be a developed state or reach the standard of some European country. They want it to be weak and dependent just like Belarus.

In terms of how long a puppet govt will stand? Yes, can’t see it standing for even couple of years as Putin pretty much severed all relations with the west of Ukraine and all Ukrainian people that will be still there. He can try to install some separatists in the already captured regions but it will take massive resources to keep controlling this vast area.
 
They don't and never have. Nobody, including Putin and cronies, believes that NATO would ever invade a nuclear-armed Russia. The idea that they might is just a convenient lie peddled by Putin.

This invasion is about crushing a free, independent and democratic Ukraine, lest it provides an example to the Russian people. This is what Putin fears. Everything else is just lies.

I agree with this 100%. A lot of Russians have friends or relatives in Ukraine. Let's not forget that Russia has 145 million people, and Ukraine 45 million people, so there is not a huge difference in population, at least not the same as the size of the two countries. And when Russians look at Ukraine and see that it gets more and more democratic and perhaps is accepted in EU, they will question themselves "why do we have the same old guy as president for 25 years???" That would be a danger for Putin himself, and his cronies, not for Russia.

NATO has never been a factor. It is just silly to talk about NATO in this situation.
 
The thing is Ukraine will take a decade to even reach the same level they are now. The country will be sent years back economically and even demographically.

Russia will have “no problems” with that as they don’t want Ukraine to be a developed state or reach the standard of some European country. They want it to be weak and dependent just like Belarus.

In terms of how long a puppet govt will stand? Yes, can’t see it standing for even couple of years as Putin pretty much severed all relations with the west of Ukraine and all Ukrainian people that will be still there. He can try to install some separatists in the already captured regions but it will take massive resources to keep controlling this vast area.

And once the occupational forces fall, the remaining UA forces from the West will head eastwards again to retake the land. And once Ukraine regains it's independence, I think the Western countries will help to rebuild as much as possible.

Putin has the upper hand on the attack with all his bombs, but when the tide shifts to him defending and occupying he is severely disadvantaged in the sense that he will have less and less money as time passes to 'maintain peace'.
 

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They’re probably the best trained guys in Russia.
They have a dedicated special forces school. A lot of guys whom are under Kadyrov are absolute living legends in terms of SOF - like Daniil Martynov et al.

NATO couldn’t deal with Chechnya for instance. Russians couldn’t deal with them. So yeah Chechen could attack any country, if they’re pretty much impregnable.

What are you talking about? Do you know that Chechnya's population is only 1.4 million? They are nothing.
 
What are you talking about? Do you know that Chechnya's population is only 1.4 million? They are nothing.
But all of them are like avengers from MU. Imagine 1.4 million avengers.

It sounded like he was talking about some comic book stuff.
 


A country with allegedly 1300 warplanes including gen 5 stealth jets, has failed to dominate the airspace against a country with 37 MiG-29s and 32 Su-27s. And that's despite the defenders having no long-range/high-altitude SAM missiles like S-400 or Patriot. Their air defences are literally low altitude MANPADS.

They will write books of this level of failure.
 
They don't and never have. Nobody, including Putin and cronies, believes that NATO would ever invade a nuclear-armed Russia. The idea that they might is just a convenient lie peddled by Putin.

This invasion is about crushing a free, independent and democratic Ukraine, lest it provides an example to the Russian people. This is what Putin fears. Everything else is just lies.

I think the time to stop talking about NATO aggression was when the guy who would happily, and frequently has, used the spectre of NATO aggression to his benefit at any opportunity, went on National TV and gave a long rambling evil speech about how Ukraine wasn’t a real country, Russia deserved its glorious empire back, and also Ukrainians were basically Russian anyway… and then promptly Invaded the whole of Ukraine, despite most initial consensus being he was only going into the Donbass.

Any point discussing the merits of NATO’s viable threat to Russia kinda became irrelevant then. To the point that it’s sort of weird people are still so intent on doing so.
 
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I assumed that he meant their effectiveness in a protracted guerilla campaign. Which would have made more sense given their numbers.

He was talking about invading a country. A guerilla campaign in a foreign country is far from the best scenario. And we're not even mentionning what would happen to them before they actually reach the 1st city (unless they infiltrate the area one by one).
 
I think the time to stop talking about NATO aggression was when the guy who would happily, and frequently has, used NATO aggression as an argument to further his agenda, went on National TV and gave a long rambling speech about how Ukraine wasn’t a real country, Russia deserved its glorious empire back, and also Ukrainians were basically Russian anyway… and then promptly Invaded the whole of Ukraine, despite most initial consensus being he was only going into the Donbass.

Any point discussing the merits of NATO’s viable threat to Russia kinda became irrelevant then. To the point that it’s sort of weird people are still so intent on doing so.
Yeah that’s how I feel too. Mentioning NATO is like him having a coherent moment to try and excuse what he’s done. It’s an ill thought power grab
 
A country with allegedly 1300 warplanes including gen 5 stealth jets, has failed to dominate the airspace against a country with 37 MiG-29s and 32 Su-27s. And that's despite the defenders having no long-range/high-altitude SAM missiles like S-400 or Patriot. Their air defences are literally low altitude MANPADS.

They will write books of this level of failure.

This is one of the most confounding parts of all of this. Russian ground forces have the excuse of terrible logistics and poor morale. Russian jets on the other hand, should be able to fly from Russian bases, fire off or drop their munitions, then fly back. The fact that that they don't even have air supremacy is just bizarre.
 
A country with allegedly 1300 warplanes including gen 5 stealth jets, has failed to dominate the airspace against a country with 37 MiG-29s and 32 Su-27s. And that's despite the defenders having no long-range/high-altitude SAM missiles like S-400 or Patriot. Their air defences are literally low altitude MANPADS.

They will write books of this level of failure.

There have been rumours for years that the air force couldn't afford to run itself and their 5th gen aircraft don't really work. Guess there must be truth to it.
 
There have been rumours for years that the air force couldn't afford to run itself and their 5th gen aircraft don't really work. Guess there must be truth to it.
I think the Su-57 does work and seems to be a capable jet. They just don't have many of them. Which seems to be a recurring theme with the Russians, not being able to mass produce their top equipment.