Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

Burns said Putin remained undeterred to keep pressing ahead with the war, saying the second phase of the conflict as it shifted to the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine was “at least as risky” or “even riskier” than the first phase where Russia failed to gain control of Kyiv, the capital.

“[Putin] is in a frame of mind in which he doesn’t believe he can afford to lose; so the stakes are quite high in this phase,” Burns said. “I think he’s convinced right now that doubling down . . . will enable him to make progress.”
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https://www.ft.com/content/a4e8de3b-a2aa-4f10-a820-a910274175a8
 
The salient points from the video-interview with "Arty Green" (Ukrainian officer on the front line) cited above are:

* The situation on the eastern front is stable, but tense, with only very minor Russian gains (a few km at most) here and there, achieved at heavy cost to Russian troops
* Russia doesn't have to means to launch an attack either on Moldova or Ukraine from Transnistria, because the Russian troops there are akin to nothing more than security guards.
* Freeing Transnistria from Russian control would take only about 1 day of fighting by Ukraine, if Moldova requested this and if Ukraine agreed to do it.
* Any use by Putin of tactical nukes wouldn't radically change the battlefield situation in Russia's favour (because Ukraine has no big concentrations troop to hit - they are well spread out). But he disagrees with those who say that Russian officers will refuse to launch them if ordered to.
* It's a question of when - not if - Ukraine pushes the Russians back to the internationally-recognised Ukrainian borders (but not including Crimea).
* In due course the people of Crimea will ask to come back to Ukraine, once they've had enough of the reality of Russian rule.
* It takes about a month combined for (a) training to be complete on new, crewed weapon systems (like the new howitzers); and (b) these new systems to integrated into a revised command system that can use them to best effect. This process has already started, but not all the systems have yet arrived in Ukraine. So in about a month from now, most of the new weapons systems will be on the front line, ready to use.
* When all of the new and more advanced weapons arrive at the front line, it will take only between 1 and 3 weeks to sweep the Russians all the way back to the borders of Russia (excluding Crimea).
 
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Raoul said:
The only downside to this is the Ukrainians likely won't know if any perpetrators survived, and if so, who.
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Yep. It makes you wonder, as some in the replies to that tweet do, if they weren’t sent into the shit so that the number of Bucha witnesses was lowered.

At the same time… I imagine if they have been wrecked, the Ukrainians have a bit of satisfaction in dishing out that bit of justice.
 


This is insane. For comparison, the peak US burnrate in Iraq was about 10b a month.
 
Raoul said:
This is insane. For comparison, the peak US burnrate in Iraq was about 10b a month.
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Well, the Iraq war lasted one month and one week only. US deaths were less than 200 during that time. Most Americans died later, during the occupation. And of course, the US was not trying to destroy whole cities, did not bombard buildings day and night.

This war is completely different. It is more similar to WW2, the eastern front. If any western country did to any country what Russians are doing to Ukraine, there would be huge protests, much larger than what we had during the Vietnam war. The worst surprise for me was that the Russians did not protest at all. Some anemic protests during the first week, and that was it. From what I am reading, over 80% still support Putin.
 
frostbite said:
Well, the Iraq war lasted one month and one week only. US deaths were less than 200 during that time. Most Americans died later, during the occupation. And of course, the US was not trying to destroy whole cities, did not bombard buildings day and night.

This war is completely different. It is more similar to WW2, the eastern front. If any western country did to any country what Russians are doing to Ukraine, there would be huge protests, much larger than what we had during the Vietnam war. The worst surprise for me was that the Russians did not protest at all. Some anemic protests during the first week, and that was it. From what I am reading, over 80% still support Putin.
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The war lasted 8 years. The figure I cited was during the peak of the 2009 Petreaus surge.
 
Raoul said:
The war lasted 8 years. The figure I cited was during the peak of the 2009 Petreaus surge.
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Yes, of course you are right about that. However, at that point it wasn't a full scale war against an opposing army. I think a large part of those expenses was for paying and training the new Iraq army itself.
 
frostbite said:
Well, the Iraq war lasted one month and one week only. US deaths were less than 200 during that time. Most Americans died later, during the occupation. And of course, the US was not trying to destroy whole cities, did not bombard buildings day and night.

This war is completely different. It is more similar to WW2, the eastern front. If any western country did to any country what Russians are doing to Ukraine, there would be huge protests, much larger than what we had during the Vietnam war. The worst surprise for me was that the Russians did not protest at all. Some anemic protests during the first week, and that was it. From what I am reading, over 80% still support Putin.
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I'm not sure you're aware but all those people who protested I believe are going to get long prison sentences. Most people who do object to the war will be scared to speak out or protest. There's a youtube channel that translates Russian's opinions on different matters. Many of them are too scared to even speak frankly to a youtube channel on matters of the state.
 
ThierryFabregas said:
I'm not sure you're aware but all those people who protested I believe are going to get long prison sentences. Most people who do object to the war will be scared to speak out or protest. There's a youtube channel that translates Russian's opinions on different matters. Many of them are too scared to even speak frankly to a youtube channel on matters of the state.
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It's also an age-group thing to some extent. Older Russians get all their info. from state-controlled TV and see nothing but propaganda lies, whilst younger Russians get more info. from the internet and social media - and are also liable for military conscription, especially if a general mobilisation is announced - and so are less supportive of Putin.
 
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This is north of Izium: 49.289999, 37.231373 .... so it looks like the re-supply of the very large number Russian troops in and around Izium is in trouble.

 
If Europe is going to move away from Russian oil and gas in the next few years, who will become Russias new customers?

Is a pipeline to China in the works and do they have enough demand to cover all the lost revenues to Europe?
 
Attila said:
If Europe is going to move away from Russian oil and gas in the next few years, who will become Russias new customers?

Is a pipeline to China in the works and do they have enough demand to cover all the lost revenues to Europe?
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Soyuz Vostok pipeline
Gazprom is now looking to further extend its relationship with China by building the Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline, also called Soyuz Vostok. In a press release, the company said that its Chairman Alexey Miller had recently met the Deputy Prime Minister of Mongolia, Sainbuyan Amarsaikhan to discuss the implementation of the pipeline through Mongolia.

During the meeting, a design and survey work contract was signed for the construction of the pipeline that involves Mongolian companies to carry out land and archaeological surveys and assess the impact of the project on the environment, the press release said.

Last month, the feasibility report of the project was approved according to which the pipeline would see a 598-mile stretch run through Mongolian territory. The diameter of the pipes used would be 1.42 meters in diameter, or about 56 inches, with five compressor stations to be installed along the route to enable 50 billion cubic meters or 1.8 trillion cubic feet of gas to be sent to China.

If the deal with China goes through, Russia will also build an interconnector between its west and east-bound pipelines paving the way to redirect the gas, that is currently being supplied to Europe, towards China, thereby reducing its dependence on European imports.

"Work on the Soyuz Vostok gas pipeline project is actively and successfully progressing. A month ago, the results of the feasibility study were approved, and today a design contract has been signed. This means that the project has moved to the practical stage," said Alexey Miller in the press release.
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That could soon change. Moscow and Beijing are close to agreeing on a second pipeline – the "Power of Siberia 2" – which would double gas exports from Russia to China, crossing through Mongolia and into the power-hungry industrial regions near Beijing.

Crucially, it also would join up Russia's internal gas network, connecting China with the same gas fields in Russia's Yamal peninsula that supply Europe.

"It does give Gazprom – as that major exporter – the optionality to direct gas to one market over another," Marzec-Manser told VOA.

That could give Russia considerable leverage, says Filip Medunic, who leads the Task Force for Strengthening Europe Against Economic Coercion at the European Council on Foreign Relations.

"Technically, it is hard to tell whether the pricing system will be designed in a way that there is going to be the possibility to sell to the highest bidder, but I think that Russia intent is definitely eyeing in this direction, to be able to use it as a leverage – at least rhetorically – in the coming decade," Medunic told VOA.

Construction of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, which connects Russia directly with Germany, was completed last year. Certification of the pipeline is currently suspended amid tensions between the West and Moscow.
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Edit - Apparently this is the largest construction project on the planet and I haven't even heard of it til today
 
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GlastonSpur said:
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GlastonSpur said:
That's 5 Raptors now hit ...

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This shows how important it was to get rid of the Moskva. Without their S-300 air defense offering long range protection every Russian item on and near Snake Island became a target. They should have brought some S-300 to the island before that incident, now it seems impossible for them to get the necessary reinforcement there to keep the island.
 
Attila said:
Edit - Apparently this is the largest construction project on the planet and I haven't even heard of it til today
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There’s good reason the Russians have previously not sold much to China. The transport infrastructure hasn’t been available and it was far easier to sell to Europe. Even this venture is likely to fail given that it will take too much time and China aren’t really incentivized and to use it as much as the Russians would like (imo).
 
GlastonSpur said:
This is north of Izium: 49.289999, 37.231373 .... so it looks like the re-supply of the very large number Russian troops in and around Izium is in trouble.

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Just east of the main N/S road and fairly close to Izium…nice. Hopefully that wasn’t the end of the barrage.
 
Looks like the Russians have enough


If this is true, they retreated from Snake Island, and even the helicopter that was destroyed there is claimed to have been intented to evacuate forces, not bring further reinforcements.
 
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