Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

[Raoul]

 

[Pintu]

The historically Eurosceptic Danes are very likely to abolish their defense opt-out via referendum today. This is the first referendum related to the EU held in a member state since the biggest one (brexit).

The tweet refers of course to Sweden and Finland joining NATO.

 

[harms]

It seems a lot of Ukrainians have been deported to Russia. Why are the Russians spending all that logistical capacity on deporting Ukrainians?

Basically copying Stalin’s politics on destroying national identities my moving the people out from their homes and sending them to the furtherest regions of the country. It’s not like Russia has an excess of population that they can repopulate captured Ukrainian territories with, so they need to somehow work around it and integrate a lot of Ukrainians into itself.

 

[harms]

You also have to wonder if all these Ukranians being deported aren't just being murdered as part of a mass genocide.

No, it doesn’t look like it, aside from those who don’t pass the initial “filtration” where they try to find ex-military fighters (some of those go to prisons but I wouldn’t be surprised if a lot of them are murdered on the spot).

I do a lot of volunteering to help relocated/deported (for the lack of a better word) Ukrainians — we even help them to move abroad, it’s possible even though Russia tries to make it as difficult as it can. A lot of them relocate to their relatives, some are being tricked and sent to far Eastern regions… a surprising amount of them, especially from Mariupol, believe the Russian point of view, which seems incredible to me. But I guess it’s a simple defensive mechanism multiplied by Russian propaganda that had been present in Mariupol from almost the very beginning.

 

[harms]

Erasing their identity as Ukrainian by deportation and forced adoption of children, which is being fast-tracked (allegedly), contribute towards meeting the standards of whether a genocide is taking place.

Not allegedly — it’s already official.

 

[Pintu]

"It would be arrogant and inappropriate to talk about war aims in this country. Only the Ukrainians and their President decide on the conditions for peace, @ZelenskyyUa! Our goal is that Putin doesn't win and Ukraine can defend itself."



We have been sending weapons to Ukraine since the beginning of the war, including heavy weapons. Gepard and Panzerhaubitze 2000 are nothing else. We coordinate closely with our partners and deliver what is useful - including the state-of-the-art IRIS-T system, which protects large cities from air raids.

 

[nimic]

Only roughly 1,000 Russian POWs? I thought there would a lot more than that if we have to believe the reports of disgruntlement and low morale. The Iraqis surrendered in large numbers during the Gulf War when their army was more or less in the same messy state as the Russian army now.

The Iraqi military was in a far worse state than the current Russian military. Ukraine's military is obviously not on the same level of the Americans invading Iraq either. With that in mind, it's not so surprising that not that many Russians are being captured. When they have been pushed back, they're probably either completely destroyed, or have managed to pull back with their injured before being captured.

I mean, I'm assuming.

 

[GlastonSpur]

Only roughly 1,000 Russian POWs? I thought there would a lot more than that if we have to believe the reports of disgruntlement and low morale. The Iraqis surrendered in large numbers during the Gulf War when their army was more or less in the same messy state as the Russian army now.

Yes, but some previous POWs will have already been traded for Ukrainian POWs during the past 3 months of war.

 

[NicolaSacco]

The Iraqi military was in a far worse state than the current Russian military. Ukraine's military is obviously not on the same level of the Americans invading Iraq either. With that in mind, it's not so surprising that not that many Russians are being captured. When they have been pushed back, they're probably either completely destroyed, or have managed to pull back with their injured before being captured.

I mean, I'm assuming.

They aren’t comparable, I agree. The Iraq war was fought mostly in huge flat expanses of desert against overwhelming air superiority. If you didn’t surrender you’d face almost certain death.

 

[nickm]

To be fair Simon Jenkins writes that article every time someone does sanctions, he's been doing versions of it for 20 years.

 

[the hea]

 

[shamans]

https://www.cnn.com/2022/06/01/europe/serbia-russian-gas-eu-analysis-intl-cmd/index.html

Here's another news article that pushes me towards the "do these sanctions even do anything" side of the room.

 

[marktan]

Desperately sad. And the same story will play out in the east in any city that resists.

The longer it goes on, the more Ukrainians will die, the more Russia will gain territory (regardless of how slowly), just an overall sad situation.

 

[YouOnlyLiveTwice]

https://www.cnn.com/2022/06/01/europe/serbia-russian-gas-eu-analysis-intl-cmd/index.html

Here's another news article that pushes me towards the "do these sanctions even do anything" side of the room.

Even if the sanctions do feck all, in principle trading with Russia in it's current state is moral bankrupty (i understand that much of europe is still dependent on russian gas and oil).

These sanctions should stay until Russia is out of Ukraine and Putin is gone.

 

[GlastonSpur]

https://www.cnn.com/2022/06/01/europe/serbia-russian-gas-eu-analysis-intl-cmd/index.html

Here's another news article that pushes me towards the "do these sanctions even do anything" side of the room.

The EU aims to reduce Russian gas imports by two thirds by the end of this year - any increased Serbian imports will be a tiny gain for Russia compared to the far larger loss of gas exports to the EU.

 

[Simbo]

https://www.cnn.com/2022/06/01/europe/serbia-russian-gas-eu-analysis-intl-cmd/index.html

Here's another news article that pushes me towards the "do these sanctions even do anything" side of the room.

We are slowly but surely heading toward an almost complete embargo of all things Russian in the western world, that could go on for decades.

I don't think any deep analysis is really needed to conclude if that "does anything".

Although how much of it has a real effect on the Ukranian war in the near term, I suppose, is up for debate.

 

[shamans]

We are slowly but surely heading toward an almost complete embargo of all things Russian in the western world, that could go on for decades.

I don't think any deep analysis is really needed to conclude if that "does anything".

Although how much of it has a real effect on the Ukranian war in the near term, I suppose, is up for debate.

Well, obviously if you stretch the impact out to decades it makes a difference, since even a million or two becomes compounding and so on but that's a pretty big assumption to make I think.

Again, western world may be powerful but countries like India and Serbia are not little satellite states like Belarus. China will be a big variable as well since I think 16% of their trade is with them. You start including developing nations like Pakistan, Sri Lanka and the likes and it could be enough to sustain exports.

 

[Simbo]

Well, obviously if you stretch the impact out to decades it makes a difference, since even a million or two becomes compounding and so on but that's a pretty big assumption to make I think.

Again, western world may be powerful but countries like India and Serbia are not little satellite states like Belarus. China will be a big variable as well since I think 16% of their trade is with them. You start including developing nations like Pakistan, Sri Lanka and the likes and it could be enough to sustain exports.

This might speed things up.

 

[Zehner]

Well, obviously if you stretch the impact out to decades it makes a difference, since even a million or two becomes compounding and so on but that's a pretty big assumption to make I think.

Again, western world may be powerful but countries like India and Serbia are not little satellite states like Belarus. China will be a big variable as well since I think 16% of their trade is with them. You start including developing nations like Pakistan, Sri Lanka and the likes and it could be enough to sustain exports.

I mean, at the very least it is hard to imagine how the sanctions don't lead to an increase of transactional costs. Corona should've shown which impact supply chains and trade routes have, how difficult it is to rearrange these things, etc. So even if Russia could just import everything they need by taking detours through complicit countries, it will increase the costs of all their operations. Intermediaries will demand their share, the time spans increase and logistics become more difficult, etc.

And then there's also the supply and demand thing. You can't just sell what you would've sold to Europe to somebody else. China and India may trade with Russia but they still have their own interests in mind. Which means that they'll buy the resources they sit on for dumping prices. And the same way the West now needs LNG terminals to become less dependent on Russian gas, this infrastructure needs to exist for them to sell their gas to India or China as well. Or they need to build a pipeline like Nordstream for it to work. Such projects will only become more difficult due to the sanctions and general boycott as well. And they need to outpace the West as well - the EU alone has 10 times the GDP of Russia, so good luck on that.

So overall, it's hard to imagine how these sanctions won't hit Russia very hard.

 

[Raoul]

This might speed things up.

A complimentary round of polonium for the derivatives panel.

 

[Raoul]

 

[Frosty]

Zelenskiy: Ukraine losing up to 100 soldiers every day
Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, has conceded that Kyiv’s forces are currently suffering up to 100 fatalities and 500 wounded every day.

In an interview with the US Newsmax television channel that aired yesterday, Zelenskiy said:

The situation is very difficult; we’re losing 60-100 soldiers per day as killed in action and something around 500 people as wounded in action. So we are holding our defensive perimeters.

The most difficult situation is in the east of Ukraine and southern Donetsk and Luhansk, Zelenskiy added.

 

[Cheimoon]

"It would be arrogant and inappropriate to talk about war aims in this country. Only the Ukrainians and their President decide on the conditions for peace, @ZelenskyyUa! Our goal is that Putin doesn't win and Ukraine can defend itself."



We have been sending weapons to Ukraine since the beginning of the war, including heavy weapons. Gepard and Panzerhaubitze 2000 are nothing else. We coordinate closely with our partners and deliver what is useful - including the state-of-the-art IRIS-T system, which protects large cities from air raids.

That's good messaging from Scholz for once.

 

[the hea]

 

[Pintu]

The historically Eurosceptic Danes are very likely to abolish their defense opt-out via referendum today. This is the first referendum related to the EU held in a member state since the biggest one (brexit).

The tweet refers of course to Sweden and Finland joining NATO.

Update on this.

 

[Mike Smalling]

Update on this.

A complete no-brainer for me - voted yes. You only had to look at the politicians arguing for no, to know that you had to go the other way.

 

[GlastonSpur]

A complete no-brainer for me - voted yes. You only had to look at the politicians arguing for no, to know that you had to go the other way.

What sort of politicians argued for "no"? Those towards the more extremes of both left and right?

 

[Pintu]

A complete no-brainer for me - voted yes. You only had to look at the politicians arguing for no, to know that you had to go the other way.

Haha. I watched TV2 briefly after 8. Looked like some funny meltdown from the Nej side.

 

[Gehrman]

What sort of politicians argued for "no"? Those towards the more extremes of both left and right?

Gammons

 

[Maagge]

What sort of politicians argued for "no"? Those towards the more extremes of both left and right?

The party furthest to the left, Enhedslisten (The Unity List), and Dansk Folkeparti (Danish People Party, their politics are in the name). Probably a few other right wingers too, but those were the main ones.

 

[GlastonSpur]

Well, obviously if you stretch the impact out to decades it makes a difference, since even a million or two becomes compounding and so on but that's a pretty big assumption to make I think.

Again, western world may be powerful but countries like India and Serbia are not little satellite states like Belarus. China will be a big variable as well since I think 16% of their trade is with them. You start including developing nations like Pakistan, Sri Lanka and the likes and it could be enough to sustain exports.

Sanctions aren't just about limiting Russian exports. The bigger factors are limiting or stopping access to international financial systems and limiting Russian imports - especially their imports of things they need to keep their industries going.

 

[Pintu]

What sort of politicians argued for "no"? Those towards the more extremes of both left and right?

3 of the 13 parliament parties. 2 parties to the right and surprisingly only one among the far-left parties (Enhedslisten). Many small left parties actually endorsed the Yes.

And among the right-wing, there was something that surprised me. DKF (one of the "Tories" parties) supported the Yes. But their youth wing campaigned for "No".

 

[GlastonSpur]

The party furthest to the left, Enhedslisten (The Unity List), and Dansk Folkeparti (Danish People Party, their politics are in the name). Probably a few other right wingers too, but those were the main ones.

In other words, I'd guess the parties that far are more interested in damaging and undermining "the system" (including freedom and democracy) than they are in opposing Russian fascism.

 

[Mike Smalling]

What sort of politicians argued for "no"? Those towards the more extremes of both left and right?

Far right mostly. The far left doesn’t want us to be in NATO though, but they are also a bunch of former commies.

 

[Maagge]

In other words, I'd guess the parties that far are more interested in damaging and undermining "the system" (including freedom and democracy) than they are in opposing Russian fascism.

I wouldn't say they're interested in undermining the system. They just have two different reasons for wanting less EU. The vote doesn't really have much to do with the war anyway, although it was probably brought up due to the war as it would be easier to get it through now.
Enhedslisten is coming around to the idea of EU as they're more or less the most green party in parliament and have realised you need other countries onboard to combat climate change. Dansk Folkeparti are your usual nationalist ass hats.

 

[Gehrman]

In other words, I'd guess the parties that far are more interested in damaging and undermining "the system" (including freedom and democracy) than they are in opposing Russian fascism.

No honestly, it was more about not sending Danish troops to fight operations in Africa and various other continents. Some are weary of Danish soldiers being sent to in foreign wars. Or at least it seems to me.

 

[VorZakone]

WASHINGTON, June 1 (Reuters) - The Biden administration plans to sell Ukraine four MQ-1C Gray Eagle drones that can be armed with Hellfire missiles for battlefield use against Russia, three people familiar with the situation said.

The sale of the General Atomics-made drones could still be blocked by Congress, the sources said, adding that there is also a risk of a last minute policy reversal that could scuttle the plan, which has been under review at the Pentagon for several weeks.

https://www.reuters.com/business/ae...rones-ukraine-coming-days-sources-2022-06-01/

 

[VorZakone]

 

[VorZakone]

 

[Spark]

Question for any military hardware buffs. What are the US not sending? Seems like the Ukrainians are pretty tooled up and modernised. Other than aircraft, is there any specific “game changing” artillery system that the yanks/NATO have that is still blocked?