Could they not embed a few mercenary types with the requisite know-how? Maybe deploy quicker?
Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion
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We can sacrifice our way of living, I can guarantee you that majority will support and no amount of Russian trolls will help to shift a public perception, significantly. You’re doing your job though I understand. Ukraine will win long before any economic crisis.
I miss that guy. Nucks too, who had like a radar for any post about the US helping win WWII or someone referring to brown bears as grizzlies. Those were the days...
You're living in a fantasy if you believe that people's willingness to sacrifice living standards for what, for most, is a foreign war has no end. And not everyone who disgrees with you is a troll or Russian troll.
Ukraine will win this long before Europe will feel any significant economic crisis besides what’s already materializing. The cut off from Russian oil is forecasted to have a really small GDP slowdown in terms of EU economic growth.
Michael isn't a troll, and certainly not a Russian one.
I never called him one, he’s just a useful idiot of which there are plenty.
Possible. That would mean pushing the Russians back to pre-Feb positions. I think if this war goes on for a long time you would see that, or something close to it, because of the land Russia has taken. They won't be able to hold it all and insurgency is guaranteed. But what they need are quick gains. I don't think time is on their side, in terms of economic factors. Not that Russia will be doing great in a few months economically either, but the gas supply to Europe in winter becomes much more crucial than it is now. Plus the food supply.
Long-term Europe can manage a move away from Russian oil but it's just about time again and comes back down to battlefield/economic conditions.
Everyone is a useful idiot if we get into that game. Best left alone.
Well, Ukraine is a signee of the UN’s anti-mercenary agreement, so I’d say no.
You see I don’t get into the topics I’m not familiar with to not propagate the misleading information despite your best efforts to turn this into whataboutism again. On this topic you have been constantly on the worng side of it from the beginning because of how little you understand Russian regime.
None of this has been whataboutism and anyone following the news knows what the economic forecast is.
Really? The moment I mentioned the genocide done by Russians you have been quick to point to Saudis without me ever mentioning them as an alternative source of oil.
Nope, but you're one hell of a cynical bit choosing to shit on the West in this particular context. Your moral compass is just so wrong that I'd be surprised if you find your way out of a parking lot.
Yes, you spoke about not supporting genocidal fascist regimes. In the context of oil supply, that's not a great line to take as there aren't many OPEC (OPEC+) members which aren't some form of authoritarian. All the largest members are.
My point was pretty basic:
What he says.
I don't have the energy to quote back and forward because you or someone else isn't happy with reality.
How am I shitting on the West by pointing out very basic and realistic facts? Which points exactly are anti-Western? The ones where I say non-western countries, including Russia, are authoritarian? You're as ridiculous as ever.
It's a very basic economic issue as is being highlighted, now, by all major western news outlets. The tweet above is from newsweek.
Read this for more context (pro-Western FA):
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/saudi-arabia/2022-06-03/bowing-prince
He reminds me of that pro-guns guy John Lott, with whom Piers Morgan clashed really hard on CNN in the wake of the Sandy Hook massacre. I despise Piers as the next guy does, but I was fully behind him on that issue at the time. Lott was just a total bellend trying to come up with fake equivalency.
Fact remains that Russia just does not deserve to have any of its reputation restored until the remnants of Putin's regime and other war criminals are either imprisoned for their crimes or exiled. It will take as long as it has to, but that grave was dug from the moment the first shot was fired.
This is not a foreign war. This is a European war and a pretty big one. Europe has to wake up and sort it out. If we don't want to do it militarily (which we probably should have ages ago to prevent this whole thing dragging out like it has) , then we have to do it economically and take the hit.
If Putin gets his way, there is going to be high tension in the EU between Eastern and Western Europe for a long time to come. In that scenario, Brexit might be the best thing the UK has ever done.
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Europeans have to defend against the Russians in Europe, because Russia is attacking a country in Europe. Ukraine wanted to join EU, and the EU has to defend Ukraine.
If the Saudis are attacking Yemen, the Muslim countries around Yemen have the responsibility to do something about it. Since they do nothing, it is perfectly fine if the Europeans also do nothing.
So, what you are saying is that, in your opinion, Putin is bad, but he is a winner, so Europe should just accept it and instead of trying to beat him, Europe should stop helping Ukraine defend against Russia and make a deal with Putin.
Also USA is selfish, and since USA did not punish Saudi Arabia for killing Khashoggi, a US citizen, it is understandable if Europe does not punish Russia for killing a few hundred thousand Ukrainians and destroying a European country. After all, Europe can make a lot of money helping Putin.
In my opinion, this kind of thinking is much worse than just saying straight out that Putin is right, like paxi did. Paxi was saying that Putin did not kill children, this says that Putin is killing children but let's forget it because Europe can make money if we help Putin. Paxi was just brainwashed, this opinion is pure evil.
Pretty sure Iran is helping Yemen...it's not "fine" to do nothing about Yemen. But being wankers ref Yemen doesn't make it correct to also be wankers ref Ukraine. Two wrongs don't make a right and all that.
Putin thinks he can outlast the west. He thinks this because he has to, it is all he has. It is another of his miscalculations about russian strength. Russia's strategic weakness only grows the longer this goes on and while he might be blind to it, others in his regime won't be.
You've got to love the incredulity at someone saying "it's only money" when talking about helping to stop a country being wiped out. Money, a made up construct of man which can be created out of thin air. War and death, pretty bad, pretty irreversible.
You seem to think US/EU is going to force Ukraine to the negotiating table at some point? Is that right?
Odd analysis. Even if Europe was floating on to a "massive US energy hook", so what? Better to get the gas from an ally than an enemy. It's not as as the US and Europe aren't friendly with a common culture and decades of being partners!
There's a lot of wishful thinking in this post that confuses russian tactical successes with strategic gains. Let russia bleed itself out, their army is closer to collapsing than it is to winning. It is an odd definition of winning that has Russia temporarily picking up a few destroyed villages in return for the wholesale shattering of its economy, army, alliances, reputation and future.
Yes. Well what I am saying is that obviously when the house next to yours is on fire you will be more motivated to get out and help, than when a house in a different town is on fire.
This is human nature, yes. You'd like to think we're better than that by now but the fact is we're not.
It's weird, Russians don't seem to believe oil and gas can ever be replaced as our primary sources of energy. It's already happening.
https://ember-climate.org/insights/research/global-electricity-review-2022/
Pretty much sums it up.
Of course saying never is stupid but it's a project that will take decades.
Probably not the thread to post about it although it’s quite disheartening to see the language used there.
Are you sure it will take decades? California has already managed to run 100% on renewable energy for a little while. Sure it is not already there, but it is not that far away, either. California is the 5th largest economy in the world. France can do it, too. And Germany. If they make it a priority, I don't think they'll need decades.
https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2022/05/02/california-renewable-energy-100/9612901002/
What did people put in their cars?
I think you are wrong and you sound a bit scared to me which is understandable given what is predicted to be coming.
1,
If the build up of forces had lead to a capitulation to his demands then Putin would have won. If the initial advance had gone to plan and brutal repression of Ukraine had destroyed any insurrection then Putin would have won. Neither of those things happened so now there are only types of losses from this point forward. In the sense that Russia will never be better off or safer because of this invasion.
2,
Its been just over 100 days. So the idea its long past time Europe starts to think about dealing with Russia is nonsense. The war has only just begun. Russia had first actor advantage, had put Ukraine in the mobilization trap and had 10 months preparation advantage by the end of February. Strategically the number of good options and directions of attack played against Ukraine as it didn't know where the attack would be coming from.
These advantages are running down or gone.
I think the only way left for Russia to force what it wants on Ukraine is full mobilization in Russia and Putin would have already done that if he calculated it as best for him.
3,
At the start of this thread I posted about where would Putin and Russia be if this war became a long one, I don't think he survives. There were very few people who thought Ukraine would survive six months. Wars often ebb and flow and you never know the breaking point until it is reached and often then only in hindsight.
If the Ukrainians are smart they wait until they have everything in place. The better AA systems ready with well trained operators and the new heavy artillery in place with likewise fully trained personnel. They might only get one shot at retaking their country but as long as they are willing to try the west will support them although there will always be dissent on the subject that's democracy for you.
Lastly,
Overenthusiasm on the predictions of the timing of Russia's defeat is understandable. The suffering is awful to watch and everyone wants it over with. The people who predicted this war thought six months at least before the cracks in Russian strategy and its economy become undeniable.
I am not sure what is included in these calculations, I have not read the details, only the newspaper articles. However, California is not isolated. California can even produce 200% energy from renewables, and sell the excess to other States.
But anyway, eliminate all gas and oil for the electric grid and for household and industrial production. Isn't that enough for you?
(Google says "passenger vehicles consume only about 26 percent of the oil used worldwide").
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To be completed yes.
No country has to be completely carbon neutral before Russian fuels become optional rather than a necessity.
Always confuses me that this guy is so happy to confirm Russian defeats and losses.
Russia has thrown everything at this city... but don't worry, Putin will still win the war
Russia has thrown everything at this city... but don't worry, Putin will still win the war
Always confuses me that this guy is so happy to confirm Russian defeats and losses.
Russia has thrown everything at this city... but don't worry, Putin will still win the war
That can’t be true because the number of Russian victories has been escalating. Must be Western propaganda.
/s
In fairness passenger vehicles will go electric fairly soon most likely (there'll be more electric car sales than fossil fuel in most of the developed world in the next 10 years or so). The difficulty will come in transitioning away in shipping and aviation as well as heavy industry. We're working on it but that won't be quick. We need to throw money and effort at it like crazy now in order to be able to do it in time to save the climate.
The Russians won't be poor over night, particularly given their natural mineral wealth which we will need in order to produce low carbon energy solutions, but we could make a really big dent in oil and gas sales in the next 10 years if the will is there.
Apparently, the way batteries are made now, there's not enough material to transition everyone to electric vehicles. Maybe there's enough for the US and the rich European countries, but they also have to be replace pretty often, sounds like a mess. Of course, the big hope is next generation battery technology.