Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

The fact that whole “but what if he uses nukes” argument/mindset exists is the single greatest ‘win’ for Russian propaganda in a long time.
 
RoyH1 said:
He doesn't need to wait that long. In two months the Republicans might control Congress and all he needs is to stop the flow of modern weapons to Ukraine. And high energy prices over the course of the winter could cause a lot of social unrest in countries like Germany or Italy.
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Republicans in congress have overwhelmingly voted in favor of all of the military aid packages to Ukraine. It's Trump winning 2024 which would be the actual risk.
 
hasanejaz88 said:
If they were before they certainly aren't now.
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This is a hugely relevant point. This war will be talked about for the next hundred years. It will , rightly or wrongly become part of the storyline of good vs evil. I’m not even sure that at this point Putin has any real plans to dominate more than the areas he already holds. I think he wants to weaken his enemy as much as possible so that they come to the negotiating table more willing to compromise.
 
MTF said:
Republicans in congress have overwhelmingly voted in favor of all of the military aid packages to Ukraine. It's Trump winning 2024 which would be the actual risk.
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I really, really hope you’re right. I think you are but I’ve made a few predictions about US politics I’m the last decade that have turned out to be quite wrong,
 
Walrus said:
The fact that whole “but what if he uses nukes” argument/mindset exists is the single greatest ‘win’ for Russian propaganda in a long time.
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Built around a simplistic image of maniacal Putin with his finger hovering over a red button. Ignoring the fact that there are various other people involved in the execution of that decision who might have second thoughts and that Putin himself is a brutal bully who has grossly miscalculated rather than a foaming at the mouth lunatic. But, fair play, the idea keeps the useful idiots in the West busy.
 
RoyH1 said:
He doesn't need to wait that long. In two months the Republicans might control Congress and all he needs is to stop the flow of modern weapons to Ukraine. And high energy prices over the course of the winter could cause a lot of social unrest in countries like Germany or Italy.
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The republican leaders in Congress support Ukraine. And you don't need *all* Republicans, you only need a few.

Also, even if Italy and Germany do nothing, USA alone can help Ukraine win. Of course, Poland and other NATO countries will also contribute.

At this point, I think only Trump can help Putin.
 
Dr. Dwayne said:
Jesus tittyfecking Christ. Ronald Reagan is rolling over in his grave.
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I happened to view the comments under an article in Task & Purpose the other day and it's mindboggling how many Americans think Russia is defending itself from oppression. Some posters championed Putin, Kim Jong-un, and Trump as the last standing freedom fighters against globalists.
 
Anyway, it is a good idea if the West helps Ukraine win this war by next summer. And "win" means kicking Putin out of Ukraine, Crimea included.

There is still a lot that the USA can do to help Ukraine. For example, it can provide F-16s and F-18s (and anyway the plan was to replace F-18s with F-35s).
 
MrMarcello said:
I happened to view the comments under an article in Task & Purpose the other day and it's mindboggling how many Americans think Russia is defending itself from oppression. Some posters championed Putin, Kim Jong-un, and Trump as the last standing freedom fighters against globalists.
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Culture war innit. But social media isn’t a problem. That’s just moral panic.
 
I bet we will see much more of it soon from the fresh batch of mobilised soldiers with zero training.

 
Seems that FSB were extremely busy today with plenty of videos of them stopping "planned terrorist attacks" and just dismantling bombs casually, most people unwrap the Christmas gifts more carefully than they disarm "bombs". All of the suspects are of course Ukrainians who came to Russia through Estonia.



 
dove said:
Seems that FSB were extremely busy today with plenty of videos of them stopping "planned terrorist attacks" and just dismantling bombs casually, most people unwrap the Christmas gifts more carefully than they disarm "bombs". All of the suspects are of course Ukrainians who came to Russia through Estonia.



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So how does this work then, they grab a random civilian for this newsreel? Or actor?
 
Hopefully the difference between an army whose weapons, ammo, soldier training, motivation and morale has constantly got better, and an army that is just getting worse in the same categories, will continue to get exposed in the battlefront. The UA has about two months to make significant gains (Nova Kakjovka in order to cut Crimea, increase the pressure on Kherson, Lugansk and maybe Zaporizhzhia), and then hope that the winter takes a toll in Russia's excessively extended and poorly supplied frontlines. Forcing the collapse of RF looks like the way to go.
 
Not that it matters much but some interesting votes nonetheless.

 
calodo2003 said:
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I know that some pieces of hardware can sure have extreme longevity and that Syrian rebels were seen using the first successful assault rifle from WW2. But seriously, I don't think I would want to want to drag hardware and ordnance out of the Smithsonian if I had to fight against a foreign enemy.
 
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RedDevilQuebecois said:
I know that some pieces of hardware can sure have extreme longevity and that Syrian rebels were seen using the first successful assault rifle from WW2. But seriously, I don't think I would want to want to drag hardware and ordnance out the Smithsonian if I had to fight against a foreign enemy.
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A friend of mine who lived in Russia for some years told me that he was told that the Russian armed forces had thousands of vintage tanks covered in oil in bunkers and warehouses. I have no idea about the oil thing. Probably helps them not rust.
 
frostbite said:
All these "important thinkers" fail to consider that Russia invaded Ukraine exactly because Ukraine did not join NATO! That was the main failure of the West, that Germany and France did not accept Ukraine into NATO. If Ukraine had joined NATO in 2008, we would never have a war, as we did not have a war in the Baltic States that also have a lot of Russians in their population.
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I'm not sure if Ukraine accession into NATO in 2008 was realistic regardless of what western countries did. All the former Eastern Bloc countries that joined NATO after 1990, as far as I can find it, had overwhelming public support for it, while Ukrainian public was consistently against it.
 
RedDevilQuebecois said:
I know that some pieces of hardware can sure have extreme longevity and that Syrian rebels were seen using the first successful assault rifle from WW2. But seriously, I don't think I would want to want to drag hardware and ordnance out of the Smithsonian if I had to fight against a foreign enemy.
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The B-52 first flew in 1952 and is planned to continue service for another 30 years. It's been upgraded to the point that it's basically the Ship of Theseus at this point, minus the air frame. Russian artillery from Stalingrad probably wasn't intended to be used again though.
 
Lemoor said:
I'm not sure if Ukraine accession into NATO in 2008 was realistic regardless of what western countries did. All the former Eastern Bloc countries that joined NATO after 1990, as far as I can find it, had overwhelming public support for it, while Ukrainian public was consistently against it.
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Why was it realistic for Lithuania and not for Ukraine? In my opinion, (in retrospect of course), Ukraine joining NATO in 2008 would have saved us from many deaths, destruction and economic problems today. Bush, Obama, McCain all supported it. Merkel and Sarkozy did not want it. Unfortunately, Bush was not able to change Merkel's mind. If Merkel had supported Ukraine in 2008, history would be very different today. Unfortunately, Merkel made a lot of mistakes, with Ukraine, with Georgia, with Russia, with Greece.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukrai...raine_to_join_the_NATO_Membership_Action_Plan

"US President George W. Bush and both nominees for President of the United States in the 2008 election, U.S. senator Barack Obama and U.S. senator John McCain, did offer backing to Ukraine's membership of NATO."

Here are some details of the failed negotiations:

https://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/03/world/europe/03nato.html
 
I'm guessing the entire southern front will collapse once the Ukrainians retake Kherson city and surround the Russians from the south.

 
dal said:
I see the end game here as Ukraine taking everything back with russia still having the official position that the four regions are still theres.

Really unlikely Russia uses nuclear weapons even when they lose crimea.

Of course Ukraine could stop at Crimea if pressured by the west however I think the west want them to take Crimea as-well because Zelensky’s rhetoric on Crimea has changed massively since the start of the war when he wanted Russian troops to withdraw to pre February boundaries.

It’s all or nothing here.
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I can't see this as being an end game for the Russians. Putin will certainly not capitulate by starting a war that sees him lose land. It would weaken him at home, which is a non-starter for him.
 
RoyH1 said:
A friend of mine who lived in Russia for some years told me that he was told that the Russian armed forces had thousands of vintage tanks covered in oil in bunkers and warehouses. I have no idea about the oil thing. Probably helps them not rust.
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It's gives them richer flavour, we also do the same with pickles.
 
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