Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

This seems to be the new line among the Russian propaganda agents in the US. It's ridicolous how out of touch with what is going on in the world you have to be to believe something like this.
 

Wow, he's still doing those! Fair play to him, I hope that he's keeping (relatively) safe, especially considering that he has shown his face before.
 
This seems to be the new line among the Russian propaganda agents in the US. It's ridicolous how out of touch with what is going on in the world you have to be to believe something like this.



100% spot on. Exactly the same narrative being pushed by ru trolls in Polish internet.
 
The stronger the sanctions, the more open windows for russian tycoons. The tsar needs their money to keep them tanks rolling.
 
This is a very good analogy when it comes to the context of China's so-called peace plan. Imperial Japan had control over the most important areas in the country at the time.

 
This is a very good analogy when it comes to the context of China's so-called peace plan. Imperial Japan had control over the most important areas in the country at the time.



I mean that is reasonable, right?

If there is one thing we all know about Berlin in the Cold War, is that it was a peaceful, open, and demilitarised city.
 
If Russia is able to take the hill north of Ivanivske the last road out of Bakhmut will be under Russian fire control.


Yes, it seems they want and need Bakhmut now for propaganda reasons. The next hours/days will be critical and ukrainian command needs to take a decision fast.

 
Ukrainian former air-force colonels Robert Svitan's interview to our Estonian media.

My forecast is this: by the summer, the Ukrainian army will be at the Sea of Azov, in the summer the Ukrainain army will clear the parts of the Crimean peninsula and Kherson Oblast, which are located on the left bank of the Dnieper, and from the end of the summer we can start dealing with Donbas. If the Western countries continue to supply the Ukrainian army in such volumes as in January and February, by the end of the year the Ukrainian army will complete the maneuver I described in Donbas and secure its positions on the Russian border. Yes, it will be difficult to defend yourself there, but I think everything will work out.
 
Seems like UAF are finally withdrawing from Bakhmut, it served its purpose.

Seems like they have no choice if they don't want to risk another Mariupol with thousands of soldiers getting surrounded and grinded down. And we also saw how Russia treated those who surrendered. It's way smarter to withdraw and use those battle hardened troops for later counter offensives when western armor finally arrives.

Russia has 2 important reasons to take Bakhmut now. Of course for propaganda reasons after one year of war, they want to present another city after months of withdrawings and stalemates.
The other reason I believe Russia's storm on Bakhmut now is also a consequence of western big announced help in MBTs and IFVs. They know Ukraine will counter attack somewhere when the armor arrives in early spring, because Ukraine is clearly preparing something and since a bulk of their forces are in constant battle around Bakhmut, they want to solve that problem now to be able to strenghen other frontline sections.

It would have been way smarter to train Ukrainian troops in secret on those MBTs and IFVs and when announcing those deliveries, they would have been ready. Now, they need to train the troops first for at least a month and that gives Russia time to prepare and take action. The west needs to start thinking ahead in those things.
 
Seems like they have no choice if they don't want to risk another Mariupol with thousands of soldiers getting surrounded and grinded down. And we also saw how Russia treated those who surrendered. It's way smarter to withdraw and use those battle hardened troops for later counter offensives when western armor finally arrives.

Russia has 2 important reasons to take Bakhmut now. Of course for propaganda reasons after one year of war, they want to present another city after months of withdrawings and stalemates.
The other reason I believe Russia's storm on Bakhmut now is also a consequence of western big announced help in MBTs and IFVs. They know Ukraine will counter attack somewhere when the armor arrives in early spring, because Ukraine is clearly preparing something and since a bulk of their forces are in constant battle around Bakhmut, they want to solve that problem now to be able to strenghen other frontline sections.

It would have been way smarter to train Ukrainian troops in secret on those MBTs and IFVs and when announcing those deliveries, they would have been ready. Now, they need to train the troops first for at least a month and that gives Russia time to prepare and take action. The west needs to start thinking ahead in those things.
Another way to see this is that Russia lost a massive amount of troops and equipment by rushing ill prepared offensives now. Probably wouldn't have happened this intensively if they thought they had time.
 
It's also a really shit propaganda win if they take Bakhmut now and in a month's time they've lost it again. Fingers crossed!
 
Another way to see this is that Russia lost a massive amount of troops and equipment by rushing ill prepared offensives now. Probably wouldn't have happened this intensively if they thought they had time.

Of course, but Russia doesn't care about their own troops and even less for Wagner mercenaries, while Ukraine needs every man. Even with a 1:3 ratio, Russia is satisfied I think. They gladly exchange 3 prisoners for one ua soldier.
 
It would have been way smarter to train Ukrainian troops in secret on those MBTs and IFVs and when announcing those deliveries, they would have been ready.

This would probably not be possible. It would only work if the West was as united in their support of Ukraine as Russia thinks. In reality these are all democracies with complex internal political debates of their own. Putting it simply, if there was no open, public debate about giving tanks to Ukraine, it wouldn't have happened.
 
This would probably not be possible. It would only work if the West was as united in their support of Ukraine as Russia thinks. In reality these are all democracies with complex internal political debates of their own. Putting it simply, if there was no open, public debate about giving tanks to Ukraine, it wouldn't have happened.

I'm not talking about the debate of giving those tanks, but simply to plan ahead and train troops for when the time comes. After one year of war, I'm pretty sure most of the older soviet ua tanks are destroyed or broken at this point. There have to be many tankers without a tank. So why not train them if they're currently out of work anyways instead of using them as infantry in trenches or let them sit at home and wait for armor deliveries.
It would definetly have been possible to train a couple of hundred tankers on our tanks without holding debates and press conferences. Or even better, while debating heavy armor deliveries, they could have been training them in silence and deceive Russia on the official schedule as a result. What would have been the worst outcome, to train a few hundred people for nothing? And the best outcome? Russia would have been caught with their pants down. I think, the upside is definetly worth it in such a scenario. In war there are always uncertainties and to train a couple hundred soldiers prospectively is definetly not a big problem.

It's the same about the F-16 debates now. Ukraine has 100% way more pilots right now than planes. Just train them on western jets and if the decision is made in the future to supply them hopefully, they will be instantly ready. The other way around would mean a one year delay or how long it takes to train pilots.
 
Ukraine withdrawing from Bakhmut (if that is indeed what is happening) makes sense from a military point of view. It's not great for the civilians still there though.
 
Ukraine withdrawing from Bakhmut (if that is indeed what is happening) makes sense from a military point of view. It's not great for the civilians still there though.

I agree; I don’t think the aim of Ukraine is to not ever cede an inch of ground (as Hitler did in the East). They should be proud of the defence of Bakhmut. I think the Russian attacks started in May of last year. 9 months to capture a small town with limited strategic value, is no kind of victory for the Russians, however they choose to portray it.
As for whether it makes sense for Ukraine to leave now, or to leave next month, we can’t conclude either way. They may calculate that Russia is losing 1-200 experienced troops a day, and that their own losses are a price worth paying to achieve that.
 
I agree; I don’t think the aim of Ukraine is to not ever cede an inch of ground (as Hitler did in the East). They should be proud of the defence of Bakhmut. I think the Russian attacks started in May of last year. 9 months to capture a small town with limited strategic value, is no kind of victory for the Russians, however they choose to portray it.
As for whether it makes sense for Ukraine to leave now, or to leave next month, we can’t conclude either way. They may calculate that Russia is losing 1-200 experienced troops a day, and that their own losses are a price worth paying to achieve that.
There are some rumors saying that UAF did not commit many of its armored vehicles to the defense of the city. Zelensky kept mentioning the city by name in many of his speeches and stated how they would fight to the end, etc.

It made me think (looking for the positive here) that UAF probably has some plan to trick the Russians with their offensive. It's not that their offensive is a secret plan, but the execution of it would be interesting.
 
There are some rumors saying that UAF did not commit many of its armored vehicles to the defense of the city. Zelensky kept mentioning the city by name in many of his speeches and stated how they would fight to the end, etc.

It made me think (looking for the positive here) that UAF probably has some plan to trick the Russians with their offensive. It's not that their offensive is a secret plan, but the execution of it would be interesting.

Ukraine should have masses of heavy equipment in reserve, everything we know they have and saw roll through Kharkiv, we just haven't seen it on the front lines for 5 months or so. They've been able to hold off Russia's biggest efforts around Bakhmut, Vuhledar, Kremina, etc with artillery, mortor, ATGM's and manpower. They've not needed to risk putting tank brigades in range of Russian artillery. If they really do want to hold Bakhmut no matter what, I suspect they have the ability, just depends on what they are willing to risk.
 
IF this is true, it's still unconfirmed, it's probably the biggest equipment loss for Russia since the sinking of Moskva. I believe Russia only have 7 of these planes and they are an extremly important asset for the airforces.
 
" AU forces, including but not limited to 17th Armored Brigade and the 3rd Assault Brigade (ex-Azov) lead a counterattack, with the main target appearing to be the garden shop region. Currently, the RUS attack from the north on Bakhmut not only collapsed, but the AU came to the rear of the Russian grouping.1/ "

"The situation is very dynamic and various information is coming. The Ukrainians also counterattack near the village of Krasne. Contrary to previous information, there is no retreat from eastern Bakhmut, only AU counterattack there. It's getting really interesting. Additional UA reserves are to enter the action."

 
" AU forces, including but not limited to 17th Armored Brigade and the 3rd Assault Brigade (ex-Azov) lead a counterattack, with the main target appearing to be the garden shop region. Currently, the RUS attack from the north on Bakhmut not only collapsed, but the AU came to the rear of the Russian grouping.1/ "

"The situation is very dynamic and various information is coming. The Ukrainians also counterattack near the village of Krasne. Contrary to previous information, there is no retreat from eastern Bakhmut, only AU counterattack there. It's getting really interesting. Additional UA reserves are to enter the action."


Seeing a lot about this right now... if true that would be a massive success for Ukraine.
 
Seeing a lot about this right now... if true that would be a massive success for Ukraine.

Yeah agreed. To be honest I feel like even if they withdrew now it’s been an absolute neat grinder for the Russians. They have endless untrained conscripts but they’re losing experienced soldiers and equipment, both of which will take considerable time to replace. And it’s taken them 9 fcuking months.
 
@Sir Matt This is worth a read.

Taiwan and weapons of mass destruction (Wikipedia)

Their nuclear program was advancing well until the US told Taiwan to shut it down by 1987, which was 1-2 years away of becoming fully operational with the delivery system. In other words: go feck yourself, Reagan.

Yeah, I know the US has pushed South Korea, Taiwan, and others to refrain from developing nukes, but it's becoming more clear, particularly with the GOP as it is, that other countries can't depend on the US' arsenal for protection, which incentivizes proliferation. I think the Taiwanese could probably produce a bomb within 6-12 months if they wanted to. The biggest challenge would likely be doing it without China knowing and potentially testing one somewhere to ensure China knew once they had developed their own. I don't think they can go the Israel route of strategic ambiguity.

I tend to be more of a proliferation optimist, but proliferation always increases the risk that one will be used, even if only marginally.