Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

The feck?

WASHINGTON — New intelligence reviewed by U.S. officials suggests that a pro-Ukrainian group carried out the attack on the Nord Stream pipelines last year, a step toward determining responsibility for an act of sabotage that has confounded investigators on both sides of the Atlantic for months.

U.S. officials said that they had no evidence President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine or his top lieutenants were involved in the operation, or that the perpetrators were acting at the direction of any Ukrainian government officials.

The explosives were most likely planted with the help of experienced divers who did not appear to be working for military or intelligence services, U.S. officials who have reviewed the new intelligence said."

 
If true, it is scary that a non-government group has the resources to do that kind of sabotage. I am skeptical though to this intel.
The CIA intentionally telling the NYT (which is what this is) that an independent group did it, actually makes me more suspicious that the US govt was involved. Not in Seymour Hersh's telling because that was an absurd little tale (half the Norwegian navy was in on it by the end), but some other way.
 
If true, it is scary that a non-government group has the resources to do that kind of sabotage. I am skeptical though to this intel.
I feel like a lot of people overestimate the resources needed to pull this off.

Yes, you need professional industrial diving equipment and experience, but the Baltic Sea is basically an oversized lake, it's not an open ocean where you would need submarines etc to do this.
 
If true, it is scary that a non-government group has the resources to do that kind of sabotage. I am skeptical though to this intel.

Yeah, A better lie would be that Russia did it but with this, you can only think that US did it (I don't think any european country would attack a german's interest infrastructure).
But maybe is what they are looking for. Let the world know that it had been them with an absurd lie, but officially not being able to accuse them as it had been an non governmental organization from a non top country at war with capabilities to destroy an infrastructure deep in the middle of the baltic sea
 
I'm curious though, doesn't this warrant a criminal investigation it civilians did this?
 
I'm curious though, doesn't this warrant a criminal investigation it civilians did this?
It has been treated as one from the first day (at least in Germany). The federal police (Bundeskriminalamt/BKA) is performing the investigation on order of the federal public prosecutor.
 
Up to 30,000 Russian casualties in Bakhmut.

Between 20,000 and 30,000 Russian troops have been killed and wounded in the battle for the Ukrainian city of Bakhmut since it began last summer, Western officials say.

The epic nature of the battle is out of all proportion to Bakhmut's strategic significance, they add.
But after more than six months of grinding, horrific fighting, the future of Bakhmut still hangs in the balance.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64880268
 
Yeah, A better lie would be that Russia did it but with this, you can only think that US did it (I don't think any european country would attack a german's interest infrastructure).
But maybe is what they are looking for. Let the world know that it had been them with an absurd lie, but officially not being able to accuse them as it had been an non governmental organization from a non top country at war with capabilities to destroy an infrastructure deep in the middle of the baltic sea
This is the most likely explanation to me.
 
I can’t see who gains from this other than Ukraine, so I do err on the side that it’s them.
 
I can’t see who gains from this other than Ukraine, so I do err on the side that it’s them.

I am amazed that a non gubernamental group didn't do it before. with north stream 1 either. They were both created to bypass Ukrainian pipes
 
I can’t see who gains from this other than Ukraine, so I do err on the side that it’s them.
My crackpot theory suspect always was Poland. Nordstream is a symbol for German-Russian friendship and some right wingers in Poland likened it to the Molotov-Ribbentrop pact.

Destroying Nordstream means making Germany dependent on East Europe again.
 
I can’t see who gains from this other than Ukraine, so I do err on the side that it’s them.

Doesn’t have the to be about who gains. Before the invasion, Biden tried deter Putin by threatening to put an end to NS2.

Biden and the US would look weak if they didn’t follow through on that threat.
 
Doesn’t have the to be about who gains. Before the invasion, Biden tried deter Putin by threatening to put an end to NS2.

Biden and the US would look weak if they didn’t follow through on that threat.

Yeah that’s a good point- it could be punitive.
 
My crackpot theory suspect always was Poland. Nordstream is a symbol for German-Russian friendship and some right wingers in Poland likened it to the Molotov-Ribbentrop pact.

Destroying Nordstream means making Germany dependent on East Europe again.
You're grossly underestimating Poland's incompetence.
 
Saying "pro-ukraine" group doesn't really narrow it down. That's most the free world.

If its not all that deep there, could some former naval SOF types been on their whatsapp group like "Yo lads, fancy a boat trip this weekend? I got a fun idea".
 
Saying "pro-ukraine" group doesn't really narrow it down. That's most the free world.

If its not all that deep there, could some former naval SOF types been on their whatsapp group like "Yo lads, fancy a boat trip this weekend? I got a fun idea".
The above linked Zeit article quotes the investigation result of a team of six people, a captain, two divers, two diver assistants and one medic who allegedly carried out the attack on a small chartered Polish boat.

So yes, your scenario is plausible in size.
 


I think the tiny kernel of truth here surrounded by outlandish lies is that one eccentric in the UK thinks that, as part of turning towards more sustainable sources of meat, we should start eating the non-native grey squirrels which have supplanted red squirrels in large parts of the UK. But, to paraphrase a United chant, it’s not a case of “they looked in the dustbin for something to eat, they found a dead squirrel and found it a treat”.
 
I read somewhere the fight for Bakhmut now lasts longer than the battle of Stalingrad.
 
The above linked Zeit article quotes the investigation result of a team of six people, a captain, two divers, two diver assistants and one medic who allegedly carried out the attack on a small chartered Polish boat.

So yes, your scenario is plausible in size.

I've not read through this latest stuff, how have they got such specific info?
 
I've not read through this latest stuff, how have they got such specific info?
They quote sources inside the German federal police. Just like the NYT quotes CIA sources. So no official statement yet, but looks a bit like them now having a "leakable" result that will soon be officially confirmed.
 
Seems like the minced meat tactic begins to reap its rewards. More and more such videos are appearing. The next mobilization should be interesting.
 
@harms what do you think of Yudin's commentary?

A quote:
Whom do Vladimir Putin and Russian society resent? The whole world? The West? The U.S.?

[They resent] a world order that seems unfair, and, accordingly, whoever takes responsibility for being “superior” in this world order, meaning the United States of America.

I always remember something Putin said in mid-2021. He said, completely unprovoked, that there’s no happiness in life. It’s a strong statement for a political leader, who of course doesn’t have to bring people into heaven but should in theory make their lives better.

But it’s as if he says: “There’s no happiness in life. The world is a bad, unjust, difficult place, where the only way to exist is to struggle constantly, to fight, and, at the outer limit, kill.”

Resentment of the outside world is deeply rooted in Russia, and it gets projected onto the U.S., which seems responsible for the world. At some point, the United States really did take responsibility for the world — not completely successfully. And we see that the resentment I’m talking about is definitely not only in Russia (where it of course exists in a catastrophic, horrible form).
https://meduza.io/en/feature/2023/02/25/russia-ends-nowhere-they-say
 
Yeah, he’s pretty spot on as usual
 
Great article, but also frightening. How many Ukrainians will die before Russia comes to it's senses? Can we just stay on the sidelines and watch a whole country endure this trauma alone because of a tyrannical dictator and the people who is behind him?
It's always been clear that the line on Russia's imperial delusions must be drawn in Ukraine. It's a slight risk of WW3 today vs a high risk of WW3 in future, if Russia is allowed to bank its wins.
 
Good article indeed, dark fecking shit though. Taken together with some of the comments today that Ukraine is low on artillery shells, makes me think that NATO countries need to really ramp munitions production, for Ukraine and beyond.
That has been the case for months.

Some people believe that NATO has equipped the UA to the point where victory is unavoidable in the near future (possibly this spring in some places). The reality is that the majority of UA's defense and offense have been stalled for months. If you had talked about it weeks ago, you would have been accused of listening to Kremlin propaganda or some bollocks. All of this talk about the casualty ratio is great, but it won't last if the UA doesn't have long-term equipment and eventually has to give in to the outdated 'human wave' tactic. I'm hoping the Russians tire of it first.

And we have those who said, "Well, who cares if the UA loses a nothing town?" But if you lose them one by one, it does not look good for you because your aim is to get most, if not all, territories back. For Bakhmut, Zelensky said the Russians would have an open road through Ukraine if they lost it. Showed how much we know about how the leaders on both sides think or the reality in those places. Nada.

It's a little depressing at the moment.
 
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Good article that.

Its also a good reminder that Putin can't be contained. He has to be proactively defeated through a combination of military, economic, informational means.