Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

After the refusal video earlier, here is another strong response from another group. They finally start to understand their worth to the Kremlin. The longer the war goes on, the more problems Putin will have.
 
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Ragnar123 said:
After the refusal video earlier, here is another strong response from another group. They finally start to understand their worth to the Kremlin. The longer the war goes on, the more problems Putin will have.
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"Like yesterday, one guy went outside, sat on the bench, pointed the gun and blew his brains off."

That's dark. But...they're not necessarily complaining about participating. They're complaining about being assigned assault roles instead of territorial defence, I think?
 
People of Georgia following Ukraines example. Third day of protests, showing no sign of backing down over this 'foreign agent' law. Their president says she'll veto it but not sure what power she actually holds now over the pro-Russian parliament.

 
VorZakone said:
@harms what do you think of Yudin's commentary?

A quote:

https://meduza.io/en/feature/2023/02/25/russia-ends-nowhere-they-say
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That's a very nihilistic view of the world from Putin. If power was not concentrated within the Office of the President, one could say this questionable mental status is one major ground for removal from office.

Raoul said:
Its also a good reminder that Putin can't be contained. He has to be proactively defeated through a combination of military, economic, informational means.
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Yep. While the scale is bigger, the endgame is just as the same as when a lot of things had to be combined to get rid of Slobodan Milosevic for everything he did or allowed to fester.
 
Simbo said:
People of Georgia following Ukraines example. Third day of protests, showing no sign of backing down over this 'foreign agent' law. Their president says she'll veto it but not sure what power she actually holds now over the pro-Russian parliament.

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Good for them. Let’s hope the crackdown isn’t too bad
 
YouOnlyLiveTwice said:
Great article, but also frightening. How many Ukrainians will die before Russia comes to it's senses? Can we just stay on the sidelines and watch a whole country endure this trauma alone because of a tyrannical dictator and the people who is behind him?
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The war will end before Russia will come to its senses, I'd imagine. Hopefully that end (by which I mean Russia's loss) will instigate processes that would lead to Russia rethinking it's both past & present. And guys like Yudin will be needed for that.
 
Simbo said:
There's no confirmation of this, but there doesn't need to be once it spreads around social media...

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Yikes. This is going to get ugly.

The Kremlin could not send troops to help Armenia in the recent clashes with Azerbaijan. I don't see how they would have troops to spare for Georgia.
 
RedDevilQuebecois said:
Yikes. This is going to get ugly.

The Kremlin could not send troops to help Armenia in the recent clashes with Azerbaijan. I don't see how they would have troops to spare for Georgia.
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This conflict could spread quickly if other ex Soviet nations have similar uprisings.
 
MTF said:
Good article indeed, dark fecking shit though. Taken together with some of the comments today that Ukraine is low on artillery shells, makes me think that NATO countries need to really ramp munitions production, for Ukraine and beyond.
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The United said:
That has been the case for months.
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What I’ve put in bold has also been the case for months. NATO countries are ramping up shell production. You know this, because we talked about it last month, but you keep acting like you don’t. It’s odd.
 
A good point. If the UN continues to be feckless because of security council gridlock then it’s utility as an IO is severely eroded.

 
Carolina Red said:
What I’ve put in bold has also been the case for months. NATO countries are ramping up shell production. You know this, because we talked about it last month, but you keep acting like you don’t. It’s odd.
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I believe I bolded "Ukraine is low on artillery shells" and explained why it could complicate the UKR's immediate ability to keep defending and start their own counterattack in the very near future. I have never said there that NATO and the EU were not finding the solution (mid- and long-term).

PS: The article below has some good information. It is not just one or two types of ammunition. It gets more complicated because UKR forces are still using a lot of Soviet-era equipment, and they are running low on those as well.
 
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Simbo said:
There's no confirmation of this, but there doesn't need to be once it spreads around social media...

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How did this happen in Georgia ? They were very pro-nato, I'd expect the brief war they had with Russia to only intensify this.
 
Raoul said:
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At this point it's just a pointless murder of people, because everyone sees after one year of war, that Russia achieves the exact opposite with their terrorism. They still don't understand that every new missile just strengthens Ukraine's resolve to win this war. Every new destroyed house and killed civilian just makes them hate and fight russia even more.
 
Did Russians say Ukraine is not ready for negotiations and the west is escalating the war before this attack?
 
This whole war is just surreal. Imagine you stop in the middle of a firefight to prove your moral point and then continue shooting each other.



Here is the translation from the comments:

RU: "Brother, I at least came here to make things right" UA: "(unintelligible) So you came to my house to make things right? You came to my house, where there are my rules, to tell me how to live? I'm in my home, not in yours, not in your kitchen, room, I'm not telling you where to shit and throw the trash, You're trying to tell me how to eat, how to shit. I'm at home, you're not." RU: "Yeah, I understand where you're coming from, but if the people (unintelligible, explosion) in the neighboring cities..." UA: "fecking think about it, you're living in a (apartment block), go to your neighbor, beat him up saying "You're eating wrong, bitch. And your fecking kitchen is now mine. Just because you're eating wrong". Is that fecking normal?" RU: "Well, i can kinda understand you see it..." UA: "Well that's how I see it all. You fecking came to us to make things right your way" RU: "unintelligible, swearing Shut your fecking face up (?). What would you do yourself (in our place?)" UA: "Don't worry, we can beat up those that need it, we don't shy away from it." RU: "(unintelligible)" UA: "And would've done the same to Yanukovich, but the fecker escaped"
 
Russia launched 6 nuclear-capable hypersonic Kinzhal missiles during the night which can't be intercepted by UA anti air defense. But considering they have only a few dozens of them, it looks like desperation at this point. Provided that the stock estimate is correct of course.
 
Raoul said:
This conflict could spread quickly if other ex Soviet nations have similar uprisings.
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The whole thing/area feels like a tinderbox ready to explode at any time. We’ve seen how easily countries get dragged into world wars. It’s really worrying.
 
Ukrainian Air Force just tweeted they need F-16s.

Why have former Soviet countries, etc. not supplied them with 4th or 4.5th generation former Soviet or Russian planes? There has to be a decent multi-role aircraft in there that can do what the F-16 does.
 
The Firestarter said:
How did this happen in Georgia ? They were very pro-nato, I'd expect the brief war they had with Russia to only intensify this.
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4bars said:
How is that possible? If they vote them maybe not a majority but a big portion must be prorussian
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The Georgian Dream is not openly pro-Russian and they do a great job of confusing everyone just about enough to gain advantage. That includes a few politicians leaving the party to create an "opposing one" that actually introduced the foreign agent law into existence. They are also incredibly wealthy — they're being backed by Georgia's wealthiest man in Ivanishvili (Russian-affiliated oligarch) — and their economical policies that included better trade relationships with Russia did quite well (simply because Georgia can't really exist without Russian import at the moment).

And their main opposition — Saakashvili and his followers — have made way too much feck ups to be popular enough to overthrow the Georgian Dream (he did travel to Georgia right before the elections in a Navalny-esque move, trying to create enough momentum to swing the result, but ended up getting arrested... he's now slowly dying, apparently, from a whole bunch of weird illnesses, being held in a secured hospital).

From my limited personal experience the population isn't pro-Russian in general and there's certainly an overwhelming amount of support for Ukraine on the ground level — as @The Firestarter said, the invasion did resonate with their own experience and it's important to note that for Georgians it wasn't a brief war. Just like for Ukrainians the war started not in 2022, but in 2014, for Georgians the 2008 war is still in many ways on-going — they consider 20% of their territory to be presently occupied by Russia (the "independent" republics of South Ossetia and Abkhazia) and people near the border keep disappearing until this day.
 
FYI:



Weird thing is that I just watched All Quiet on the Western Front (the new one) a couple of days ago. The poor guy Matsievsky really reminds me of Stanislaus "Kat" Katczinsky.
 
Ragnar123 said:
Russia launched 6 nuclear-capable hypersonic Kinzhal missiles during the night which can't be intercepted by UA anti air defense. But considering they have only a few dozens of them, it looks like desperation at this point. Provided that the stock estimate is correct of course.
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Yeah, Russia really can't afford in every sense of the word to be firing those at Ukraine. Plus America will be waiting patiently for one of them to fail. They've already got their hands on a few unexploded cruise missiles.
 
harms said:
The Georgian Dream is not openly pro-Russian and they do a great job of confusing everyone just about enough to gain advantage. That includes a few politicians leaving the party to create an "opposing one" that actually introduced the foreign agent law into existence. They are also incredibly wealthy — they're being backed by Georgia's wealthiest man in Ivanishvili (Russian-affiliated oligarch) — and their economical policies that included better trade relationships with Russia did quite well (simply because Georgia can't really exist without Russian import at the moment).

And their main opposition — Saakashvili and his followers — have made way too much feck ups to be popular enough to overthrow the Georgian Dream (he did travel to Georgia right before the elections in a Navalny-esque move, trying to create enough momentum to swing the result, but ended up getting arrested... he's now slowly dying, apparently, from a whole bunch of weird illnesses, being held in a secured hospital).

From my limited personal experience the population isn't pro-Russian in general and there's certainly an overwhelming amount of support for Ukraine on the ground level — as @The Firestarter said, the invasion did resonate with their own experience and it's important to note that for Georgians it wasn't a brief war. Just like for Ukrainians the war started not in 2022, but in 2014, for Georgians the 2008 war is still in many ways on-going — they consider 20% of their territory to be presently occupied by Russia (the "independent" republics of South Ossetia and Abkhazia) and people near the border keep disappearing until this day.
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But if you know that, lots of georgians would know that an as much the main opposition fecked up, if you are anti russian, you would not vote Georgian Dream. At least georgians should not give a feck of anti or pro russia for this to work and because the 2008 conflict, I don't see that possible. it should be a strong or anti russian or pro russian sentiment depending on your affiliation.

As you said, might be that they do a great job missleading
 
4bars said:
But if you know that, lots of georgians would know that an as much the main opposition fecked up, if you are anti russian, you would not vote Georgian Dream. At least georgians should not give a feck of anti or pro russia for this to work and because the 2008 conflict, I don't see that possible. it should be a strong or anti russian or pro russian sentiment depending on your affiliation.

As you said, might be that they do a great job missleading
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It's really messy and it's way more nuanced and complicated than it is in my 2 paragraph-long explanation. The connection between the Georgian Dream and Russia isn't (or wasn't) extremely obvious and the extent of Russia's influence on it is certainly debatable*. They also make pro-Western (as in confirming the goal to join Europe/NATO) statements from time to time when it suits them — even though many consider them to be misleading if not outright false. Also, being pro- or anti-Russian isn't the only criteria that Georgians are basing their votes on — especially when you consider that the current government was voted in place before the full-scale invasion of Ukraine (I'd imagine that it will play a much bigger role from now on).

* it became a bit clearer since the beginning of the invasion. If the unwillingness to support the sanctions and openly state its support for Ukraine can be kinda understandable as Georgia is extremely dependent on Russia economically, things line this "foreign agent" law or the regular cases of them denying the entry to Russian anti-Putin politics, journalists & activists (while a regular Russian citizen still doesn't need a visa to entry Georgia and they allow in almost anyone who isn't in violation with their laws) seem to suggest a way closer connection than most previously thought.
 
harms said:
It's really messy and it's way more nuanced and complicated than it is in my 2 paragraph-long explanation. The connection between the Georgian Dream and Russia isn't (or wasn't) extremely obvious and the extent of Russia's influence on it is certainly debatable*. They also make pro-Western (as in confirming the goal to join Europe/NATO) statements from time to time when it suits them — even though many consider them to be misleading if not outright false. Also, being pro- or anti-Russian isn't the only criteria that Georgians are basing their votes on — especially when you consider that the current government was voted in place before the full-scale invasion of Ukraine (I'd imagine that it will play a much bigger role from now on).

* it became a bit clearer since the beginning of the invasion. If the unwillingness to support the sanctions and openly state its support for Ukraine can be kinda understandable as Georgia is extremely dependent on Russia economically, things line this "foreign agent" law or the regular cases of them denying the entry to Russian anti-Putin politics, journalists & activists (while a regular Russian citizen still doesn't need a visa to entry Georgia and they allow in almost anyone who isn't in violation with their laws) seem to suggest a way closer connection than most previously thought.
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That make sense. As you said, next elections, being pro or anti russian probably will have a bigger weight on the vote decision

Thanks for the explanation!
 
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