Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

FYI:



Weird thing is that I just watched All Quiet on the Western Front (the new one) a couple of days ago. The poor guy Matsievsky really reminds me of Stanislaus "Kat" Katczinsky.


This guy will have a few streets and monuments named after him following the war.
 
You can’t say that. His report was based on a single source. The correct thing to do is disregard it.

Nevermind that Hersh is himself not a reliable source as well.
 
Nevermind that Hersh is himself not a reliable source as well.
Also apply Occam's razor - the more simple explanation for something is usually the right one, and the scenario Hersh created is just unnecessarily large.
 


Deary me,
The twitter handle does make me laugh.. MFA in Crimea.. so Crimea is Ukranian?:)
 


Deary me,
The twitter handle does make me laugh.. MFA in Crimea.. so Crimea is Ukranian?:)


They seem to be taking it very seriously. Would be a big movement if it reached Euromaidan levels.

That aside, the last thing Russia should be thinking about is attacking yet another country. From the information available it seems as if they already struggle to produce ammunition for the fronts they already have.
 
It looks like Bakhmut stabilized a bit after Russians made bigger advances last week. In the last days, the russians are again only crawling forward with huge losses. They took the eastern part of the town, but now the river is a great holding position. UA sent probably considerable reinforcements. At this point, no one can really predict how long the heroic defend can hold there. But the longer they hold, the more men, equipment and armor Russia loses and can't use for other attacks. And the kill/death ratio there is also probably the most favorable of all fronts.
 
It looks like Bakhmut stabilized a bit after Russians made bigger advances last week. In the last days, the russians are again only crawling forward with huge losses. They took the eastern part of the town, but now the river is a great holding position. UA sent probably considerable reinforcements. At this point, no one can really predict how long the heroic defend can hold there. But the longer they hold, the more men, equipment and armor Russia loses and can't use for other attacks.


If it's Stalingrad, I hope the Ukrainians have an Operation Uranus prepared. I'm not sure they have a Zhukov though.
 
If it's Stalingrad, I hope the Ukrainians have an Operation Uranus prepared. I'm not sure they have a Zhukov though.
I hope they don't. Zhukov's reckless tactics are the cause for millions and millions of dead Red Army soldiers and they are the prototype for the comparable human wave attacks the Russians try today.
 
I hope they don't. Zhukov's reckless tactics are the cause for millions and millions of dead Red Army soldiers and they are the prototype for the comparable human wave attacks the Russians try today.

Zhukov is the reason Germany didn't conquer the Soviet Union (okay slight exaggeration). He was famously callous about losses, but he was not a human wave general. He was more about Deep Battle/Deep Operation.
 
If it's Stalingrad, I hope the Ukrainians have an Operation Uranus prepared. I'm not sure they have a Zhukov though.
What they need instead is another George Patton, repeating the incredible feat of mobilizing entire divisions (especially armored ones) in the middle of winter to relieve Bastogne.
 
White House officials on the Moldova situation:

WashingtonCNN —
The US intelligence community believes that individuals with ties to Russian intelligence are planning to stage protests in Moldova to try to foment a manufactured insurrection against the Moldovan government, with the ultimate goal of seeing a more pro-Russia administration installed there, White House officials said Friday.

The US believes that Russia is working to weaken the Moldovan government which is seeking closer ties with the European Union, National Security Council coordinator for strategic communications John Kirby said, The US is also seeing signs that Russian government-linked actors could provide training to anti-government demonstrators in Moldova. The country’s capital, Chisinau, has been rocked by anti-government protests in recent weeks, largely organized by Moldova’s Russia-friendly Shor Party.

The Biden administraiton also believes that Moscow is working to sow disinformation about Moldova’s overall stability. One example was the Russian Ministry of Defense’s claim last month that Ukraine has been planning to invade Transnistria, Moldova’s Moscow-backed separatist region. US officials said those allegations are “unfounded, false, and create baseless alarm.”
https://edition.cnn.com/2023/03/10/politics/us-russia-moldova-intelligence/index.html
 
It looks like Bakhmut stabilized a bit after Russians made bigger advances last week. In the last days, the russians are again only crawling forward with huge losses. They took the eastern part of the town, but now the river is a great holding position. UA sent probably considerable reinforcements. At this point, no one can really predict how long the heroic defend can hold there. But the longer they hold, the more men, equipment and armor Russia loses and can't use for other attacks. And the kill/death ratio there is also probably the most favorable of all fronts.


Its just a bizarre hill to die on (literally) for the Russians. Putin is so desperate for a win that he's actually preventing his forces from making gains elsewhere.
 
Its just a bizarre hill to die on (literally) for the Russians. Putin is so desperate for a win that he's actually preventing his forces from making gains elsewhere.
Looks like it's a slow game over with winter almost over. Prigozhyn probably f*cked himself after accusing Shoigu of betreyal. There's absolutely no motivation from Putin who still values Shoigu in helping Prigozhyn who's just another oligarch that probably will be thrown under the bus by FSB. After death they'll just use his assets in another atempt to rebuild some part of invasion force. If I was oligarchs still living there, I'd think about fleeing the country. This year could be uglier as Russia will canibalize itself further.

Nothing for sure, but Girkin's 100 years Russian cycle theory could slowly got closer to reality now. Can't seriously believe China is looking at this whole mess and thinking - 'It's a great idea to support Russia, as their leaders clearly know what they're doing.'
 
Zhukov is the reason Germany didn't conquer the Soviet Union (okay slight exaggeration). He was famously callous about losses, but he was not a human wave general. He was more about Deep Battle/Deep Operation.
I'm not questioning the results he achieved but the methods he used to. No military that gives a feck about the life of its soldiers should operate the way the Red Army did.

In my eyes Ukraine would lose the moral high ground they rightfully have in this conflict if they started showing the same ignorance towards the life of their soldiers and I personally wouldn't like to support such a military any longer.
 
I get the issue with his details but the conclusion is right. There is no logical argument for it to have been anyone but the US.

You're gunna have to elaborate on the logic of that a tad, they'd already destroyed the thing diplomatically.
 
Fantastic interview with Dmytro Kotsiubailo. A guy who volunteered to fight Russian invasion in 2014 and rose to a battalion commander in the last year. His funeral was attended by Zelensky, Zaluzhnyi, Sanna Marin, among a few thousand others.

https://ukrainefrontlines.com/opini...-hero-of-ukraine-dmytro-kotsiubailo-da-vinci/

Thanks for this, indeed an amazing interview. This guy was a true hero. Here are some photos and videos of his funeral:



It seems, the russians are storming Bakhmut again with everything they have. Yesterday they lost again over a thousand men according to ua defense. Freaking insanity from the russian side. At this rate, they need a new mobilization wave in a couple of months probably.

 
It seems, the russians are storming Bakhmut again with everything they have. Yesterday they lost again over a thousand men according to ua defense. Freaking insanity from the russian side. At this rate, they need a new mobilization wave in a couple of months probably.

DW News are reporting that the wagner group have announced some kind of pause in Bakhmut and are speculating that Putin is worried about the mercenaries long term intentions. Should I just stop watching DW news?


Okay, now they are saying it's escalated again.
 
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They seem to be taking it very seriously. Would be a big movement if it reached Euromaidan levels.

That aside, the last thing Russia should be thinking about is attacking yet another country. From the information available it seems as if they already struggle to produce ammunition for the fronts they already have.
In both Maidans there was a close to 50/50 split in general population about what’s happening (be it the support for Yuschenko/Yanukovich or the support for Euro integration/closer ties with Russia). Georgian population isn’t there yet — while the ruling party, the Georgian Dream, probably doesn’t have the support of the majority of country’s population, all the opposition combined has even less (significantly) support.

Maidan wasn’t the reason behind the change — it was its cause. In Georgia they do have the cause but the population isn’t ready.
 
Fantastic interview with Dmytro Kotsiubailo. A guy who volunteered to fight Russian invasion in 2014 and rose to a battalion commander in the last year. His funeral was attended by Zelensky, Zaluzhnyi, Sanna Marin, among a few thousand others.

https://ukrainefrontlines.com/opini...-hero-of-ukraine-dmytro-kotsiubailo-da-vinci/
Sanna Marin was not there for Dmytro Kotsiubailo. She was not there for Ukraine either. She was there because we have elections in couple of weeks. Rather disgusting that she uses anything for her political gain.
 
Maidan wasn’t the reason behind the change — it was its cause. In Georgia they do have the cause but the population isn’t ready.

Sorry but what do you mean by this? The reason behind something IS the cause? Which means I’ve misunderstood you somewhere..
 
DW News are reporting that the wagner group have announced some kind of pause in Bakhmut and are speculating that Putin is worried about the mercenaries long term intentions. Should I just stop watching DW news?


Okay, now they are saying it's escalated again.

Whether this is some kind of deliberate ploy by Putin, or whether it’s simply not possible logistically for Russia to keep replacing Wagner’s losses in Bakhmut is really difficult to know. I’d err towards the latter. It’s been 6 or 8 months since Russia has gained any kind of significant town/city, I can’t believe he’d give up the possibility of a rare piece of good news.
 
Sorry but what do you mean by this? The reason behind something IS the cause? Which means I’ve misunderstood you somewhere..
Sorry, it's my poor English, I fecked up the connotations in translation.

There's an event that triggers something and then there're the underlying reasons behind this happening. Maidan wasn't really the reason behind what happened next but it acted as a catalyst — but if Ukraine didn't already have a significant support for Eurointegration, growing hate for Yanukovich and the experience of 2004, nothing would've happened.

In Georgia we have an event that can be compared to Maidan but the society isn't really ready for the same change, so it won't work like it would in Ukraine. At least in my opinion & in opinion of most experts on Georgian politics that I've been listening too lately.
 
Sorry, it's my poor English, I fecked up the connotations in translation.

There's an event that triggers something and then there're the underlying reasons behind this happening. Maidan wasn't really the reason behind what happened next but it acted as a catalyst — but if Ukraine didn't already have a significant support for Eurointegration, growing hate for Yanukovich and the experience of 2004, nothing would've happened.

In Georgia we have an event that can be compared to Maidan but the society isn't really ready for the same change, so it won't work like it would in Ukraine. At least in my opinion & in opinion of most experts on Georgian politics that I've been listening too lately.

Ok, thanks. I don’t know enough about Georgian politics to really comment, other than thinking they probably are more pro-democracy/pro-European than the Stan countries around them, but certainly less than Ukraine:
 
Looks like Zelenskyy has a new opponent for the next election :wenger:



Also I find it funny how he says it "I run for president...of Ukraine". I bet Putin's eye twitched there for a second :lol:
I also believe that Putin will get rid of him as soon as he doesn't need his Wagners as minced meat anymore.