Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

Stanley Road said:
Imo this conflict won't end if you provide juuuuuuust enough weapons to defend yourself. For change it needs everything NATO has to offer. Atm it's all pointless
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It’s not pointless. Ukraine still exists and controls a majority of its territory.

It’s unrealistic, though, to expect a full drawdown of military stockpiles from NATO. NATO countries have their own responsibilities to manage while also helping Ukraine.
 
Carolina Red said:
It’s not pointless. Ukraine still exists and controls a majority of its territory.

It’s unrealistic, though, to expect a full drawdown of military stockpiles from NATO. NATO countries have their own responsibilities to manage while also helping Ukraine.
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Regardless of what equipment they get from NATO, Ukraine doesn't have the military capability or manpower to build a strong enough army to smash through the entrenched Russian army. In a peer level conflict, attackers needs to deploy overwhelming force and it's not going to happen.

The hope that 2023 would provide a decisive breakthrough, push to the sea and liberate Crimea is pretty much over. The front lines will ossify and become de-facto international borders. The political will to support further conflict from the west is already fading. It's just like in 2014. Putin has gotten away with it, at great cost, but he's gotten away with it.
 
foolsgold said:
The front lines will ossify and become de-facto international borders. The political will to support further conflict from the west is already fading. It's just like in 2014. Putin has gotten away with it, at great cost, but he's gotten away with it.
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Tell that to the 600-800 daily dead Russians and who knows how many wounded. The war in the current state is not sustainable for Putin, so even if the front doesn't move much, his reserves are getting more and more depleted. His camps full of soviet armor built for 40 years getting emptier by the day. Ukraine won't tire of this war, because it's a war of existence for them. They know every concession to Putin is just an invitation for later aggression. Russia on the other hand will eventually get tired. Today's situation and that of 2014 couldn't be further apart.
 
Ragnar123 said:
Tell that to the 600-800 daily dead Russians and who knows how many wounded. The war in the current state is not sustainable for Putin, so even if the front doesn't move much, his reserves are getting more and more depleted. His camps full of soviet armor built for 40 years getting emptier by the day. Ukraine won't tire of this war, because it's a war of existence for them. They know every concession to Putin is just an invitation for later aggression. Russia on the other hand will eventually get tired. Today's situation and that of 2014 couldn't be further apart.
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i disagree. Ukraine may not tire of the war, but it's western backers are already starting too. I saw on CNN today, 55% of US voters don't back further support for Ukraine. without long term western support there is no prospect of victory.

Also, Ukrainians are losing people every day too, a well entrenched defensive unit will take much fewer loses than one attacking it.
 
foolsgold said:
kraine may not tire of the war, but it's western backers are already starting too. I saw on CNN today, 55% of US voters don't back further support for Ukraine
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So far most of the western leaders promise to keep supporting Ukraine long term. Those daily surveys to fill in airtime don't change the fact. Further, many US voters have only a very limited insight of global politics and what it actually means to let Putin do as he wants.
foolsgold said:
without long term western support there is no prospect of victory.
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This is simply wrong. Even if in the highly unlikely worst case western leaders betray their morals and promises and stop the support, Ukraine will adapt. As long as people fight for their existence, they will always find a way to fight back. You want an example? Look at the Taliban. It didn't matter at all, that they had to hide in some dark holes for 20 years. They adapted and overcame foreign invasion in the end. If you fight for your right to exist, you don't care how long it takes. That is different with the aggressor side. The longer this goes on, the more Russians will ask themselves for what they actually die over there.

foolsgold said:
Ukrainians are losing people every day too
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They don't need to be reminded of that, nor do we. You just need to watch some of the countless videos of Russia's warcrimes. Just look in the faces of those people who have just lost relatives because of Russian missiles. Do their faces look like they want to surrender? Watch some documentaries on Putin's wars against Chechnya or Georgia. They know exactly what it means to hold their ground against Putin.
 
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Looks like bull's-eye. A good reminder for Russians that waging war is a double-edged sword.

 
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Russia giving Ukraine daily more reasons to resist with everything they have.
 
Ragnar123 said:
This is simply wrong. Even if in the highly unlikely worst case western leaders betray their morals and promises and stop the support, Ukraine will adapt. As long as people fight for their existence, they will always find a way to fight back. You want an example? Look at the Taliban. It didn't matter at all, that they had to hide in some dark holes for 20 years. They adapted and overcame foreign invasion in the end. If you fight for your right to exist, you don't care how long it takes. That is different with the aggressor side. The longer this goes on, the more Russians will ask themselves for what they actually die over there.
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Big difference is the Russians are not fighting with any rules of engagement. Afghanistan would have been over rather quickly if that had been the case there.

Russia will simply grind them down and exhaust all their supplies if the West moves on and stops supporting them, which will inevitably happen as politics changes.
 
11101 said:
Big difference is the Russians are not fighting with any rules of engagement. Afghanistan would have been over rather quickly if that had been the case there.

Russia will simply grind them down and exhaust all their supplies if the West moves on and stops supporting them, which will inevitably happen as politics changes.
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Considering that the last time they invaded Afghanistan they also failed to win quickly and instead by this invasion weakened the Soviet Union so much that it was part of its downfall, I don't think Russia would be successful in Afghanistan now.
 
11101 said:
Big difference is the Russians are not fighting with any rules of engagement. Afghanistan would have been over rather quickly if that had been the case there.

Russia will simply grind them down and exhaust all their supplies if the West moves on and stops supporting them, which will inevitably happen as politics changes.
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Ignoring whether you’re correct or incorrect, are you aware what a genuinely awful example Afghanistan is when trying to argue your case?!
 
Ragnar123 said:
yeah
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Good to see. I’d love to know how Russian stocks of ammo etc have changed in the last 18 months. No doubt they can, and are, producing more, but they can’t be doing that at anywhere near the rate they are using it.
 
foolsgold said:
The hope that 2023 would provide a decisive breakthrough, push to the sea and liberate Crimea is pretty much over. The front lines will ossify and become de-facto international borders. The political will to support further conflict from the west is already fading. It's just like in 2014. Putin has gotten away with it, at great cost, but he's gotten away with it.
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Really weird takes here, considering A) Not even 2014 borders have "ossified" yet; B) We are in the F16 training phase of the political will at this point; and C) I fail to see what Putin got away with geopolitically speaking. An eventual stalemate with a now militarized, mobilized and closely aligned with the West Ukraine won't even be close to a win. Let alone what this war did with his economy and his base of power. And his people, of course.
 
Krakenzero said:
Really weird takes here, considering A) Not even 2014 borders have "ossified" yet; B) We are in the F16 training phase of the political will at this point; and C) I fail to see what Putin got away with geopolitically speaking. An eventual stalemate with a now militarized, mobilized and closely aligned with the West Ukraine won't even be close to a win. Let alone what this war did with his economy and his base of power. And his people, of course.
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He also effectively got away with the non expansion of NATO. I mean Finland (soon Sweden) joining is a mere detail.
 
NicolaSacco said:
Good to see. I’d love to know how Russian stocks of ammo etc have changed in the last 18 months. No doubt they can, and are, producing more, but they can’t be doing that at anywhere near the rate they are using it.
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Heard or read somewhere that the Russians are, on average, firing 4 arty rounds for every 1 the Ukrainians fire. That made me take pause for a second to contemplate just how much military hardware the Soviets built / made in its last few decades of existence. It has to run out at some point, but who knows if we are close to the end or not.
 
calodo2003 said:
Heard or read somewhere that the Russians are, on average, firing 4 arty rounds for every 1 the Ukrainians fire. That made me take pause for a second to contemplate just how much military hardware the Soviets built / made in its last few decades of existence. It has to run out at some point, but who knows if we are close to the end or not.
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I wonder how much this factors into the West’s thinking. By which I mean always being aware of the potential next war, as well as the current war. Even though we can’t possibly know the specific numbers, the longer the Russians have to keep burning through ammo, men, equipment etc, the longer it will be until they are in a position to invade another country.
 
calodo2003 said:
It has to run out at some point, but who knows if we are close to the end or not.
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Given Shoigu has already started begging in North Korea and many reports from last weeks and months saying their artillery is much quieter than last summer, their stocks are running definitely lower than they wanted them to be.

Looks like last year's support measures didn't last long. Ruble continues to decline.
https://apnews.com/article/russia-ruble-value-declines-2629f2b9c1efce62de2f414f4bb787e5
 
Ragnar123 said:
Given Shoigu has already started begging in North Korea and many reports from last weeks and months saying their artillery is much quieter than last summer, their stocks are running definitely lower than they wanted them to be.
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The big question is if it is their total stocks running low or just what they can get to the front? The latter could also be true and caused by the amount of Ukrainian attacks on storage sites and bridges etc.

And also it definitely is not only about ammunition, as Ukraine is quite successfully hunting and destroying artillery systems.
 
stefan92 said:
The big question is if it is their total stocks running low or just what they can get to the front? The latter could also be true and caused by the amount of Ukrainian attacks on storage sites and bridges etc.

And also it definitely is not only about ammunition, as Ukraine is quite successfully hunting and destroying artillery systems.
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I guess it will be a mix of everything. We also must not forget the corruption in soviet times. They probably produced 3-5 times the numbers on paper than in reality and how many of these will be of poor quality. Putin probably gets to read the book numbers and continues to think everything is fine, while in reality his generals are searching the country for the last usable shells. I exaggerate of course, but I'm not sure by how much.
 
Ragnar123 said:
I guess it will be a mix of everything. We also must not forget the corruption in soviet times. They probably produced 3-5 times the numbers on paper than in reality and how many of these will be of poor quality. Putin probably gets to read the book numbers and continues to think everything is fine, while in reality his generals are searching the country for the last usable shells. I exaggerate of course, but I'm not sure by how much.
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Shoigu visiting NK was indeed a hint that they might be truly running low, I agree, we just don't know for sure - running low on what exactly? We will probably never know for sure...
 
We've seen a lot of these "appeal to the president" videos from Russian troops. Has this been a common thing or this uniquely Russian?

 
Seems like Lukashenko isn't willing to feed them after all. Maybe they can drive towards Moscow again to get their salary :lol:
 
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You got to wonder, how long a battle for a genuine big city will take, Ukraine and Russia has been fighting over Bakhmut for a year and a half, with no end in sight.

Melitopol is twice the size, are we talking like, a 5 year siege or something, once Ukraine actually get there?
 
Morty_ said:
You got to wonder, how long a battle for a genuine big city will take, Ukraine and Russia has been fighting over Bakhmut for a year and a half, with no end in sight.

Melitopol is twice the size, are we talking like, a 5 year siege or something, once Ukraine actually get there?
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Yeah, it is hard to think about it. The key is to control and circle the city. So if they get there, they have a good chance already. But, getting there seems to be the hardest task for the UA with all the mines and obstacles around. Right now, they are struggling to even take small and empty villages.

People may bring up the capture of Kherson. But the siege of the city was way different in terms of geography, the preparedness of the RA's troops, etc. They are way different than how they were last year.
 
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