Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

All three of us have conducted fieldwork in Ukraine, and we have learned via interviews that there was an extensive infiltration and support effort ahead of the invasion whose goal would have been to enable Russian airborne and special forces to quickly access the capital.

 
Last edited:

Just for context, this is not a new pledge, but just realizing a pledge from July - Rheinmetall is busy refurbishing lots of vehicles to send them to Ukraine, currently mostly Leopard 1 MBT, so I guess these Marder will be rolled into the workshop as soon as the Leopards leave it.
 
So the Starlink was so Ukraine could defend itself. But that can’t mean killing people. Yeah, my opinion of Elon remains unchanged.

What are you on about? Starlink is a private company offering network services to the public. To quote the man "“Starlink was not meant to be involved in wars. It was so people can watch Netflix and chill and get online for school and do good peaceful things, not drone strikes.”

It's likely that utilizing the network for military purposes goes against its terms of use. If the US government wishes to supply services to Ukraine for military applications, they should do so through their own military contracts. This would guarantee compliance with the necessary military standards related to reliability, security, accuracy, latency, and other crucial factors, especially when it comes to weapon targeting. While I'm not a staunch supporter of Elon Musk, it seems somewhat unfair to place the blame on him for the inability of Washington, Pentagon, NATO, and others to deliver this kind of capability.
 
What are you on about? Starlink is a private company offering network services to the public. To quote the man "“Starlink was not meant to be involved in wars. It was so people can watch Netflix and chill and get online for school and do good peaceful things, not drone strikes.”

It's likely that utilizing the network for military purposes goes against its terms of use. If the US government wishes to supply services to Ukraine for military applications, they should do so through their own military contracts. This would guarantee compliance with the necessary military standards related to reliability, security, accuracy, latency, and other crucial factors, especially when it comes to weapon targeting. While I'm not a staunch supporter of Elon Musk, it seems somewhat unfair to place the blame on him for the inability of Washington, Pentagon, NATO, and others to deliver this kind of capability.

Musk voluntarily sent tens of thousands of Starlink terminals to Ukraine while it was at war with Russia.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/22/elo...tarlink-satellite-dishes-sent-to-ukraine.html

He then attempted to take it all back after moaning he was losing money (after the self-serving PR move of sending them there exhausted itself of course). DOD is now paying him for Starlink, which means its a defense contractor currently on contract with the US government.
 
Jesus. I don't know if you even realise how inhumane you sound here. What happened to your empathy, man?

I am against war. My empathy lies with the civilians that are being used as cannon fodder in this proxy war.

There is a famous phone call that was leaked back in 2014, where our deputy secretary of state, Victoria Nuland, is on tape picking the new government of Ukraine, which came into effect a few weeks later after the violent overthrow of the democratically elected Yanukovych government. On that call, Nuland says she needs to get approval from Biden and Jake Sullivan as national security advisor for this new Ukrainian government that she's picking. So she basically is saying that Biden is the boss. As an aside, three months after that, Hunter Biden is appointed to the board of Burisma. Do you believe that the appointment was made for any other reason than Biden calling the shots on Ukraine?

The US has been heavily involved in Ukraine since (before) 2014 - on overthrowing Yanukovich, on picking the next government, on setting policy, on saying Ukraine should be part of NATO at the Bucharest summit in 2008 without a plan on laying out exactly how, and when, and how. What exactly did that accomplish? Putin is responsible for this war, but did our half-hazardous courting contribute to his aggression? If Russia was picking the government of Canada (Mexico), courting them to become members of the Warsaw Pact, don't you think the US might get just a bit nervous. Of course not, we'd have been totally cool - I mean we did obliterate Iraq over no WMD and no links to 9/11 after all.

And then we are constantly being misled by the media. Just a few months ago Petraeus and Ben Hodges were predicting a swift and successful Ukrainian counteroffensive, with plans to march across the Azov and cut off the Russian forces. However, the losses have been staggering, and it has turned into a disaster. The talking heads and media's enthusiastic support seems to serve the purpose of expediting appropriation bills. We've spent $115 billion on Ukraine, benefiting companies like Lockheed, Boeing, Raytheon, Northrop etc while we've run out of ammunition and artillery shells* to support the effort. Washington's true interests may not align with freedom, liberty, and democracy in Ukraine; instead, it seems we are engaged in a proxy war with Russia, willing to fight until the last Ukrainian. This is a devastating conflict where innocent civilians are getting obliterated.

*How corrupt does the Pentagon have to be to receive an $880 billion annual budget, yet not provide healthcare or paid leave for service members and still run out of ammunition? What are they actually spending the money on?
 
Musk voluntarily sent tens of thousands of Starlink terminals to Ukraine while it was at war with Russia.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/22/elo...tarlink-satellite-dishes-sent-to-ukraine.html

He then attempted to take it all back after moaning he was losing money (after the self-serving PR move of sending them there exhausted itself of course). DOD is now paying him for Starlink, which means its a defense contractor currently on contract with the US government.

Wrong. Starlink is now a defense contractor, but wasn't one last September when he cut off internet service.

DOD is paying Starlink as of June 2023

Musk ordered the deactivation of Starlink satellite service near the coast of Crimea last September
 
Last edited:
Musk voluntarily sent tens of thousands of Starlink terminals to Ukraine while it was at war with Russia.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/22/elo...tarlink-satellite-dishes-sent-to-ukraine.html

He then attempted to take it all back after moaning he was losing money (after the self-serving PR move of sending them there exhausted itself of course). DOD is now paying him for Starlink, which means its a defense contractor currently on contract with the US government.
That's a pretty ridiculous take. Far from being merely a PR move, Ukraine and Nato leaders have made it very clear that the use of Starlink has been a critically important assist to them, particularly early in the war.

And the claim that Starlink is a defence contractor because they chose to help when nobody else could... Well, I guess no good deed goes unpunished.
 
Also, to follow on Biden's dirty involvement in Ukraine -


Wrong. Starlink is now a defense contractor, but wasn't one last September when he cut off internet service.

DOD is paying Starlink as of June 2023

Musk ordered the deactivation of Starlink satellite service near the coast of Crimea last September

They are now because Musk inserted himself into the process and threatened to jearpordize US defense policy on Ukraine by pulling Starlink out. That's why its under contract now. He basically dangled it before the Ukrainians for a PR win (same as his dopey idea of building a kid sized submarine for the Thai kids trapped in the cave) then attempted to remove it when it didn't suit his needs any more and/or it began to anger Putin.
 
That's a pretty ridiculous take. Far from being merely a PR move, Ukraine and Nato leaders have made it very clear that the use of Starlink has been a critically important assist to them, particularly early in the war.

And the claim that Starlink is a defence contractor because they chose to help when nobody else could... Well, I guess no good deed goes unpunished.

There's no doubt it has benefited the Ukrainians. But Musk doesn't do anything out of altruism. He did it purely to interject himself, a private citizen, as a power broker into the international affairs of the nation, then behaved in a manner that was contradictory to US defense policy (of which he is a defense contractor on many fronts).
 
I am against war. My empathy lies with the civilians that are being used as cannon fodder in this proxy war.

There is a famous phone call that was leaked back in 2014, where our deputy secretary of state, Victoria Nuland, is on tape picking the new government of Ukraine, which came into effect a few weeks later after the violent overthrow of the democratically elected Yanukovych government. On that call, Nuland says she needs to get approval from Biden and Jake Sullivan as national security advisor for this new Ukrainian government that she's picking. So she basically is saying that Biden is the boss. As an aside, three months after that, Hunter Biden is appointed to the board of Burisma. Do you believe that the appointment was made for any other reason than Biden calling the shots on Ukraine?

The US has been heavily involved in Ukraine since (before) 2014 - on overthrowing Yanukovich, on picking the next government, on setting policy, on saying Ukraine should be part of NATO at the Bucharest summit in 2008 without a plan on laying out exactly how, and when, and how. What exactly did that accomplish? Putin is responsible for this war, but did our half-hazardous courting contribute to his aggression? If Russia was picking the government of Canada (Mexico), courting them to become members of the Warsaw Pact, don't you think the US might get just a bit nervous. Of course not, we'd have been totally cool - I mean we did obliterate Iraq over no WMD and no links to 9/11 after all.

And then we are constantly being misled by the media. Just a few months ago Petraeus and Ben Hodges were predicting a swift and successful Ukrainian counteroffensive, with plans to march across the Azov and cut off the Russian forces. However, the losses have been staggering, and it has turned into a disaster. The talking heads and media's enthusiastic support seems to serve the purpose of expediting appropriation bills. We've spent $115 billion on Ukraine, benefiting companies like Lockheed, Boeing, Raytheon, Northrop etc while we've run out of ammunition and artillery shells* to support the effort. Washington's true interests may not align with freedom, liberty, and democracy in Ukraine; instead, it seems we are engaged in a proxy war with Russia, willing to fight until the last Ukrainian. This is a devastating conflict where innocent civilians are getting obliterated.

*How corrupt does the Pentagon have to be to receive an $880 billion annual budget, yet not provide healthcare or paid leave for service members and still run out of ammunition? What are they actually spending the money on?

All near verbatim Russian talking points.
 
I am against war. My empathy lies with the civilians that are being used as cannon fodder in this proxy war.

There is a famous phone call that was leaked back in 2014, where our deputy secretary of state, Victoria Nuland, is on tape picking the new government of Ukraine, which came into effect a few weeks later after the violent overthrow of the democratically elected Yanukovych government. On that call, Nuland says she needs to get approval from Biden and Jake Sullivan as national security advisor for this new Ukrainian government that she's picking. So she basically is saying that Biden is the boss. As an aside, three months after that, Hunter Biden is appointed to the board of Burisma. Do you believe that the appointment was made for any other reason than Biden calling the shots on Ukraine?

The US has been heavily involved in Ukraine since (before) 2014 - on overthrowing Yanukovich, on picking the next government, on setting policy, on saying Ukraine should be part of NATO at the Bucharest summit in 2008 without a plan on laying out exactly how, and when, and how. What exactly did that accomplish? Putin is responsible for this war, but did our half-hazardous courting contribute to his aggression? If Russia was picking the government of Canada (Mexico), courting them to become members of the Warsaw Pact, don't you think the US might get just a bit nervous. Of course not, we'd have been totally cool - I mean we did obliterate Iraq over no WMD and no links to 9/11 after all.

And then we are constantly being misled by the media. Just a few months ago Petraeus and Ben Hodges were predicting a swift and successful Ukrainian counteroffensive, with plans to march across the Azov and cut off the Russian forces. However, the losses have been staggering, and it has turned into a disaster. The talking heads and media's enthusiastic support seems to serve the purpose of expediting appropriation bills. We've spent $115 billion on Ukraine, benefiting companies like Lockheed, Boeing, Raytheon, Northrop etc while we've run out of ammunition and artillery shells* to support the effort. Washington's true interests may not align with freedom, liberty, and democracy in Ukraine; instead, it seems we are engaged in a proxy war with Russia, willing to fight until the last Ukrainian. This is a devastating conflict where innocent civilians are getting obliterated.

*How corrupt does the Pentagon have to be to receive an $880 billion annual budget, yet not provide healthcare or paid leave for service members and still run out of ammunition? What are they actually spending the money on?

It's funny how absolutely every take supporting the proxy war, NATO expansion, Russia's hand forced etc. basically denies any agency from ukranian people, particularly in the last 10 years. Particularly weird specially considering they are -understandably- united against the invasion, supporting their president and rejecting any outcome other than a victory that secures their territories and independence from the invader. More than any other country willing to negotiate, including -of course- the US.

One would think that people supporting this kind of theories would have, I don't know, adjusted their opinions and beliefs in the last 18 months. I know I have; not that I supported this, but before the war I honestly thought the public opinion in Ukraine was more divided towards the russians and that that would eventually be their army's doom. Luckily I was wrong then.
 
It's funny how absolutely every take supporting the proxy war, NATO expansion, Russia's hand forced etc. basically denies any agency from ukranian people, particularly in the last 10 years. Particularly weird specially considering they are -understandably- united against the invasion, supporting their president and rejecting any outcome other than a victory that secures their territories and independence from the invader. More than any other country willing to negotiate, including -of course- the US.

One would think that people supporting this kind of theories would have, I don't know, adjusted their opinions and beliefs in the last 18 months. I know I have; not that I supported this, but before the war I honestly thought the public opinion in Ukraine was more divided towards the russians and that that would eventually be their army's doom. Luckily I was wrong then.

Being constantly bombed to shit by an invading army who also do lovely things like steal and brainwash your children does tend to focus the mind.
 
*How corrupt does the Pentagon have to be to receive an $880 billion annual budget, yet not provide healthcare or paid leave for service members and still run out of ammunition? What are they actually spending the money on?
Just to answer this, Ukraine focuses on using artillery which is exactly what the US don't prioritize. So it is not surprising that they don't have massive stocks of this kind of ammunition.
 
But of course - every opinion that doesn't toe the party line comes from Moscow.

;-)

Funny how all the original thinkers think the same thing though...I think your take is actually quite interesting and worthy by the way, just thoroughly wrong. Russia invading Ukraine isn't a US conspiracy, it's a Russian conspiracy. Obviously there will have been some meddling over the years in Ukrainian politics, largely from Russia of course, but that doesn't mean none of their decisions are there own.
 
It's funny how absolutely every take supporting the proxy war, NATO expansion, Russia's hand forced etc. basically denies any agency from ukranian people, particularly in the last 10 years. Particularly weird specially considering they are -understandably- united against the invasion, supporting their president and rejecting any outcome other than a victory that secures their territories and independence from the invader. More than any other country willing to negotiate, including -of course- the US.

One would think that people supporting this kind of theories would have, I don't know, adjusted their opinions and beliefs in the last 18 months. I know I have; not that I supported this, but before the war I honestly thought the public opinion in Ukraine was more divided towards the russians and that that would eventually be their army's doom. Luckily I was wrong then.

I don’t think this war was inevitable. There are no fundamental territorial or ethnic conflicts between Russia and Ukraine that are so significant that they would inevitably have led to war. This isn’t a fight over resources, either. That is why this war was avoidable and a negotiated solution was achievable.

Once the war kicks on then the calculus changes, positions harden and diplomatic solutions available before Feb 2022, are no longer on the table. I don't think a neutral Ukraine is a realistic option, simply because this would no longer be accepted by a large majority of the population in Ukraine.
 
I don’t think this war was inevitable. There are no fundamental territorial or ethnic conflicts between Russia and Ukraine that are so significant that they would inevitably have led to war. This isn’t a fight over resources, either. That is why this war was avoidable and a negotiated solution was achievable.

Once the war kicks on then the calculus changes, positions harden and diplomatic solutions available before Feb 2022, are no longer on the table. I don't think a neutral Ukraine is a realistic option, simply because this would no longer be accepted by a large majority of the population in Ukraine.
What do you think Ukraine should concede in a diplomatic deal with Russia?

Donbas & Crimea? Do you believe Russia would be willing to leave Kherson & Zaporizhia regions?
 
I don’t think this war was inevitable. There are no fundamental territorial or ethnic conflicts between Russia and Ukraine that are so significant that they would inevitably have led to war. This isn’t a fight over resources, either.
Except it is. Various ore deposits and natural gas in Donbas and the Black Sea would have allowed Ukraine to further focus on the West and even (partially) replace Russia as a source for resources for the EU. This definitely was a danger for Russias geopolitical influence and income sources. So exactly those areas they are holding on to while retreating from the in that sense boring area in northern Ukraine around Kyiv.

And the existence of Ukraine itself is a problem for Russian nationalism, as Ukraine is the historic heart of Russia. Not incorporating it into Russia is a failure for them. And in that sense there is an ethnic conflict. Russian nationalists usually wouldn't oppose if an Ukrainian claims to be Russian and there would be no ethnic problem, but if they claim to be Ukrainian then they claim Russia to be smaller than the Russians would like to be.
 
Funny how all the original thinkers think the same thing though...I think your take is actually quite interesting and worthy by the way, just thoroughly wrong. Russia invading Ukraine isn't a US conspiracy, it's a Russian conspiracy. Obviously there will have been some meddling over the years in Ukrainian politics, largely from Russia of course, but that doesn't mean none of their decisions are there own.

I think Putin's original goal wasn't to invade the country or take territory - apart from Crimea which Russia already controlled. I think Putin's goal was to restore Moscow's total control over Kyiv - and of course that meant replacing Zelenskyy with a Russian puppet government. After this war, that's not an attainable option because there won't be a pro-Russian government in Kyiv without Ukrainians rising up in the streets. Putin's war goals have probably shifted to - how can I get out of this war while still claiming victory. He will try to hold on to some territory which he can sell domestically as a victory. Maybe try to get political concessions. But he's lost influence over Kyiv forever, and Ukraine's neutrality is not an option.

I also think there is no consensus at all in the West about the goal of the war. I suppose Ukraine shouldn't lose is the broad goal but what that actually means in economic, political and military terms no one seems to agree. Even Biden, Milley and Lloyd Austin seem to diverge, let alone the various European / NATO countries.

Anyways - my sad prediction is that this will last a few more years which is horrific.
 
are we effectively in WWIII?

Often termed as the war between Ukraine and Russia but so many countries appear to be involved. Just reading a few pages in this thread alone and there is apparent influence from Britain, France, Germany. US, China, North Korea, India, UAE
 
What do you think Ukraine should concede in a diplomatic deal with Russia?

Donbas & Crimea? Do you believe Russia would be willing to leave Kherson & Zaporizhia regions?

This is a weird question. You're asking me to imagine the most simplistic, barebones trade-offs, but actual negotiations are messy complex, specific and involve creativity, choreography, third party roles etc

Here's a better article regarding a potential end to the Russian war in Ukraine is worth reading.
 

An American politician in an op-ed in an American newspaper, speaking to the American voters, makes the point that Americans aren't being killed. Not really a big shock, is it?

Also, weird how these parts didn't make into the tweet. I'm sure you read the full thing before concluding "Ukrainian lives do not matter", though.

Through 18 months of brutal bleeding and death on the battlefield, he has sustained resolve and resilience — in himself and his beloved people.

[...]

What Zelenskyy needs to repel Putin and stop his atrocities is the same brand of resolve and resilience from America and our allies.

[...]

Ukraine also needs support for free and fair elections no later than mid-2024.

[...]

Drones now made in Russia and used to brutalize Ukrainian civilians and troops could not be manufactured without parts and components from unscrupulous companies evading sanctions. A crackdown on such violations is long overdue.

[...]

As the three of us laid flowers against the wall of heroes, images of the fallen in St. Michael’s Square, we were reminded of the devastating costs of war — and of freedom.
 
Who let Tucker Carlson in this thread?

Love the 'I'm against the war' stuff from this camp.

Poor Russia, they just want peace while invading Ukraine and evil Ukrainians wont hear about it, they just want to wage war instead of just giving up and make peace.
 
Who let Tucker Carlson in this thread?

Love the 'I'm against the war' stuff from this camp.

Poor Russia, they just want peace while invading Ukraine and evil Ukrainians wont hear about it, they just want to wage war instead of just giving up and make peace.
I also love the "let's end the suffering of Ukrainians" argument. These guys are so transparant in that they want Ukraine to just shut up and give up.

As if the Ukrainians don't realize how hard the war is on them. They themselves make the choice to fight back, we didn't make that choice for them. Ukrainians know very well the sacrifices they're making to hold off Russia.
 
Let's see for how long Russia can keep their planes in the sky. The aviation sector is probably the most difficult to circumvent the sanctions.
 
Who let Tucker Carlson in this thread?

Love the 'I'm against the war' stuff from this camp.

Poor Russia, they just want peace while invading Ukraine and evil Ukrainians wont hear about it, they just want to wage war instead of just giving up and make peace.

Yeah they all spout Russian propaganda and their solution almost always seems to be just let Russia win.

Strange that.
 
Let's see for how long Russia can keep their planes in the sky. The aviation sector is probably the most difficult to circumvent the sanctions.

Great stuff by the pilots and a testament to the a320's undercarriage. I absolutely hope for a decisive Ukranian win but the prospect of flying sanctioned airliners without spare parts must be worrying for the general civil population (not that I disapprove of the sanctions).
 
Yeah they all spout Russian propaganda and their solution almost always seems to be just let Russia win.

Strange that.
I'm glad I have him on ignore. From time to time, if a new Russian propaganda parrot appears and starts talking about "peace", send him Meloni's speech. She absolutely nailed it in my opinion. I'm sorry for the music, but I didn't find another video.
 
I'm glad I have him on ignore. From time to time, if a new Russian propaganda parrot appears and starts talking about "peace", send him Meloni's speech. She absolutely nailed it in my opinion. I'm sorry for the music, but I didn't find another video.

:confused:


I'm confused, she suddenly has a problem with addressing complex issues with slogans? I had been under the impression that was her own forte...