Brexit and Financial Markets

Gambit said:
Shell, BP, Glaxo, Unilever, Brent, JCB, Ineos, Mclaren Group ( they make alot more than just cars) Rolls Royce... we have lots we sell, we just don't have a single recognised industry that you can put up and say oh yeah that's what we sell, in fact with us still haveing full access to Europe at the moment we can maybe start actually exporting at a higher percentage.
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And one reason for them being in the UK is because they had access to major markets through the EU.. Most businesses will move to Europe where they still have that.. Banks, car makers and others that need the free trade.

You can take it from us here in Iceland lowering the value of the currency might be good for export but believe me when I tell you everything you need in your day to day life gets really expensive. That is if you still have a job. Wouldn´t recommend it really. Loans and payments on your houses and cars doubling. Prices in the supermarket reaching an all time high, and when the prices go to that level they will never go back to the level they were before. A normal family car here in Iceland that used to cost 1.500.000 - 2.000.000 ISK (Icelandic Krona) before the 2008 crash went to 4.000.000 - 6.000.000 ISK while you still got the same amount in your paycheck.

What save us in retrospect was that we had the EEA and could still export our products to Europe and other natural resources (electricity and hot water for house heating became really valuable). Even if things are getting better we are still not where we were before.. Not having a lot of things that other people need and no free access to other markets might turn out to be really hard. But the people who will feel it the most are the ones that vote for the Brexit..
 
Edgar Allan Pillow said:
It's common information anyway.



I don't get this. What about British banks? Why's he telling people to move money out of Europe and into UK? :rolleyes:
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Some 'experts' believe that it is the EU that is now doomed, whilst the UK will suffer but not that badly.

http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/20...nion&pgtype=Blogs&region=Body&_r=1#more-39816

So calm down about the short-run macroeconomics; grieve for Europe, but you should have been doing that already; worry about Britain.
 
There's a good chance I'm gonna lose my job over all this down to this monumentally stupid decision.

fecks sake.
 
Snowjoe said:
There's a good chance I'm gonna lose my job over all this down to this monumentally stupid decision.

fecks sake.
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There is still hope I believe. Boris will try to wriggle out of this somehow. Who wants to go down in history as the leader who brought down the EU and broke up the UK?
 
Classical Mechanic said:
There is still hope I believe. Boris will try to wriggle out of this somehow. Who wants to go down in history as the leader who brought down the EU and broke up the UK?
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I'm being optimistic that they will manage to get out of it, but we need stability fast because we can't afford for the floor to have come out of the market for too long.

All I know is I'm starting my job hunt tonight.
 
Genuine question and asking for some insight.

I work in the building engineering consultancy industry. Got an offer to transfer to Cardiff to work (tried London but didn't get any news back). It is a good opportunity for me, trying another working culture and environment and everything. But now with Brexit looming, how hard will the industry be hit? I just know that our company's UK division did really well last year and Asia is a bit rocky at the moment but it isnt that bad (at least for my company).

So yeah, wondering if anyone knows about the construction industry much in the UK and how it might be affected.
 
Grinner said:
Why?
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Our work is more high end, less jobs but high money. If the housing/construction market and financial markets keep dropping our clients will just stop spending money on the types of things we do and there will be no work. We've already had a couple put a hold on things because their pots of money aren't looking like they're gonna go as far as they were a few weeks ago.
 
Snowjoe said:
Our work is more high end, less jobs but high money. If the housing/construction market and financial markets keep dropping our clients will just stop spending money on the types of things we do and there will be no work. We've already had a couple put a hold on things because their pots of money aren't looking like they're gonna go as far as they were a few weeks ago.
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I always thought the high-end stuff was more able to ride these sorts of things. If your clientele was mostly middle-class or lower then I'd be worried.
 
Grinner said:
I always thought the high-end stuff was more able to ride these sorts of things. If your clientele was mostly middle-class or lower then I'd be worried.
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We've always found that the purse strings of the really rich tend to tighten at these times, they just have so much money tied up in their property and shares that they get a bit twitchy until things settle again, so just hoping it calms soon. Either that or the Russian oil barons keep us afloat.
 
Flames73 said:
Genuine question and asking for some insight.

I work in the building engineering consultancy industry. Got an offer to transfer to Cardiff to work (tried London but didn't get any news back). It is a good opportunity for me, trying another working culture and environment and everything. But now with Brexit looming, how hard will the industry be hit? I just know that our company's UK division did really well last year and Asia is a bit rocky at the moment but it isnt that bad (at least for my company).

So yeah, wondering if anyone knows about the construction industry much in the UK and how it might be affected.
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https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/may/13/uk-construction-sector-suffers-sharp-slowdown-ons

It has been slowing all year. Some people blame Brexit whilst other think that it would have slowed anyway.
 
Classical Mechanic said:
No. He is estimating that Britain is facing hard times but that the EU is doomed.

You could take from that that having money in EU based banks could be quite risky about now.
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As far as I can see in his blog he's citing political and not financial reasons for his EU prediction. I don't think anyone doubts that this is a severe crisis for the project, but I don't think its fate is sealed one way or the other just yet.

And I'm not sure if that would even be a good thing for Britain, I mean first your economy takes a hit over Brexit and then an EU/Euro collapse would probably deliver global turmoil while you're still weakened.
 
do.ob said:
As far as I can see in his blog he's citing political and not financial reasons for his EU prediction. I don't think anyone doubts that this is a severe crisis for the project, but I don't think its fate is sealed one way or the other just yet.

And I'm not sure if that would even be a good thing for Britain, I mean first your economy takes a hit over Brexit and then an EU/Euro collapse would probably deliver global turmoil while you're still weakened.
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So calm down about the short-run macroeconomics; grieve for Europe, but you should have been doing that already; worry about Britain.

He is saying that the EU is in a lot more trouble than Britain, contrary to a lot of common opinion on here and in the EU especially.
 
Our banks are heading towards another bailout situation here :(
 
Classical Mechanic said:
So calm down about the short-run macroeconomics; grieve for Europe, but you should have been doing that already; worry about Britain.

He is saying that the EU is in a lot more trouble than Britain, contrary to a lot of common opinion on here and in the EU especially.
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He's not comparing the magnitude of the problems. I think he uses the word grieve because he already thought Europe was screwed anyway (the Eurozone as a failed project - he has been saying it for ages). He's not trying to guess who will suffer more in relative terms.
 
Arruda said:
He's not comparing the magnitude of the problems. I think he uses the word grieve because he already thought Europe was screwed anyway (the Eurozone as a failed project - he has been saying it for ages). He's not trying to guess who will suffer more in relative terms.
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That quote is just his summary and I do think the strict definitions of the word are key to communicating the tone of his piece, that is what good writers do. In Anglo countries 'grieve' is a word most commonly used to describe the emotional state when someone or something you care for has died. Although it is not strict economic comparison between the two, he says that the EU is worse off because of the social/political problems and its weak economy/failing currency whereas Britain is facing serious social and political issues but the economic crisis is being overstated.

http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2016/06/24/brexit-the-morning-after/?module=BlogPost-ReadMore&version=Blog Main&action=Click&contentCollection=Opinion&pgtype=Blogs&region=Body&_r=2#more-39816

I mean, is it even a year since the crisis in Greece? Picking up the morning papers and reading headlines like '7 Days to Save the Eurozone', 'Europe on verge of Collapse'. In my opinion the EU is a castle made on sand because of the Euro. I'm not sure why anyone would have more faith in its future than that of Britain post Brexit.

@do.ob

I agree. No one knows how this will all play out, not even Krugman. One thing we all know is that it is a terrible mess.
 
Just saw that. Should be another massive down day tomorrow then.
 
Xeno said:
Surprised it took so long. What does that mean in terms of interest payments?
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Nothing. The cost of British debt is the lowest it's been since 1703 and that's unlikely to change much in the immediate future. Credit rating downgrades don't automatically translate into increased borrowing costs. Sometimes the reverse happens: a reduced credit rating is followed by lower borrowing costs.
 
My Taylor Wimpey shares are down about 40% so far.

Across my ISA I have so far lost about 11%, and that isn't looking against another currency (since about 35% of my holdings is cash).


Also, I am in the process of buying a new build house and there is now a very real chance that the value will go down after he purchase.
 
I invested last year's ISA allowance into the FTSE 250 when I decided to try the shares route, and went in at the right time in February when the index was down, so it's been nothing but profit on that one since then. As I've constructed my portfolio around the 250, the gains there held things up as I introduced the other elements to add diversification. This morning, the 250 gains since February have dropped big time, and will be completely gone and into a loss in the space of two or three days - you have to laugh :mad:

Now it's the other elements of my portfolio that are holding things up, but that won't be enough to carry the 250 if the numbers keep heading south. Of course I'm a long-term investor with this portfolio, but I still can't help checking the numbers every damn morning :nervous:
 
Antisocial said:
I invested last year's ISA allowance into the FTSE 250 when I decided to try the shares route, and went in at the right time in February when the index was down, so it's been nothing but profit on that one since then. As I've constructed my portfolio around the 250, the gains there held things up as I introduced the other elements to add diversification. This morning, the 250 gains since February have dropped big time, and will be completely gone and into a loss in the space of two or three days - you have to laugh :mad:

Now it's the other elements of my portfolio that are holding things up, but that won't be enough to carry the 250 if the numbers keep heading south. Of course I'm a long-term investor with this portfolio, but I still can't help checking the numbers every damn morning :nervous:
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I started a stocks and shares ISA last year and invested in managed funds but got rid of my UK investments a month ago. My portfolio has been up and down but is now at the highest yield it has been at, mostly due to having a third of my money in an Asian fund. Seems the Nikkei is the only major market bucking the trend.
 
Classical Mechanic said:
I started a stocks and shares ISA last year and invested in managed funds but got rid of my UK investments a month ago. My portfolio has been up and down but is now at the highest yield it has been at, mostly due to having a third of my money in an Asian fund. Seems the Nikkei is the only major market bucking the trend.
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Flight to safety
 
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