May? They absolutely will suffer.
Many small businesses will also be royally buttfecked by the change in VAT laws.
Brexit and Financial Markets
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In the latest episode of the United Hour Podcast, Nik (@Rood) is joined by CEO Duncan Drasdo and Financial Director Andy Green from the Manchester United Supporters Trust for a special episode on all things behind the scenes at Old Trafford including a brief history of MUST and their aims today, views on INEOS and Sir Jim Ratcliffe so far, and the Old Trafford regeneration.
Many small businesses will also be royally buttfecked by the change in VAT laws.
I dont think anyone here expects Brexit to be great for the uk overall, but there might at least be a slight boost for UK businesses exporting their wares. How long it lasts is anyone's guess.
Tell us more.
The context is some desperate straw grabbing. Yes it will help exporters, but whether that will be enough to offset the effects of a weak pound on the general public we'll have to see. I doubt there are many exporters who only export, I suspect most of their revenue is domestic and that market is crashing
It's not my area of expertise so I can't remember the specifics, but being part of the EU makes VAT much more simple for imports and exports within the bloc. Companies importing from the EU won't be able to reclaim the input tax, making their cost of sales a lot higher.
Reluctantly I'm in the remain camp, mainly because of where the global economy is right now, and not wanting another global recession. I just don't like the whole abuse of anyone who dares to disagree with the remain campaign, it comes across as bullying, and that has been played out on social media. I've challenged some of the remain philosophies, and been abused myself, no surprise.
Beyond me sorry Nick, but I'll keep an eye out for any announcements.
But per your post you were being sarcastic about Remainers being financial experts.... in reality obviously not everyone is a financial expert, some of us know a lot more than others but... just a modicum of common sense would tell anyone that Brexit would be a financial disaster for the UK if they had not been blinded by the other lies.
People still even now don't realise that this is only the beginning, the UK are still in the EU, when and if they do actually leave this current fiasco is only a taster
In 1967 the pound devalued against the dollar by 17% which was a disaster at the time . It has lost 23% in 9 months against the supposedly crumbling Euro and it still hasn't left the EU.
This is why Remainers are so upset at Brexiters, a lot of whom still think it was a good decision.
I seem to recall @Chorley1974 said he voted remain in the end. I also recall you said you didn't bother to vote despite being able to? Does that mean that you, by your own words above, are partly responsible for the mess you say the UK is now in?
I gave my reasons why I didn't vote, that I no longer and never again will live in the UK, but been through all this a hundred times but no-one ever wants to take independent advice
Im not straw grabbing, i voted remain. I was just pointing out that some businesses will be happy with the weak sterling, if nothing else.
Everyone is so jumpy in his thread.
you prove my point with this, although more politely put than most
Which point?
Because our exports and imports are (relatively) in check at the moment, we run a trade deficit but only about the £30bn mark I think which isn't so terrible, the thing that forms the body of our balance of payments deficit are our net transfers abroad and negative net income, which create a deficit against which we have borrowed heavily to counterbalance and debts our weakened economy will just not be able to handle any more. It's even harder to borrow our way out of borrowing because of our weakened credit rating.
Selling a few extra Creme Eggs to Walmart isn't going to save us.
It's extremely patronising to say the least, you vote leave and you are stupid, don't have common sense etc. The second paragraph is perhaps worse in terms of being patronising. People don't realise because you know best eh?
Constructing an argument could be... "I believe that X will happen as a result of Y etc"
just a modicum of common sense would tell anyone that Brexit would be a financial disaster for the UK if they had not been blinded by the other lies.
People still even now don't realise that this is only the beginning, the UK are still in the EU, when and if they do actually leave this current fiasco is only a taster
All those points were explained at length by me and dozens of other posters but we were all supposed to be scaremongering in the original thread if you remember. Now what was forecast has happened, and the next forecast is that the worst is yet to come -no we weren't scaremongering , this is real life and after spending the last 31 years in international trade and finance i would hope that I have some idea of what I'm talking about.
The patronising tone continues, I know best etc etc.
I have enough skin in the game myself, which is the point you will tell my how stupid I am..... circle continues
But you said you voted Remain so why are you stupid,.Why didn't people listen to the experts, because they were lied to by all those who have jumped ship who brainwashed them into believing the Remainers were scaremongering or they have an agenda against immigrants or all the rest of the lies they gullibly swallowed
So lets take a summary
The economy is in dire straits as predicted
The Uk still hasn't left the EU and will not leave until 2019 at the earliest as the economy continues to tank.
Immigration will probably not change and the EU law argument was on the whole nonsensical all along
So what has been achieved and at what cost - and Brexiters still think they did the right thing
When one thing happens that hasn't been predicted , please tell me when I'm wrong
lol are you a troll/wum? Is the economy in dire straits? What do you mean by the economy beginning to tank? The £ has ditched but it's not like we haven't had adverse rates in the last 50 yrs, the currency markets like the stock markets are likely to bounce.
You know feck all about immigration if you think once brexit it won't change.
Care to elaborate? I'm intrigued.
control of borders
That's not elaborating.
I'm not sure what can be simpler to understand, you obviously have a point, please share.
It's pretty simple. We won't be controlling our borders because we won't be getting a deal without free movement.
Jeremy Corbyn: "The very principle of a single market across Europe is the free movement of people"
I was interested because I thought you knew more than you let on.
Glad for this insight, we aren't Norway though
@Chorley1974 is clearly a specific EU expert and a psychic as he's already he's seen the deal the UK have gotten from the EU. The Leave team clearly didn't have a plan but he knew we would get control of our borders regardless.
Jesus Christ. What RedSky said is completely true, what's Norway got to do with this? We're the ones who chose to leave, we'll be the ones who are in a worse negotiating position.
If it's non-negotiable, Britain will clearly get control of its borders. Other countries have trading relationships with the EU without allowing freedom of movement for EU citizens.
Well duh! as Chorley would put it. It's a big "If" though and clearly we're not sure what we want as things stand. We could go down the route of an FTA but a number of significant businesses and the City would prefer to remain in the single market and have free movement.
Not necessarily. The exporters too have to rely on the imports to manufacture their products. If the import intensity of the exports is high enough, the rise in prices of imports will be more than enough to offset the advantages rising out of fall in the value of pound. Also as @Will Absolute has said, if the elasticity of imports are not very high (take oil or food for instance), then it will significantly deteriorate the BoP, the opposite would be the case for exports. I am sure there are studies which have looked at the J-curve effects of pound devaluation and the time lag for potential improvement in the BoP (if any) but most studies elsewhere show that the time period it takes would be anywhere between 3-5 years which is more than enough to cause significant damage to the rest of the UK economy, especially if it has a tendency to consistently run in BoP deficits. A positive I can see here is that service exports can be potentially cheaper (a sector in which UK already enjoys significant comparative advantage). So if the pound devaluates enough, banks can perhaps be persuaded to remain in London, but then I am not a fan of service sector anyway, so there's that.
I think that the EU was very clear on the point that no freedom of movement = no British access to the single market. It can't afford having countries cherry picking which deals it want
I take it you get your Financial Times delivered early? If not you sure know your stuff because I've just read it and that's pretty much what it says. Let's just hope for everybody's sake that wherever it says unpredictable it turns out to be unpredictably good.
I bought my first shares at opening today, as opposed to funds, since Thatcher's disgraceful privatisation sales.
Bovis the housebuilders, and no, it wasn't in mistake for Hovis the breadmakers.
If I wasn't on a train with shitty wifi i'd be checking the price every 5 minutes!
We cant have the EU cherry picking what it wants, which is why we're out.
Sounds to me like the next Alex Salmond
Indeed, my crystal ball is about as clear as Flwless'.
The UK pays 8 billion pound per year into running the EU and runs a trade deficit of 68 billion pounds per year for the free trade access. I voted to remain because the dislocation in trade and financial markets wasn't worth the risk of calling the bluff on this statement often repeated by EU supporters but now that we have voted to leave we will see.
Firstly the EU is not of one mind about how to deal with the UK post the Brexit vote their is no actual EU position just a statement about how/when negotiations start and even that is proving contentious . As predicted the consequences to the EU are only now dawning on the body politic. Yes some parties particularly those who can make no positive case for EU membership other than if you leave we will hurt you are vocal because they are butt hurt about the vote. This stance is understandable before you enter negotiations with another party but is I think unsustainable within those negotiations. Taking 8 billion per year to make 68 billion per year from trade with the UK is a massive cherry the EU picks from the UK not the other way around.
Secondly it might be that free right to settle( the contentious part of free movement) which I personally don't give a shit about but others inside the UK seem to be intransigent about preventing, eventually gets accepted in some deal on trade but I doubt it. Both candidates for PM are pretty much tied to not allowing it given their statements in the conservative party leadership contest and it is becoming entrenched in the thinking about red lines in the future negotiations because the accusation of betrayal of the referendum vote will destroy the PM's standing if it is given up.
Whatever people think about the Brexit vote the best interests of the countries in the EU and the UK is to have a close trading relationship and close co-operation in many areas currently dealt with within the EU that need replicating post Brexit, as much for the EU's sake as for the UK's. This deal is going to set the tone of relations for the next 40 years. Is it really worth making the UK look at ways of fecking the EU as retribution for the EU's retribution because the UK wants to leave the EU? Do we all want to start down that road? Hopefully not as wiser calmer heads prevail in the end.
Nah mate. I live in Nepal.
Its not retribution but survival. The EU will have to act tough because its very survival depends in giving the UK a deal which puts them into a worse position then they are now. If the UK gets a good deal then many countries will start wondering why they are in the EU in the first place. Freedom of movement in particular is a hot argument not just for the UK but to many other nations. Basically, I've yet to meet an EU member country (whose not Eastern European) whose thrilled with the freedom of movement of the Eastern European workers especially the ROM (whose got an unfair reputation in Europe). Germany believes in freedom of movement and many countries (not just Eastern Europeans but Italy, Spain and co) will make sure to defend that right as it allows their youths to find work and send money home. In few words, freedom of movement is a red line even for the EU countries.
Ultimately there's advantages and disadvantages to everything. If the UK leave the single market then those billions will hurt. Germany will have to pay more but its not as if Germany will tank that alone. Other countries will have to step up, including countries who till now were not net contributors yet and the budget will have to be trimmed (rumours say 10%). Having said that, its not all gloom and doom especially for Germany. Germany will get rid off a hostile competitor and will become the leader of Europe, there will be pressure for trade deals to be done quickly and if a deal is done correctly there may be an exodus of the financial companies from London to Frankfurt/Paris.
TBH I can see the UK joining the EEA which would mean massive financial contribution into the EU and freedom of movement of people but which will safeguard their lucrative financial services. No wonder why most of the leaders of the leaver camps have quit, they had refused to join the leadership race or have simply been voted out. Eventually the British voter will forget the promise of control just as it had forgotten the promise of immediate activation of article 50 and the 350m a week spent on the NHS and life will return to normality. Alternatively either a second referendum will occur in few months/years which will give the British citizens a choice between EU membership and the 'deal' Theresa have thrashed with the EU or politicians will simply delay this argument till next elections (with evident consequences over the economy) only for them to put in their mandate their allegiance towards Brexit/remaining. Lets face it, not even the leaders in the leaver camp really wanted to leave the EU. They just wanted Cameron's flashy seat
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