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Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?

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I do get the impression that a fair amount of people think the UK have actually already left the EU.

It was forecast that the Pound would drop to €1.20 or lower after the vote, currently around €1.16, a drop of around 10% from just before the vote (and around 20% from last November)

As a lot of people expected Article 50 to be triggered shortly after the vote the real economic downturn was expected to be sooner.
Since Article 50 doesn't look like being triggered until 2017 at the very earliest the real economic affect will not be felt for some time.

Expecting even more delays next year when the politicians in charge of Brexit realise what a difficult task it is going to be, the triggering of Article 50 could be a lot longer than that.

I doubt if the UK would have left by 2020 and wouldn't be surprised it wasn't until 2025. What I'm actually expecting is that the UK will partially leave and still have the same or similar trade deals in place, the same freedom of movement and the same laws in ten years time, the only difference being that they won't have a vote in the EU parliament.

Possibly businesses and investors may think on similar lines, wait and see but in the meantime there is so much uncertainty.
 
Stanley Road said:
Wishful thinking Paul

I wonder how the EU project will pan out when Merkel and Hollande are gone
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Not wishful thinking, don't care any more, but it wouldn't surprise me how it panned out.

For France, I don't think much will change, more Sarkozy or Hollande or Juppé, as you know although I like being part of the EU, France is still a separate country like the UK is. Despite its faults the life in France suits me far better than the UK and is so different , a different view to some who think the EU is the same no matter which country you live in.

Not only Merkel but Obama too , the whole world be changing over the next few years, more concerned about the possible changes in the US

Hope the Pound keeps weakening, the furniture I've ordered gets cheaper by the day.
 
Paul the Wolf said:
I do get the impression that a fair amount of people think the UK have actually already left the EU.

It was forecast that the Pound would drop to €1.20 or lower after the vote, currently around €1.16, a drop of around 10% from just before the vote (and around 20% from last November)

As a lot of people expected Article 50 to be triggered shortly after the vote the real economic downturn was expected to be sooner.
Since Article 50 doesn't look like being triggered until 2017 at the very earliest the real economic affect will not be felt for some time.

Expecting even more delays next year when the politicians in charge of Brexit realise what a difficult task it is going to be, the triggering of Article 50 could be a lot longer than that.

I doubt if the UK would have left by 2020 and wouldn't be surprised it wasn't until 2025. What I'm actually expecting is that the UK will partially leave and still have the same or similar trade deals in place, the same freedom of movement and the same laws in ten years time, the only difference being that they won't have a vote in the EU parliament.

Possibly businesses and investors may think on similar lines, wait and see but in the meantime there is so much uncertainty.
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The triggering of Article 50 is just the firing of the starting gun for negotiations; I don't think its effects will be too dramatic in itself. According to Donald Tusk, he was informed by the British that it will happen in January or February. But the rules specify a 2 year deadline to complete the talks before Britain ceases automatically to be a member of the EU; so it's hard to see how it can drag on till 2020 or 2025.

Of course the EU have never worried about breaking their own rules. But in this case, the other EU states seem to want to pull the tooth and move on.
 
Will Absolute said:
The triggering of Article 50 is just the firing of the starting gun for negotiations; I don't think its effects will be too dramatic in itself. According to Donald Tusk, he was informed by the British that it will happen in January or February. But the rules specify a 2 year deadline to complete the talks before Britain ceases automatically to be a member of the EU; so it's hard to see how it can drag on till 2020 or 2025.

Of course the EU have never worried about breaking their own rules. But in this case, the other EU states seem to want to pull the tooth and move on.
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For sure it is supposed to be a 2 year deadline but have a feeling that the UK politicians want to prepare themselves as much as possible before triggering it and that may be a long time after Jan/Feb, also the 2 years may also become much longer. The rest of the EU certainly want them to trigger it asap so that they are less prepared. Not only that it will take a lot longer than 2 years to sort it out. As it has not happened before (except Greenland which is incomparable) no-one knows how complicated it's going to be thus why I believe it will take much longer, if the UK fully leaves at all.
 
Will Absolute said:
The triggering of Article 50 is just the firing of the starting gun for negotiations; I don't think its effects will be too dramatic in itself. According to Donald Tusk, he was informed by the British that it will happen in January or February. But the rules specify a 2 year deadline to complete the talks before Britain ceases automatically to be a member of the EU; so it's hard to see how it can drag on till 2020 or 2025.
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Unless all members of the eu agree to extend the deadline... which if they are involved in complex negotiations is not impossible... though equally with different political pressures on each of them getting the respective leaders to agree a course of action may be akin to herding cats
 
Stanley Road said:
@Paul the Wolf

What will you do if Le Penn gets in?
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Thankfully doubt she has much chance of succeeding. Ignoring her racist views, she would be hopeless at running the country, has no idea.
However, I don't rate the other candidates too highly either.
As I said we'll have another 5 years of the same, whoever gets in. If Le Pen did get in it wouldn't really affect me anyway personally.
 
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No but it might affect the rest of the eu. we have elections next year and wilders is top of the pops at the moment.
 
Paul the Wolf said:
Thankfully doubt she has much chance of succeeding. Ignoring her racist views, she would be hopeless at running the country, has no idea.
However, I don't rate the other candidates too highly either.
As I said we'll have another 5 years of the same, whoever gets in. If Le Pen did get in it wouldn't really affect me anyway personally.
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It would make you look like I right idiot pontificating about Britain and brexit though, wouldn't it?
 
Paul the Wolf said:
Why??? France aren't leaving the EU anytime soon, they're not that stupid
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Wow you must be really worried that France might actually make her President. She proposes Frexit and all the shite you posted about UKIP and then if France even lets FN into the last round never mind actually voting her into power, we would solve global warming by using your red cheeks as an alternative energy source.
 
Don't Kill Bill said:
Wow you must be really worried that France might actually make her President. She proposes Frexit and all the shite you posted about UKIP and then if France even lets FN into the last round never mind actually voting her into power, we would solve global warming by using your red cheeks as an alternative energy source.
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As I said before she has very little chance of becoming President.
I remember you calling me xenophobic before because I live in France which happens to be the same country as Le Pen lives in; still can't stop chuckling about that one.
So you are a Leaver pretending to have voted Remain so if it all goes wrong no-one can blame you, I get the thread of your narrative. What shite did I post, it was all true as has been shown and will be shown if the UK does eventually leave

If by some vague chance France does vote in Le Pen and even more remotely the French people decide to vote Leave as well, then you can't wait to have a laugh at me because I support the EU, some weird thinking here, especially for someone who voted Remain!!(who keeps championing Brexit) like a couple of other supposed Remain voters on here
 
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Paul the Wolf said:
As I said before she has very little chance of becoming President.
I remember you calling me xenophobic before because I live in France which happens to be the same country as Le Pen lives in; still can't stop chuckling about that one.
So you are a Leaver pretending to have voted Remain so if it all goes wrong no-one can blame you, I get the thread of your narrative. What shite did I post, it was all true as has been shown and will be shown if the UK does eventually leave

If by some vague chance France does vote in Le Pen and even more remotely the French people decide to vote Leave as well, then you can't wait to have a laugh at me because I support the EU, some weird thinking here, especially for someone who voted Remain!!(who keeps championing Brexit) like a couple of other supposed Remain voters on here
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Firstly, I think you said no chance and now you are watering it down.

Second, I called you on how superior you were being pontificating on how racist the UK was while living in France given the support there for FN.

Thirdly, Why wouldn't I pretend to be on the same side of the vote as you unless I was , lets face it there is no gain by association there?

Lastly, I'd be laughing at a man who living in France which then voted in any major way for the UK equivalent of the BNP castigated said former country as racist.

All valid, reasonable points however uncomfortable for you.
 
Don't Kill Bill said:
Firstly, I think you said no chance and now you are watering it down.

Second, I called you on how superior you were being pontificating on how racist the UK was while living in France given the support there for FN.

Thirdly, Why wouldn't I pretend to be on the same side of the vote as you unless I was , lets face it there is no gain by association there?

Lastly, I'd be laughing at a man who living in France which then voted in any major way for the UK equivalent of the BNP castigated said former country as racist.

All valid, reasonable points however uncomfortable for you.
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I said there is little chance, however, having overestimated the intelligence of the average British voter before the Referendum, as did Cameron , anything is possible.
I don't remember calling the whole of the UK as racist.
There are racist people in all countries of the world, in France , in the UK , in Germany or wherever.

People in the UK voted for Brexit for several different reasons or a combination of two or more reasons, one of which was immigration. Some wanted controlled immigration, some wanted to get rid of the immigrants altogether and others various degrees in between. As you believe no-one in the UK who voted for Brexit is remotely racist or that you think you should laugh at me because other french voters vote for the FN, this makes no sense whatsoever.
Your "thirdly"" point, no comprendo, did you vote Remain, yes or no, a simple answer will do.

As the FN currently have 2 seats in the National Assembly out of 577 it would be very difficult to form a government.
If by some wild chance where one opinion poll estimated they might somehow obtain 60 seats at the next election , doesn't seem enough somehow.

If the country did decide to hold a referendum in the future about leaving the EU, I believe everyone will wait to see how things work out for the UK first.
Should the UK become this utopian state then maybe France will follow suit. Should the UK have a different future than what Brexiters are expecting, then it would be unlikely that another country would follow suit.
Apparently it seems that we could all be in for a long wait before we find out
 
devilish said:
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...-despite-brexit-washing-machine-a7332651.html

Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson has said the UK will support Turkey's bid to join the European Union despite voting to leave the bloc.
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good old boris

Mr Johnson also praised Turkey for making his "beautiful" and "very well-functioning" washing machine, in comments aimed at repairing relations between the two nations after he accused the Turkish president of having sex with a goat.
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In May, Mr Johnson won a £1,000 prize for a limerick about President Recep Tayyip Erdogan amid a free speech debate:

The limerick read: "There was a young fellow from Ankara.

Who was a terrific wankerer.

Till he sowed his wild oats.

With the help of a goat.

But he didn't even stop to thankera."
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How can such beautiful and highly intellectual country end up in the hands of the likes of boris, may and big Sam?
 
Massive Spanner said:
Their latest referendum results say otherwise.
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Its a highly intellectual country. The country of a prestigious history, the most beautiful of languages, great culture, absolute superb universities everyone envy (Oxford, Cambridge, University of London etc) and a great economy. Which shocks all those who love this country why such brainfarts are allowed
 
Great universities but they all fail miserably at producing sensible politicians.
 
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devilish said:
Its a highly intellectual country. The country of a prestigious history, the most beautiful of languages, great culture, absolute superb universities everyone envy (Oxford, Cambridge, University of London etc) and a great economy. Which shocks all those who love this country why such brainfarts are allowed
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I thought this was a pretty good debate about some of the reasons why Brexit happened.

 
Stanley Road said:
That's not what the article is about plus we were all lied to that the immediate effect of an exit vote would be plague, locusts and certain death
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Many predicted that Boris would become Prime Minister and he would immediately activate article 50 as he promised (and TBF to him as he wants even now). A hard Brexit would quickly followed and the forecasts were based on that. No one could have predicted the funfare that followed after the referendum.

The forecasts were wrong because nothing happened just yet. The UK is still in the EU

You can't really blame the experts for believing the Brexiters can't you? Even Gove thought that leaving the single market was crazy, while one of the first things Farage did (After resigning) was to quickly pop in the Germany embassy. Time and time again it showed that the UK was totally unprepared for an eventual Brexit win and the forecasts reflected that.
 
devilish said:
Many predicted that Boris would become Prime Minister and he would immediately activate article 50 as he promised (and TBF to him as he wants even now). A hard Brexit would quickly followed and the forecasts were based on that. No one could have predicted the funfare that followed after the referendum.

The forecasts were wrong because nothing happened just yet. The UK is still in the EU

You can't really blame the experts for believing the Brexiters can't you? Even Gove thought that leaving the single market was crazy, while one of the first things Farage did (After resigning) was to quickly pop in the Germany embassy. Time and time again it showed that the UK was totally unprepared for an eventual Brexit win and the forecasts reflected that.
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Read the article again, it says in the first paragraph or so that the expected tsunami from a brexit vote, a vote, an actual event that has happened
 
Stanley Road said:
Read the article again, it says in the first paragraph or so that the expected tsunami from a brexit vote, a vote, an actual event that has happened
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And I answered to that already. People (me included) believed that a brexit vote would quickly translate into a quick activation of article 50. That didn't occur. The uk is still in the eu and its still hesitating in leaving the single market
 
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